What's the fun of being a "fantasy expert" if you can't accurately predict who will have a great season or not? It's worth pointing out that if I could actually predict the future, there are more lucrative ways to leverage that ability. So instead, I have to take some leaps of faith -- some are based on available news and information, while others are more accurately based on instinct and misplaced bravado.

Sometimes you do have to step out on a limb and make some calls that seem bold at the time. Last year, for instance, I loudly disagreed with the seeming consensus that Vince Young was going to be a top-10 quarterback. I then totally ignored my own advice and traded for him just before he became exactly the player I'd predicted. This latter part isn't really the point, though it's a useful lesson in and of itself. As a committed geek, I appreciate the power of a good statistic. And many of them suggested that Young could score a ton of fantasy points. My concern was that much of it was based on rushing TDs, which are highly unpredictable for a QB.

Trust me, I've made more than my share of truly bad fantasy football decisions. One of them was in 2002, when I decided that Anthony Thomas was a better bet to improve on his 2001 stats than LaDainian Tomlinson was. Yeah, that season was a real fun one for me.

But the predictions are, in fact, a lot of the fun that comes from having a pulpit here, so here goes.

Matt Leinart will be a top-10 quarterback. Sure, he got hurt last season and Kurt Warner still gets a paycheck, but Leinart should get his job back and has the luxury of throwing to two of the best receivers in all of football in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. As long as those two are healthy and Leinart remains motivated, everything is there for a season that far outpaces Leinart's draft position. Leinart is currently going as about the 20th quarterback taken, in approximately the 15th round. It's an easy bet to say that he'll outperform a few obvious names above him - Jon Kitna, Vince Young, etc. - but it says here he'll be a top-10 QB. It's not just that I think he's better than all but maybe 12 or 13 guys ahead of him - it's that two or three of those other guys are bound to have bad seasons, through injury or surprising ineffectiveness. Leinart's healthy again and Warner is looking like less of a threat for playing time.

Ben Roethlisberger won't be in the top 10. Until last season, that wouldn't have been such a Big Fat Claim, though in 2006 Roethlisberger certainly came close to being in that top tier. Then last year he exploded - not only was he a top-10 QB, in many leagues he was a top-15 player overall. But, while WR Santonio Holmes is certainly improving, Hines Ward is just one year older and slower. The addition of rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall only means he and Willie Parker can and will carry the ball an awful lot. Big Ben will have a good year - but he's being taken as the sixth QB overall, which is too high. The overall QB position is fairly thin this year after the top four, but Roethlisberger is a far better bet to recede to his mean than to repeat or increase last year's surprising performance.

Rudi Johnson will gain over 1,000 yards and add 8 to 10 TDs this season. That averages about 60-75 yards a game, and a TD in slightly more than half of those games. Look at his career stats - sure, he got hurt last year and looked old in a hurry. He has a sizeable amount of carries on his 29-year old legs. I agree with all of that -- it's why he shouldn't go in the first or second round as he has in the last few years. But currently he's going around 55th, as the 27th running back, or barely a flex player in many leagues. To me, this seems like a bigger discount than the facts on the ground tell us. Kenny Watson can run but he's not a realistic threat; nor is the ever-present but never-threatening Chris Perry. And DeDe Dorsey is already banged up, and besides that, he's DeDe Dorsey. Tackle Levi Jones says he's in the best shape of his career, and the entire Bengals franchise should be poised to get their groove back, or at least a semblance of self-respect. Johnson should return close to his previously steady supply of fantasy stats, for wholesale prices.

Ray Rice will lead all rookies in rushing yards. OK, this is a pretty seriously Big Fat Claim, but that's what we're here for. But work with me for a second; instead of looking at Rice first, let's look at the other big name backfield rooks: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte and Felix Jones.  Forte is the only one out of all these guys with no real competition for carries, and the safe money -- and smart money, for that matter -- is on Forte being the best out of the bunch this season. But Rice is no slouch; and McGahee certainly does have a respectable injury history. McGahee is now looking to possibly miss the first game of the season with an achy knee and that's just NOT good news. The Ravens line is in transition, to put it politely, and that's not good news for a guy with balky knees. Rice is already a true handcuff for McGahee, and has a history of running in the style of the Ravens offense. Even if you don't draft McGahee, he is worth a late round flier for any team.

Matthew Greber thinks you should let another owner reach on Bush this year. Photo Credit: Ben_Nelson

Reggie Bush still won't be worth the hype. That's true even if Deuce McAllister lands on IR, a distinct possibility sometime this season. Bush just hasn't proven he's an every-down back, and New Orleans isn't going to let their offense stagnate if Bush can't be out there for twelve to fifteen plays in a row. Guys like Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker are each candidates for carries, and they simply wouldn't be if Bush had proven that he was worth all the hulaballoo. He's largely going about two or three full rounds before his former USC teammate, LenDale White, and I'm not sure White isn't the better relative value.

Marvin Harrison will be one of the bigger steals in your draft. Man, it's a cold world here in Fantasyville. Harrison has been one of the most reliable fantasy studs at receiver over his 12-year career until his knee injury last year limited him to just five games. Now, he's getting drafted as a third wide receiver in 10-team leagues. As the 21st drafted receiver according to Mock Draft Central, Harrison is going after guys like Hines Ward, who certainly seems a better bet to be slow and plodding this year than Harrison. On average, he's going in the sixth round or so -- roughly three rounds later than he has in years.

Greg Jennings will not be a steal. As opposed to Harrison, Jennings is going too early in my opinion. He's the 15th ranked receiver, going late in the fourth round or the beginning of the fifth in most leagues. This not only assumes a solid season from the almost completely unproven Aaron Rodgers, something I'm not willing to do, but it also is based on his touchdown total from 2007. Look, I love Jennings -- he was a sleeper pick for me in 2006 that panned out well. But think about Jennings, and then think about his teammate Donald Driver. Driver is going about 30 picks after Jennings - and he had considerably better stats last season, with the exception of Jennings' TDs. Those TDs are pretty flukey -- and 12 is an awful lot to count on again. His speed certainly means he's going to break a few long ones, but if Jennings gets tackled just a few more times than he did last season -- or can't break away as quickly due to less precise passes from Rodgers -- then his value is substantially tarnished. I'll definitely take a gamble on Roy Williams, Brandon Marshall or Santonio Holmes, three guys going five to nine picks after Jennings.

Owen Daniels will be a top-10 tight end.  Look, it's a rough position to guess on here, but this is one claim I'm just fine in making. QB Matt Schaub is extremely solid, but has the unfortunate role of playing behind a wretched offensive line. Instances of finding a quick outlet with Daniels should only increase, and having a solid target to take some heat off of Andre Johnson is something the Texans offense has to be geared up for. Daniels and Schaub had good chemistry last season and he could easily improve on his 63 catches from 2007. He's being drafted as a backup TE, but he'll be starting extremely soon for someone in your league.

Some idiot in your league will draft a kicker before the final round. Don't be that idiot.

The 49ers defense will be in the top 10 before seasons end. OK, even I'm not totally sure on that. But that's a Big Fat claim alright. In so-called "real football," this is a unit that still has some work to do. But look at what provides points in fantasy -- turnovers are huge and the secondary is chock full of guys who make picks. Walt Harris, Nate Clements and current preseason standout safety Dashson Goldson are all guys who swarm to the ball and create turnovers. Defenses also provide stats via tackles and Patrick Willis is your guy there, joined by Justin Smith. And sacks should increase as a result of DE Manny Lawson (listed as a LB but he primarily plays on the line) and the drafting of Kentwan Balmer. The 49ers are basically undrafted in every traditional league this year, but there's no reason they can't perform as a top-10 squad.

Here's another, more general claim: After your draft, you'll possibly see one team that looks like the no-brainer worst team in the league. The owner made stupid reaches, or took players you just know suck eggs. Well, here's the Big Fat Claim: That team will NOT have the worst record at seasons end. Of all the claims in this article, that's probably the one I feel safest about -- and of course, the converse is true...the team you think is the best probably won't win the title.

And, of course, that's the real fun in fantasy sports, and sports in general. So go ahead, make your own Big Fat Claim or three! And let's get ready for some football.

Matthew Greber would like you to know that the fact that he's carrying around a little extra weight these days is NOT the reason this column is called Big Fat Claims. He's also pretty sure he married the right woman, since she suggested to him that it might be smart to order the NFL Season Pass on DirecTV. Yes, you read that correctly. Tell him how lucky he is at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed