Jonathan Phillips ruminates on the return of Labor Day, the first sign of fall, and what it means to your teams if you're still scrounging for assistance.
It's not a strategy people think to employ, but if you're behind at this point of the season, you have probably tried to make a last-minute deal, or you've scoured the waiver wire like it was the last food source on earth. You've tried the smack talk and the bribe. You've even threatened the very friendship that brought you all together in your league if your foes didn't hand over the rights to either Josh Hamilton or Adrian Gonzalez right away. OK, maybe I have a few minor issues. There are still categories in which you can make up significant ground in this last month. There are others that if you're not close in, you might consider abandoning. Of course, you could do what many other fantasy owners do; start to snooze off or panic. Instead, you should keep an eye on the fountain of youth that will soon pervade the major leagues as we enter September. Shockingly, three of the small market teams are still in contention. The next month is crucial for their playoff run, so you can bet the expansion will include the best they have to offer. The other eight teams will be providing veritable auditions for the 2009 season. And you might even see a waiver trade or two. OAKLAND ATHLETICS Week: 3-4 L10: 4-6 Overall: 59-71, 3rd AL West Justin Duchscherer is back on the DL, but this time things are more worrisome. This is the same hip he had season-ending surgery on last June. It could be simply the fatigue of a long season on a surgically repaired, reliever-turned-starter. It could mean the end of his season, or worse, it could have career implications. With the A's season essentially over, Gerens should err on the side of caution, considering Duchscherer will turn 31 this November. Dana Eveland has returned, as well as Kirk Saarloos, but if you're seeking victories here, I wouldn't advise it. Oakland hitters are providing no run support since the All-Star break. Eveland's last start apparently fixed his mechanics, because he posted six-plus Ks for the first time since April 5. Then again, this recent gem was against Seattle. If he puts two together with that kind of K/9, he could help you this year. And he's got a high upside at age 25. The other piece of good news is that Brett Anderson, acquired in the Dan Haren trade, went eight innings to help the United States secure Olympic bronze. He surrendered four runs on four hits with six strikeouts and three walks. He also gave up two early long balls. Billy Beane may know how to find guys with high OBPs, but he never realized that stood for "OFF-BASE PERCENTAGE." He needs a MASH unit just to keep these guys on the field. Between Mark Ellis and his sore shoulder, Jack Cust's blurry vision (which is tremendously disconcerting even though it went away), Ryan Sweeney's thumb, Eric Chavez's shoulder, and Frank Thomas' soon-to-be-named ailment, it's no wonder the A's have trouble scoring. Watch this team, because they'll be looking to audition bats. UPCOMING SERIES: @LAA (8/25-8/27), MIN (8/28-8/31)
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Week: 4-2 L10: 7-3 Overall: 68-62, 1st NL West The Diamondbacks have 32 games left as of Sunday, with an equal split at home and on the road. Only two of the teams they'll face are above .500, which includes their seven remaining games with the Cardinals, and their crucial home-and-home series with the Dodgers. Justin Upton's oblique muscle seems to be on the mend, and he's back hitting in Triple-A Tucson. His return means a shifting of team dynamics. The odd man out is likely to be Chad Tracy, with Adam Dunn shifting to first base to make room for Upton. However, the flip side of that is the experience Tracy brings to multiple positions. This could mean a platoon for Upton to give breaks to the regulars. Upton is only 20, and confidence plays a serious role in player development. It's possible that Upton may see more bench time, because Dunn and Tracy are solid as fielding percentages go. Yusmeiro Petit will keep Max Scherzer away from the majors a little longer (probably until September 1) as he seemingly gets stronger. He's had two quality starts in his last two outings, each resulting in victory, and his K/9 for his past three starts is an 8.5. With the D-backs offense finding its stride again in August, and considering their schedule as previously mentioned, you can expect Petit to earn you 2-3 more wins. UPCOMING SERIES: @SDG (8/25-8/27), LAD (8/29-8/31) FLORIDA MARLINS Week: 3-3 L10: 4-6 Overall: 67-64, 3rd NL East The Marlins have 31 games remaining on their docket, but 16 are on the road, and nearly half are against the Mets and Phillies. At five games back, they still have the opportunity to make up ground but will have to win probably 20-25 games in this stretch to take the division, or at least 20 to take the Wild Card. It won't be easy. The Marlins were slightly relieved to see slumping Dan Uggla hit his 27th home run this week. Of course, they also witnessed Saturday's performance--0-for-3 with three whiffs and two errors. Whether it's fatigue, ankle problems, or something else, it's gotten ugly for the "Ugly Man." According to the Miami Herald, the arrival of Paul Lo Duca may spell less playing time for Matt Treanor. Lo Duca was involved in the tying and go ahead runs Saturday, and the insurance runs Sunday. He also provides the team with something they haven't had, a selfless hitter who exercises the fundamentals at the highest level in the number two spot. Lo Duca's a solid contact hitter and was due for an upward adjustment, seeing that his BABIP was hovering at .246. Monitor his playing time if you need a catcher. The Marlins have declared that former starter Andrew Miller will not be activated from the DL until the September 1 call-up. His injured knee is still tender, but his absence is also a reflection of Chris Volstad's and Anibal Sanchez's successful stints. Miller started his rehab stint in Single-A Jupiter and threw 60 pitches last week. UPCOMING SERIES: @ATL (8/26-8/28), NYM (8/29-8/31)  | | If you're desperate for power Dmitri Young may supply some down the stretch. Photo Credit: Icon SMI |
WASHINGTON NATIONALS Week: 2-4 L10: 2-8 Overall: 46-85, 5th NL East Dmitri Young has been cleared to resume baseball activities and could provide some power to a lineup decimated by injuries. Young, who has never been the poster child of health at 6'2" 298 pounds, is likely going to need some time to regain his strength and return to playing shape. However, the Nationals would love to see the return of 2007's Comeback Player of the Year instead of Aaron Boone at first base. If you are desperate enough to consider adding him to your bench (NL-only), keep in mind that you're praying for a late power surge and some RBIs. Young turns 35 this fall, although he is signed through 2009. He'll likely stay a National, even with the recent surge from Ronnie Belliard, who has found a new home at first base. Belliard's hot bat has him posting a .452 average over his last 18 games. He was recently put on waivers, and the Dodgers claimed him, but a deal has not yet been struck.
Expectations on Odalis Perez will likely drop as soon as the rosters expand, and you should expect to see the re-emergence of Garrett Mock and Tyler Clippard, both of whom were in the majors in June. Both have pitched well in the minors, with Mock posting 96 strikeouts in a 104 innings, with a very average 1.14 GO/AO ratio. Clippard has added 111 strikeouts in his 132 innings of work, but he has yielded 60 free passes. Both are likely call-ups in September. UPCOMING SERIES: LAD (8/26-8/28), ATL (8/29-8/31) BALTIMORE ORIOLES Week: 1-5 L10: 4-6 Overall: 61-68, 5th AL East It appears with George Sherrill on the perch, the O-birds will be using Jim Johnson to shut the door. Johnson should get a good amount of opportunities seeing as the Orioles are plating the most runs of any team in August. However, because Johnson's K/9 rating won't blow even a twig house down at a whopping 4.77, there's a possibility for some late auditioning in September. Dennis Sarfate, a Trembley favorite who has yet to find reticence as a starter or reliever, could climb into the closer's chair because of his 72 K in 69 IP. The knock against Sarfate is control, as he's also posted 55 walks, 41 of them as a reliever in just over 53 innings. You should pay attention to the recent call up of Kam Mickolio. In Triple-A Norfolk, he had 20 Ks in 18 IP and posted 40 K in just over 38 IP at Double-A Bowie. At 6'9", 255, he's a human howitzer, and is likely to get a shot at it come September. If successful, Mickolio spells C-L-O-S-E-R. Radhames Liz was recalled on Friday and started against the Yankees. He struck out four and only walked one, but yielded nine hits and three earned runs in only 4 2/3 innings. Liz is likely to remain as a starter for the rest of year. Since his demotion to Norfolk, he struck out 27 in 27 innings and had a 2.67 ERA. If you need pitching, he's a strikeout helper with upside. UPCOMING SERIES: CHW (8/25-8/27), @TAM (8/29-8/31) PITTSBURGH PIRATES Week: 2-4 L10: 2-8 Overall: 57-73, 5th NL Central The Pirates sent Steven Pearce south, but that should only last for one more week. The reason was simply to make room for Doug Mientkiewicz returning from bereavement leave. Mientkiewicz is posting a Bucco best .330 since the break and is still a defensive guru. He's been a solid guy for NL-only leagues, but as September approaches, sadly Mientkiewicz's age will go against him, and he might see more bench time. Andy LaRoche has already usurped the 3B position for the distant future, and Brandon Moss now fills the outfield with Nate McLouth and Pearce when he returns. So expect Mientkiewicz and even Jason Michaels to see less playing time as the Pirates begin searching for next year's team. Light-hitting speedster Nyjer Morgan is also in the outfield mix. Matt Capps was activated, allowing John Grabow to return to lefty specialist and Craig Hansen back to a possible set-up role. I wouldn't expect the Pirates to provide a lot of save opportunities, as the Bucs have managed only five runs or more in three of their last 11 games. That being said, if you have Capps, he's back in your lineup. Tom Gorzelanny returned, and unfortunately, his early season form returned with him. While allowing just four walks in 35 innings in Triple-A, Gorzo allowed three free passes in Saturday's game. He showed better command, but not enough to erase the memory of this season for fantasy owners. You shouldn't invest here just yet, but certainly monitor to see if his form returns. He's just 26 as of this past July. UPCOMING SERIES: CHC (8/25-8/27), MIL (8/29-8/31) TEXAS RANGERS Week: 1-5 L10: 2-8 Overall: 63-67, 2nd AL Central At 16 games behind the Angels, and 11.5 off the Wild Card pace, the Rangers are an afterthought in the playoff race. However, that doesn't mean they're going to stop stocking the ranch with cattle. With 31 remaining games, and three crucial series against the Angels for 10 of them, the Rangers could still cause a dust-up before it's all through. Fifteen of those games come against horrible teams with challenged starting pitching staffs like their own in Seattle, Oakland, and Kansas City. For fantasy purposes, you could see some nice numbers down the stretch. They also have three games with the Tigers 20th-ranked staff. Ian Kinsler may not elect to have surgery on his sports hernia now, but he'll almost certainly have to in the future. Rarely do these things heal, and if they do, it's because the player took a long rest. I wouldn't count on Kinsler the remainder of the season. As he has all season, super fill-in (and sometimes starter) Ramon Vazquez now moves to 2B, his fourth position of the year. At 32, there's not a lot of upside to him except that he's a solid utility man off your bench next season who can play three positions, hit for average, and score some runs. Of course, his value is directly related to the team he plays for, as the Rangers only have him signed for the year. UPCOMING SERIES: @KC (8/25-8/27), @LAA (8/28-8/31) TAMPA BAY RAYS Week: 4-2 L10: 7-3 Overall: 79-50, 1st AL East The Rays have 33 games remaining, 17 of which are on the road. Twenty-five of the games are against their own division, and the other eight games are against the Central Division-leading Twins and third-place Tigers. Rocco Baldelli has become a must-add in all AL-only leagues and a possibility now in mixed formats, because it's clear the former high-caliber outfielder won't just be spelling days off for the outfield. Baldelli clubbed two homers over the weekend, raising his average to .308. He'll play primarily against left-handers as a DH, a position where the Rays were particularly lacking. After four straight save conversions, Dan Wheeler was charged with a blown save, even though the final out was fumbled by catcher Shawn Riggans after a perfect throw by Ben Zobrist. With both Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria anticipating a return September 1, expect the Rays to make minimal changes to a team that has won eight of its last 11. Don't expect Maddon to abandon Wheeler over this one game either. He's the man until Troy Percival returns–-if he returns. UPCOMING SERIES: TOR (8/26-8/28), BAL (8/29-8/31) COLORADO ROCKIES Week: 4-2 L10: 7-3 Overall: 61-71, 3rd NL West Ah, to be Clint Hurdle, sitting there in your office mulling over starting Glendon Rusch or Livan Hernandez. At 11 games under .500 and nine off the division pace, it would seem that Hurdle is bound to turn his eyes south toward Colorado Springs for some answers. Hernandez has pitched a total of 12 1/3 innings in his three starts for the Rockies, leaving the manager in a conundrum. But you fantasy gurus, you were already aware Hernandez was going to collapse in thin-air Colorado like a 400-pound hot-dog eater with a heart condition. And with Jason Hirsh and Franklin Morales adding to the list of WHIP killers down in Triple-A, Hurdle might turn toward Double-A Modesto for answers but might not find any. All the pitching issues have led to speculation that the Rockies will move Matt Holliday or Garrett Atkins. The Denver Post is speculating that the idea of trading Atkins is gaining legs due to the lack of depth in the free agency market at third base and the fact that both the Twins and Angels could use a solid corner infielder, particularly if the Angles fail to keep Mark Teixeira. If it doesn't happen through the waiver trade, it will definitely happen in the off-season. All the talk of moving Brian Fuentes couldn't have done any favor to Manny Corpas' ego, but Fuentes will likely be gone at the end of the season, and Corpas could see more opportunities this September. Our own Jason Revelia covered Casey Weathers, another closing prospect Colorado has in Double-A. He's gone 40 innings, relinquishing only 30 hits, while striking out 48 with a nearly 2:1 G/F ratio. Another young prospect to keep an eye on is Jhoulys Chacin, a 20-year-old hurler from Venezuela. His combined A-ball stats show a record of 8-2 with a combined 2.03 ERA, 155 K, 41 BB in 175 2/3 IP. His GO/AO ratio is a ridiculous 2.85. With the season winding down, he's not likely to see any action beyond Single-A, but if the control continues, he'll be within striking distance in no time. UPCOMING SERIES: @SFO (8/25-8/27), @SDG (8/29-8/31) KANSAS CITY ROYALS Week: 1-5 L10: 2-8 Overall: 56-74, 5th AL Central The disappointment for fantasy owners varies when discussing Alex Gordon, but one thing we all agree on is that we expected more. In addition to the .254 average and 14 home runs, Gordon can add a stint on the DL to his list of achievements. Alberto Callaspo is his likely replacement, although he could also fill in at second, moving Esteban German over to the hot corner. Callaspo warrants consideration on your AL-only team if you need a live hitter. He added three hits Sunday in just his second game since coming off the DL. Gordon joins Luke Hochevar, Ron Mahay, and Mitch Maier, who was beaned in the face earlier this week, breaking three bones below his eye. Hochevar is officially done for the season. Kyle Davis has already been recalled to replace Mahay. Davis had a stint earlier this summer in which he started 14 games and delivered a 4.71 ERA in 66 2/3 innings, giving up 87 hits. Brandon Duckworth was also moved up and started Sunday against Detroit, garnering a rare win for the Royals. He didn't strike out a single batter, though, and relinquished more hits than innings, so his time may be limited to spot starts. In case you thought about it, don't. Duckworth is not a solid replacement for Hochevar. Neither is Kip Wells, who was brought up from the Royals' Omaha farm team after signing with them a few weeks ago when the Rockies released him. UPCOMING SERIES: TEX (8/25-8/27), @DET (8/29-8/31) MINNESOTA TWINS Week: 4-3 L10: 7-3 Overall: 74-56, 2nd AL Central The Twins are in a serious fight for the division and wild card due to the strength of AL East. Unfortunately, the Twins face the toughest schedule of the small market contenders, with 22 of their remaining 34 games on the road. However, the positive spin is that the collective record of the teams they face is under .500, and only Toronto and Tampa Bay have marks over .500. As of Sunday, the Twins have a road record of 28-33. Kevin Slowey has had the hot hand lately, going 3-0 in his last three starts (before Sunday's close loss to the Angels), adding a career-high 12 strikeouts in his last start Tuesday night. The good news for the Twins is they can put the light-hitting Adam Everett on the bench if they need to, because Alexi Casilla is back. If you haven't discovered Casilla, get out your compass and map, and look ahead for this journey. He's a keeper candidate, even though he doesn't display a lot of pop in his bat and currently sports a nearly 2:1 G/F ratio. However, since his call-up in June, he has yet to bat under .300 for a month, displaying rare consistency for someone his age (24). Add to that his amazing contact rate of nearly 90 percent, attributable to his low strikeout count of 27 in 257 at-bats, and you have a guy who'll get on base a lot, score a lot, and potentially add 20 stolen bases. What you'd like to see is Casilla take more walks, but imagine a lineup that contains the speed of Carlos Gomez, Denard Span, and Casilla, combined with the offensive skills of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Delmon Young. You may not see the ball leave the park a lot, but this offense will continue to manufacture runs for some time. UPCOMING SERIES: @SEA (8/25-8/27), @OAK (8/28-8/31) ***STATISTICS FROM THE WEEK OF 8/17 - 8/24 Jonathan Phillips loves to hear from his readers-–all 20 million of them–-honestly. So please, feel free to send questions or comments to
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