Are you in a keeper league? I truly hope so. If you are not in a keeper league, please excuse me as I start to press your buttons. Playing in non-keeper leagues is like allowing yourself to be tortured endlessly by that kid in grade school who used to constantly call for a do-over. Remember him? I play in lots of non-keeper leagues, but when it is time to get serious, I turn to my AL, NL, and mixed keeper leagues. Anyone can get lucky and win a non-keeper league. You can also get unlucky and finish last. In keeper leagues, the cream usually rises to the top, because they involve more skill and greater effort. The strategy throughout the season is more complex, and the fight in your league mates is undying. In keeper leagues, even the also-rans have a reason to keep fighting. So, even if you love your non-keeper leagues, find a keeper league and learn what it's like to be in a real battle for roto excellence. There, did I convince you?

If you are in a keeper league, congratulations! You have been playing for keeps. This edition of Moving Up, Moving Down is dedicated to you. I have put together a list of the very best keepers in baseball. These are not just the obvious first round picks. These players, who were underpriced or undrafted this season, may just lead your squad to victory in 2009. If you already have these players on your roster, your future looks bright. Keep in mind that these are not the players having the best seasons in 2008. They're not even the players I necessarily want the most next season (but I do want them all). These are the players most likely to be great in 2009 and for years to come.

The Hitters (2007 Mixed League ADP)

Ryan Doumit (311.82), C, Pittsburgh Pirates
.331/.372/.541/12 HR/2 SB/290 AB
You cannot expect Ryan Doumit to bat .330 every season, but you can expect him to be one of the most productive catchers in baseball. This 27-year-old won’t hurt your average by hitting .275-.290, and his power, in full season at-bats, should be among the league leaders.

Owners of the "Hammer" have been all smiles this year. Photo Credit: Mikejames19

Josh Hamilton (159.3), OF, Texas Rangers
.303/.368/.557/28 HR/7 SB/458 AB
There is a Triple Crown in Josh Hamilton’s future. He can do it all, and in just his second season back from an extended absence, he is proving it. In the Rangers’ incredible lineup, he has lapped the AL field in RBI with 111 as of August 10. He has the ability to bat .300 with 40 HR and 20 SB, and he's still relatively young (27). He will be on a lot of fantasy baseball magazine covers next season. 

Matt Kemp (124.91), OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
.290/.343./.457/13 HR/26 SB/427 AB
If it seems like I mention Matt Kemp every week, it's only because I have tremendous faith that he's a future Most Valuable Fantasy Player. Next season, a 30/30 season is a lock. He hits for average, has power, steals bases, and he hits in a line-up with great potential. He’s been compared to Dave Winfield, Sammy Sosa, Vernon Wells, and Frank Robinson. How else can I convince you of Kemp’s destiny for greatness? Kemp is only 23 and is already in his second major league season. This season’s stats are just the beginning.

Ian Kinsler (69.6), 2B, Texas Rangers
.315/.374/.503/15 HR/26 SB/489 AB
According to many experts, Ian Kinsler may be the Most Valuable Fantasy Player this season. He plays a position thin in top-tier talent. He is young (26), with power and speed. He plays in a fantastic hitters’ park in the middle of a fantastic lineup. As young players like first baseman Chris Davis, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and shortstop Elvis Andrus continue to develop, they will make Kinsler’s numbers even better.

Evan Longoria (233.73), 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
.278./352./.533/22 HR/7 SB/381 AB
For some reason, which will probably remain a mystery, the Rays demoted Evan Longoria at the end of spring training. No one, including Longoria, understood, but he was recalled a few days later. Unless there's a rehab assignment in his future (knock on wood), he will never be in a minor league lineup again. Longoria is everything fantasy leaguers wanted from Royals’ third baseman Alex Gordon but failed to receive. Only 22, Longoria is a fantasy beast, and his owners are going to love the 40-home run seasons in his future.

Ryan Ludwick (>400), OF, St. Louis Cardinals
.307/.385/.614/29 HR/4 SB/381 AB
The power is nothing new. Ryan Ludwick has been clubbing homers at a tremendous rate for years. The surprising part about the newfound production is his batting average. In 2,780 minor-league at-bats, Ludwick batted only .270. The primary reason for the jump is a vastly improved contact rate. Despite Ludwick's increased plate discipline, his batting average is still going to take a big dip next season, but now that he has proven he can hit at this level, he's here to stay. Expect that batting average to dip into the .260-.275 range, but 35-40 homers will be there if he gets 500 at-bats.

Nate McLouth (304.64), OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
.277./.355/.519/22 HR/13 SB/447 AB
At age 26, Nate McLouth is emerging as one of the better outfielders in the National League. The scary aspect of this year's performance is the uncharacteristic absence of stolen bases. He swiped at least 30 bases in every full minor league season, and his speed is the asset fantasy leaguers were expecting this season. McLouth has recently commented that he would like to utilize the stolen base more in the last months of the season. This might just be just noise, but if it's not, he'll move even farther up the rankings.

Carlos Quentin (380.36), OF, Chicago White Sox
.287/.383/.572/32 HR/5 SB/418 AB
The Diamondbacks were fools to give up on Carlos Quentin so cheaply, especially when the alternative was the overrated Eric Byrnes. The 25-year-old Quentin has matched or surpassed even the most optimistic projections. This potentially perennial All-Star was auctioned for a single-digit price in most AL-only leagues. If, by some twist of fate, you have a doubter in your keeper league--pounce brother, pounce. 

Shane Victorino (103.55), OF, Philadelphia Phillies
.289/.357/.454/11 HR/27 SB/401 AB
If his stolen bases are not enough, look at Shane Victorino’s July production. A slash line of .333/.381/.619 with 7 HR and 10 SBA is production that only the very best in baseball can match. Victorino is 27 years old, but he is still developing his power game. There is a 20-homer season coming soon, from a player who steals 30 bases. That's enough to make him worthy of a first round pick. Fortunately, you listened to me in March and already own him. Right?

Kevin Youkilis (159.91), 1B, Boston Red Sox
.315./.384/.554/20 HR/3 SB/406 AB
The Greek God of Walks can hit for power. The truth is, I’m not a big fan of Kevin Youkilis. I live in Boston, and I have grown to detest his dugout tantrums after every strikeout. I do love his talent, though, and I think he’ll continue to improve his power numbers. He has the potential to bat over .300 with 30-35 homers, and I think that is the next logical step in his development.

The Pitchers (2007 Mixed League ADP)

Chad Billingsley (149.91), SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
147 IP, 155 K, 59 BB, 2.99 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
This season Chad Billingsley is the 20th ranked pitcher (15th ranked starter) in fantasy value. If his numbers had been better in April, he'd be in the top 10 right now. If the Dodgers can sign Manny Ramirez, (this is in some doubt considering their money problems), then Billingsley could earn some of the wins he deserves while waiting for Andruw Jones to be a productive batter. Those wins would put him in the top five. When we consider his age (24), it is conceivable that Billingsley will be topping the list in 2010.

Jonathan Broxton (234.36), RP, Los Angeles Dodgers
48 IP, 58 K, 18 BB, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Jonathan Broxton will finish the season as the closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He won't give up the job any time soon. In fact, next season his strikeouts and an underachieving Dodger offense should make him one of the best closers in baseball.

Joba Chamberlain (162.91), SP, New York Yankees
89 IP, 104 K, 36 BB, 2.63 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
I know you’re worried about the shoulder injury, and I don’t blame you. The Yankees are being very careful with their ace pitcher and believe he'll be starting again in September. If there are no setbacks, Joba Chamberlain should be a top starting choice in 2009. I do wonder, however, whether this injury would have happened if Chamberlain had begun the season as a starter. 

Justin Duchscherer (389.55), SP, Oakland Athletics
132.2 IP, 84 K, 33 BB, 2.51 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
At some point, Justin Duchscherer’s critics will have to admit that he is a very good pitcher. Most doubters are put off by this season's low strikeout rate. Another large group of doubters hate that he isn’t a power pitcher and relies on control and finesse to get outs. More than anything, however, his doubters don’t understand how he was able to move from the bullpen to the rotation with improved numbers. Duchscherer has been a bit lucky this season, but not so lucky that you should consider this season a fluke. His BABIP of .235 bears this out, but his career BABIP is only .271, which suggests that he's somehow capable of preventing hits. His strikeout rate is low this season (5.70), but his career rate is 6.85, which is more than acceptable. Expect his numbers to regress towards career norms next season, but have a little faith and keep this almost-certain top 15 starting pitcher. 

Cliff Lee (396.64), SP, Cleveland Indians
161.2 IP, 128 K, 22 BB, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
I have owned Cliff Lee in one league for three consecutive years. I threw him back into the draft rather than keep him every time. This season I will be holding on to him. Lee’s numbers are not lucky. They show a pitcher breaking out. His BABIP is even a little high at .309. Lee is a top ten starter. Get used to it.

Jon Lester (262.18), SP, Boston Red Sox
153.1 IP, 103 K, 49 BB, 3.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Everyone forgets that before last year's bout with cancer, Jon Lester was more highly rated than any Red Sox prospect. Jonathan Papelbon and Clay Buchholz were both A-plus prospects, but Lester was the favorite for major league success. As the 2008 season has progressed, Lester is looking more and more like that prospect. His groundball rate has improved. His strikeout rate has improved. He is walking fewer batters. In his last 10 starts, he has a 55% groundball rate and a 7.88 strikeout rate. This combination of abilities is usually found in only the most dominant pitchers. If Lester continues to show this kind of improvement, not only will he become the ace of the Red Sox, but he'll also be one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Tim Lincecum (121.45), SP, San Francisco Giants
157.2 IP, 175 K, 58 BB, 2.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
It would be easy to classify Tim Lincecum’s present numbers as great and value him as such. Smarter owners will look at Lincecum’s age (24) and decide to look further. A BABIP of .320 is a little unlucky, even for a groundball pitcher like him. A LOB percentage of 79.3 is also bordering on the unlucky. It would be silly to make any grand claims based on these numbers, but I predict that 2007 will not be his career year.

Anthony Reyes (388.09), SP, Cleveland Indians
21 IP, 14 K, 4 BB, 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
If you think I write about Matt Kemp frequently, just wait until this winter, when my daily gushing over Anthony Reyes starts to nauseate you. I want you to concentrate on Reyes' minor league accomplishments when you consider his future, rather than his numbers with the Cardinals: 340 IP, 7.75 H9, 0.93 HR9, 2.22 BB9, 8.89 K9, and 1.11 WHIP. His first start in the American League is history, and things will only get better from here. Don’t make me say I told you so.

Joakim Soria (168.09), RP, Kansas City Royals
53.2 IP, 58 K, 11 BB, 1.51 ERA, 0.75 WHIP
His 2007 stats made him an easy choice as a mid-priced closer, unless you are in a keeper league and kept him for a song. This year Joakim Soria’s numbers are even better. In fact, his numbers are ridiculously good. For relievers, great numbers come more often, thanks to fewer innings pitched and batters faced. Soria has been lucky this season (.207 BABIP and 88.5 LOB percentage), but he is also one of the best closers in baseball, and you would be equally lucky to own him.

Jon Williams is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and lives to receive your e-mail. Help keep him alive by sending him your comments, questions, and insults at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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