My coworkers at my day job bombard me daily with fantasy questions: “What do you think of this trade?”; “Should I trade this hitter?”; “Did you see what she’s wearing today?” (Oh wait, that’s a different type of fantasy). Where was I? Oh yeah, so normally I provide an answer and move along. But I was asked a good question recently that I thought was worth exploring. “Will Oakland shut down Duchscherer?”

It’s a decent question for a redraft league, but it is an even better question for a keeper league. In a redraft league, if you think he’ll get shut down, you sell high or drop him when the time comes and replace him with another able body if possible. If you don’t think he’ll get shut down, either buy low or hold onto him. However, in a keeper league, you can’t worry just about this year. A player with much more wear this year could be far less valuable next year. It’s a whole different dynamic.
For example, consider Tom Gorzelanny. In 2007, he had his best year, but his major league pitch count jumped from 1,014 to 3,312. Of course we can see the effects of that jump in his current 6.57 ERA. And we haven’t even touched on injury yet.

You’ll notice I mentioned pitch count, not innings pitched. Innings pitched can be a misleading stat when considering abuse. Let us take a dramatic example. Pitcher A is very efficient with his pitches, gets ahead of hitters, and pitches a perfect game followed by a no-hitter. Meanwhile, pitcher B finds himself in plenty of 3-0 counts and consequently gets absolutely shelled, giving up 20 runs in six innings of work in two games. Who’s the more valuable pitcher? Sure, both pitchers might regress to the mean, but whom would you rather have for next year? If you consider innings pitched, Pitcher A looks like a riskier pitcher. But if you look at their pitch totals, Pitcher A and Pitcher B look very similar, and Pitcher A is probably a better pitcher.

And I’m not going to get into a debate about the appropriate amount of pitches. There have been countless debates about what the threshold. Is it 100? 120? 145? I would argue that for each pitcher, the threshold is different. During Randy Johnson’s dominant years, he regularly pitched deep into games and averaged well over 100 pitches. But he did that year after year. The key is not the specific pitch count threshold, but how many pitches a pitcher threw over HIS threshold.

So, I looked at the 50 pitchers with the highest pitch counts so far this year. I then multiplied every pitcher’s count by the same factor to get an estimated pitch count for the year. I then individually looked up each pitcher’s career high for total pitches (Oh, the things I do for you, dear reader) and calculated the difference.

Here is the chart:

First and foremost, notice who is not here? Uh-huh, Duchscherer. He’s 92nd in total pitches thrown. And of the top 100 in pitches thrown, Duchscherer has the 5th best pitches per inning pitched ratio. With Oakland out of the pennant race, they might err on the side of conservatism and shut down Duchscherer, especially since he made the jump from reliever to starter. Is he the perfect candidate, however? Not at all.

Which brings me to the next point: these numbers have to be taken in context. Jurrjens, for example, has the highest projected difference. Does that make him the riskiest pitcher on here? Absolutely not. His low pitch totals are partly responsible to time spent in the minors, which are not included here. I thought about adding in those totals, but it is much easier to keep your pitch count low against prospects than actual major leaguers, who have a far better batting eye. Conversely, Bronson Arroyo has the lowest difference. Does that make him the least risky? Absolutely not. You have to consider the context. But let us examine a few select cases:

No problem:
Carlos Zambrano: One of the biggest knocks on Zambrano coming into this year was the amount of wear on his arm. However, it looks as if Lou Piniella has kept his totals down, and Big Z could be in for a big rebound next year.

Dan Haren: Much has been made of Haren tiring down the stretch because of some recent weak performances. However, he’s still way off pace of his career high in pitches thrown and should be a stud against next year.

Johan Santana: Like you really needed another reason to try to get him on your team next year….

Cliff Lee won his 16th game on Sunday as his outstanding season continued. Photo Credit: aturkus

Cliff Lee: He’s obviously pitching smarter this year, using his pitches more efficiently. He’s pitched out of his mind, and a regression is likely, but it won’t be because of wear.

James Shields: He got shut down last year and is still under pace for his career high. If you own Shields in your keeper league, you HAVE to keep him.

Danger Will Robinson:
Jeremy Guthrie: People love Guthrie’s upside, and smart owners know that with a little run support, he might be one of the better pitchers next year. But if I’m a non-contending Guthrie owner in a keeper league, I’m really hoping the Orioles shut him down for the season--and soon.

Tim Lincecum: With a player of his ability, there are two ways to look at this. One is to sell high if you’re a Lincecum owner. The other is to take a risk and show this chart to the Lincecum owner in your league to try to get him cheaper.

Justin Verlander: The bad news continues. With all the young arms the Tigers have, don’t be surprised to see Verlander shut down if the Tigers are out of it.

Cole Hamels: His pitch counts jumped from the previous year as well--but so far, so good. With the Phillies in the hunt, Hamels won’t get shut down either. But there is danger lurking here…

John Danks: For the record, I really like Danks and tried to get him in my keeper league. But don’t be surprised to see his performance dip a little next year.

Ricky Nolasco: Florida should be prosecuted for the damage they do to their young pitchers. I present Exhibits A and B, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson. Nolasco might soon be Exhibit C.

Zack Greinke: Yikes! Having been the driver of the Greinke bandwagon for years, this one might scare me the most of any name on here. However, I would not be surprised to see the Royals shut him down. Of course, not having him down the stretch is going to hurt me too.

Mark Strausberg has no problem telling you the truth. Whether you want to hear it or just want to tell Mark to “keep” his thoughts to himself, email him at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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