With the closer situations around baseball constantly in flux, Paul Bourdett turns to his crystal ball in search of some stability. Okay, so I don't really have a crystal ball. I've only got the MLB Extra Innings package and the internet. So what? Excuse me if I seem a bit frustrated, but I’ve got quite the conundrum on my hands. You see, my deadline for this column is Wednesday, the trade deadline is Thursday (tomorrow for me, yesterday for you), and I'm having a hard time trying to figure out how to deal with this. I don’t want to wait an entire week to report on what’s about to go down, but there’s no way I can advise you on whether to trade or not trade a particular player because the deadline will have already passed by the time you read this. To be honest, the whole space/time continuum thing is driving me a little crazy. But hey, it's been a crazy season, so at least I'm sticking with the motif. Think about it for a second. There have been no fewer than 10 franchises who've made a change at closer this year, some of those teams more than once. Remember Chad Cordero? What about Joe Borowski? Here's a blast from the past -- Jeremy Accardo! Hard to believe Accardo was the Blue Jays closer less than four months ago, right? Seems like an alternate universe...almost. Although in those cases, it was much easier to see that the aforementioned players would be replaced. The trade deadline? That’s a whole ‘nother animal. In the last few days alone, we've had a Pirate land in New York, a "shark" wash up on the shores of Chicago, a National get deported, and a Tiger, all of a sudden, lose his stripes. All this while a Cub fends off a blister and a Cardinal rules again. Signs of the apocalypse, I'm sure. Unfortunately, my inability to perfect time travel prevents me from detailing what actually went down yesterday. So instead, I’m going to predict today (Wednesday), what happens tomorrow (Thursday’s trade deadline). I’ll still get into the other closers around baseball, but let’s start with the players rumored to be on the move before the deadline, and we’ll discuss how right or wrong I was next week. Stats(and predictions) as of July 30, 2008 “On the Move?” George Sherrill, BAL
The odds on Sherrill staying in Baltimore were sitting at -125 on Wednesday morning. I bet against that and took home a pretty penny. Sherrill lands in Milwaukee.
30-for-36, 44.2 IP, 49 Ks, 4.23 ERA, 1.46 WHIP
Next in line: Jim Johnson
Third in line: Chad Bradford Huston Street, OAK
My feeling was that Street would stay put, and he did. If Joey Devine were healthy, that might not have been the case.
18-for-23, 45 IP, 43 Ks, 4.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Next in line: Alan Embree (reportedly on the market)
Third in line: Santiago Casilla Kevin Gregg, FLA
With the Marlins still in contention for the division, it would’ve been tough to trade one of their most reliable arms. So instead, they traded FOR one – Brian Fuentes – and made him their new closer.
22-for-28, 50 IP, 40 Ks, 2.34 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Next in line: Matt Lindstrom
Third in line: Renyel Pinto Brian Fuentes, COL
Fuentes wasn’t as much of a lock to be traded as he was last week, but as of Wednesday morning, I was still betting on it. Welcome to Miami!
17-for-21, 41 IP, 45 Ks, 3.07 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Next in line: Manny Corpas
Third in line: Taylor Buchholz John Grabow, PIT
Even before John Grabow got shipped out of town, Tyler Yates was set to take over.
0-for-2, 53.2 IP, 45 Ks, 3.19 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
About to cut in line: Tyler Yates
Third in line: Denny Bautista Salomón Torres, MIL
Torres hadn’t been dominant of late (a loss and a blown save in the last week and change), Eric Gagne was looking much better (four scoreless innings in his last four appearances), and the team had been rumored to be in the sweepstakes for just about every closer available. It was a tough call, but I chose not to believe in Bob Melvin, and selected door number three. Torres out, Sherrill in.
20-for-24, 56.2 IP, 39 Ks, 2.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Next in line: Eric Gagne
Third in line: Guillermo Mota Jason Isringhausen, STL
I’m not exactly sure what Izzy did to deserve the promotion, (6.23 ERA in July) but he was once again named closer this past Tuesday. I don’t think it lasts. And not because the Cards were still in the market for a closer as of Wednesday, but because Wade “Southpaw” Alberty convinced me that the team’s solution at closer was already in-house -- Adam Wainwright. St. Louis stands pat.
11-for-18, 37 IP, 28 Ks, 5.84 ERA, 1.57 WHIP
Next in line: Ryan Franklin
Third in line: Kyle McClellan
Line jumper: Adam Wainwright “On Board” Mariano Rivera, NYY
I know Rivera’s the greatest closer of all-time, but I’m not letting him off the hook for getting involved in something this cheesy. C’mon Mariano, as Mark Jackson would say, “You’re better than that!” At least the money raised is going towards his foundation.
26-for-26, 47.1 IP, 57 Ks, 1.33 ERA, 0.68 WHIP.
Next in line: Jose Veras
Third in line: Dámaso Marte Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
Papelbon is tied with George Sherrill for the second most saves in baseball.
30-for-34, 45.1 IP, 54 Ks, 2.18 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
Next in line: Mike Timlin
Third in line: Hideki Okajima Joe Nathan, MIN
Nathan used to wait in anticipation of the trading deadline, hoping his team would bolster its chances of a World Series. But as the Pioneer Press points out, “he’s learned his lesson. He’s a Twin”. Wow, that’s rough.
29-for-31, 43.2 IP, 47 Ks, 1.24 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
Next in line: Matt Guerrier
Third in line: Jesse Crain Billy Wagner, NYM
Since going for an MRI on his shoulder last week, Wagner’s picked up three saves, and allowed only one hit in five scoreless innings.
27-for-33, 46 IP, 50 Ks, 1.96 ERA, 0.83 WHIP
Next in line: Duaner Sánchez
Third in line: Aaron Heilman Brad Lidge, PHI
Well, at least he got that one out of the way. Probably not a sign of things to come as he’s saved three games since, without allowing an earned run.
25-for-25, 45 IP, 58 Ks, 2.20 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Next in line: Chad Durbin
Third in line: J.C. Romero Francisco Rodríguez, LAA
K-Rod's got four saves in the past week, and it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down. You can kiss Bobby Thigpen’s record goodbye.
44-for-47, 47.1 IP, 49 Ks, 2.47 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Next in line: Scot Shields
Third in line: Jose Arredondo Francisco Cordero, CIN
Rough July for Cordero: three blown saves, two losses, a 6.17 ERA, and 2.14 WHIP. He has completely lost it before (Texas, 2006), so it’s not out of the question here.
21-for-27, 47.1 IP, 51 Ks, 3.42 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Next in line: Jeremy Affeldt
Third in line: David Weathers José Valverde, HOU
After a rough outing on July 21, Valverde’s bounced back to convert his last two saves.
27-for-33, 48.1 IP, 55 Ks, 4.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Next in line: Doug Brocail (supposedly, the Red Sox are interested)
Third in line: Geoff Geary Joakim Soria, KC
The Mexicutioner’s 28th save was one for the record books. ¡Arriba!
29-for-31, 48 IP, 51 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.71 WHIP
Next in line: Ron Mahay (reportedly on the market)
Third in line: Robinson Tejeda Bobby Jenks, CHI (AL)
Looking just fine since coming off the DL on July 20.
21-for-24, 36.1 IP, 21 Ks, 1.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Next in line: Octavio Dotel
Third in line: Matt Thornton (Scott Linebrink on the DL until mid-August) Troy Percival, TB
Despite Percival giving up an earned run in each of his last two saves, Rays manager Joe Maddon stands behind his man.
22-for-24, 31.2 IP, 31 Ks, 3.69 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Next in line: Dan Wheeler
Third in line: Grant Balfour Trevor Hoffman, SD
After going more than three weeks without a save, Hoffman’s a perfect 7-for-7 in July.
22-for-25, 32.1 IP, 37 Ks, 4.45 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Next in line: Heath Bell
Third in line: Cla Meredith Brandon Lyon, ARI
I think Lyon keeps the job, but the D’backs were wise to acquire Jon Rauch as insurance. Lyon in July: two losses, two blown saves, 7.27 ERA.
22-for-27, 41.2 IP, 32 Ks, 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Next in line: Jon Rauch
Third in line: Chad Qualls B.J. Ryan, TOR
Only eight saves with a 4.82 ERA since June 1.
20-for-22, 35.2 IP, 35 Ks, 2.78 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Next in line: Scott Downs
Third in line: Jesse Carlson Brian Wilson, SF
Wilson hasn’t blown a save since May 2. Unbelievable.
28-for-30, 41.1 IP, 46 Ks, 4.57 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Next in line: Tyler Walker
Third in line: Keiichi Yabu  | | Jonathan Broxton picked up his fifth save of the season on July 29. Photo Credit: Craigfnp |
Jonathan Broxton, LAD
Since taking over the closer’s role, Broxton is a perfect 4-for-4 in saves.
5-for-10, 45.1 IP, 54 Ks, 3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Next in line: Hong-Chih Kuo
Third in line: Joe Beimel Mike Gonzalez, ATL
Gonzalez’s chances have been few and far between, but even with a shaky outing on Tuesday night, it doesn’t look like Rafael Soriano is a threat to take back the job.
4-for-4, 14 IP, 18 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Next in line: Rafael Soriano
Third in line: Blaine Boyer "On the Fence” Fernando Rodney, DET
I didn’t see this one coming. Okay, I did. I just didn’t think it would happen this abruptly. Rodney’s a placeholder for now, and Todd Jones could presumably get the gig back, but keep an eye on Joel Zumaya. He’s had control issues since returning from shoulder surgery, and has recently complained of triceps soreness, but if the team still considers him their closer of the future, it would be wise of them to give him an extended look in the role before handing it over to him in 2009. Wow, that was a long sentence.
1-for-3, 16.2 IP, 16 Ks, 5.40 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Next in line: Kyle Farnsworth
Third in line: Joel Zumaya C.J. Wilson, TEX
You know things are bad when your own fans are rooting for you NOT to enter the game. I'm sorry, Ron Washington has to make a switch. HE HAS TO!
23-for-27, 44 IP, 39 Ks, 5.11 ERA, 1.59 WHIP
Next in line: Eddie Guardado
Third in line: Frank Francisco Brandon Morrow, SEA
There’s been speculation that Morrow will be sent down in order to groom him as a starter for next season, but with J.J. Putz blowing leads in two of his last three appearances, those plans may be put on hold.
10-for-12, 31.2 IP, 42 Ks, 1.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
Next in line: J.J. Putz
Third in line: Sean Green Joel Hanrahan, WAS
Hanrahan’s yet to record a save since Jon Rauch was traded. It’s not his fault though; Washington has lost six straight.
0-for-1, 61.1 IP, 69 Ks, 3.82 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Next in line: Luis Ayala
Third in line: Saul Rivera Carlos Mármol, CHI (NL)
Mármol appears to be the favorite for saves as long as Wood is out, but it might not be for long if Jeff “The Shark” Samardzija has anything to say about it (see below). Not that Carlos Mármol isn’t the superior pitcher, but as my colleague Kyle Stack has pointed out, Lou Piniella would rather not be forced into overworking Mármol by making him the full-time closer.
5-for-7, 58.1 IP, 79 Ks, 3.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
Next in line: Jeff Samardzija
Two games in and Piniella’s already impressed. With some help from our friends over at bleacherreport.com and Brooksbaseball.net, let’s take a look at some findings generated by PITCHf/x data from Samardzija’s first game (click here for more PITCHf/x info). - He consistently throws in the high 90s
- He pounds the zone/consistently throws strikes
- His breaking stuff is 10+ miles per hour slower than his fastball, allowing him to consistently keep hitters off balance
- His release point is consistent from pitch-to-pitch (he's not tipping his pitches/the switch from fastball to breaking ball)
Again, he’s only pitched in three games, and has given up runs in two of them, but if there’s one word that jumps out, it’s consistency. If Samardzija can “consistently” generate these types of results, the numbers should fall in line. Just remember, Samardzija wasn’t dominant in the minors (166 Ks in 285 minor league innings, 4.26 ERA) and he’s only a rookie. Almost forgot…
Third in line: Bob Howry Masa Kobayashi, CLE
Nothing’s changed since last week…well, except that his ERA and WHIP have gone up. I actually really like Rafael Pérez to get some more chances down the stretch. After all, the Indians might as well see what they have.
6-for-8, 47.1 IP, 31 Ks, 3.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Next in line: Rafael Pérez
Third in line: Rafael Betancourt “On the Shelf” Kerry Wood, CHI (NL)
It’s kind of ironic that Wood has made it through a full season with no arm issues, only to be derailed by blisters. Lou Piniella says Wood isn’t close to returning, so his status is pretty much up in the air.
24-for-29, 44.2 IP, 55 Ks, 3.02 ERA, 1.01 WHIP Matt Capps, PIT
With the Pirates in selling mode, his return is looking less and less likely.
17-for-22, 40.1 IP, 29 Ks, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP Got a question or comment? Send Paul an email at
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
.
 |
Baseball 
Subscribe to this comment's feed