Each week, we gather the RotoExperts team of analysts together to ask them a relevant fantasy basketball question. We look forward to your questions and comments, so don’t hesitate to contact Kyle Stack at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or Jeff Andriesse at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

QUESTION: Which NBA rookie is in the best position to maximize his fantasy potential in 2008-09?
The NBA Draft is annually one of the great nights of the year if you're a basketball fan. The fates of entire franchises are in the balance and the best amateur players in the world are scrutinized under the hot lights at Madison Square Garden. But what happens when the pomp and circumstance dies down, when the flash bulbs stop going off, and when David Stern is no longer there to hold your hand while smiling awkwardly? In no time, the life of an NBA rookie will change dramatically. In exchange for a hefty contract (most even larger than what they earned in college!), the rookies are thrust into a brutal game of Survivor. Not only must they learn to play 82 games instead of 30, but their teammates and opponents are bigger, stronger, faster, and none too keen on a 19-year-old taking their job. If you are developing a fantasy man-crush on an upstart NBA rookie, it is best to remember that the first season in The League is unforgiving (at best) to a crop of rooks that gets younger and younger every year.

Just last season, only Kevin Durant and Al Horford were worthy fantasy starters on a week-to-week basis. Not until end of the season did we start to see dividends from the rookie class, when players such as Thaddeus Young, Luis Scola, Al Thornton, Rodney Stuckey, Joakim Noah, Jeff Green, and Daequan Cook became occasional fantasy options. The jury is still out on many of the top picks from '07, most notably Mike Conley, Yi Jianlian, Corey Brewer, and Brandan Wright...all of whom were taken among the top eight picks.

In other words, proceed with caution with rookies. Still, seasoned fantasy sleuths need to be ready to pounce on any rookie who dares buck the trend. There will be some overachievers from the 2008 draft class, just as there will be busts. Thankfully, you have the RotoExperts team to help you sort through it all.

This week, we asked the RotoExperts to prognosticate which rookie has found himself in the best situation to maximize his fantasy potential.

Baskets won't come this easy for Michael Beasley in his first year in the NBA, but the No. 2 overall pick does enter a favorable fantasy situation in Miami.  Photo Credit:  eeerteeert

MICHAEL BEASLEY, SF/PF, MIAMI HEAT
Matt Wirkiowski: The rookie who will best maximize his fantasy potential this year is Michael Beasley.  He is in a perfect situation, in that he has both Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion around him and won't be expected to carry the team right away.  Look to take Beasley in the fifth round of your draft, and expect to get 15 points, five boards, and three assists, with nearly one block and one steal per game.

Jonathan Huang: There's only one choice (at least for me) -- Michael Beasley.  I'll say one thing right off the bat though: Beasley will get drafted way too early this season, much like Kevin Durant last year.  Now that I've made that clear, it was an easy choice. O.J. Mayo will shoot and shoot, have a low FG%, and yield a high number of TO's, while Greg Oden is going to put up just average numbers with all the scorers around him in Portland.  Kevin Love and Derrick Rose will both have playing time questions.  Additionally, Beasley's situation in Miami is promising, as he'll probably start right away at small forward or power forward.  Either way, he'll get big minutes. The Bease will score and rebound (I expect anywhere from 13-17 points, 6-7 rebounds) and block maybe a shot per game.  However, his fantasy potential really rides on who remains with the Miami Heat team.  If, say, Shawn Marion gets moved, Beasley instantly becomes a top-50 fantasy player.

Chris Ryan: The obvious answer is, of course, Michael Beasley, but I think it was Sherlock Holmes who once said, "There is nothing as deceptive as an obvious fact."  With that in mind, I began thinking to myself, could it be Jerryd Bayless, who's playing on a very potent Portland team and is coming off an unbelievable summer league performance?  Could it be top pick Derrick Rose?  How about the double-double machine that will be Kevin Love?  Maybe Eric Gordon averages 20 points and a couple of three-pointers a game. Hell, Beasley's teammate Mario Chalmers could end up starting and averaging over 7 assists-per-game.  Anything's possible (Ramon Sessions anyone?).  Unfortunately, the further into my research I got, the more I realized that maybe this time, the obvious answer was the right answer.  Bayless has too much competition and is trying to learn a new position.  Rose has Kirk Hinrich to deal with.  Love will be solid, but not outstanding. Gordon will turn the ball over a ton... and he's a Clipper. Chalmers...well, he honestly could be the steal of the draft, but I'm not going out on a limb that thin unless it's to save a cat or hide from the cops, so he's out.  That brings me back to Beasley.  The man is fantastically gifted, has a guaranteed starting spot, can score from anywhere on the court, and led the NCAA in rebounding last year.  So despite my reluctance to side with the obvious, I feel completely confident in saying that Michael Beasley is without a doubt, 100% guaranteed to produce the best fantasy stats among rookies in '08.

DARRELL ARTHUR, SF/PF, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Tommy Landry: If you look back to the NBA Draft Recap that Tom Lorenzo and I wrote earlier this summer, you'll see that I was very optimistic about Courtney Lee. I still like him a lot to contribute, but with Mickael Pietrus added to the mix and likely to start, Lee will serve a sixth-man role for the most part.  I actually had two other guys just behind him, and I think they both have a stellar chance of leaping onto the fantasy map this season.

Kevin Love showed in one short college season that he has what it takes to develop into a Brad Miller clone over time. Lining up next to Al Jefferson, who requires a lot of defensive attention when Minnesota has the ball, will help Love excel right out of the gate. And even better, he'll improve as he gets more accustomed to the NBA pace.

But as much as I like Love this year, I'm even more hyped about the guy who Memphis decided to keep when they agreed to trade away "Baby Brad": Darrell Arthur. Don't worry about Arthur's health, nor his opportunity, as he should be in line for big minutes on a team devoid of frontline talent. And with running mates Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol also expected to start next to him, the Memphis frontcourt suddenly looks like it has a future.

Tom Lorenzo: Of course I can see Michael Beasley starting off hot this October and being the rookie with the most immediate impact.  I also think that Russell Westbrook will get a lot of playing time with Earl Watson out injured for a few months, but the one rookie who I think is in line to maximize his fantasy potential immediately is Darrell Arthur of the Memphis Grizzlies.  Arthur is in position to start early on and show his worth.  The Grizzlies are a young team and they are hoping to give players like Arthur, O.J. Mayo, and Marc Gasol opportunities to make plays early on.  I think Arthur is a guy you can grab in the late rounds and see his numbers in points, rebounds, and blocked shots all flourish in the early part of the season.   

KEVIN LOVE, PF/C, MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Christopher Bangs: Kevin Love is in position to immediately put up very good fantasy numbers. He has been handed the starting power forward slot by the T-Wolves.  Love is strong post player, in addition to having a decent outside shot, a body built for rebounding, and good passing instincts for a big man.  I expect Minnesota's offense to sometimes run through him in a role similar to a point-forward, and he should be able to dish out of the post to an open Mike Miller a few times a game.  Love will post stat lines that I love: decent point totals and around a block per game, along with a healthy amount of rebounds and assists.

O.J. MAYO, PG/SG, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Paul Bourdett: With apologies to Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, I'm going with O.J. Mayo. While Rose is certainly in a position to play solid minutes, rookie point guards often take a year or two to really come into their own (Chris Paul being the exception, of course). Plus, with Ben Gordon [Editor's Note: Assuming he re-signs with the Bulls, rather than leaving for Europe like he just threatened], Andres Nocioni, Larry Hughes, and Luol Deng around, Rose's primary role will be as playmaker.  Beasley should fit in nicely in Miami, but with Dwyane Wade and Shawn Marion still in town, his touches will be limited (and there's no telling how he'll cope with that). In Memphis, Mayo should see major minutes right away, and he'll find plenty of opportunity to fill up the boxscore with the departure of Mike Miller. In my opinion, Mayo is the most versatile player in the rookie class, and he will contribute in points, assists, and steals.  His upside is 20/5/5, but I'll keep expectations conservative and have him at 16/4/4 with around 1.5 steals per game -- numbers good enough to win him Rookie of the Year.  

SUMMARY
Not surprisingly, No. 1 pick Derrick Rose didn't receive a vote. Rose is stuck on a team that already employs a proven point guard in Kirk Hinrich, thus putting his opportunity to shine in question. He's still worth a late round pick, but expectations should be tempered. Beasley, the No. 2 pick, is a natural offensive player and probably the first rookie to fly off most draft boards. Mayo goes to a barren Memphis team laid to waste by Chris Wallace. His instincts are already to chuck as often as possible, and the Grizz have doubled their order of backup rims for this year as a precaution. Love is a fantastic prospect, albeit one with a ceiling. He'll put up good numbers as a rookie with the T-Wolves. Roadblocks await most of the other rookies, which leads us to the Landry/Lorenzo fave, Arthur. A gaping hole at power forward exists in Memphis, and Arthur will have to deal with competition from only Hakim Warrick and the annually-disappointing Darko Milicic for minutes. Arthur has an NBA-ready frame and some motivation after falling all the way to No. 27 on draft night.

There remains too many concerns about playing time with Westbrook, Gordon, Milwaukee SF/PF Joe Alexander, and Charlotte PG D.J. Augustin.

Bayless joins a deep Portland squad that traded Jarrett Jack to make room for him, but there's a slew of competition for PG minutes in Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez, and Sergio Rodriguez.

Deep rookie sleepers worth keeping an eye on as roles solidify early in the season include Courtney Lee, Indiana's Roy Hibbert, Sacramento's Jason Thompson, Houston's Joey Dorsey, and Mario Chalmers.

Kyle Stack and Jeff Andriesse are rookies themselves (on the RotoExperts staff), although they have found that the size, strength, and speed of their editors are nothing special. Still, Kyle and Jeff are getting a little sick of the hazing and can't wait for the fantasy hoops season to get underway. Email your comments and questions to Kyle at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and Jeff at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed