If I had written the ultimate sleepers and busts article before the season, it should have resembled this one. Instead, like every other analyst on the planet, I had my fair share of hits and misses. The key to good fantasy analysis is not always being right; it is applying a system of evaluation that utilizes logic and reason rather than idle speculation and random guesses. I believe my analysis to be top rank, but man, oh man, do I wish I had been clairvoyant enough to assemble this list of sleepers and busts in February.

Jason's greatest assets unfortunately don't help fantasy owners much. Photo Credit: PreddieH3

Catcher

Retro-Busts: Victor Martinez, Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek

I am going to assume that Victor Martinez’s elbow was bothering him to start the season, which would explain the surprising lack of home runs in almost 200 at-bats.

Jorge Posada should have been on most bust lists this spring due to his 2007 career year, which he had no chance of duplicating. The season-long plague of injuries just made things worse for the Yankees’ aging star catcher.

Jason Varitek was another easy bust prediction. His advancing age and the downward trend in his stats almost ensured that a lousy season was in the cards.

Retro-Sleepers: Ryan Doumit, Kelly Shoppach, Yadier Molina

Ryan Doumit was supposed to be the back-up catcher and pinch hitter for the Pirates. We all knew he could hit, but his previous problems on defense and his long list of injuries lowered our expectations. We should have known that if he came into spring training healthy (which he did), hit as he was projected to (which he also did), and looked decent behind the plate (yep, he did that too), that Pirates manager John Russell would not be afraid to play him.

Kelly Shoppach is a product of the Martinez injury. If we had known in advance, he would have been on lots of sleeper lists because of his power-hitting ability.

A dramatic increase in plate discipline and contact rate has resulted in a fantastic season for the St. Louis Cardinals’ Yadier Molina. Molina’s relatively young age combined with years of experience should have convinced us of the possibility for improvement.

First Basemen

Retro-Busts: Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Carlos Guillen,

He has not had a terrible season, but we were all expecting more from Prince Fielder after his incredible 2007 season. His poor start is primarily responsible for his disappointing results. The idea that his vegetarianism sapped his power is ridiculous. I know plenty of muscle-bound vegetarians, and many fat ones, too.

Ryan Howard actually was on my bust list. I knew he could not hit for average. His power will be there for years to come, but like Adam Dunn, his average will plummet some seasons.

Had Carlos Guillen’s season been derailed due to injury, few of us would have been surprised. But we have come to expect him to hit well when healthy. His drop in power has been largely inexplicable, but most of us were surprised he developed it in the first place.

Retro-Sleepers: Lance Berkman, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols

Many analysts were frightened into placing Albert Pujols among their potential busts because of the elbow injury he chose not to have surgically repaired. I was not one of them. I have always differed from most fantasy experts by not including the possibility of injury in my projections. I will of course expect a discount in draft position or auction price, but my projections always reflect what a player is likely to do if he remains healthy for the entire season. Pujols as always is in the top five overall in fantasy value.

Lance Berkman has always been a great hitter. His numbers have always hinted at the potential for a huge season. It is too bad the Astros were not able to make better use of it.

We as analysts keep underestimating what Adrian Gonzalez can do batting in Petco Park. I bet we will not in 2009.

Second Basemen

Retro-Busts: Robinson Cano, Chone Figgins, Felipe Lopez

Do you remember the chat I had with Robinson Cano and the rest of my fantasy team? Cano’s brief hot streak is over. The New York newspapers are starting to point out that he is undisciplined at the plate and in the clubhouse.

If Chone Figgins does not hit any home runs and doesn’t steal 40 bases, how much value does he really have? This is not a trick question. The answer is none.

We should have downgraded Felipe Lopez further when the Nationals re-signed Ron Belliard. Most experts believed the Nationals would eventually find a role for him on the team, and that stolen bases alone would keep his value at an acceptable level. Whoops! His play since signing with the Cardinals (.327/.400/.449) after his release is more like we expected.

Retro-Sleepers: Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Mark DeRosa

Missing Ian Kinsler’s Fantasy MVP-worthy season is another case of projecting numbers based too much on injury potential. His late season injury is irrelevant; we should have expected more from a player at his age with upward-trending stats.

Most analysts expected solid production from Dustin Pedroia, but not a season where he ranked third at his position--above players such as Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, B.J. Upton, and Dan Uggla. We let size-related prejudice cast shadows over his power potential, despite a resume that demonstrated that potential, especially as a right-handed batter in Fenway Park.

We were all slaves to the same misconception as the Chicago Cubs--that Mark DeRosa was better suited to be a reserve than a season-long starter at second base. The Cubs seemed desperate to upgrade the position by trading for the Orioles’ Brian Roberts. Doubt him all that you like, but DeRosa is having his third consecutive productive fantasy season.

Shortstops

Retro-Busts: Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, Troy Tulowitzki

Jimmy Rollins might be the biggest fantasy bust of the season. I doubt this could have been predicted. His .271 BABIP suggests that he's had more than his fair share of bad luck this season.

Rafael Furcal had a fantastic start to the season, but then he suffered what we thought was a minor back problem. That minor problem has cost him an entire season.

Troy Tulowitzki was overrated to begin the season. He started slowly and then suffered a quadriceps injury that has limited him the entire season. He is better than this, but we were expecting too much.

Retro-Sleepers: Jhonny Peralta, Alexei Ramirez, Ryan Theriot

Jhonny Peralta was on a few sleeper lists, but we still underestimated his potential. The lousy performance from most of the Indians lineup has allowed him to stand out this season.

Since I recently announced my doubts about Alexei Ramirez (mostly due to a lack of historical reference), I have received a deluge of responses in his defense. I am very close to caving. If he continues his torrid hitting streak, I will have no choice but to become a believer.

Ryan Theriot, like Mark DeRosa, has not received the level of respect he deserves. He does not hit for much power, but batting .318 with 18 stolen bases will earn him a place on any fantasy team.

Third Basemen

Retro-Busts: Ryan Zimmerman, Hank Blalock,

It has been a great season for third basemen. Even the bust status of Ryan Zimmerman and Hank Blalock is primarily due to injury.

Retro-Sleepers: Kevin Youkilis, Melvin Mora, Mark Reynolds, Jorge Cantu

I will now toot my own horn for predicting the power surge of Kevin Youkilis--toot toot!

No one could have logically predicted that Melvin Mora would reverse years of downward trends to have a very solid season.

We let a lack of a track record deter us from touting Mark Reynolds very loudly.

Jorge Cantu was a deep sleeper for some of us who remembered how productive he had been a few years back. His uptick in plate patience and the Marlins faith were difficult to see in spring training, but his age and the fight he showed to earn a place in the majors again should have presented us with a bigger clue.

Outfielders

Retro-Busts: Carl Crawford, Hunter Pence, Hideki Matsui

Carl Crawford was a top-ten pick in most leagues; if anything, analysts were predicting bigger things with a much-improved team around him. Instead, Crawford has largely been a disappointment. Most fantasy teams would have been better off spending a quarter of the cost on Carlos Gomez, who until his late July slump was matching Crawford almost stride for stride.

Hunter Pence was another youngster from whom we were expecting too much, too soon. He still looks like a great long-term fantasy option.

Hideki Matsui was in a lot of trade rumors last offseason, and despite not being traded, he has been absent from the Yankees lineup for most of the season due to injuries. The Yankees lineup missed him.

Retro-Sleepers: Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Ludwick, Nate McLouth

We knew Josh Hamilton was good, but we let his long absence from the game and his adequate 2007 season keep our expectations from skyrocketing. We should let them blast off now.

I was smart enough to have Carlos Quentin on my short list, but not smart enough to project the 40-homer season he is on pace to have.

Ryan Ludwick has been amazing. I still think that everything but the power is a fluke and that he'll become a .240 hitter next season and won't see so many at-bats.

I have been bragging about Nate McLouth for the entire season. He is even starting to pick up the stolen base rate. Next year a 30/30 season is a real possibility. 

Designated Hitter

Retro-Busts: Travis Hafner, David Ortiz, Paul Konerko

We should have seen the writing on the wall--Travis Hafner had an entire novel up there. Hafner is a big, slow DH with declining skills, but so many were projecting a rebound. Collectively, we blew it.

I saw many experts predicting that David Ortiz would combine his great hitting for average in 2007 with a healthy-knees inspired return to 40-home-run power. Instead, he started dreadfully slowly and suffered a wrist injury that cost him months of at-bats. Maybe next year.

Paul Konerko has always been prone to lengthy streaks of poor hitting. We should have been quicker to see that advancing age would increase the length and frequency of those streaks.

Retro-Sleepers: Aubrey Huff

Much dap is due to anyone who predicted that Aubrey Huff would be a top-25 fantasy option this season. The big question: can Huff do it again?

Starting Pitchers

Retro-Busts: Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, Justin Verlander, Brett Myers

If you are looking for proof that ERA is a meaningless stat, Josh Beckett is a perfect example. He has almost the exact statistical indicators that he had in 2007, but his ERA makes it look like a horrid season. He will probably be a bargain next season, assuming that his recent injury is not serious.

I believe Erik Bedard put too much pressure on himself to deliver for his new team. Pressure led him to overthrow, which in turn led to arm problems.

Justin Verlander has not been as bad as he looks. A lousy month or so can really put a hurt on your season stats.

Brett Myers has great stuff, but he just plain stinks as a starter.

Retro-Sleepers: Cliff Lee, Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer, Ryan Dempster

Cliff Lee is the pitching story of the season. We knew he had the skills, but we let a couple of mediocre seasons influence our analysis too much.

Rich Harden is another example of why allowing a history of injuries to affect your projections is a mistake. Your league will provide the discount; don’t put the discount in your projections.

Justin Duchscherer and Ryan Dempster were both relief pitchers moving to the starting rotation. We let questions about endurance and long histories in the bullpen sway us. Both pitchers had the variety and quality of stuff to succeed, but we ignored it. 

Relief Pitchers

Retro-Busts: Huston Street, Joe Borowski, Jason Isringhausen, Rafael Betancourt

Huston Street traded effective pitching for increased health. He made a bad deal.

We all expected Joe Borowski to be a lousy closer, but I’ll send you a patented No-Prize if you predicted he would be out of baseball altogether.

And chances are that even if you knew Borowski was a goner, you thought Rafael Betancourt was the favorite to take over the closer role. He was terrible when given the chance and may be one of the most disappointing relief pitchers in fantasy this season.

Jason Isringhausen is suddenly plagued with doubts about his ability. This is what we have been led to believe, and I say it was impossible to predict.

Retro-Sleepers: Kerry Wood, Joakim Soria, Taylor Buchholz, Hong-Chih Kuo, Grant Balfour

 Kerry Wood is finally healthy after years of injuries. There is nothing else to it. I happen to believe that he would have been just as healthy pitching in the rotation.

Statistically, Joakim Soria should have been ranked among the best closers after his 2007 season. He will be in 2009.

The next class of closers-in-waiting should include the trio of Taylor Buchholz, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Grant Balfour, who have all been highly regarded in the past. We as analysts allowed smaller roles and big-name relievers with larger ones to color our rankings. This was a mistake.

What lessons can we take away from this? One of the largest is not to allow health issues to enter your projections. A much better idea is to allow your league and plain common sense to provide you with a discount at your draft or auction. We should also put a greater emphasis on age and positive statistical trends. We shouldn't discount players due solely to size and new roles.

Jon Williams loves to answer your questions via e-mail. If you have questions, comments, or insults to toss his way, send them to This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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