With the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline fast approaching, Tom and Matt review some of the transactions that have already occurred, and give you the fantasy 411.

Teams are once again working the phones looking to make deals as they jockey for playoff positioning.  We have already seen big names like C.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden dealt, and in the past week, several other players have either been traded or changed teams. Mid-season trades can make or break a baseball team while fighting for the playoffs, and when general managers put deals together, they certainly aren’t worried about how those trades will affect Joe Blow’s fantasy baseball team. Truth be told though, those trades usually do impact fantasy owners and can radically alter your league’s standings.  There are multiple factors to consider once you learn of a deal being completed -- whether it’s re-assessing the value of a player you currently have on your roster or a timely pickup of a player whose playing time will increase because of a deal. Recently, Jon Rauch, Randy Wolf, and Ray Durham have been traded.  Richie Sexson has been waived by the Seattle Mariners and subsequently picked up by the New York Yankees.  How will these moves affect your fantasy team?  What actions (add/drop/trade) do you need to take to reap the greatest benefit for your fantasy team?  Well, Tom and Matt are holed up at the Trading Post discussing those exact topics, so let’s check out what pearls of wisdom they have to offer this week.  Tom and Matt – take it away!

That's one large strike zone and pitchers take full advantage of it. Photo Credit Googie Man

RICHIE SEXSON, 1B, NYY

Richie Sexson, now in his 12th big league season, has been on a downward trajectory since the 2003 season, which was arguably the best of his career.  Because of multiple injuries to his shoulder, 2004 was basically a lost season for Sexson, as he played in just 23 games.  If you take out that injury-shortened 2004 season, his HRs, RBI, OBP, and SLG have declined every year since.  So what are the Yankees expecting to get from Mr. Sexson?  Or more importantly, what can you, Mr. Fantasy Baseball Owner, expect from him?  Will the change in venue help him reverse his recent poor play, or is Sexson damaged goods -- never to recover the power stroke he showed when he hit 45 home runs twice in a three-year span earlier this decade?  For the Yankees, it’s really a low-risk, high-reward signing.  They are not on the hook for much money, and if he produces, it’s another quality Yankee signing.  If he doesn’t hit, the Yankees can either bench or release him, and they haven’t lost much.  But for your fantasy team, too many games where he goes hitless can negatively impact you, so you need to know if Sexson is worthy of a pickup or not.  Matt and Tom, where does Richie Sexson belong the rest of the season, on my team or on the waiver wire?

STATS (through July 23rd):   AB: 256  H: 56  R: 27  HR: 11 RBI: 31  BB: 40  SB: 1  AVG: .219

Matt:  Lost amid the doom and gloom of Richie Sexson’s season stats is his dominance against left-handed pitching.  This season, in 65 AB against lefties, he is hitting .338 with 5 HR and 13 RBI.  Against righties this season, it's not the same story.  Sexson has a putrid .178 AVG with 6 HR and 18 RBI in 191 AB.  So, it appears his fantasy value may vary based on the starting pitcher.  The Yankees must believe that his real value will fluctuate as well -- in his first game as a Yankee, he started at first base against Oakland lefthander Greg Smith, going one-for-three with one RBI.  In the next four games, all against right-handed pitchers, Sexson had exactly one AB and struck out.  If you have the time to check every day to see which side of the mound the opposing pitcher pitches from and can juggle your roster accordingly, then by all means, take a flier on Sexson – if not, which probably encompasses 99% of the owners out there, then pass on Sexson because he is Fool’s Gold!

Tom:  As more and more Yankees hurt their aging knees, hamstrings, and shoulders, you would think that Richie Sexson’s stock would start to rise.  But, that’s not the case.  With Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada, and Jason Giambi all looking like they are best suited to DH this year, Richie Sexson had better get comfortable, because he is going to learn a lot about Chad Moeller sitting on the bench.  Sure, we’ve heard about the lefty/righty platoon between Giambi and Sexson, but he’s 1-for-4 at the plate in five career games as a New York Yankee.  If that’s a telling sign of things to come this year, then maybe you should look elsewhere for power numbers.  With Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi both possibly getting more AB at the DH position and the idea that Jorge Posada is going to bypass having surgery only to return and play first base or DH, Sexson may end up being the odd man out in this equation.  I don’t think it was a bad signing for the Yankees, since they only have to pay the league minimum in salary. As far as fantasy options go, I would pass on Sexson.  Or, I would pick him up only to help bolster your team name -- We Be Sexson? -- for comedic purposes only!  Fool’s Gold.

RANDY WOLF, SP, HOU

Back in April, Matt and Tom profiled Randy Wolf.  At the time he was 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and pitching for the San Diego Padres.  Both Tom and Matt were down on Wolf’s prospects for the balance of 2008.  Tom stated, “Write me an e-mail when this guy reaches 100 innings this year. There’s a pretty good chance that I won’t hear from you.”  Matt wrote, “While Wolf is helped by pitching in spacious PETCO Park, I don’t see a big breakthrough coming this year.”  Both Tom and Matt gave Wolf the Fool’s Gold tag and dismissed him as “league-average” and “not much of a fantasy option.”  Well here we are three months later, and Wolf has a new address; let’s see if our resident experts feel differently about Mr. Wolf now that he’s in Houston.

Stats (through July 23rd):  GS: 21  IP: 119.2  W: 6  K: 105  BB: 47  WHIP: 1.42  ERA:  4.74

Matt:  Yes, I wasn’t high on Wolf before the season. I still wasn’t in late-April, and my feelings still haven’t changed in late-July.  My prediction back in April was 10-12 wins with an ERA and WHIP close to his career averages (at the time) of 4.22 and 1.33 respectively.  Wolf is sitting on 6 W and his ERA and WHIP are 4.74 and 1.42 respectively.  Wow, I sure did underestimate how awful Wolf was going to be away from PETCO Park.  In San Diego, Wolf was 5-4 with a 3.17 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 62 Ks in 65.1 IP.  On the road, he was 1-6 with a (gulp) 6.63 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and 43 Ks in 54.1 IP.  Those are brutal numbers. Can he turn it around in Houston?  Well, in his past four starts at Minute Maid Park, Wolf is 2-2 with a 4.71 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and 12 Ks in 22.2 IP.  That’s not going to get it done.  The bottom line is this:  while the Astros are a better team than the Padres, which may equate to an extra win or two by the end of the season, those wins are offset by the high ERA and WHIP you will also receive.  I said it in April, and I’ll say it again.  Randy is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Stay away from this Fool’s Gold!

Tom:  Way back in April, Matt and I touched on Randy Wolf.  I think, to our credit, that we were dead-on in our assessment.  While I did give you all an assignment -- none of you completed it -- and told you to write me when Randy Wolf throws 100 innings this year, I can only hope that many of you did not write because you agreed wholeheartedly in our assessment of Wolf.  We were right!  Since April 25, Wolf has gone 4-10 with an unimpressive 5.35 ERA.  Those numbers are nothing worth writing home about.  Heck, I am having a hard time writing to you guys about Randy Wolf, much less the thought of sending that home.  It’s strange, because I have no idea why the Astros would make a move for a guy like Wolf.  The last place Astros seem to think that they are alive in the playoff hunt, but that’s news to the rest of us. Especially with Roy Oswalt on the DL, that concept seems far-fetched.  Wolf, a terrible pitcher away from PETCO Park (1-6 with a 6.63 ERA on the road), will most likely flop as an Astro.  Like Matt, I said it before and I’ll say it again -- Randy Wolf is NOT a fantasy option.  He needs to pitch much, much better to prove me wrong.  And I certainly do not see that happening.  Fool’s Gold.

JON RAUCH, RP, AZ

Jon Rauch, the 29-year old reliever out of Louisville, Kentucky, has been one of the few bright spots for the lowly Washington Nationals.  That was until he was shipped off to Arizona this past Tuesday in a trade for minor league second baseman Emilio Bonifacio.  Rauch now finds himself pitching for the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks, while speedster Bonifacio finds himself on the fast track to being the Nationals second baseman of the future.  While Bonifacio’s role in Washington seems to be more defined (wallow in the minors until called up on September 1, 2008), Rauch’s role may not be so easy to peg.  He joins the first place Diamondbacks, who already have a closer in place in Brandon Lyon.  Lyon, as of Wednesday, July 23, has 20 SV and an ERA of 3.86 for the season.  Those numbers are not staggering by any means, which makes this an interesting case deciding who will now close games for the Diamondbacks and who'll be the eighth inning set-up man.  Tom and Matt are sorting through the numbers to figure it out so you don’t have to.

STATS (through July 23rd):  G: 49  IP: 49.1  W: 4  SV: 17  K: 46  BB: 7  ERA:  2.92  WHIP: 1.01

Tom:  Jon Rauch has had a terrific year thus far.  While he’s 29-years old, it wasn’t until 2006 that he really got a chance to play a significant role in the major leagues.  In the past two seasons, he’s averaged 88 IP as the Nationals set-up man.  This season, however, he got the call to step up and close games when Chad Cordero was hurt.  He has not disappointed.  But, on the flip side, neither has his new teammate, Brandon Lyon.  What do the Diamondbacks do?  Well, they keep Lyon as their closer -- for now.  I’m not a big Brandon Lyon fan, but he did save 15 consecutive games in April, May, and June, only to follow that up by blowing three out of his next six save opportunities.  Lyon has been terrible in July (9.45 ERA), while Rauch hasn’t been much better (5.14 ERA). The Diamondbacks are likely to go with the old, “If it ain’t broke,” mentality.  You very rarely see first place teams switch closers this late into the season.  If Lyon blows a save or two and the Diamondbacks fall out of first place, you might see them switch to Rauch, but consider Lyon the closer for the remainder of season. That does not bode well for Rauch owners.  Sorry guys, but Rauch is Fool’s Gold. 

Matt:  Jon Rauch is 17-of-22 in save opportunities this season.  If you are saving less than 80% of your save opportunities, you are not getting the job done.  That being said, Rauch does sport a fairly impressive 2.92 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP on the season and has held batters to a .232 AVG against him, while striking out 46 batters in 49.1 IP.  Interestingly, most of his trouble has come at home.  His home ERA was 3.64, compared to his road ERA of 1.83, so getting traded out of Washington may actually help his peripherals.  So the question is: Will Rauch become the closer in Arizona, and if so, when?  Well Brandon Lyon is 20-of-25 in save opportunities, which is a bit better than Rauch, but certainly not slam-the-door-shut good.  His peripherals aren’t quite as good as Rauch’s, as his ERA is 3.86, his WHIP is 1.29, and he only has 28 Ks in 39.2 IP. Ironically, Lyon’s ERA is also higher at home (4.87) then it is on the road (2.79).  I think it is just a matter of time before Rauch ascends to the closer role in Arizona.  If you can pry Rauch from another owner in your league on the cheap – do it. Rauch is the Mother Lode.  Oh, and while you’re at it – if he is still on your waiver wire, grab Joel Hanrahan. He should end up as the full-time closer in Washington.

RAY DURHAM, 2B, MILWAUKEE

The Milwaukee Brewers made another minor move this past week to compliment the aforementioned C.C. Sabathia trade.  They picked up San Francisco Giants second baseman Ray Durham with hopes to either replace the struggling Rickie Weeks at second base, or if possible, use Durham as a spark to get Weeks back on track.  Durham’s .292 AVG and .384 OBP dwarf Weeks’ numbers, as Weeks is hitting only .219 with an OPB of .328 for the season.  In the first two games since the news broke that Durham was traded to the Brewers, Weeks has gone 3-for-9 with three runs, one home run, and three RBI.  It seems like that motivation to keep his job is working for Weeks.  But, we suspect there is something else in play here.  Did the Brewers really acquire a 36-year old second baseman with over 2,000 career hits, just as a form of motivation for their underachieving 25-year old second baseman?  We find that hard to believe.  So they must have acquired Durham to be a bench player or a veteran presence in the clubhouse -- right?  Again, we find that hard to believe.  So how do we make sense of all of this?  Well, that’s why Matt and Tom are here!  What do you say, guys? 

STATS (through July 23rd):   AB: 264  H: 77  R: 43  HR: 3  RBI: 32  BB: 38  SB: 6  AVG: .292

Tom:  I have been a huge fantasy fan of Rickie Weeks for years now.  Well, I should say that I have been a huge fan of Weeks’ potential for years now.  He really has never lived up to any of it with his career .243 batting average.  I am always ‘that guy’ who falls in love with potential.  I’ve even had a few readers send me e-mails disputing my stance on a player, because some of my analysis was based on potential and not realized statistical analysis.  So, I’ve made a few changes in my life that reflect that “flaw”.  However, I am still a fan of Rickie Weeks, and I believe that there is no reason to panic, thinking that Ray Durham is going to steal any playing time or AB away from Weeks.  The reason the Brewers brought in Durham was to bolster the offense off the bench, and not to replace Weeks at second base.  We’ve already touched on the disparity between their BA and OBP, but if you look at the power numbers then you certainly have to give the advantage to Weeks.  Durham, as you will see, will replace Weeks in late inning spots, which is not the best news for Weeks’ owners.  But, it’s not good news for Durham owners either.  I think where you’ll see Durham excel is in late inning appearances and in the playoffs.  Again, that’s not good news for current Durham owners or those thinking of him as an option; which is why, with all the “potential” I can muster, I have to consider Durham as Fool’s Gold.

Matt:  Maybe the addition of Ray Durham will finally allow Rickie Weeks to transform into the player everyone expected he would.  Even if it doesn’t, this is still a great move for the Brewers.  You bring in a respected veteran who won’t mind coming off of the bench, maybe getting spot starts at second base as well, and who can play solid defense. That is a good thing.  It's too bad that bringing in a veteran has no positive leadership effect on your fantasy team.  How this move does affect your fantasy team is this:  I also see Durham being primarily used as a late-inning replacement for Weeks.  Durham has only three errors this season in 262 total chances, for a .989 fielding percentage, while Weeks has eight errors in 384 total chances for a .979 fielding percentage.  The bottom line is that this trade doesn’t really affect Weeks’ value, and it greatly diminishes Durham’s value.  If you have Durham on your roster, feel free to drop him immediately, because he is Fool’s Gold.  So who should you look to pick up?  Take a look at Eugenio Velez of the Giants.  He should be the starter at second base for the rest of the season.  While he won’t give you much in the way of power, he will give you stolen bases in bushels.

After a long day at the Trading Post, Matt and Tom are rounding third and heading home.  Got a question about fantasy baseball or the meaning of life?  Drop us a line!  Write Matt at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and Tom at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it  

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