The RotoExperts team and a special guest discuss the fantasy value of Marvin Harrison in 2008.

Each week, our RotoExperts give their take on a very important fantasy football issue. This time, they tackle the latest question with further input from a former NFL wide receiver.

This week's question: Do you expect Marvin Harrison to bounce back in 2008?

Matt Wirkiowski: Harrison is certainly on his way to the Hall of Fame. He had a stretch of eight consecutive years of catching at least 80 balls for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns from 1999 to 2006.  However, Harrison turns 36 in a couple of weeks, and is coming off of a season in which he played in only five games, catching 20 passes. The Indianapolis Colts have Super Bowl aspirations.  Thus, they need to put the players on the field that give them the best chance to win games, get home-field advantage, and win that Super Bowl.  Sadly, Harrison just can't give that to them anymore.  Reggie Wayne passed Harrison on the depth chart two years ago, and this year, Anthony Gonzalez should do the same.  If he stays healthy, Harrison could give you decent numbers: 55-to-60 receptions, 700 yards and six touchdowns.  But you would be foolish to draft Harrison expecting his 2006 numbers.

Chris Ryan: Being an avid Colts fan, I've been thinking long and hard on this subject since last January.  All reports out of training camp seem to indicate that Harrison is just fine.  They say he's running, cutting and catching like the Marvin of old.  The knee is not an issue, they say.  Of course, they said the same thing last year.  Considering Indianapolis' Belichick-ian way of reporting injuries, I won’t believe anything unless I can see it with my own two eyes.  I went out to camp this past week hoping to catch a glimpse of Harrison, but he was nowhere to be found; ditto for the first preseason game.  Luckily, most drafts won't be commencing for several weeks, so there's still time to get a look at the soon-to-be 36-year old wideout before deciding where to slot him on your board.  If he looks healthy and has no setbacks -- and assuming that we don't find out that he was actually the triggerman in Philly -- then go ahead and consider Marvin good to go. His numbers will be somewhat limited, though, due to the emergence of players like Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark.  My expectations if the knee is healthy?  80 catches, 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Ben Ice: Marvin Harrison has been one of the best wide receivers in NFL history and is likely a first ballot Hall of Famer.  Indy fans point to his “freak” accident and his movement during camp as a sign that he will return to his former prominence. The problem with this thinking is that first, it doesn’t matter that the accident was a freak one. The bottom line is he injured his knee. At 36, he will heal more slowly, and there are players waiting in the wings that are younger and healthier who will take reps away from him. Will he be a viable WR? No one really knows.  The bigger question is how much he will trust his repaired knee. If his confidence isn’t there, he won’t cut as crisply as usual, which means his routes won’t be as good. Right now I have Harrison as a high-risk/high-reward sleeper, meaning I wouldn’t trust him for anything more than a WR3.  He is one of those players you hope will return to form, but injuries and age temper those expectations for a smart fantasy owner.

Mike Gilbert: Much love for Marvin Harrison on his way to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but I don't see how he can bounce back to his former level of production.  At age 36, he is coming back from an inflamed bursa sac in his left knee (an affliction that seems to be spreading in Indy) and arthroscopic surgery on his right knee.  For a player of his age, whose greatness is based on top notch route running, these injuries won't necessarily be career killers, but they will likely prevent him from being physically able to do it like he used to.  Other than an injury-shortened 2007, Harrison hasn't posted under 1,100 yards receiving since 1998.  For an old guy with two bad knees, these levels of production are unattainable, even if he was the primary weapon in the Colts' passing game.  Reggie Wayne has supplanted Harrison as Peyton Manning's No. 1 target. Wayne is peaking right now, and Manning knows that he will be the best option on most plays.  Having said all that, it is possible for Harrison to be Manning's No.2 option, strictly based on the fact that Manning is not yet fully comfortable with second-year man Anthony Gonzalez.  Gonzalez's output was all or nothing in '07, and he won't get the opportunity to develop a rapport with Manning in training camp due to the quarterback's absence.  If Harrison's injuries allow him to take the field in '08, look for about half of his usual yardage, though he's still a trusted red zone target and will produce a few TDs there.

Jonathan Phillips: With just 70 receptions this year, Marvin Harrison will pass Cris Carter for second on the all-time list, behind only Jerry Rice. If there's an appropriate comparison to be made here, Harrison is somewhat akin to Rice. Prior to last season, he dominated his position for the previous eight years, has rarely been injured, and almost has a sixth-sense type connection to his quarterback. I don't expect he'll lead the Colts in receptions as in years past, but he'll get those 70 unless injury recurs.  I think a relapse is unlikely because Harrison has a small frame, which works to his advantage.  The less weight he is exerting on those knees, the better. I expect Harrison to fall the sixth round in most drafts. His Average Draft Position in ESPN.com drafts right now is 63.3. The experts on Mock Draft Central have him a little higher up, as he barely made it into the fifth round.  I don't think the risk will be as high as the reward here, as in the last eight years, Harrison has tallied double-digit TDs. You'll most likely get the value of Reggie Wayne when he was a WR2, and on the Colts, that's pretty damn good.

Brad Rysz: Although 13-year veteran Marvin Harrison is coming off injuries on BOTH knees, I expect him to contribute to fantasy teams in 2008.  Harrison's progress has been so impressive that he may actually see the field for the Colts August 9 preseason game against Carolina.  Harrison hasn't accumulated nearly 14,000 career receiving yards and 123 touchdowns because of his size or speed; it's because he is a superior route runner, an incredibly smart football player, and has had one of the league's premier quarterbacks throwing him the ball for the past 10 seasons. Defenses will focus on Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, leaving Harrison to pick on young and inexperienced cornerbacks. He isn't a No. 1 wide receiver anymore, but he will score and can be a respectable No. 3 wideout for someone's fantasy team.

Mark Strausberg: Since Marvin Harrison and I graduated from the same school (The 'Cuse!) at about the same time, I want to say yes.  He has been one of my favorite players for a long time.  He's been a valuable member of my various winning fantasy teams over the years, as well.  But Reggie Wayne has surpassed him, and Anthony Gonzalez is on the rise.  There's no mistaking that he's been in decline, but I can't shake this feeling that he bounces back this year for one final hurrah before we see his numbers go off a cliff in 2009. I'm usually one to back my opinions with strong support, whether it is statistics, roster moves, schedule analysis or whatever, but I can't do it here. If you can get him late, say in the seventh round like Matthew Greber did in our staff's mock draft, the reward far outweighs the risk.  So yes, Harrison bounces back, but it is a biased, purely gut call.

Matthew Greber: I absolutely expect a bounce back season, at least in terms of what he produced last year.  He's not the Marvin Harrison of old -- i.e., a league leader in all relevant receiving stats -- but he's not the Harrison of last year either. He's getting picked as a WR2/WR3 currently, which is preposterous. Sure, he's older now and he has a lot of yards on his legs -- but he plays for the most potent offense outside of Boston (and really, don't the Colts have a longer track record of a scary offense than the Pats?) and has just a bad 2007 behind him.  I do think that Anthony Gonzalez is going to have a breakout year - but that doesn't all have to come at the expense of Harrison.  There are more than enough balls to go around, and I think unless Harrison skyrockets up in draft position, his owners are getting a bargain at this price.

Tommy Landry: Is it possible?  Yes.  Just ask Joey Galloway. Will it happen?  Very unlikely.  Harrison has established himself as a premier speedster and route runner, both of which require intact knees.  Sure, he looks good now, and he could even start the season with 50, 60, 70, maybe 100-yard games in the early going.  But one lick on that knee, and you can kiss your fantasy playoffs goodbye.  Unless I can get Harrison really late, I'd rather have Reggie Wayne or Anthony Gonzalez on my fantasy team.  I might take him when the "sure things" (as if there was ever such a thing in fantasy football) are off the board, but that's at least the fifth or sixth round in typical-sized leagues. What are the odds he'll still be there?  Exactly.  Pass.

Oronde Gadsden (Miami Dolphins WR from 1998 to 2003, Fantasy Football owner since 2004): I don't think you are going to see the typical Harrison year. Reggie Wayne has become the No. 1 guy, there's the gun incident, and the knee injuries. Once or twice during the year, those knee problems are going to pop up and nag him. He didn't come back effectively last year, and at his age, you can't just recuperate from a knee injury like you used to.  You need at least a good year to fully come back from knee problems.  His best years are gone.  Fantasy-wise, I would still take him in the sixth or seventh round as a WR2.  He might have hit a wall because of age even without the injuries, and Wayne has really stepped up and will cut into his numbers.  Harrison may have a decent year but it won't be good enough to compare to his best seasons.

SUMMARY: Last season, ESPN reported that Harrison could be dealing with knee pain for the rest of his career, and Tony Dungy recently told reporters that they don't intend to rush him.  He might not play until the third or fourth preseason game, although he remains on track for the regular season.  Most of our staffers, as well as Oronde Gadsden, seem to agree that Harrison isn't going to be what he once was, even if he can stay on the field. Personally, a guy who is about to be 36 and has issues in both knees really scares me as a fantasy owner.  Like many of our writers, I have a ton of respect for what Harrison has accomplished.  Yet I fear that the knee issues are going to rob him of playing time and may affect his abilities to get open regularly when he can play.  If any wide receiver can prove me wrong, it would be Harrison, but I really think this could be the end for him because of age and physical issues.  I'm not worried about the off-field stuff, as he is a professional. Many of our staffers seem to think that Harrison is still capable of posting pretty good numbers, but I am going to let someone else worry about him this season and avoid him on draft day.  I think Gonzalez really has won Manning over quickly and is a big sleeper.  I absolutely love Wayne as an elite fantasy receiver and I'm expecting a terrific season from Dallas Clark.  The Colts are going to be Super Bowl-worthy again, but Harrison isn't going to help you win a fantasy title.  He will only frustrate you, as you wonder whether or not he will play.  Harrison has never been brittle, but the age/health concerns right now appear to be a deadly combination from the fantasy perspective, no matter what he has done in the past.

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