A big "Mother Lode" welcome to Jon Philips, who is filling in for Tom Lorenzo this week.  Tom is making a cross-country move from New York City to San Diego and is in the process of getting settled in, but he will return next week, better (and warmer) than ever.  Jon writes "Small Market Mania"’ here at RotoExperts.com, so if you don’t already read his weekly column, you should definitely check it out – good stuff!  Well, here we are in the second week of August, and every four years that means The Olympics are here.  In fact, the Opening Ceremonies were last night.  Did you know you can play Fantasy Olympics?  You have to believe that Michael Phelps would be the number one overall pick in any league.  Go Team USA!  Well, in between watching team handball and the modern pentathlon, you’ll probably want to check in on your fantasy baseball team.  In your fantasy league, your league’s trade deadline is probably coming up fast, so once that day is past, the only avenue you’ll have open to you to improve your team is the waiver wire.  So who is out on your wire right now that can help?  Who is out there that you should avoid?  Matt and Jon are going to break down a couple of hitters plus the Oakland bullpen this week, and give you the detailed analysis you know and love to help you make informed decisions and win your league.  So let’s check out the action on the diamonds and find the Mother Lode.

Gotta love a guy who can single-handedly win you stolen bases. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

EMILIO BONIFACIO, 2B, WAS

Emilio Bonifacio was traded to the Nationals from the Diamondbacks in the deal that brought Jon Rauch to Arizona.  Bonifacio is a switch-hitting Punch-and-Judy hitter with outstanding speed.  Not only does he have outstanding speed, but he is an excellent base-runner.  His primary liabilities on offense are not enough walks and too many strikeouts.   After spending a couple weeks at Triple-A Columbus following the trade to Washington, Bonifacio was called up and inserted into the starting lineup following the release of Felipe Lopez.  Bonifacio played eight games with the Diamondbacks before being traded, but in his second stint in the majors, Bonifacio is hitting .364 with zero home runs, two RBI and one stolen base.  He has also struck out five times and has zero walks in 22 AB with Washington.  The Nationals will give Bonifacio every opportunity to earn the starting second base job in 2009.  In fact, at this point it is his job to lose.  But what is Bonifacio's value for the rest of this year?  Will his OBP be high enough to allow him to run enough to be worth a pick-up?  Let’s see what Matt and Jon have to say on the matter.

STATS (through August 6th):  AB:  34  AVG:  .294  HR:  0  RBI:  4  R:  7  SB:  2

Matt:  Baseball America ranked Bonifacio as the number six prospect in the Arizona system at the beginning of the year.  Unfortunately for him, the Diamondbacks didn’t have a spot for him on the major league roster.  They would have liked to insert him at shortstop, but his defense was never good enough, while his defense at second base has been better than average.  The move to Washington was exactly what he needed, and the Nationals accommodated him by waiving Felipe Lopez.  At the start of the season, I remember a lot of hype about another speedy second baseman, Eugenio Velez of the Giants.  For all that hype, he’s only produced 10 stolen bases, and a .207 average in 57 games.  Another speedy second baseman that comes to mind is Luis Castillo.  Castillo stole 193 bases from 1999-2002, and his career batting average is a very respectable .293.  So where does Bonifacio project?  Castillo played in 160 games total his first three seasons in the bigs, and stole 36 bases before his breakout 1999 campaign.  Castillo’s batting average for those three seasons was .236.  Taking what we know about Castillo, and what we’ve seen from Velez and Bonifacio so far, my expectation is that it’s going to take Bonifacio time to adjust to playing in the majors.  It’s imperative for the young second baseman to cut down on the strikeouts, and be more patient and work the pitchers for more walks.  Unless you really need the steals, I would pass on Bonifacio this season, but if you are in a dynasty league – I would stash him on my bench as next year should be his year.  But for this year, he is Fool’s Gold!

Jon:  I have to assume Emilio Bonifacio was certain his chance at gold was lost, at least for the moment.  Buried under Orlando Hudson and Alberto Callaspo at Arizona, it seemed he would stay in Triple-A quite a while, depending on Arizona's stance on Hudson at the end of the year.  Injuries helped his cause, and he was called up, appropriately enough, on Independence Day, as if his trials were finally over.  Not quite.  He played eight games, but managed only a .167 average.  Although he did swipe a bag, he struck out four times in 12 at-bats.  Not the kind of ratio the D-Backs wanted when Bonifacio's job is to use his speed by getting on base.  This is the same kid that at 16 was clocked at a 6.2, 60-yard dash and stole 61 bases at High-A Lancaster in 130 games.  In Triple-A Tucson, he stole 17 bases in 85 games.  After the trade, he stole four more bags in eight games with Columbus.  Both Triple-A clubs saw him bat over .300.  Now in D.C., he's virtually guaranteed the starting job at second base atop the Nationals' order.  His .45 batting eye and lack of walks (31 in 398 at-bats) during the 2008 minor league campaign is worrisome, and his 0.83 contact rate is not elite.  Still, since his call up in Washington, Bonifacio looks more like the Triple-A phenom: 8-for-22, a double and another stolen base.  He's 23, but at present he is a Michael Bourn clone with upside.  This late in the year, even with his low OBP tendency, he's among the few out there guaranteed to get you two categories--steals and runs.  So, if you're not worried about making up ground in the batting average category, he's the Mother Lode.

MITCH MAIER, OF, KC

Mitch Maier was originally drafted as a catcher out of the University of Toledo by the Royals in the first round of the 2003 draft.  Interestingly, in 2004 he stole 34 bases.  While in the minors, Maier was moved from catcher to third base because of his poor defense and promptly committed 28 errors in 119 games.  The Royals then decided he should be a corner outfielder, which is where he plays today.  Maier does everything well, but nothing great.  He plays above-average defense, hits for average, has adequate power, good speed, and very good baserunning instincts.  The main reason he hasn’t developed as projected is his inability to hit breaking balls on even a semi-regular basis.  Since being called up on July 24, Maier has appeared in 11 games, hitting .286 with no HR and three RBI.  With Kansas City essentially out of the playoff race (again), the Royals have the luxury to see if their 26-year-old prospect will become anything more than a fourth outfielder.  Matt and Jon – what do you think about Mr. Maier’s future?

STATS (through August 6th):  AB:  35  AVG:  .286  HR:  0  RBI:  4  R:  3  SB:  0

Matt:  Although the Royals seem to be committed to playing him every day to see what he can give them, I am not sure that Maier will ever be anything more than a fourth outfielder.  Maier has had a grand total of 48 ABs at the major league level.  If this kid had major league skills and tools, he would’ve been called up and stayed up long before now.  His best season was in 2006, when in Double-A Wichita, he hit .306 with 14 home runs, 92 RBI, and 13 stolen bases.  23 years old is a little old for Double-A, so if 14 home runs is the best he could muster, I don’t see him getting a sudden power surge.  If you are more of a glass-half-full kind of guy – and want some potentially encouraging news, then look at the 64 doubles he had between Double-A and Triple-A in 2006 and 2007.  If he can get a little stronger, and can turn some of those doubles into home runs, then you could see that power surge.  I don’t see it.  I see a player who will either be a fourth outfielder in the majors, or will start and put up fourth outfielder-type numbers.  Either way, you’re looking at Fool’s Gold!

Jon:  No one drafted Barry Bonds expecting the ridiculous power he showed later in his career (no one expected he'd pump himself up like the Michelin tire man either). Originally, Mitch Maier was drafted as a catcher who could steal bases – an odd combination that was bound to change.  Maier has been moved to third base and now outfield.  In 2006, he lit up Double-A Wichita, batting .306 with 35 doubles, seven triples, and 14 home runs after struggling in 2005 with a .252 average.  In the 2007 fall league, he slugged his way to a .350 average with the Grand Canyon Rafters.  In Triple-A this year, he was batting .316 with a 0.88 contact rate after posting a .279 average last year.  Although he made little impression in spring training (0-for-15 with 4 K), since his recall, he's 10-for-32.  If you follow Maier's progression, you see a player with a heck of a lot of pop in his bat, who struggles initially each time he moves forward, then adjust and pounds the ball.  With Joey Gathright never living up to the hype and the Royals desperately in need of a bat, I expect Maier will be a fill-in this year, and a starter next year.  Maier has no extra base hits yet, but once he figures it out again, I'd watch out.  However, this season, he'll be a fill-in at best.  Currently, he's Fool's Gold.

THE OAKLAND A'S BULLPEN

Just a few weeks back, the Oakland pitching staff was more than a competitive unit.  They had the league’s lowest ERA and lowest BAA.  For the month of August, they're in the bottom third of the league, having traded away three of their best inning eaters in Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, and Chad Gaudin.  Their bullpen is still ranked in the top five, but you can bet that will change.  Dana Eveland has been sent down to Triple-A to figure out why he couldn't get past five innings since June.  Greg Smith has been a little better, posting two quality starts, but he has garnered only one win.  Sean Gallagher could be headed to the DL, and now young Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez become part of the starting rotation.  We expect the bullpen to be tested more, and with the announcement by Bob Geren that Huston Street will not necessarily be the everyday closer, we wanted to consider who else in the Oakland bullpen might be the real deal.

BULLPEN STATS (through August 6th) IP:  334.1  W-L:  15-15  ERA:  3.28  K:  275  SV-SVO:  20-34

Matt:  Are any of the guys in the Oakland bullpen starting to get motion sickness from the merry-go-round they've been on recently?  Is Manager Bob Geren consulting his Magic 8-Ball when deciding roles?  I can picture it now--Geren asks:  “Will Huston Street be effective the rest of the year?” The response is: “Don’t count on it,” which gets him all fired up to change things around.  Oakland might be the most schizophrenic franchise in baseball.  They have a winning record, and they are within a hot streak of the playoffs, but then they trade their two best starters and blow up the bullpen.  You have to wonder what this team’s goals are.  Maybe they should have mandatory drug-testing for front office personnel as well. 

On August 2nd, Geren announced that submariner Brad Ziegler and lefty Jerry Blevins would get save opportunities along with Street, on the basis of batter matchups.  So what do you do?  If you are in a one-year league, trade Street to an owner desperate for saves.  If you’re in a dynasty league, hold Street and hope that this situation rectifies itself next year, or Street gets traded in the off-season.  Pick up Ziegler and Blevins, along with Joey Devine, but don’t pick them up looking for beaucoup saves.  Pick them up with the expectation that you’ll get outstanding peripherals (ERA, WHIP, K) and a bonus save every now and then.  By properly evaluating your team needs, and your league’s scoring system and rules, you can make the right moves for your team and turn this potential quagmire into the Mother Lode for your team.

Jon:  At the time of Santiago Casilla's elbow soreness, which put him on the DL, he had an ERA of 0.93 and a WHIP of 0.77.  Since his return June 19, there's no doubt he's not the same pitcher. And he hasn't been given a save opportunity since his return.  Add Joey Devine to that list of elbow problems, and he's fallen on the depth chart.  
Brad Ziegler has climbed the Oakland depth chart toward the closer role so fast it's hard to believe he's legitimate.  At Triple-A Sacramento, he posted a dominating 2.71 GO/AO ratio and struck out 18 in 23 2/3 IP.  Since his call up May 31, the submariner has pitched 34 consecutive innings without allowing a run.  He's struck out 15 and walked eight, garnering a WHIP of 0.82.  No, he's not overpowering, but few underarm slingers are.  But clearly his delivery helps disguise his pitches, and with the kind of control Ziegler has, and the fact Geren mentioned him as a closer option, I'm jumping on the Ziegler train.  He's the Mother Lode.  

We paired up Matt, who is a lifelong Cleveland Browns fan, with Jon, who is a lifelong Pittsburgh Steelers fan, for this week’s column… and it worked!  Next thing you know the Packers will trade Brett Favre to the Jets.  OK, bad example, but you know what we mean!  For more examples of things you never thought you’d see, or for more mundane fantasy baseball advice, shoot Matt and Jon an e-mail.  You can get Matt at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and Jon at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

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