Bala Pavananthan (Edmonton, Canada): I am in a 10-team, four-player, points per reception keeper league. I am keeping Plaxico Burress, Wes Welker, Steve Smith and Frank Gore. I have a chance to get Carson Palmer in a trade (I lose Burress in that deal). Also, if I get Palmer, I have a chance to trade Gore and Palmer for Tom Brady and Ryan Grant. Would you do this? If I make the Brady trade, I lose my first round pick in this year's draft. Right now I have two first rounders, a sixth and an eighth. Who would you target? This is who is available:
RB - Brandon Jacobs, Earnest Graham, Jonathan Stewart, Kevin Smith, Rashard Mendenhall
QB - Derek Anderson, Matt Hasselbeck
TE - Jason Witten
I'm leaning towards going with Stewart and Witten and drafting a quarterback with my three third round picks. I think Anderson will be a bust.
My Angles: In any scoring system, any time you can get Brady, you have to push for it. But I would get full assurance from the Brady owner that he will make that deal before you start putting things in motion. That deal sounds weighted in your favor for sure, and may just be bait to open talks rather than an actual trade offer. I would not trade for Palmer to lose Burress in a PPR league. Taking Anderson in the first round is a bit of a stretch from the keeper perspective, but I disagree that he will be a bust for this year and since you have two first-rounders, it is worth the "reach" at the eighth pick, although I would rather get him a bit later. If you wait, he will go off the board, so it's not where his value lies so much as he fills a need. You want to win this year, and Anderson has a great supporting cast and is very effective in the Cleveland offense. If you're simply not comfortable with taking him with such a high pick, though, I can see that. Since Hasselbeck isn't worth a first rounder, you should wait until the third round for a QB if you can't make the Brady trade. I'd rather see you keep Burress and go for Anderson than acquire Palmer if you can nab a good longer-term backup for the Cleveland passer in the following rounds. Other than Anderson, I would certainly hope Witten falls to you in the first round, and among the RBs next to Gore, it's a close call, but Stewart has the best long-term ceiling, even if DeAngelo Williams still figures heavily in the picture for now. You should strongly consider another RB in the third round that can start for you this year if Stewart doesn't produce as consistently as you like in his first season. Jacobs may have durability issues, and Graham has to be re-evaluated annually. Mendenhall is very close to Stewart, but I still like the Carolina RB just a bit better because he may earn something close to a full-time job quicker, even if it's not right away. Yet I would not balk at you taking Mendenhall, as it's that close, pretty much a tossup. Smith is less equipped physically to be a regular ball carrier when compared to Stewart and Mendenhall.
Scott Richards: Am I crazy for considering Brian Westbrook over LaDainian Tomlinson at No. 1 in a 12-team PPR league? His receiving and overall value as the centerpiece of the offense is tough to overlook. Also, do you expect Norv Turner to let Philip Rivers pass a bit more this year?
My Angles: You're not crazy, you're just a fantasy football owner, and mama, we're all crazy now. Westbrook obviously has tremendous appeal in a PPR league, but Tomlinson is on the verge of a big year and is no pass-catching also-ran himself. He's the best pick in any fantasy format, and that is certainly no knock on Westbrook. The TD totals really cinch it for me, as Tomlinson will get you well over 15 total scores combined, while Westbrook may top out at about a dozen. If Westbrook catches 30 more balls than Tomlinson, he can still fall behind LT because of the touchdown totals, All Tomlinson needs is six more scores than Westbrook to make up such a difference, and if LT goes over 20 total TDs, he will be far ahead of Westbrook in the end. Tomlinson simply has a higher statistical bar. As for Rivers, I see an increase in completions, conversions and total TDs. He has certainly turned a corner in his development, and the San Diego offense will have great balance in 2008. Rivers will be a superb fantasy backup and borderline starter at minimum, even while Tomlinson continues to roll along for another year.
Mark Bechtold: I play in an auction keeper league that allows you to retain six players (at their prior year's salary plus 10 percent plus four rookies). Each year we have a rookie draft that allows you to acquire the players under contract for three years at low salaries ($6 for top five, $5 for 5-10, and $4 thereafter). The draft is only two rounds but it is vital in building your team for the future. Since I relied on Shaun Alexander, Thomas Jones and Steven Jackson last year, I have the first pick in this year's draft. Before our trade deadline last year, I also traded Plaxico Burress for the fifth pick in this season's draft, and Jackson for the eighth pick (Jackson was at $151 out of $400 total cap, so I figured he won't be kept this year and should be available in this year's auction).
I was thinking of taking Darren McFadden with the No. 1 overall pick, but I have read some stories and seen some mock drafts that have Matt Forte as the best available rookie. Also, do you have a preference between Forte, Jonathan Stewart, Kevin Smith or Rashard Mendenhall? I will at least be able to get one of them with the fifth pick. Lastly, any ideas for the eighth pick (I am thinking Ray Rice)? I wasn't sure if there was a rookie WR worth taking (maybe James Hardy).
My Angles: With the work you did to obtain all that first-round action, you really don't have to speculate much on who will fall where after that first pick, just take the best players that are available to you. Forte may be the best rookie for statistical production this year, and is certainly the safest-looking guy for regular work. But he lacks McFadden's upside, especially in the longer term. You simply have to take McFadden with that first pick. Then, as already outlined in my previous answer, I would take Stewart, Mendenhall and Smith, in that order. Rice may not be a consistent starter for awhile and is not worth a first-rounder right now. Besides, if you pick two RBs with the first two selections, you have to address another position instead of taking a player who may be a flex/reserve option. Hardy makes the most sense, as he has the opportunity to make a quick impact and has a very bright
outlook as an ideal complement to Lee Evans in the long term.
Shane Birch: I have the sixth pick in a two-player non-PPR keeper league. I kept Ronnie Brown and Reggie Bush (don't ask why). Should I target a RB with my first-round pick, even though the best one available may be Jamal Lewis or Michael Turner, or should I grab a stud WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson?
My Angles: Bush's injury concerns aren't nearly as large as Brown's, obviously, but he should be a very good PPR starter if he has no major setbacks this year. I fully understand your need for stability at the position, but with your first-rounder, you shouldn't be looking for "insurance", but rather a superstar, someone as close to a franchise player as possible. Neither Turner nor Lewis fit that description, while the WRs you cite certainly do. Grab the best available player at another position with that first pick, and then shore up your RB situation in the second or third rounds if you like.
Mark Ciraldo: What would be your draft strategy in a two-QB League for the first six rounds??? It is a PPR league, and we start two QBs, TE, K, DEF and six flex players at RB/WR/TE. The league has 10 teams and 18 rounds in the draft.
What do think of this strategy?
Pick No. 8: QB, Pick 13 RB
Pick 28: WR
Pick 33: Best Available or TE (If top three are available at the position)
My Angles: I don't believe you can adhere to any preset strategy in any format, especially after the first pick. There are simply too many twists and turns, even at the fourth overall pick. You never know for sure what will happen and you just have to be prepared to adjust on the run. There's no real way to effectively plan ahead except to simply fill out your starting lineup as best you can in the first few rounds, be prepared with a solid cheat sheet, and take the best player available at your position of need when it is your turn. I would say make sure you take two quarterbacks in the first four rounds, no matter where you get them, because they are going to disappear very fast. Get at least one RB and one WR with your other two picks, and focus on those positions, as well as TE, in rounds five through eight. WR can be deep, there are good values at TE this year. You'll see more question marks at RB than QB if you have to start nearly the same amount, so go with two more sure things in those first four rounds. Just make sure you have "anchor" players at WR and RB in those first four non-QB picks, possibly pushing one back to the fifth round if you can land a top TE.
Kyle Christensen: In a 10-team league, what importance would you place on drafting a top four QB in a format that values all TDs at six pts, and offers bonuses for passing for 300 yards (three points) and 400 yards (five points)?
My Angles: This is pretty standard stuff for my player ratings, as many leagues have those same TD values, and the second bonus is obviously not something you are expecting. It's just a nice extra if it happens. Brady is an apparent top five pick who I would take third overall, maybe even second if the other owners in your league place a high emphasis on QBs. It's not as much the scoring to consider as what you expect to see your league mates do. You never know for sure, but take the QB early if you have seen a trend in the past to emphasize QBs early and you want to assure yourself of a top starter. Ideally, I would expect Peyton Manning to go in the second round, and Drew Brees and Tony Romo no later than the fourth. But again, maybe you take them a bit earlier if you sense the need to do so based on past drafts in your league.
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