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Mother Lode or Fool's Gold? PDF Print E-mail
Written by Tom Lorenzo and Matt Wirkiowski, RotoExperts.com Staff Writers   
Saturday, 02 August 2008

It's almost time for you to start seriously preparing for your Fantasy Football Draft, but until then, you need to keep your head in the game and finish this baseball season in a strong way. Don’t forget that you have a Fantasy Baseball league to win!

 

We know!  It’s time for you to get ready for your Fantasy Football Draft!  We get it!  But Matt and Tom also want you to remember that you are still in a fantasy baseball race, trying to win your league and the respect of your peers.  I know what you’re thinking--you’re 30 games out of first place and you really couldn't care less about baseball at this point because Scott Engel has you salivating with all of his inside football information. But let me give you this bit of advice to keep you interested in your poorly performing baseball squad -- there’s always next year!  How about the guy in one of my keeper leagues, who had Alex Rodriguez on his roster last season and made an end-of-the-year trade with a contending team once his team fell out of favor. He picked up Albert Pujols!  What foresight!  He went into this season with both A-Rod and A-Pu as his top two players – so how’s he doing this season?  Well, he’s in third place, but that’s beside the point. He is set up for the next some-odd years at the corner infield positions with two of the game’s best players.  Not bad at all.  And if you’re not in a keeper league and you currently reside 30 games out of first place?  Well, did I mention that Scott Engel has his fantasy football tips up on RotoExperts.com?  For the rest of you, let’s get into it. 

JEFF SAMARDZIJA, RP, CUBS

Probably best known for holding the Notre Dame Fighting Irish record for receiving yardage, this right-hander out of Merrillville, Indiana was drafted in the fifth round of the 2006 Major League Baseball Draft by the Chicago Cubs.  With an imminent decision to either take a lucrative signing bonus from the Cubs or to hold out and see what looms in his profession football career, Jeff Samardzija decided to take the Cubs offer and forego the opportunity to be selected in the NFL Draft.  Early indications were that maybe Samardzija might not have made the wisest decision.  Although the $16 million deal he signed with the Cubs helped to ease any growing pains, Samardzija started his baseball career by going 3-8 with a 4.95 ERA in Single-A Daytona.  However, with a 98-mile-per-hour fastball at his disposal and the organization standing behind him 100 percent, Samardzija posted much better numbers after getting the call to Double-A Tennessee (3-3 with a 3.41 ERA).  Then on July 25th, Samardzija was promoted to the big leagues after closer Kerry Wood was placed on the DL.  After blowing the save in his first big league appearance, Samardzija was quite impressive, picking up his first career big league save in his second appearance.  So what can we expect from the “Shark” the rest of the way?  Matt and Tom will break it down for you.

Jeff Samardzija
Does Samardzija really Know??

STATS (through July 29th):  IP:  5.0  W-L:  0-0  SV:  1  ERA:  3.60  WHIP:  0.80  K:  6

Tom:  As a Kerry Wood owner, I have been keeping my eye on this situation and trying to figure out whether Samardzija is worth taking a flier on.  He has terrific ability, but is he ready?  That seems to be the important question.  Is he really going to step into a playoff race and close games for the first-place Cubs?  In his first appearance, Samardzija blew a save opportunity, only to follow that up with a stellar performance in his second game. Samardzija earned his first career save on July 27th, striking out three batters in two innings.  But, in typical Lou Piniella fashion, Carlos Marmol got the call to close the following night in a big save situation against the Milwaukee Brewers, who were tied with the Cubs for first place coming into that game.  It looks like Piniella is going to call upon Carlos Marmol in big spots, and possibly in all save situations, from here on out.  So where does that leave Samardzija?  Well, he is now the new Carlos Marmol of the Chicago Cubs.  Is he worth a flier?  I don’t think so.  I think he may end up being a quality fantasy option down the line, but Piniella is going to play it safe because this run is too important for the Cubs to let a rookie with no big league experience close games down the stretch.  Someday maybe, but for now he is nothing more than Fool’s Gold.

Matt:  Samardzija was not committed to baseball full-time in college, because he was also, more famously, an All-American wide receiver for Notre Dame.  Although he could hit the mid-to-upper 90s on his fastball, his mechanics were sloppy, and his command was spotty.  Since joining the Cubs organization, his mechanics and command have improved, while his strikeout rate has fluctuated.  In college, he only struck out 159 batters in 240.1 innings, which is a rate of 5.96 K/9 IP.  Not exactly “knock your socks off” numbers.  In the minors, until he reached Triple-A, it didn’t seem like Samardzija’s strikeout numbers would ever improve, and they actually regressed.  In 247.2 innings, he struck out only 126 batters for a strikeout rate of 4.59/9 IP, which was significantly lower than his college numbers.  But after being promoted to Triple-A Iowa this season, a transformation occurred.  In 37.1 innings at Iowa, Samardzija struck out 40 batters.  That, along with a timely Kerry Wood injury, earned him a promotion to the majors, where in three appearances he has struck out six batters in five innings.  Apparently, now that he’s been able to focus on pitching full-time, he’s been able to mature as a pitcher.  I disagree with Tom on one point.  Tom said that Samardzija is now the new Carlos Marmol of the Cubs, and isn’t worth a flier.  Well last year and this year Marmol has been owned in all five leagues I am in, so if he’s the next Marmol, I will definitely take a flier.  Although I wouldn’t expect huge things from Samardzija this year, he can give you solid strikeouts and good peripherals.  Heck, any player whose name is harder to spell then mine gets my attention!  Grab Samardzija, and practice spelling his name, because you will want to hang onto this Mother Lode!

 

IAN STEWART, 2B/3B, ROCKIES

Finally getting the chance to start in the big leagues, Rockies top prospect Ian Stewart is making quite an impression on the state of Colorado.  Since being called up as a replacement for the injured Todd Helton, Stewart has done nothing but hit.  It should be noted that the Rockies have done nothing but win in that span, going 7-3 since his call-up.  With Garrett Atkins now shifted over to first base, Stewart is going to be playing mostly third base and, as an added bonus, he is already second-base-eligible due to the Troy Tulowitzki injury.  That has to count for something!  In his first eight games since being called back up, Stewart has hit .438 with 14 hits, one HR, and 12 RBI.  The Rockies, and fantasy owners, have to love seeing that out of Stewart.  The other good news is that Todd Helton is not expected back from the DL until mid-August.  So, we are talking about some pretty significant playing time for at least 2 to 3 more weeks.  This should allow enough time for owners to really get an idea of the impact Stewart may have on the stretch run.  The question is -- is it time to buy on Stewart, or is he just another Jay Bruce toying with our emotions? 

STATS (through July 29th)AB:  97  AVG:  .309  HR:  4  RBI:  19  R:  13  SB:  0

Tom:  He has been on a lot of fantasy owners’ radar for a number of years.  After reaching top-five status on Baseball America’s top prospects list, many fantasy owners were licking their chops just waiting for his eventual call-up to the majors.   Well, he is here and he is making quite the impression.  Many people are looking at Stewart as a short-term solution, but I think he’s here to stay.  Todd Helton really is nothing more than a “nice” player at this point in his career.  The Rockies are not going to make another miraculous run to the playoffs this year, which means one thing -- let the young guys play.  Atkins has shifted over to first base to make room for Stewart at third base, who may also get some at-bats at second base.  The second base eligibility is intriguing.  This time of year it’s hard to find good help in the middle of the infield, so this is almost a godsend.  Stewart has some plus pop in his bat, and as he gets acclimated to playing everyday, you will see him become more comfortable at the plate.  I made room for Stewart on my roster because I think he is the real Jay Bruce.  He may not impact the fantasy world in the way that Ryan Braun did last year, but he is a great option at both third and second base.  Mother Lode!

Matt:  Stewart made Baseball America’s list on the basis of his outstanding 2004 campaign, in which he hit .319 with 30 HR, 31 doubles, and 19 SB.  However, hamstring injuries ensued, Garrett Atkins overtook him in the race to the majors, and it looked like his career had stalled.  He was called up to the Rockies in 2007 but didn’t show much, batting only .209 over 43 AB with one HR and nine RBI.  Stewart started 2008 in the minors but was called up on May 24th and spent about a month with the Rockies before being sent down again.  He was recalled again on July 19th, and all indications are that he will stick with the big club.  Stewart is a pull hitter with quick wrists and good bat speed.  He also plays decent defense at second base and third base.  His one negative is plate discipline.  He has struck out 38 times and only walked eight times in 97 AB this season.  For Stewart to sustain his early success, he will need to vastly improve those numbers.  However, even when Helton returns, and Atkins moves back to third base, if Stewart can prove his worth at the plate and in the field, he could remain the starter at second base.  Strictly as a third baseman, his fantasy output would be acceptable, but when you factor in his second base eligibility, he becomes the Mother Lode!

 

JORGE CAMPILLO, SP, ATL

Jorge Campillo was originally signed by the Atlanta Braves way back in 1996 but only spent one season in the Braves system before being released.  Campillo then pitched in the Mexican League until 2005, at which point he signed with the Seattle Mariners.  His Seattle career got off to a rough start. He only pitched in two games with the Mariners before suffering a shoulder injury and undergoing Tommy John surgery.  His Mariner career never really got off the ground, and he only appeared in eight games with the Mariners between 2005 and 2007 before becoming a free agent at the end of the 2007 season, when he signed with the Braves for the second time.  Campillo is a soft thrower who relies on control and changing speeds to get hitters out.  In 2008, he has pitched well for the Braves, compiling a 5-4 record with a 2.78 ERA in 94.0 innings.  The Braves have already traded Mark Teixeira, and more veterans could be on the move as well. With a revamped team, will Campillo be able to match his stats from the first half of the season, or will he fade into obscurity?  Matt and Tom must have an opinion banging around their heads. Guys, what say you?

STATS (through July 29th):  IP:  101.0  W-L:  5-4  SV:  0  ERA:  2.76  WHIP:  1.06  K:  70

MATT:  As our faithful readers know, I am not a big fan of soft tossers.  Give me strikeouts, strikeouts, and more strikeouts, especially when that soft tosser is turning 30 in less than 2 weeks and has only pitched 118.2 innings at the major league level.  With the trade of Teixeira, the Braves are in full retooling mode, and I can see Campillo getting pushed out of the rotation before the end of the season to allow the Braves a look at some of their younger starters.  In fact, the beginning of the end may be coming sooner.  In June, Campillo pitched 31.0 innings and gave up three home runs and seven walks, while striking out 20 batters.  In July, he has pitched 33.2 innings and given up 5 home runs and nine walks, while striking out 17 batters.  His ERA and WHIP both decreased significantly from June to July, but if he continues to give up more home runs and walks, while striking out fewer hitters, there is no way he can sustain those low ratios.  If you can work him into a deal, do it before his value bottoms out and you are stuck with Fool’s Gold.

TOM:  I’m rarely surprised when a young Braves pitcher comes from out of nowhere and makes an immediate impact.  It’s like when the San Antonio Spurs draft an International player -- as you can see, I’m getting really excited about the forthcoming NBA season.  The Braves are the kind of team that turns fool’s gold into mother lodes.  Is that the case with Campillo?  I don’t think it is.  Campillo, as Matt noted, is a soft tosser, and although his cumulative numbers look very good, this past month he really hasn’t been more than your average, middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.  His 17 strikeouts in his last 33.2 innings pitched are not impressive at all.  In the month of July (five starts) Campillo went 2-2 with a 3.21 ERA.  Those numbers are OK, but they aren’t game changers.  He started the season in middle relief and before being named a starter, he was able to sustain a sub-1.00 ERA for nearly 2 months.  Again, he’s the kind of pitcher who is probably going to remain as a number four or five pitcher and may wind up a long reliever.  Think Brian Bannister and then make your own conclusion.  As for me, I am going to call him Fool’s Gold until I see him start striking out more batters. 

 

CHRIS DAVIS, 1B, TEX

A fifth-round draft pick of the Rangers back in 2006, Chris Davis has made it to the majors in less than three seasons due to his big bat.  In 275 minor league games, he hit 74 home runs.  Unfortunately he also struck out 288 times in that span.  Davis is a 22-year-old left-handed hitter who stands 6'4" and weighs in at 235 pounds.  A classic power hitter, Davis is not afraid to swing hard.  When he makes contact, the ball goes a long way. When he doesn't, he strikes out.  Like many young hitters, Davis has problems with breaking pitches and has a tendency to try to pull the ball instead of just putting it in play.  With Hank Blalock out again with an injury, the Rangers would love to see Davis at third base.  In fact, he's now fielding grounders there during practice. Unfortunately, his range is below average, and his future will be at first base.  So the question is:  Will Chris Davis be the first baseman the Rangers have been looking for since trading Mark Teixeira away a year ago -- or is he another flash in the pan?  Matt and Tom -- what do you think of this native Texan's chances of long-term success?

STATS (through July 29th)AB:  107  AVG:  .290  HR: 10  RBI: 20  R:  24  SB:  0

Matt:  They say everything is bigger in Texas, and Chris Davis doesn’t disappoint.  Davis is a big, strong kid (he just turned 22 in March) who can hit the ball a country mile.  While poring over his numbers, one thing really jumps out--his splits versus right-handed and left-handed pitchers.  Even though Davis bats from the left side, his numbers against lefthanders are significantly better.  In 33 at-bats against lefthanders, Davis is hitting .333 with four home runs and seven RBI.  In 74 at-bats against righthanders, Davis is hitting .270 with six home runs and 13 RBI.  Granted, this is a small sample size, but it is definitely noteworthy.  If Davis can increase his productivity against righties, even if he loses some productivity against lefties, he will be a better hitter overall.  Remember, he is facing righthanders more than twice as often as lefthanders.  Even if his splits remain consistent, Davis is a good investment for your fantasy team.  He is hitting for a good average, has power, and his ability to drive in runs should improve.  No, he’s not going to be a threat to steal a base, but how many first basemen truly are?  Lance Berkman is the only one who’ll give you more than one SB per month.  If Davis is still sitting on your waiver wire, feel free to grab him, especially if you need power.  Because when it comes to power, Davis is the Mother Lode!

Tom:  Chris Davis is yet another big bat from the Rangers farm system who's made his way up through the ranks only to have an immediate impact with the team.  Davis has arrived, ladies and gentlemen.  With 10 home runs in his first 107 at-bats, Davis looks like he is going to be a great source of power.  The one drawback, which we see often in young power bats, is that he has already struck out 27 times in those 107 at-bats.  Is he going to improve those numbers?  I think he will.  At this point in the season, you’re most likely looking to improve in a specific category or two.  So, if power numbers are where you are looking to gain an advantage, then consider Davis a godsend.  In overall fantasy impact, however, I don't think you're going to get much more from him –- he has only 20 RBI, six walks, and zero steals.  Those aren’t very impressive numbers.  We’ve talked about one-category players, and for the most part, I am never sold on taking a flier on a guy like Davis.  But this late in the season, sometimes you have to do what you have to do.  If he is available in your league, and you think you can handle having a player on your team who will offer only power numbers, pick up Davis.  I think he’s going to make an impact for the remainder of the season, and this late in the game, you should consider taking a guy like Chris Davis. You might be very happy with the production he can provide.  Mother Lode!   

Is it too hot out there for you?  Well Matt and Tom think it is and would love some advice on how to stay cool.  And please don't tell us to take a long walk off a short pier.  We tried that already!  Contact Matt at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and Tom at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

 

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