The waiver wire is a jungle. Danger lurks in every pickup, so what’s a fantasy owner to do?  Don’t worry. Tom and Matt are armed with “Machetes of Knowledge” and will clear a path for you all the way to your fantasy baseball championship!

Late August is a busy time, especially this year.  Not only do you have NFL training camps in full swing, college football ready to start, your fantasy football drafts to prepare for, but you also have the Olympics fighting for your time.  We'll assume you've already made time for your family, work, and dog!  But for those of you with visions of fantasy baseball championships dancing in your head, stay focused.  As more owners in your league become less involved with their teams, this is the time to pounce on those hot free agents on your waiver wire.  Since the final trade deadline for baseball is a little more than a week away, and most likely the trade deadline for your fantasy baseball league has already expired, the waiver wire is now your only avenue for helping your team make that final push. Let's hope you were able to sneak in a deadline deal to help your team, but if not--don't worry--Tom and Matt will guide you through the end of the season.

September 1 is the day major league teams are allowed to expand rosters, but some teams have already started to add minor leaguers because their farm teams are out of playoff contention.  So, for the rest of the season, Tom and Matt are going to spend time each week analyzing top prospects who’ve already been called up, or will be soon. Don't you worry, they'll also be sure to sprinkle in a few veterans who could make a positive impact on your team. So, Tom and Matt, what fantasy nuggets have you unearthed this week?

DANIEL MURPHY, OF/3B, NYM

From the “where did he come from” department, we give you Daniel Murphy, the starting left fielder for your NL East-leading New York Mets.  Murphy is a third baseman by trade who has moved to the outfield, since the Mets currently have one of the game's top third basemen in David Wright.  Murphy has been terrific since his call-up to the big leagues on August 2.  He's been playing just about every day and, whoa boy, has he been something.  Hitting .429 for the season with an OBP of .520, Murphy has been the hot topic in the Metropolitan area.  With the Mets in a dogfight with the Phillies for the division title, they must see something they like in Murphy, because he is playing every day and is proving to be a sufficient substitute for Moises Alou or super sub Endy Chavez.   The Mets have faith in Murphy, but should you?  Matt and Tom take a closer look at his numbers and put two and two together and somehow get you four. 

STATS (through August 20):  AB:  47  AVG:  .404  HR:  2  RBI:  11  R:  10  SB:  0

Tom:  Murphy wasn't on many people's radar since he hadn't even cracked the Mets Top-10 Prospects list in Baseball America.  That can't be a good sign, especially when you are talking about a franchise who many think doesn't have 10 major league-ready talents in their entire farm system.  In addition, we're talking about a Triple-A third baseman who is stuck behind David Wright, which really doesn't help his case either.  But, man, has he been great so far.  As a Mets fan, I am more than pleased with his play in left field.  First of all, Alou is out for the season.  Second, he is better than Endy Chavez as an everyday player, and he is better than a healthy Marlon Anderson.  However, none of those three are everyday fantasy players.  Is Murphy?  In deeper leagues, I would say yes.  He hasn't shown much power at the plate, with only five of his 19 base hits going for extra bases, but his OBP is the key.  He has 19 hits and eight walks in 47 at-bats.  So, as you can see, he is patient at the plate, which can only help him drive good pitches to the gap or over the wall.  In the minors, he wasn't much of a power hitter, but he did show some pretty decent gap power.  He hit 13 home runs and 26 doubles in 357 at-bats in the Eastern League.  In a full season, he has the potential for 45 doubles and 22-23 home runs.  If you need to fill a hole in your outfield, I think you should certainly take a look at Murphy, especially if you are in a deep league.  He's an exciting player in the middle of a playoff race, but don't let that scare you away.  Murphy is the Mother Lode, deep leagues.            

Matt:  Not only was David Murphy not on anyone’s radar, you wouldn’t have been able to find him with a GPS system earlier this season.  Tom, I love your enthusiasm, but “better than Endy Chavez” and “better than… Marlon Anderson”?  Talk about damning with faint praise. But in the small sample size we have so far, Murphy has shown us a couple things--he has a good eye at the plate, and he can make consistent contact.  For example, in 47 major league at-bats, he has eight walks and only seven strikeouts.  Like Tom said, Murphy hasn’t shown much power yet, and that is consistent with his approach, which is to hit line drives.  The one drawback on Murphy is his poor defense. At Single-A St. Lucie, Murphy had 36 errors in 135 games at third base.  For the moment, the Mets are protecting him against left-handed pitching.  In 47 at-bats, only three of them have been against lefties, although two of those at bats resulted in hits.  Although he has played 18 games for the Mets, he has started only 11.  Until the Mets are committed to starting him every day, I don’t believe he will have much value this year.  Stash him on your bench if you must, but he looks more like Fool’s Gold to me.

The former Golden Gopher was the #22 overall pick in 2004. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

GLEN PERKINS, SP, MIN

Glen Perkins has been another under-the-radar pitcher this season, but after winning eight of his last nine decisions, this lefty is starting to get noticed.  With a 10-3 record on the season, fantasy owners are starting to assess his fantasy value.  While you're making your playoff push, those wins certainly will help you gain leverage on your opponents.  The problem with Perkins, though, is that none of his other numbers really stand out. In fact, they are downright mediocre.  With a 4.17 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the season, Perkins is not showing that he can help out fantasy owners in any other categories except wins.  Even in his most recent string of wins, he only has a 3.98 ERA in July and August.  Wins is a crucial category, however, and Perkins definitely seems to have a knack for accumulating them.  With the Twins flying high and Perkins benefiting from the Twins’ success, we have to start looking at Perkins as a Mother Lode candidate. Right, Matt and Tom?

STATS (through August 20):  IP:  116.2  W-L: 10-3  SV:  0  ERA:  4.17  WHIP:  1.42  K:  57

Tom:  If you've read our columns throughout the season, you know that Perkins is exactly the kind of pitcher I am not a fan of.  He has only 57 strikeouts in 116.2 innings.  But the fact that he's won 10 of his 19 starts is very intriguing.  There are always pitchers who just win.  And that's not a bad thing.  What’s bad is his WHIP (1.43), his ERA (4.17), and the .294 batting average hitters have against him.  That scares me quite a bit.  Sometimes the “wins” statistic can be similar to the “save” statistic, in that it’s not always a true measure of a pitcher’s ability, which is why you see some of the all-time save leaders get passed over in Hall of Fame voting.  It's a bit misleading.  Look at Perkins--he has one fewer win than ace Johan Santana in five fewer starts.  But, in every other category, Johan is head and shoulders, and head and shoulders again, above Glen Perkins.  His ERA, WHIP, and Ks are Manute Bol to Glen Perkins' Muggsy Bogues.  It's not even close, and it's pretty funny when you stand them side by side. I think that Perkins has no value because his winning percentage will eventually even out.  Can he win another five games with his 4.17 ERA and batters hitting almost .300 against him?  Don't count on it.  Perkins is, as my grandfather would say, a wooden nickel on your end table after a night of too much drinking--meaning, he's Fool's Gold.    

Matt:  Tom, that strikeout ratio is pretty putrid, especially when you consider that in the minors, Perkins struck out 353 batters in 345.1 innings.  So you have to wonder whether his stuff is only good enough to get minor leaguers out, or whether he needs a bit more seasoning before that strikeout pitch appears in the majors.  Well, Perkins features an above-average fastball and curveball and has good control.  Although he only has those 57 strikeouts in 116.2 innings, he has only walked 29 batters.  So what’s the problem?  How about the fact that he’s given up 137 hits in those 116.2 innings?  That’s brutal.  Also consider the fact that Perkins had shoulder surgery in May 2007. As a result, he missed the next 100 games.  When you add up all this information, it looks to me that he is still not 100% healthy.  The Twins seem to be a legitimate contender, and that could mean a decent amount of wins, but I agree with Tom--the expense of those wins is too high.  Perkins’ ERA is no help, and his WHIP is just awful.  On top of that, you’re not even getting strikeouts.  Leave Perkins on your waiver wire. He is most assuredly Fool’s Gold!

JEFF FRANCOEUR, OF, ATL

Jeff Francoeur was a first round draft pick of the Atlanta Braves in 2002.  He made his major league debut in 2005, and through 2007, his numbers had improved every season.  Although his home run totals were down from 2006 to 2007 (he hit 10 fewer home runs in 2007), he more than made up for that deficit by hitting 40 doubles and raised his batting average from .260 in 2006 to .293 in 2007.  Huge numbers were expected out of Francoeur heading into 2008.  He had turned 24 in January, and with almost 400 major league games already under his belt, he seemed poised for greatness.  But he started the season poorly and regressed from there.  At the end of April he had only three home runs, but a respectable 19 RBI, while hitting .273.  His batting average has dropped every month of the season, and he now sits at an embarrassing .231 through August 18.  His poor play earned him a three-day demotion to Double-A Mississippi in mid-July. Apparently that didn't motivate him properly, because since his return to Atlanta, he has basically hit his weight (.222 BA vs. 220 lb.), while hitting only one home run in 108 at-bats. So Matt and Tom, can Francoeur turn things around in the last seven weeks of the season, or is it better to cut your losses and explore other options for your outfield?

STATS (through August 20):  AB:  469 AVG:  .230  HR: 10 RBI:  55  R:  54  SB:  0

Matt:  Full disclosure here.  I am not a fan of Francoeur.  Never have been, never will be.  In fact, this year I inherited an existing dynasty league team, and before the season even started, the first trade I made was to jettison Jeff Francoeur.  Yes, I know that in 2006-2007 he hit a total of 48 home runs, and he had back-to-back 100-RBI seasons.  I wasn’t expecting greatness out of Francoeur, but I admit I didn’t predict the complete implosion he endured this year either.  In fact, when you look at some of his peripherals, it’s difficult to understand why his season has been so bad.  In 2006 his BB/AB rate was 28.3:1; in 2008 it is 14.9:1.  Still not great, but a vast improvement in two years, showing he is more selective at the plate.   The lack of home run power, though, is disturbing.  Francoeur has only 10 home runs this season.  He does have 24 doubles, so he hasn’t completely lost his power stroke.  With Atlanta firmly out of the playoff race, you might think Francoeur would be a little looser at the plate, since there is no pressure on him. However, the opposite seems to have occurred.  If Francoeur is on your waiver wire, you will be tempted to pick him up just because of his name.  I can see it now.  You’ll have your mouse hovering over that "add" button; your finger will be poised on that left mouse button.  Don’t give in, it’s not worth it.  This season is lost for Francoeur.  If you need some outfield help, look at Marlon Byrd or Jason Kubel instead.  Francoeur is Fool’s Gold.

Tom:  The best thing about Francoeur is that he’s one of the few available offensive players who can really turn your team around this late in the season.  He has the ability to hit 25-30 home runs and 100 RBI in a full season, but he’s been atrocious this season. This past Saturday, August 16, he went 4-for-5 with two runs scored, one double, and two RBI against the Giants.  Those kinds of games have been few and far between for the struggling Francoeur, but if he can put a string of those games together, we are talking about real waiver wire value.  The question is whether he’s capable of that.  We've always known that Francoeur is a free-swinger, so those 87 Ks come as no surprise.  Unfortunately, he’s showing absolutely no power at the plate, with only 10 homers, Francoeur’s problems might be mental, but they might also be fixable over the next seven weeks.  Life might be a bit easier for Francoeur now that the Braves are just about out of the playoff race.  Might Francoeur play better now that the pressure is off?  I think he might.  His ceiling is much higher than anything else you'll find on the waiver wires.  Keep an eye on him, because he could get hot at any time. For now, though, I have to put him in the Fool's Gold category. 

DAVID PRICE, SP, TB (currently in the minors)

David Price was the number one overall pick in the 2007 draft for the Rays.  Price is a lefthander who features an excellent fastball, an even better slider, and amazing command.  He turns 23 in just a few days (August 26), and after dominating hitters in Single-A and Double-A, he was recently promoted to the Rays Triple-A affiliate, the Durham Bulls.  In his two starts with the Bulls, Price hasn’t been all that impressive, pitching a combined nine innings, while giving up five earned runs, 12 hits, four walks, and nine strikeouts.  The big question remains: when will David Price be called up to the big show?  Barring a complete meltdown in Triple-A, the easy answer is that he’ll be called up before September 1 so that he’s playoff-eligible.  There are extenuating circumstances too.  Price injured his elbow earlier this season, so you would think the Rays would be cautious with their top prospect.  Matt and Tom, when do you foresee Price in a Rays uniform, and what can we expect from him in 2008?

STATS (minor leagues through August 20):  IP:  100.2  W-L: 11-1  SV:  0  ERA:  2.15  WHIP:  1.08  K:  101

Matt:  The one thing I don’t want to see is David Price getting called up to the majors to pitch out of the bullpen.  I don’t think that will help him in the long term.  I look at last year when the Yankees called up Joba Chamberlain.  Yes, he was awesome, at least up until the midges in Cleveland. However, this year, after being shuffled between the bullpen and the starting rotation, he has been out for the past three weeks because of tendonitis in his rotator cuff.  You have to believe that Tampa bay management will be extremely cautious in how they use Price.  Ideally, they would move Edwin Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine out of the rotation and put Price in the rotation.  However, both Jackson and Sonnanstine are pitching well, and Tampa may not want to tamper with success.  Price has all the skills and can make the pitches necessary to be a major league ace.  If you are in a one-year league, unless the pitching categories are very tight, Price probably isn’t a difference maker for your team.  However, if you are in a keeper or dynasty-style league, Price is absolutely the right guy to pick up.  Unless you have the number one waiver priority, you probably have very little chance of acquiring him.  This Price isn’t just right…. it’s the Mother Lode!

Tom:  There's not much we can talk about here, because Price is currently the top-rated pitching prospect in the game, and with that comes all the buzz.  Everyone in fantasy baseball is holding onto their number one waiver priority for this guy. But with all the hype, all we can really count on is that Price will likely disappoint.  Take a look at Chad Billingsley in 2006.  He was one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and he had a roller coaster of a season.  In his first three starts, he posted a 5.63 ERA, only to follow that up with a month of July in which he was 2-2 with a 3.15 ERA.  Then in August he really started to show his stuff and went 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.  Everything was going great until September hit.  I had Billingsley on my roster, and he killed me!  In his three September starts he was atrocious, posting an 11.42 ERA for the month.  My point is that with young pitchers, you never know what you are going to get.  When Price is pitching against the Red Sox in September, are you confident that your team won't take a huge hit if he gets shelled?  That's the problem with young pitching.  I don't want to sound like an old man, because no one loves young pitching like I do.  It's just that when we're talking about a major mistake in September, it's a lot harder to swallow than one in June or July.  My warning here is to be careful.  In a keeper league, this is a no-brainer.  For this season, though, he needs to prove it to me before I remove that “inexperienced” starter tag from his name.  Fool's Gold!  

Matt and Tom have given you advice on dozens of players so far this year.  If you have a success story you’d like to share, we’d love to hear about it.  Shoot us an e-mail on a great move you made after reading our column, and we’ll print all the responses in our September 20 column.  Contact Matt at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and Tom at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

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