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Written by RotoExperts.com Staff Writers and Compiled by Senior Writer Scott Engel   
Wednesday, 13 August 2008

The RotoExperts discuss Brett Favre’s fantasy value as a Jet.

 

Each week, Scott Engel gathers the RotoExperts team to answer a pressing Fantasy Football question.

This week's question: Where do you rank Brett Favre now that he has returned to the NFL with the Jets?

Brad Rysz: After being traded to the New York Jets, Brett Favre now becomes a top 10 quarterback in most fantasy football formats. Similar to Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery are impact wide receivers that will only help Favre. The Jets’ offensive line improved significantly with the additions of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody. Running back Thomas Jones will help take some pressure off of Favre. I put Favre at number nine in my quarterback rankings, firmly between Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb.

Mike Gilbert: I put him lower than I would have ranked him if he'd stayed with the Packers. The Packers have a more talented squad, particularly on offense. Green Bay is very solid along their offensive line, whereas the Jets are in revamp mode. That's not to say that the Jets' line is bad. It's OK, but it's certainly not as good or as in sync as the Packers. Similarly, the Packers WRs are better than the Jets', though not by orders of magnitude. Don't look for help from the running game, either. I'm not a big believer in Thomas Jones. Dude averaged 3.6 yards per carry last year, and he turns 30 (the dreaded age for RBs) during camp. Also, never discount motivation as a factor in a player's performance. Favre doesn't appear overly enthused to be with the Jets. At that introductory press conference, he looked like he'd just had his heart broken and was putting on a brave face. Throw in the fact that Favre will be learning a new offense, and it's inevitable that he'll fall off a bit. I'd rank him in the fourth tier of QBs, probably in David Garrard territory.

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Tommy Landry: Ahhhh, Ye Olde Brett Faver-re-er-re. Now that he has completed his scorched earth mission to get the hell outta Green Bay, we find him in the Big Apple. I'm cautiously optimistic about Favre in his new situation, but I'm certainly not planning to leap him into my top two tiers of QBs. As much as I want to think he still has a lot of magic in his right arm, there are several concerns that should subdue your optimism. First, the man is 38 years old. I am too, and I can tell you, things just seem to break a lot more easily these days. Second, he has to not only learn the system, but he has to build a rapport with a completely new roster in less than a month. The early going won't be all that pretty. Third, he has a revamped offensive line, and they could take weeks, if not months, to come together as a unit. Fourth, Thomas Jones doesn't seem to scare anyone any more. Add in that he has to play against solid defensive teams like New England (twice), San Diego, Denver, Seattle, and Buffalo (twice), and you can see that Brett will be really happy to see that his bye week is in early October. And we know how the New York media is - they love you on face value (A-Rod, anyone?), until you falter (A-Rod, anyone?). If the team underperforms on offense early, the verbal bashing will begin, and that's nothing but bad for Brett's production. I'd consider him as my QB1 if at least seven or eight guys were already gone, but no earlier. Don't forget that he averaged 23.5 interceptions per year in the 2005 and 2006 seasons behind a questionable offensive line, so there's downside to be concerned about, last year's production aside.

Jason Revelia: Favre was a Top 10 fantasy QB in 2007. Has he lost it? I wouldn't bet on it. If he was going back to the Packers after wavering all off-season about playing and whether or not his heart was into it, I could see him having a down year. Since Ted Thompson, Mike McCarthy and Brett Favre let his "return" explode into some kind of childish "Richard" measuring contest, Favre probably feels 30 again. I think that if Green Bay misses the playoffs and the Jets somehow get into them, there won't be a rock in Wisconsin that Thompson and McCarthy can hide under. This gives us fantasy owners something I won't bet against: Brett Favre playing pissed off, motivated and with energy. I could see him being a Top 10 fantasy QB again. I would draft him after the Top 10 guys have gone off the board without a second guess. I also love what that does to an already deep QB position. If Favre went back to the Packers it would have hurt both Aaron Rodgers and Favre's fantasy value. Instead, with him going to the J-E-T-S, we get a whole team of fantasy players -- Coles, Cotchery, Jones, you name them -- on the Jets and their value increases in my book.

Christopher Bangs: I'm ranking Brett Favre at the top of the third tier of quarterbacks, seventh overall. I can see no way to place him above any of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Carson Palmer or Derek Anderson. But I do have him above his compatriots in the third tier: Donovan McNabb, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck. The retooled Jets offensive line should be able to provide plenty of protection for Favre, along with new fullback Tony Richardson, who will help in max-protect packages. Favre will also have plenty of options to throw to with receivers Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, along with tight ends Dustin Keller and Chris Baker. And in the event that a play breaks down, both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have good hands and can act as safety valves out of the backfield.

Kyle Stack: I believe in Favre. Taking a look at Scott Engel’s quarterback tiers, I believe Favre can reach Tier Four, considering his strong wideout combination of Cotchery and Coles, and the mojo Favre recouped in 2007, his best year statistically in a decade. Although his indecisiveness off the field this summer was maddening (Is he thinking about coming back? Will he accept the $20-$25 million buyout? Is he reporting to camp? Does he want to play for the Pack -- or the Bucs?), there has never been a question about his willingness to quickly decide his on-field target. You have to prepare yourself for more interceptions than you’d like from an elite quarterback, but don’t underestimate Favre’s desire to prove that he can play at an elite level after his controversial summer.

Chris Ryan: I'm having a hard time placing Favre. On one hand, the Jets are loaded with weapons. With a bevy of legitimate receiving options (six by my count, with either Brad Smith or David Clowney possibly being a seventh), and a very good offensive line, I find it hard to think that Favre won't come close to duplicating his numbers from last year. On the other hand, I also can't help but remember the two years prior to '07 when he threw 38 touchdowns against 47 interceptions, and generally looked washed up. Faced with the task of learning a new system and playing in a new conference, there will be an adjustment period, but Favre is too experienced and too motivated to completely go in the tank. I think a season similar to that of Kurt Warner's '07 is a reasonable bet (3,400 yards/27 tds/17 INTs), which puts him as the number eight QB on my board.

Matt Wirkiowski: Now that Brett Favre has been traded to the Jets, I would rank him as the ninth best fantasy quarterback for 2008.  I would put him a notch ahead of guys like Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck.  His numbers may be less than spectacular in the first few weeks as he learns the nuances of the offense, but he should hit his stride by October.  He doesn’t have any superstar-caliber talent surrounding him, either.  The two starting wide receivers, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, are good, but not great.  Of great concern to Favre will be the re-worked offensive line.  With a number of new starters on the offensive line, it remains to be seen whether they will be able to provide the protection that Favre enjoyed for many years in Green Bay.

Paul Bourdett: Thank God that whole fiasco is over with. I'm a little disappointed because Brett Favre just put the kibosh on one of my Big Fat Claims, but I'll be okay. As for where I think Favre ranks among fantasy QBs in 2008, I'd have to rank him just outside the top 10. I know I'm probably slotting him lower than most, and yes, 2007 was a magical season for Favre, but the likelihood of that happening again is sitting at about...well, zero percent. Favre is NOT going to complete over 67 percent of his passes, he is NOT going to throw for over 4,100 yards, and he is NOT going to give you 28 TDs with only 15 INTs again.  Favre's also been working out with a high school team for the last month and has had little time to adjust to a new playbook, coaches, and teammates. We're looking at least a couple of weeks into the regular season before he finds any type of chemistry/timing with his lineman and receivers (a gun slinging/freelancing QB like Favre needs each of the other 10 guys on the field to know his tendencies in order to be successful).  Lastly, the Jets receivers, as a unit, don't have the big play ability of Donald Driver, James Jones, and Greg Jennings (Favre ranked first in the NFL last season in completions over 40 yards, sixth in completions over 20 yards). Granted, Coles, Cotchery, and Keller are all above average at their positions, but Coles is aging, Cotchery is more of a physical receiver than a deep threat, and Keller is a rookie.  It's not all doom and gloom, however.  Favre does have a variety of weapons, he'll be playing behind a quality offensive line and his schedule looks pretty darn good. He'll be facing Miami (twice), Arizona, Cincinnati, Denver, San Francisco, and St. Louis -- all teams ranked in the bottom third in defensive passer rating last season (and teams who've done little this off season to improve their standing in that area).  Just to be clear, I don't think Favre will be as bad as he was in 2005 or 2006.  I'm just thinking he performs more like Jay Cutler or Marc Bulger.

SUMMARY: I am not at all skeptical about Favre, and have been spending considerable time poking holes in the theories of naysayers recently. Yes, he is learning a challenging new offense when you consider the terminology, but Favre is already studying hard and putting in the work with the season still less than a month away. His 60-yard TD pass to Cotchery over the weekend in camp shows that a lot of his natural abilities will still prevail, even early. Trying to gauge his demeanor at the press conference is no way to indicate how he will approach the season. I agree with Jason he will play "ticked off" this season and that will be a great motivating factor. As for the offensive line, Faneca will anchor a group that already has promising young guys and the unit will be solid. It should also help open holes for Jones, who is the type of runner who cannot create his own openings, but can at least be adequate with the new additions paving the way for him. The running game will be respectable enough to help Favre. Like Favre, Tommy Landry never misses a game day, so the fact that he is 38 means nothing to me in what is basically a one-year deal. Favre has been in the spotlight his entire career, so the New York media thing is overblown. The 2005 and 2006 seasons are not relevant to 2008 in my eyes. Favre had a shaky supporting cast both years and felt he had to carry the team and forced things too often. That wasn't necessary last year in Green Bay, and he has a solid crew to work with in New York (really New Jersey, c'mon). I don't believe Clowney will be part of his arsenal, as he is just trying to make the team, but Coles can still get downfield and Cotchery is a versatile pass-catcher. Jennings will miss Favre, not vice versa. By the way, thanks to Tommy and Paul for unintentionally proving that schedule analysis is mostly guesswork. That's the least of my concerns with Favre, who I rank seventh now, one notch behind Anderson, and just ahead of Hasselbeck and Roethlisberger. Maybe a few less TD passes than last year and a few more picks, but still very good overall.

What are your thoughts on Brett Favre this season? E-mail your comments to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and you may be included in next week's edition!

 

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Mark Strausberg said:

I was unable to get my take in on a timely basis, but I'll go on record and be the most pessimistic of all. Maybe its because he screwed my BFC about Clemens being valuable this year, but I put Favre in around the 12th or 13th best QB this year. Of course you won't be able to draft him that late, but given a standard 12 team league, that makes him one of the most valuable backup fantasy QBs, which is just about right. And I should add that its not because I think Favre will be bad. Its just I see guys like Garrard and Campbell having great years this year. Of course if your league doesn't count INTs, he might jump into the top 10. But he's not even a top three tier QB....
 
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