I've got a myth to bust this week in Crazy Talk. It involves a running back in a high powered offense who gets many fantasy prognosticators all tingly in their bathing suit areas. Everywhere I turn, I hear this guy is going to have a breakout year, posting mad numbers and finally living up to his potential. Many of these calls are based on nothing more than the colors this guy wears. This man’s name is Laurence Maroney of the New England Patriots, and he is not worthy of the hype.

New England will spread the fantasy points around this year but will there be enough left over for Laurence? Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Maroney is going WAY too early in most drafts. His average draft position at Mock Draft Central is currently No. 20, which would put him in the late second/early third round of most drafts. This is high on fire. The way I see it, Maroney is a sixth round draft pick, tops.

The reasons for this are many. Let’s start at the wide end of the spectrum and work our way down. Right off the bat, unless someone is able to rip a hole in the space/time continuum, there just aren’t enough carries for Maroney to break through this year, or any year. I consulted NASA and various members of the clergy, and they said that if such a rip were to occur, it would probably be for something big, like Ragnarok or Armageddon. The Patriots are a pass first, pass second, pass always team. Considering that their QB, Tom Brady, is making an increasingly convincing case for all-time greatest at the position, this is only natural. Additionally, last year the other two Patriot RBs, Kevin Faulk and Sammy Morris, combined for just slightly fewer carries than Maroney. [Editor's Note: And Morris missed a bunch of time hurt]

Statistically speaking, there are only so many points to go around for the Patriots’ offense. The Pats scored the most points in NFL history last year. What are the odds they even come close to doing that again? Their point totals are bound to go down, and I’ll tell you right now where these losses will come from: the running game. The Patriots will not throw the ball less; it’s not their style.

Sure, teams will watch some film and catch up a bit to the Pats’ plans, but what are they gonna do? Stop Brady from throwing to the open man? He distributes the ball better than any QB in the league. Stop Randy Moss? Good luck with that. Yes, the Pats adjust their offense throughout the season to focus on different players, but they’re neither capable nor in need of a change in their style of play from arena football "writ large" to smash mouth. It would be a waste of talent if they did. Brady, Moss, Wes Welker, Ben Watson, and even Faulk are too good at their jobs to be wasted on running the Steelers’ playbook.

Looking at the Pats’ offensive line, this is a unit assembled to pass block, but not to run block. Their personnel consists of relatively smallish, athletic, smart players whose job it is to keep Brady from getting killed when he drops back to pass. Neither the players nor the complicated blocking schemes are particularly suited to running the ball.  And speaking of blocking, Maroney is notoriously deficient in pass protection, a big minus if you want to get quality playing time in the Pats offense. Actually, Faulk got significantly more playing time than Maroney last season.

Whether it is because he doesn’t have the trust of the coaching staff or because he has flippers for hands, the Pats do not throw Maroney the ball, either. In the past two regular seasons, he caught a total of 26 balls, including just four last year. Four! You know who else on the Pats had four catches last year? FB Heath Evans.

When combined with the passing-game-oriented skill set of Faulk, Maroney’s deficiencies in this department lead to him being pulled on third down (sometimes even second down), resulting in fewer overall touches.

This cut in his playing time also bleeds into the running game. Only four times over his career have the Pats given Maroney the ball 20 or more times in a game. Yes, there is the excuse that this never allows him to get in a rhythm, but hey, we’re talking about the design of a system here. Bill Belichick and his coaches call a pass-heavy game, because these plays give the team the best opportunity to win. Obviously, it is working. As a matter of fact, the Pats have only had two 1,000 yard rushers since Brady joined the team in 2000, and neither of them was Maroney.

In the category that matters most to a fantasy RBs’ totals, carries in the red zone, Maroney is lacking as well. He only got 14 goal line carries in 2007, converting just three. Evans is just as likely to get the call near the end zone as Maroney; he scored three times as well. It actually took Maroney until week 11 to score his first touchdown of the season, and he only scored six overall. The Pats tend to throw near the goal line, as evidenced by Moss’ 14 red zone TDs and Watson’s six. Maroney’s already low TD totals could decrease even further if the Pats decide to keep banger Lamont Jordan on the roster in 2008.

Isn’t Maroney injury prone as well, you ask? Why yes, thanks for asking. He has missed five games in his two year career. He was even in Belichick’s doghouse for a while last season, because the Spymaster thought that Maroney was milking a groin injury. He also played with an injured shoulder last year. I don’t know about you, but that sounds like “injury prone” to me. Why does he get injured so much?  A lot of it has to do with his upright running style and tendency to goof around behind the line, looking for the big play instead of hitting the hole with authority.

To put this all into fantasy drafting terms, you have to ask who are the other guys with numbers equivalent to Maroney last year, and where are they going in the draft this year? Well, their names are Chester Taylor and DeShaun Foster, and they recently went in rounds eight and 15, respectively, in the RotoExperts League draft. Nothing against Taylor, but if he wasn’t a handcuff for Adrian Peterson, he wouldn’t get nearly as much attention as Maroney, even if he posted a similar performance a year ago.

Taking all of these things into account, I see nothing to indicate that Maroney is trending upwards. Yeah, he had a good slate of games very late in the season and during the playoffs, but that hardly erases his subpar efforts during the rest of the year. I’ll put on my swami hat for a minute and project that a relatively healthy Maroney produces slightly better in 2008 than last year, notching 999 rushing yards (I can’t in good conscience project him as a 1,000 yard back), 113 receiving yards, and seven TDs. Slot him about where you’d slot Brandon Jacobs, because they are the same guy.

I know, I’m killing the guy here, but when a player is as overrated as Maroney, I feel that it’s my sacred duty to let you know. I lie awake at night worrying about these things. Don’t let this guy fish you in on draft day. If you do, I’ll never let you live it down.

Don’t get Mike Gilbert wrong, he’d love for his Saints to have a back like Laurence Maroney on their roster. As long as Maroney is not on Mike’s own fantasy roster, he’s got nothing but love for the guy. Residents of the greater Boston area can direct their hate mail to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

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