Scott Engel polls the RotoExperts team on the early-round outlook of Larry Johnson in 2008.

QUESTION: Is Larry Johnson worth a first-round pick in 2008, and if so, how early?
You already know where I'd take LJ based on my mock draft and player rankings. But where does the rest of the team think he should be picked? Fear not readers, because we've got you covered.

Doug Anderson: Johnson could very well bounce back and produce numbers worthy of a first-rounder. It's happened in more unlikely scenarios. Johnson will get his carries, with the Chiefs pretty much forced to rely heavily on the running game. With that said, I'm going to tell you that Johnson is not a first-rounder, though, even if he does end up posting great numbers. Here's why: you don't win by gambling on your first-round pick. Even if you're right about that player, what's the best you can hope for? You get a first-rounder who produces first-round numbers. There is zero upside and plenty of room for downside here. You win by taking players like Johnson in the second or third round. Then, when you've correctly identified that player who produces like a first-rounder, you've really added value. Use your first-round pick on a rock of stability like Peyton Manning. What's a bursa sac, anyway?

Mark Strausberg:  I don't think I have to waste time saying why the top five running backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, Joseph Addai), Randy Moss, and Tom Brady should be picked before Johnson. If you're in a two-QB league or one where passing TDs are six points, Peyton Manning should also be picked in the first round. That leaves four more first round picks in a 12-team league. I can see taking Reggie Wayne near the end of the first round, and I can think of at least five running backs I'd rather have over Johnson: Marshawn Lynch, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, Laurence Maroney, and Marion Barber III. And if it’s a points per reception league, I'd rather have Reggie Bush over LJ for sure. The offensive line is still reeling from the recent retirements over the last couple years, and Johnson has a lot of mileage on him.

Tommy Landry: If the RotoExperts Mock Draft (coming on the site soon!) proved anything to me, it's that I won't touch LJ in the first round. I had the 10th pick, and he was one of the candidates for selection. Unfortunately, I missed Clinton Portis by one pick, and I couldn't seem to find Marshawn Lynch fast enough with 60-second time limits on our picks, so I went with Frank Gore. Yes, even with all the risk surrounding Gore, his inability to stay healthy, an unproven QB, etc. Sure, Johnson was once one of the most dynamic RBs in the league, carrying fantasy owners on his back. But he's just not gonna do it this year. He comes with similar risk to Gore, in that both offensive lines are questionable and both guys will have unproven play callers under center. Here's the catch: LJ has 349 more touches in his career than the younger Gore (1,177 to 828, rushes and receptions combined). With three equivalent question marks attached to them each, workload is the tiebreaker. So that gets us to that 10th pick. With Marshawn Lynch and Reggie Wayne sitting there and only two picks left in that first round, there's no way I reach for Larry Johnson with the hope that he can perform at elite levels, given his situation and career workload. Like they say, you can't win your league with your first pick, but you sure can lose it. Don't be that sucker who swallows the "rebound year" pill.

Phil Eletto: Larry Johnson is a first rounder if you are in a league of at least 12 teams. After the first six running backs (LT, Jackson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, and Gore) every RB has warts. There's no way should he go off the board before Tom Brady, and he shouldn't go before Randy Moss either. Lynch, Portis, Barber, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ryan Grant have more upside than LJ, but he is just as talented as that group, and the offense is more dependent on him. He has a better track record than most of them, albeit carrying the label of an "old" 28 years because of this history. It also doesn't hurt that KC added talent on the offensive line, and the drafting of Jamaal Charles ensures that LJ should be fresher as the season wears on. Neither Kolby Smith nor Charles will take those money carries in the red zone. Don’t forget the cakewalk schedule, either.

Paul Bourdett: Allow me to respond with a resounding HELL YES! Assuming Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Randy Moss are all off the board, Larry Johnson should go no later than the end of the first round. I know, a lot of people are down on LJ because of questions surrounding his offensive line, but didn't those same questions exist last season? Sure, he got hurt and missed eight games, but if you think it's because of a shaky front five, I'd like to play in your league. His freak injury (and yes, it was freak) was the result of getting tackled from behind, not because he took a pounding. What people should be looking at is that despite offensive line woes, Johnson was still on pace for almost 1,500 total yards and eight TDs (which included a 12-yard yard rushing effort in Week Five and two games where he had 10 or fewer rushing attempts). When that 16-game pace represents a "down year," you know you're talking about a great player. It's easy to forget, but before his foot injury, LJ was really starting to come on (123, 119, and 112 rushing yards in Weeks Four, Six, and Seven). As for Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith, those guys will battle each other for playing time. Whoever emerges as the clear-cut number two will only help keep Johnson fresh. I realize I'm in the minority here, but I'm taking him before Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, and Willis McGahee. And I don’t consider any of those picks to be reaches.

Bradley Rysz: Johnson is worth no more than a mid-second round pick in upcoming drafts. His yards-per-carry (ypc) has dropped for two consecutive seasons and was a dismal 3.5 in 2007. Johnson is accustomed to a heavy workload of 35 to 40 touches a game, but Kansas City Head Coach Herm Edwards has indicated that he will receive closer to 25 to 30 touches a game this season, in an effort to keep him fresh. Coming off an injury and with a depleted offensive line, Johnson is no longer the fantasy stud that he once was. Let someone else take the gamble.

Matt Wirkiowski: Larry Johnson is not worth a first-round pick.  I would rank him as the 12th-best running back this year.  With more running-back-by-committees in the NFL and more emphasis on the passing game overall, the 12th best running back is, at best, a mid-to-late second-round pick.  If Johnson can stay healthy, and if Brodie Croyle can keep opposing defenses honest, he could certainly put up first-round caliber numbers. The problem is that there are too many other "sure things" available at running back, wide receiver, and quarterback to use your first-round pick on Johnson. Instead of taking Johnson near the end of round one, take a look at Marion Barber III, a wide receiver like Terrell Owens or Reggie Wayne.  Any of those three players would be much more likely to give a good return on your investment at that point of the draft.

Christopher Bangs: NO. And I don't say that because I am drafting a receiver in the first round. I say it because of the questions surrounding the Chiefs entire offense. Will Brodie Croyle be respected enough as a quarterback to prevent other teams from stacking the box? Will the newly reconstructed offensive line gel quickly enough to provide decent protection? Did Kansas City decide to just waste a third-round pick by taking Jamaal Charles? Will Kolby Smith ride the bench early in the year instead of stealing carries and receptions? No is also the answer to all of these questions.

Mike Gilbert: God, no! Right off the bat, the sheer ineptitude of the Chiefs offensive line cannot be exaggerated. As Dr. Seuss might say, they stink, stank, stunk. Additionally, Brodie Croyle, the poor man's Luke McCown, will be the Chiefs' starting QB, so Johnson will not get any help there. To put a cherry on top of this flaming mess, Herman Edwards, a nice guy but one of the worst game day coaches ever, is still in charge of the Chiefs. He'll run Johnson into the ground like he has in the past, until the guy is hurt again. Finally, a question of character. In 2004, then-Chiefs coach Dick Vermeil said of Johnson that he needed "to take the diaper off and go play." In August 2007, Johnson signed a new contract that gave him $19 million in guaranteed money. Nine weeks later, he went down for the season with a foot injury. Now, this could just be a coincidence or the inevitable result of too many carries. When you consider Johnson's overwhelming workload over the last few years and his lack of maturity, do you really see him going all-out after a major injury AND getting his big payday? Neither do I. No way should you consider taking Johnson in the first round, regardless how large your league is. Third round, tops.

Kyle Stack: One would think that Johnson is a worthy first-round choice now that he’s fully healthy. After battling a foot injury throughout last season, Johnson, who posted back-to-back 1,700-plus yard seasons from 2005-06, seems primed to improve on his 559-yard, three-touchdown performance from a year ago. However, an improvement wouldn’t necessarily insinuate that he’s still an elite fantasy back. He is 28 years old and played just eight games last year. Even if he manages to improve his overall numbers, that wouldn’t be indicative of a return to fantasy greatness. Kansas City’s shoddy offensive line and dismal passing offense mean that Johnson should face many eight-in-the-box defenses. Expect something close to his 3.5 yard per carry average from last year, but look for higher overall numbers due to more games played. That seems like second-round value to me.

Jonathan Phillips: I'm always amazed at how quickly people jump off the same bandwagon they were pulling. Johnson's skills have not declined in the least.  His 3.5 ypc last year was a direct result of injuries and a decaying offensive line.  Ever try running on a bad foot?  Granted, his line has not really improved, but in full health and at only 28 years of age, Johnson is still incredibly dangerous.  I think your top draft pick has to be not only good, but most importantly, predictable.  Johnson has too much uncertainty to be a first-round pick.  But I would gladly take him in the second and even more likely in the third as my RB2.

Chris Ryan: I was the guy in your league that drafted Johnson in the sixth round in 2005, and then watched as he led my team to a championship, thanks to a legendary seven-week stretch to end the season (15 TDs and 1,100 yards).  I owned him again in 2006, when he had 2,200 yards from scrimmage and scored 19 TDs. Another championship.  So maybe I’m a little biased when it comes to L.J. -- let's just say that there's a number 27 Chiefs jersey hanging in my closet -- but I don't think that I'm way off base when I say that Johnson should not only be a first round pick, but that he's top five material.  The foot is healed.  Brodie Croyle and the offensive line will be much-improved. Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles will provide an occasional breather that will go a long way in helping Johnson stay fresh.  Plus, he's upset that everyone is doubting him. Get ready for a season of "diamond cutter" hand gestures and flag-spiking, because Johnson is primed to take back his rightful place among the fantasy elite.

Matthew Greber: Absolutely not. He has the potential to provide first-round value, but due the uncertainty over his injuries, the wear and tear on his body, and the atrocious Kansas City offense, he is far too risky this year. I'd personally only want to pair him with one of the guys who I could think of as more of a 'sure thing,' and all of Them will be gone among the first four or five picks. If LJ is there at the end of the second round and I have one of those guys, I'll have to think about it. But the reality is that he won't be sitting there for me -- and that's fine. Someone else can reap the benefits if he lives up to his fullest potential, but at least I know I won't endure a mess of a season from someone who I didn't trust before the draft. (See: Benson, Cedric in 2007.)

SUMMARY: It seem like a total of nine-out-of-10 RotoExperts agree that Johnson's supporting cast is a major detriment to his success, because the Kansas City offense won't be difficult to game plan against. He's going to draw lots of defenders every time he touches the ball and will have to work hard for his yardage. What's more, LJ isn't going to get consistent opportunities to finish off scoring drives playing for an erratic offense. For those who submit that last year's injury was a "freak occurrence," I say injuries are injuries. They happen often in the NFL, and when you are a moving target on many downs, a player will be more exposed to any type of injuries, whether they are of the "freak" variety or not. Sure, Johnson is still very talented, but simply pointing to last season's numbers and projecting them over a full season does not make for any solid theory in my eyes. It's not about what the numbers were, especially from last year, but what will drive the numbers this year. Last year's totals, and of course, the totals from the seasons before, don't make for some sort of bonus advantage in a new season. Not when Dwayne Bowe will command more defensive respect, stifling the passing game even more. Last year's line was awful and could actually be even worse this year. Johnson is a guy projected to get an ample workload, and such RBs are always injury risks, because they not only get a lot of reps, but in a situation like Johnson's, they are exposed to much more defensive attention. A guy coming off a broken foot with shoddy blocking and a sputtering passing game will see his TD potential limited. He'll be wearing a bulls-eye, so he won't even get picked in the first three rounds if I'm drafting. I wouldn't even consider him until the fourth round, if he were somehow still available.

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