Tom:  Well, it's been quite an adventure, but I have successfully relocated from one coast to the other.  I am already amazed at how much more relaxed California is than my beloved New York City.  It's fascinating.  People in California are really big fans of space.  You don't get much of that in New York City.  You also don't get much sun.  I've been doing my best to adjust to that.  I am also doing my best to adjust to the fact that my Mets start playing at 4:00 PM local time out here.  Yikes!  I am so used to getting home, kicking back, and watching a ball game at 7:00 PM.  But man, now I have to adjust my mental schedule.  I also have to hustle home from work so that I can catch the final few innings of East Coast baseball.  I know what you’re going to say--get DVR!  Sure, it would be simple if you can go from work to home without somehow, some way, getting the scores thrown in your face at every turn.  The digital age--your best friend and your worst enemy.  No one tell me the Mets score.  Thanks.        

Paul: You’re not going to get all “Hollywood” on us now, are you, Tom?  I know exactly what you’re talking about when you say relaxed.  Although fortunately, my time in California was spent doing just that--relaxing on vacation!  You, unfortunately, are forced to live there (that’s a shot at the West Coast, not you, Tom).  Baseball scores should be the least of your worries.  Just wait until the football season, when East Coast games are starting at 10 AM, West Coast games are at 1 PM, and the Sunday night ESPN game is at 5:30 PM!  Wait, that’s actually a good thing.  Okay, maybe the West Coast ain’t so bad. Just get yourself an iPod and some really, really dark sunglasses.  That way, you won’t be able to hear or see a score until you’re ready. 

LASTINGS MILLEDGE, OF, WAS

It would be an understatement to say Lastings Milledge hasn't lived up to the expectations many had for him just a few years ago.  The fact that the Mets traded Milledge, their first round draft pick in 2003, for the likes of Brian Schneider and Ryan Church this past off season, only reinforces that opinion.  The proof is in the numbers: In his first 716 major league at-bats, Milledge has hit just .257/.322/.459, with only 19 stolen bases--showing neither the power, speed, nor plate discipline that had major league scouts salivating when he was in the minors (.303/.376/.477, 79 SB in 1191 minor league ABs).  The change of address hasn't done him any good either.  In his first 302 at-bats with the Nationals this season, Milledge managed a paltry .245/.312/.368 line.  A funny thing happened in late June, though, when Milledge went on the DL with a groin injury.  Apparently, somebody snatched his body, and whoever is in his place has hit .313 with five home runs and 11 RBI in the 16 games since his return, including a ridiculous .415/.467/.829 line in 41 August at-bats.  So, Paul and Tom, is the 23-year-old Milledge finally coming into his own? Or is he bound to return to mediocrity? 

STATS (through August 14):  AB: 376  AVG: .258  HR: 12  RBI: 43  R: 43  SB: 16  H: 97

Paul: I'm not a big believer in Lastings Milledge, at least not the Milledge we've seen over the last month or so.  He's always had 20/20 potential, and it's possible he’ll reach those totals by the end of this season, but what he's been doing over the last few weeks is just unsustainable (.435 BABIP over the last seven days).  If you're looking for him to hit over .300, with 30-home run power over the balance of the season, then you'll be disappointed.  If you're looking for a Mike Cameron-like player, then Milledge is your man.  He's certainly a viable option for those in need of steals, and because of his age, he makes for speculative keeper league fodder.  But I wouldn't look for him to make a significant contribution in any other category, at least not the rest of this season.  If the trade deadline for most leagues hadn't already passed, I would've told you to sell high.  Why? Because what you're seeing out of Milledge right now is pure, unadulterated Fool's Gold. 
Tom:   Excuse me, Paul, while I wipe the Kool-Aid mustache off of my upper lip, because as a Mets fan, I must have drank gallons of it.  Since 2003, we Mets fans were told that Milledge was the second coming of Gary Sheffield.  When scouts talked about Milledge back in 2003, they raved about his bat speed.  They said that if this kid could show some plate discipline and resist swinging at balls outside the strike zone, he could even reach 30/30, Paul.  Of course, early in his career he has only shown that he is an immature 23-year-old who can't quite put it together.  Well, let me tell you, Lastings Milledge is really starting to show what he is made of.  Paul already pointed out the ridiculous numbers he's been putting up early in August.  The kid can play, there is no question about it.  And Milledge is the kind of player who you do NOT want to have prove his worth in this league – especially if you are his opponent.  However, if you are his teammate or his fantasy owner, this is the kind of Milledge you want on the field.  His potential is there, and he is starting to play with a little chip on his shoulder.  It may be a bit of a reach to call him the next Gary Sheffield, but I don't think he's too far off.  Take Milledge now while you still can, because he is proving his critics wrong and showing them that he is indeed the Mother Lode. 

FRANCISCO LIRIANO, SP, MIN

Pete Becker's love child won't be back to full strength until 2009 but could help down the stretch. Photo Credit: aturkus

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2006, Francisco Liriano was given a clean bill of health heading into the 2008 season.  Liriano promptly returned to the Twins starting rotation out of spring training, but unfortunately, he looked nothing like the pitcher who posted a 12-3 record, 2.16 ERA, and 144 Ks in only 121 IP in 2006.  How bad was he? How about an 0-3 record with an 11.32 ERA?  Most glaring was the 7:13 K/BB ratio he posted during those three starts (10.1 IP).  Minnesota immediately sent him to the minors to work on his mechanics and control.  Although things weren't looking good through his first few starts, he eventually turned things around in a big way.  In 20 minor league starts, Liriano went 10-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 121 Ks in 123.1 innings. Over his last 10 starts, he was even more dominant.  So dominant that there were many speculating (including his own agent) that the Twins were only keeping him in the minors to delay his arbitration date.  This, coupled with the horrendous efforts of Livan Hernandez, finally opened up a rotation spot for Liriano, and he returned to the majors on August 1.  In two starts since, Liriano has gone 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA and 10 Ks in 11.1 IP.  The question is now, can he build on the success he's had over the last few months, or will he continue to struggle in his first consistent major league action since going under the knife in 2006?  Tom and Paul weigh in. 

STATS (through August 14):  GS: 5 IP: 22.0  H: 24 ER: 16 BB: 18 K: 17 W: 2 WHIP: 1.91 ERA: 6.55

Paul: Let me start off by saying I have a HUGE love affair with Francisco Liriano.  It goes back to 2006, when he played an instrumental part in helping me win one of my leagues (I finished almost 30 points higher than the second-place team).  What we saw from Liriano then was nothing short of sheer dominance.  Up until the day he tore his elbow ligament, he was simply the best pitcher in baseball--no small feat when your teammate is a guy by the name of Johan Santana.  Anyway, when I read this spring that Liriano was throwing all of his pitches and was set to start the season in the Minnesota rotation, I was extremely excited.  So excited that I went into a profanity-laced tirade when someone in my league drafted him right before my turn came up.  Needless to say, that didn't exactly work out for my league mate, and so he dropped Liriano after about a month on the DL.  That's when I swooped in.  Now, let me tell you why.  Liriano's struggles at the beginning of this season were the result of a change in mechanics, a complete loss of control, and ultimately, a shattered psyche.  It was as if he had to learn how to pitch all over again because somehow, somebody convinced him that he needed to change his delivery to avoid injury.  A real good way to build confidence in a guy coming off Tommy John surgery, right?  I'm no major league ball player, but if someone did that to me, I'd be constantly worried about getting hurt again.  Thankfully, cooler heads prevailed (or Liriano just said "to hell with this crap, I'm going back to what got me here"), and Liriano went back to basics.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the results showed.  Granted, his success following the change was against minor league talent, but since his issues were based on confidence in the first place, it turned out to be just what the doctor ordered.  I certainly wouldn't expect him to return to the form he displayed in 2006 (that can wait until 2009), but I think he'll be a mighty fine starting pitcher down the stretch.  I'd expect him to get about 6-8 starts the rest of the way (from an innings standpoint, the Twins would be irresponsible to let him go every five days through game 162), at least five wins, 45 Ks, and an ERA around 3.25.  Any starting pitcher who can put up those types of numbers in only a month and a half has to be considered the Mother Lode!

Tom:  I talked to my Twins guy, and he has had nothing but great things to say about Liriano’s return.  That's good news, right?  It would be if it weren't coming from the eighth-place guy in one of my leagues.  I get the love affair with Liriano, Paul.  He's a great talent, and as you pointed out, he's been pretty stellar since being recalled to the majors after a lengthy rehab in the minor leagues.  Let me play devil's advocate, though, for the moment.  If you don't have Liriano, then you are pretty much out of luck.  He is owned in just about 100 percent of leagues.  So, you would have to trade for him--assuming your league's trade deadline has yet to pass.  So, where does he stand for those who are “lucky” enough to own him?  He's a young talent coming off a major injury.  That does not bode well as far as I'm concerned.  You can talk all you want about his success in the minors, but his big league starts have not been too impressive.  He's only thrown 11.2 innings in his past two starts.  That's not good.  He's averaged 98 pitches in those two starts and has been sharp, but not the Francisco Liriano we all raved about in 2006.  Sure, he came off of a major surgery, and, yes, the Twins are going to be very careful with him and…oh, who am I kidding?  He is a major talent, and if you are lucky enough to have held onto him since day one, then you have hit the Mother Lode, my friend.  I would have loved to have been able to make a case against him, Paul, but I just can't do it.  Enjoy Liriano!    

DENARD SPAN, OF, MIN

It's been quite a ride for this 24-year-old rookie.  After essentially outplaying his outfield counterparts in Minnesota, Denard Span looks like he is more than ready to play every day in the big leagues.  After hitting .321 in 84 July at-bats, Span has continued his hot streak into August, posting a .333 batting average in his last 10 games.  Also impressive are the 20 runs he scored in July.  That can mostly be attributed to the .424 on-base percentage he posted last month.  With tremendous discipline at the plate and a knack for reaching base, there are plenty of reasons why Span has been the talk of many waiver wire discussions.  As mentioned, he's outplayed both Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez since he's gotten the call as the everyday right fielder.  It's impressive what this youngster is doing for a team that is very much alive in the American League playoff hunt.  Of course, the question has to be raised whether Span can keep up this pace as the playoff push continues; especially when you start talking about a playoff team whose starting outfield has combined for twelve home runs all season.  Can the Twins live with Span in the everyday lineup?  More importantly, can you?  Paul and Tom take a stab at these questions and many more.

STATS (through August 14):  AB: 169   AVG: .308  HR: 2  RBI: 18  R: 31  SB: 8  H: 52

Tom:  Many times throughout the season I find myself in need of help in specific categories.  Runs scored is one of them.  Here's a guy who is the perfect cure for what ails you if you have the same problem as I do – no, not a bladder control problem, a “batter” control problem (you guys can use that one if you want.  It's on the house!).  Here's where Span helps you: runs scored, batting average, walks, and hits.  He plays a small man's game, but without a lot in the stolen base department, although he is on pace to steal 15 bases this season.  I seem to have a penchant for these kind of players, but there is one thing that concerns me. His lack of power and lack of production in stolen bases do not really make sense for me.  He is not in the same category as the Jose Reyes' and Brian Roberts' of the world.  Another thing they have on Span is that they are middle infielders, and he is an outfielder.  It is widely accepted that a middle infielder who steals 40+ bases does not have to hit more than 10-12 home runs per season.  Span won't reach either of those numbers. I know, he hasn't played a full season, but his projected numbers are four home runs and 15 stolen bases in 303 at-bats.  Go ahead and double those numbers and you still aren't talking about a guy in the same ballpark as Carl Crawford or Ichiro, who are outfielders you can live with in the “lacking power” department.  Again, are the Twins going to stick with another outfielder who lacks power in their lineup as they try to win the American League Central?  I suppose they are.  But, are you?  I wouldn't.  Denard Span has made my list of players who are Fool's Gold.  Sorry, Span.

Paul: You know who Denard Span is, Tom?  He’s Ryan Theriot.  And there’s nothing wrong with that, except for the same exact point that you just brought up–-Span is an outfielder.  I guess he’s a decent base stealer, but if we’re talking about the rest of this season, what’s he good for?  Six or seven more?  Clearly, not a difference maker there.  As for his current .319 batting average?  That’s just another thing he has in common with Theriot--it’s not for real.  Span is a career .287 minor league hitter and hit only .267 in a full season at Triple-A just last season.  Even if Span manages to hit .290 this season, that means he’s due to hit about only .260 the rest of the way.  Factor in his current .361 BABIP, and a drop in batting average is, dare I say, inevitable. I suppose he could still score a good amount of runs from today through the end of September, but so could a lot of other available players, I’m sure.  Fool’s Gold all the way.  And I’m not even sorry for saying it.

JEFF KARSTENS, SP, PIT

Most recently known as one of the “big league-ready” throw-ins in the Yankees and Pirates swap of Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for prospects, Jeff Karstens has found himself in the middle of a struggling Pirates rotation.  He has also been the best of the four prospects the Pirates got in return from the Yankees to date.  In his first three starts as a Pirate, Karstens is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP.  Talk about a “throw-in” player, huh?  However, in his two years of service as a Yankee, he posted a 3-5 record with a 5.65 ERA in 15 games pitched.  Those aren't the numbers you want from a pitcher on your fantasy team (or any team, for that matter).  However, we’re talking about a pitcher on a non-contending team who has little to no pressure to perform. Right now, the Pirates are just evaluating their young talent for next year. So, Paul and Tom, it seems like Karstens will remain in the rotation for the remainder of the season for the Pirates, but what kind of numbers can we expect from him?  Is he the Mother Lode or is he pure Fool's Gold?

STATS (through August 14):  GS: 3 IP: 22.0  H: 14 ER: 3 BB: 7 K: 8 W: 2 WHIP: 0.95 ERA: 1.23

Tom:  I saw a few of Karstens’ starts with the Yankees, and they really liked his potential, but he wasn't able to put it together.  He gave up ten home runs in 57.1 innings as a Yankee, and his K/BB ratio was almost 1/1 (21 Ks and 20 BBs).  Right now Karstens is a guy who now has no pressure pitching for a last place team in Pittsburgh. He can just go out and pitch and not worry about the media attention or the snarly old Bronx cheers getting thrown his way. He can throw six innings and get a no decision while giving up four earned runs, and no one will think twice about it.  In the Bronx, his name would have been all over the back pages and thrown around on talk radio by some loud-mouth named Jerome from Manhattan.  Will this make a difference on a guy like Karstens?  It seems so, but I'm not a big fan.  After he took a perfect game into the eighth inning of his first start as a Pirate, he really hasn’t been that impressive.  Take the fact that in 22.0 innings this year, he has only eight strikeouts. Remember also that he won’t get much run support.  So what does he give you?  A nice ERA and a reputable WHIP?  It seems like that's all you're going to get, and even that’s not a guarantee.  You aren't going to be pleased with his output for the rest of the season, so pass on this Fool's Gold.  You'll thank me later.      

Paul:  You know, Tom, if they made this deal about two months ago, I would’ve been much higher on Karstens.  Not that he’s a fantasy stud by any means, but when Jason Bay and Xavier Nady were still in Pittsburgh, the Pirates were one of the best offensive teams in the National League (quite shocking, to say the least).  Karstens would not have only found himself pitching in a non-pressure situation, but he would’ve had plenty of run support to boot.  Based on his minor league track record (3.52 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 640 innings), I think he can be a solid pitcher down the stretch for the Pirates.  But like you said, I don’t think he’ll be in line for many wins.  Besides, at this point in the fantasy season, unless you’ve got a true difference maker in the ERA and WHIP categories, your standing there is pretty much static.  Karstens is not a difference maker, he’s Fool’s Gold. 

Well, it's been a fun week having “Closers: Pecking Order's” very own Paul Bourdett fill in for Matt.  Next week things should be back in “order,” but Tom wants Paul to know that they'll always have August 16, 2008.  Contact Paul at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or Tom at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it . 

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