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Scott Engel reviews which players are increasing or decreasing in fantasy value heading into the preseason.
Here is this week's preseason report on players who are rising or falling in perceived value, this time based on the average draft position report at Mock Draft Central as of July 23. I'll pinpoint some guys who clearly have become highly-regarded or who have apparently dipped on cheat sheets and draft boards. RISING Marion Barber III, RB, Cowboys: He currently has an ADP of No. 8 overall, going as early as fourth in some drafts. There seems to be a widespread perception that, with the departure of Julius Jones, Barber will be utilized full-time for the most part, leading to a natural increase is overall production. Yet, Barber isn't a guy who will wow defenses with his speed. He could still use a quality complement so he doesn't get overworked, too. Felix Jones should get some significant touches, and while I like Barber myself, I wouldn't put him in my top 10 overall, as I still expect some statistical inconsistency. Laurence Maroney. RB Patriots: I've said it many times that I think this will be a breakthrough year for Maroney, because he has improved as an inside runner, which also means he is going to finish off more scoring drives for New England in 2008. Maroney has an ADP of 19th overall, putting him late in the second round of many drafts, after some initial projections and rankings didn't have him in their top 15 at running back overall. I am right on point with his current ADP.  |
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: It seems like many MDC participants are high on the Dallas Cowboys. Romo has an ADP of 20th overall and has gone as early as the 12th pick. I like Romo, too, but once the top two quarterbacks will be gone by the time you select him, you can wait later than the 20th pick to get a high-quality starter. Drew Brees is a good bet to outperform Romo, and he has an ADP of 31. I can't see going for Romo when so many top WRs are listed behind him in ADP. Players like Larry Fitzgerald and Marques Colston are listed behind Romo, and I would much rather have the top-level WR first, then grab a QB later. Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: Maybe it's simply because most owners aren't expecting much from Deuce McAllister, but Bush has an ADP of 30. That seems too high, unless you play in a point-per-reception league. If McAllister can't stay on the field regularly or doesn't perform well enough to remain a key part of the offense, you will see more of Pierre Thomas or Aaron Stecker. Many savvy fantasy owners think Bush is overrated, and even if you like him, you can often get him later than the 30th pick. Kevin Jones, RB, Bears: He has signed on with the Bears and now has an ADP of 99, which would put him in the ninth round of a 12-team draft. That's simply too early for a guy who still has questions about his health, and who may not get much of a chance to do anything more than serve in spot duty to keep Matt Forte fresh. Personally, I wouldn't draft him at all. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Despite a disappointing rookie season, there seems to be a lot of owners who apparently still have a lot of faith in Johnson's upside. Now that last year's back troubles are behind him, Calvin can certainly justify an ADP of 56. That puts him in fifth-round territory, although you may be able to wait until the sixth to nab him in some leagues. Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers: No, his ADP of 34 is not because RotoExperts kingpin Ben Ice is drafting daily on MDC. Many fantasy owners believe Graham is for real, and I am with them. When he finally got the opportunity to play last season, Earnest made the most of it. He'll be a central figure on the Tampa Bay offense this year and a fine No. 2 fantasy RB. FALLING Peyton Manning, QB, Colts: Obviously, many owners are overreacting to the recent surgery. Manning's ADP is now 17th overall, but I still believe he is a surefire first-rounder. The procedure is not expected to produce any major setbacks, so he'll be back before the start of the regular season. I say look ahead, don't worry about the fact that he is out now, and still grab him in the first round. Rudi Johnson, RB, Bengals: After a very disappointing 2007, Johnson has an ADP of 54 and has gone as low as 70th overall. The Bengals, however, remain confident in Johnson. If you can get Rudi any later than mid-fifth round, which I have seen in some drafts, you could be getting a nice value on a player who will be determined to show that he is not "done" in 2008. Donald Driver, WR, Packers: The "loss" of Brett Favre has somehow driven Driver's ADP down to 69, while teammate Greg Jennings still has an ADP of 40. Actually, Driver may be the more productive fantasy receiver of the two. Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to throw deep nearly as often as Favre did in 2007, and Driver is a better bet to make mid-range and possession grabs. Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders: The arrival of rookie Darren McFadden obviously pushes Fargas down on many cheat sheets and draft boards. Yet he is still worthy of the ADP of 89, as the Raiders may have to rely heavily on two running backs this season. Fargas can at least be a quality flex option in many leagues. Todd Heap, TE, Ravens: Injuries and a very questionable QB situation in Baltimore have contributed to Heap's ADP of 100, and he has gone as low as 119 in some leagues. I don’t blame anyone for passing on Heap. If I want a top TE, I can do better, and if I don't get one of the elite guys ahead of him, I will wait to grab a guy with more upside. Jon Kitna, QB, Lions: He was highly-regarded by some last preseason, yet he once again proved to be erratic and turnover-prone. Kitna now has an ADP of 129, which put him in the second half of the 12th round in 12-team leagues, and even lower in 10-team formats. Even with the expected rise of Calvin Johnson, Kitna simply can’t be trusted. I usually avoid him, even as a backup. Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks: He is expected to start, although there are reports of an earlier than expected return from Deion Branch. Burleson also caught nine TD passes last year. Yet his low ADP also proves that MDC participants do their homework. Burleson will have trouble with physical defenders and is better suited to being a third receiver. Scott Engel believes the credibility of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is falling every year. No KISS? No Alice Cooper? E-mail Scott at
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