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FANTASY BASEBALL: Small Market Mania PDF Print E-mail
Written by Jonathan Phillips, RotoExperts.com Senior Writer   
Wednesday, 13 August 2008

Jonathan Phillips delves into the fantasy relevance of the small market teams, even if they're irrelevant in the actual pennant races

 

It's Sunday.  The wafting, flavored scent of pigskin in the air is pervading America like a bad Skip Bayless prediction, but there are still seven weeks of baseball left.  While the Athletics have fallen from grace quicker than a heavenly servant at a liquor store blowout sale, the Twins, Diamondbacks, and Marlins are hanging tough.  And then there are the new Tampa Bay Rays, who've already bested their franchise record in victories this past week with number 71. 

Rosters will expand soon to 40, and you'll have opportunities galore to analyze new players to determine who can help you now, and who is coveted for keeper status.  As the season heads toward the home stretch, injuries become more serious and could mean the end of the season for some players.  Just ask those same Rays and Diamondbacks, who received news no contender wants. 

 

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Week: 1-6           L10: 1-9          Overall: 56-43, 3rd AL West

Gio Gonzalez
Gio got his shot in Oakland and looks to be a solid SP down the stretch. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

How bad does the month of August feel to the Oakland Athletics?... Root canal bad maybe?  With their pitching woes now the talk of baseball (somebody had to supplant the Pirates) and Bob Geren's dinner table, the A's skipper called up Gio Gonzalez, who posted more strikeouts than innings over 100 frames of work in Triple-A Sacramento.  With the kind of composure he's showing at just 23, I'm sure the White Sox wish he was still in their farm system.  After giving up an early homer to Rod Barajas, he calmed down for six full innings of four-hit baseball.  His four walks versus two strikeouts are typical for a rookie initially.  The A's need pitchers, so if he has good stuff Tuesday, he'll get a spot in the rotation. 

Meanwhile, Brad Ziegler continues to mow them down, extending his scoreless inning streak to a record 37, while adding his first save.  Ziegler won't blow anyone away with his stuff, (he actually hides the baseball under his leg kick before submarining it to the plate), but Huston Street's fourth blown save in his last sixteen chances makes him the AL's worst closer in terms of percentage.  Ziegler isn't the closer of the future, but for now, it appears Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine will have to wait until next year to vie for the full time position.

And just about now I'm sure you were thinking, "Hmmm, I wonder when I'll get my clutch fantasy stud Eric Chavez back?"  Well, you can just shut that thought down right now, mister (or missus), because Eric made himself at home again in the hospital.  He's having season-ending shoulder surgery.  Jack Hannahan will continue to play at third base.  Don't be shocked to see Wes Bankston recalled, even though he struggled to a .203 average in 17 games earlier this year.  

UPCOMING SERIES: TB (8/12-8/14), CHW (8/15-8/17)

 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Week: 3-4           L10: 4-6           Overall: 60-58, 1st NL Central

Arizona continues to fight to stay above .500.  The loss of second baseman Orlando Hudson is only going to make that harder.  Saturday, Hudson broke his wrist, and regardless of whether he needs surgery, he may miss the rest of the season.  With Emilio Bonifacio now playing for the Nationals, Augie Ojeda becomes the starter.  He's a career .237 hitter, but when Hudson went down last year, Ojeda hit .333 with a .424 OBP.  He's still a better option than Chris Burke, who is struggling with a .193 average.  Ojeda should get the majority of at-bats.

For better or worse, Chad Tracy has taken over the starting first baseman's job, while Conor Jackson continues to work in the outfield.  Oddly enough, Tony Clark was brought in as another possible left-handed bat in a mostly right-handed lineup, but Tracy's been no help there.  He hits lefties better than right-handers by 60 average points.

Randy Johnson has been on a roll lately, but as a two-start pitcher this week, he might be a little nervous.  Upcoming opponents Colorado and Houston gave him fits last time they faced him.  He lasted only five innings against the Rockies, giving up nine hits and four earned runs. Against Houston, he gave up nine hits and six earned runs in four innings.  Of course, you might also consider those starts were back in May and April, respectively, when he was struggling.

Jamie D'Antona has been called up, but he's been relegated to pinch hitting duties so far, hitting just 2-for-11. 

UPCOMING SERIES: @COL (8/12-8/14), @HOU (8/15-8/17)

 

FLORIDA MARLINS
Week: 3-3          L10: 5-5            Overall: 62-56, 3rd NL East

Anibal Sanchez continues his steps toward becoming a regular starter, even with his control issues.  His 5 2/3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 SO, 3 BB line in his second appearance elevated his ERA to 4.22.  However, he's just 24, so don't lose faith.  He still is a possible keeper, and by next season he should be back to form with better control.

Meanwhile, the Marlins are 5-0 in games that Josh Johnson has started since his return.  He won again Sunday, shutting down the Mets for seven innings.  His changeup has returned to form, and although he struck out only three, it was his third straight victory.  His WHIP won't always be pretty, but he's getting the job done.

The Marlins, who have veteran Matt Treanor now healthy, as well as John Baker catching, signed former National Paul Lo Duca to their minor league team in Albuquerque.  With a career contact rate of 0.93 and BABIP of .290, clearly Lo Duca's .246 BABIP this year is extremely low.  Even with his shady steroids past, the Marlins franchise knows Lo Duca from his brief stint there a few years back.  He could easily be back in the majors at the expense of either Treanor or Baker.

UPCOMING SERIES: STL (8/11-8/14), CHC (8/15-8/17)


WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Week: 3-3          L10: 6-4           Overall: 44-74, 5th NL East

What is up with the Nationals love of catchers?  In the off-season, they signed Johnny Estrada and Paul Lo Duca, neither of whom are on the roster anymore.  Two prospects, Jesus Flores and Will Nieves, now make up their catching unit.  This week, the Nationals signed their fifth round pick, switch-hitting catcher Adrian Nieto.  Nieto has already had arm problems, and with his powerful bat, there's a darn good chance he'll get moved to a position like first base.

Roger Bernadina has been tearing it up in triple-A.  In 27 games at Columbus, he's hitting .343 with three home runs, five doubles, and 11 stolen bases.  He could see another callup soon, although earlier this year, Bernadina struggled with a .125 average in 40 at-bats.  He was unable to utilize the speed he's known for, getting caught twice in two attempts.

After firing out of the gate with a 12-for-32 start since he became a National, Emilio Bonifacio is 0-for-9 in his last two games.  Expect this kind of streakiness as he adjusts to becoming a full-timer, and if you've invested in him, stick with him.

UPCOMING SERIES: @MIL (8/11), NYM (8/12-8/14), COL (8/15-8/17)

 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Week: 3-3           L10: 5-5          Overall: 56-60, 5th AL East

Right as Adam Jones had turned a corner, he fouled a ball of his foot, fracturing it.  He's on the 15-day DL but is likely to miss more time.  It's a devastating injury for the Orioles offense, because Jones was batting .310 with five long-balls and 33 RBI since June 1. To replace him, Luis Montanez was called up from Double-A Bowie.  His 26 home runs in 116 games caught the eye of Trembley and company.  In his only start thus far, the former third overall pick of the Cubs in the 2000 draft went 2-for-4 with a home run against the Angels.  One thing Montanez has going for him is that Jay Payton was never slated to be a starter at 35 years of age. Montanez also has a very good batting eye--0.62 (22 BB/35 K) in 69 games at Triple-A Norfolk.  Payton has a mundane seven hits in his last 28 at-bats, so I expect Montanez to get plenty of opportunities.  So far, he's been used to give banged-up and slumping Luke Scott a break.

The man who couldn't buy a win in the first half due to poor run support now can't lose.  Jeremy Guthrie won his third decision in as many starts and has a 1.21 ERA during that stint. 

The Orioles decided to make a waiver trade, dealing tough middle reliever Chad Bradford for a player to be decided.  Bradford is the best groundball pitcher in baseball, which can't help the Orioles' already overworked bullpen, so perhaps they are optimistic about the return of Chris Ray by year's end.  Ray, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, began throwing down in the rookie leagues, and in one inning, he gave up two hits and struck out two.

UPCOMING SERIES: @CLE (8/11-8/14), @DET (8/14-8/17)

 

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Week: 2-4         L10: 3-7         Overall: 53-64, 5th in NL Central

The Pirates pitching staff may have found some help in young Jeff Karstens.  The former Yankee prospect pitched 7 2/3 perfect innings against Arizona in a 2-0 victory, his second in as many starts.  He hasn't allowed a run in 15 innings while striking out six and walking five.  Jason Davis also added a quality start to the rotation Sunday, keeping the Pirates close in a six-inning, four-hit, zero-earned run performance of his own.  Unfortunately, he walked four, while striking out three.  Both these guys have decent control, but they're not worth any movement until they develop more.  The Pirates offense is also unlikely to supply any run support.

Because Tyler Yates has yielded eight earned runs in his last 1 1/3 IP, he's opened the door to newly acquired Craig Hansen for closer duties.  Hansen notched his first save early in the week, but his big problem is control.  Against the Phillies, he added two more walks, giving him three passes in only 3 1/3 innings.  That's a little too Kevin Gregg-esque for any manager.  If you're desperate for cheap saves, you might toss him in occasionally, but the committee is definitely looking for nominees and is open to suggestions.

Lastly, Phil Dumatrait's first season as a Pirates starter is over. He underwent season-ending shoulder surgery.

UPCOMING SERIES: @NYM (8/11), CIN (8/12-8/14), NYM (8/15-8/18)

 

TEXAS RANGERS
Week: 3-4          L10: 5-5           Overall: 61-58, 2nd AL West

Milton Bradley is expected to be activated from the DL on Tuesday, which should please all fantasy owners, not just because his healthy bat was missed, but because the Rangers begin a nine game stint against AL Central foes next week.  Bradley has pummeled Cleveland and Detroit to the tune of .333 and more than .500, respectively.  However, when they arrive in Kaufmann, you might want to sit Bradley, because the Royals have his number.  He's hitting just .214 against the Royals, and a pathetic .143 at Kaufmann Stadium this year.

The closer role in Texas now falls to veteran Eddie Guardado, after doctors discovered C. J. Wilson has a bone spur in his elbow.  For the season, Guardado's been strong, giving up just 32 hits in 45 2/3 innings.  If Joaquin Benoit is available, you should stash him, because this isn't a done deal at all.  Guardado's numbers are decent, but he's 37, and not nearly as powerful as he once was.  Nevertheless, he's the guy at present, and Wilson's return this season is unlikely.

UPCOMING SERIES: @BOS (8/12-8/14), TB (8/15-8/17)

 

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Week: 2-5            L10: 8-2           Overall: 71-46, 1ST AL East

When someone pops on the TV with breaking news, it's almost never a good thing.  Well, in the case of Carl Crawford, the news is that he is headed to the DL with a hand injury.  He's out for at least 2-3 weeks.  Enter the oft-injured, miraculously recovered Rocco Baldelli.  He's an add to your lineup, because disease or no disease, Baldelli is a talented ball player in a strong lineup.  At one time, he had 20-plus home run potential.  Sunday, he went 1-for-4 with an RBI, but the most encouraging thing was Baldelli's diving catch in the third inning.

It's hard to sit one of your pitching studs, but in this case, it might be necessary.  Scott Kazmir's consistency has suddenly disappeared. He hasn't made it past the fifth inning in seven of his last nine starts.  This stint has raised his ERA to 3.20, up a full point.  Keep in mind that Kazmir is only 24 and has just one full major-league season under his belt.  He had a stint on the DL earlier this year with elbow problems, and it's possible that he's simply tiring.  The other worry is that he's hiding a bigger problem.  Depending on what you invested in him, monitor the situation carefully and act accordingly.

Carlos Pena should consider changing his birth stone to the Peridot, because he sure loves August.  He has three home runs for the month already, and six in his last 15 games.

Evan Longoria's wrist injury turned out to be worse than previously thought, when an X-Ray revealed a fracture.  Longoria now joins Carl Crawford on the DL.  Wily Aybar is expected to move from the outfield to play 3B in his absence. Longoria leads the team in HR and RBI and is the best defensive 3B in the league.  Rumors are now bandying about because of the power void, claiming that Barry Bonds may be considered as the stopgap measure.  Like him or hate him, a fresh Bonds would add tremendously to the Rays and their playoff chances.  Do I really need to say more about the guy who is reigning Home Run King?

The Rays also pulled off a waiver deal, sending an unknown player to Baltimore in return for Chad Bradford.  Bradford adds a veteran arm for long-relief duties, which have become necessary due to a rash of short outings by Rays starters recently.  If you're investing in the middle-relief innings strategy, Bradford is perfect--he leads the majors with a 4.98 GB/FB ratio.   He's also likely to help you out in the ERA and WHIP categories. 

UPCOMING SERIES: @OAK (8/12-8/14), @TEX (8/15-8/17)

 

COLORADO ROCKIES
Week: 2-5       L10: 4-6       Overall: 53-67, 3rd NL West

So-called Rockies ace Jeff Francis would look dreadful if the organization hadn't added a pitcher with even worse numbers than his.  Desperate times mean desperate measures, and Colorado has reached that point with the signing of Livan Hernandez.  His 199 hits (18 home runs) in 139 2/3 innings is the stuff WHIP killers are made of.  His first outing Saturday set Hernandez up as the lighter fluid to the Padres fire: 2 2/3 IP, 7 H, 9 ER, 4 BB, and 1K.  It's hard to see how any good comes of this, unless you own relievers in the Colorado bullpen.  They're going to be seeing a lot more work every fifth day.  Jorge De La Rosa owners are the losers on this one, because Hernandez's acquisition forces him back to bullpen duty.

Francis owners won't rejoice at his first outing back. He continues to be hounded by the long-ball.  He gave up his 18th and 19th homers in this week's appearance against the light-hitting Nationals.  If you drafted him, it's time to admit your mistake. This year is nearly unsalvageable. 

The good news is that Clint Hurdle's strategy to drop Garret Atkins lower in the order to get him out of his slump appears to have worked.  He was 4-for-24 the first seven days of August.  Since then, he's 6-for-12 with a home run, his first round-tripper since July 27. 

UPCOMING SERIES: ARI (8/12-8/14), @WAS (8/15-8/17)

 

KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Week: 2-4           L10:           Overall: 54-64. 4th AL Central

The Royals lineup looks different from the third position.  Just ask David DeJesus, who will now bat behind Mike Aviles and Mark Teahen.  There's no doubt that if DeJesus can continue hitting at his earlier clip, his RBI totals should increase. 

Since moving to the top of the order, the already hot-hitting Mike Aviles has busted out even more. He's 18-for-38 since being shifted there on July 30.  At the time, his average was .330.  Now it's .335, and he's added his seventh home run.


Zach Greinke began serving a five-game suspension.  Essentially, he misses one start, and perhaps he could use it.  He's only had one quality start in his past five.  He'll be due to pitch against the Rangers on August 23.  Although he pitches better at home, since the All-Star break, Greinke has a 6.35 ERA in just over 22 innings pitched, having given up 31 hits.  His BABIP, however, is .432 during that run.  So Greinke is the victim of bad luck this half and should improve.

The Royals haven't stopped trying to stack their farm system.  They traded veteran reliever Horacio Ramirez to the White Sox for 22-year-old speed demon Paulo Orlando.  In two years at Single-A Winston-Salem, he's stolen 48 bases in a total of 214 games.  Of course, with a BB/K ratio of 41:181 or 0.27, he is an investment at best right now.

Lastly, Mark Grudzielanek was placed on the 15-day DL.  Jason Smith replaces him out of Triple-A Omaha.  Smith has good pop in his bat, as nearly half his hits were for extra bases (47/107), and 20 of those were home runs.  He's played mostly third base but is expected to back up Esteban German at second.  Considering German's Mendoza-like .219 average, expect Smith to see some at-bats.  However, Smith struck out at a rate of nearly one-in-three AB (128/423).

UPCOMING SERIES:@CHW (8/12-814), @NYY (8/15-8/17)

 

MINNESOTA TWINS
Week: 3-3          L10:           Overall: 65-52, 2nd AL Central

Just as the Twins were figuring out how to replace ailing Alexi Casilla, Michael Cuddyer broke his foot during his Triple-A stint rehabbing a hand injury.  He'll miss the rest of the season.  Meanwhile, Casilla's news was that his torn ligament isn't in bad shape.  Barring setbacks, he'll miss at least a couple of weeks, but Ron Gardenhire insists Casilla won't need a rehab stint before being reactivated.  In the meantime, that means Nick Punto will fill in at second.  Punto's been a serviceable utility man, with a career .247 average.

Those stubborn Pat Neshek owners who refused to drop him, even after he was placed on the 60-day DL in May (you know who you are, Neshek lovers), will be enthused to hear the reliever began a light rehab stint in the minors on August 5.  Neshek could make an appearance in September, but that may be too late to matter.

Adam Everett continues to struggle at the plate, and also in the field.  His error Sunday cost the Twins the lead late, and the Royals won the game in 12 innings.  With Casilla's injury, you might soon see Luke Hughes, who began the season in Double-A New Britain.  He led that team with a .319 average, knocking a third of his hits for extra bases.  His promotion to triple-A has him batting .302 in 11 games, with two homers, three doubles, and eight RBI in 11 games.  If he can cut down on his strikeout tendencies, you could see this free agent signing become a major leaguer soon.
 
UPCOMING SERIES: NYY (8/11-8/13), SEA (8/15-8/17)

 

***STATISTICS FROM THE WEEK OF 8/04 - 8/10

 

Jonathan Phillips spends his Sundays writing this column for you.  So you should spend a little time writing for him.  Send him feedback, comments, or a column of your own at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 13 August 2008 )
 
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