One man’s loss is another man’s gain as Paul Bourdett explains the power of 10. Ten saves. Last season, there were 36 pitchers in major league baseball with at least that many. As of Wednesday, there are 31 who have reached the milestone in 2008. By the end of September, we could be looking at 40 players joining the club. I know, I know. Ten saves, big whoopee. But what it represents is so much more than just a number. In fact, it happens to be the difference between first and fourth place in one of the leagues I play in. I’ve seen people suggest that you punt the category if you’re down by 10 saves heading into September, and personally, I just think that’s bad advice. Why? Because if you’re into finishing what you start (and if you play fantasy sports, I hope you are), and you’ve got an outside shot at contending for a championship, making up that difference may be your only hope. Sure, you'll need a little bit of luck, but 10 saves is NOT an insurmountable lead. There's always the possibility that the team you’re chasing loses a closer to injury (see Billy Wagner, George Sherrill) or trade (Eddie Guardado), or the real-life teams their closers play for fail to provide save opportunities. And you never know; perhaps one of your stoppers decides to go on a binge (Jensen Lewis anyone?)--stranger things have happened. It’s a completely realistic outlook; it’s not like you’re hoping your team hits .500 in the month of September. This past week, we’ve seen a couple of potential closers emerge, and another gain a leg up on teammates in the battle for saves. These same players are also available in a good number of leagues. If you’re in need, take a chance and see what happens. Even if chasing saves fails to take a bite-size chunk out of your opponent’s lead, at least you'll go down swinging. One more thing. Let’s forget about who's "On the Fence" or "On the Ledge" from here on out. Regardless of a closer's long-term outlook, if they're saving games today, they're worth having on your team. Of course, I've noted where other options or question marks exist in each team's bullpen, but labeling closers as secure in their job, or not, serves only to cloud the situation. With only one month left, I'll assume you'll take closers wherever you can get them, even when their situation is a temporary one. Stats as of August 26, 2008 "Closer-by-Committees" New York Mets Bullpen
I was alone on an island last week when I suggested that Luis Ayala had a realistic shot at becoming the Mets interim closer. I'm not sure why nobody else gave him a chance; maybe it’s because I've actually seen Aaron Heilman pitch for the past few years. So what happens? Ayala enters Tuesday night's game against the Phillies (huge spot), and proceeds to blow the one-run lead. To be honest, I'm not sure who to own in the Mets bullpen--they’ve blown 23 saves this season. My guess is that Ayala and Heilman share the job the rest of the way, so if you're desperate and one or both are available, it can't hurt to roster either of them (unless "blown saves" is a category in your league). Baltimore Orioles Bullpen
It looks like Jim Johnson is first in line for Orioles’ saves, but with the team losing four in a row, I haven't seen anything to confirm it. My guess is that he’ll close as long as he can succeed. If he can’t, I think Fernando Cabrera is next in line. "On Board" Mariano Rivera, NYY
The Yanks may be down for the count, but don't count out Mariano. He’ll be just fine, even if he does miss facing Manny Ramirez.
31-for-32, 58.2 IP, 67 Ks, 1.53 ERA, 0.72 WHIP
Next in line: Edwar Ramírez
Third in line: Jose Veras Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
Papelbon’s a horse. One day after pitching two scoreless innings against Toronto, he went 1.1 scoreless innings against the Yankees to pick up his 34th save of the season.
34-for-38, 58 IP, 65 Ks, 1.71 ERA, 0.81 WHIP
Next in line: Justin Masterson
Third in line: Manny Delcarmen  | | Joe Nathan has been the ultimate dominator this season. Photo Credit: Icon SMI |
Joe Nathan, MIN
Francisco Rodriguez is well on his way to shattering the single-season saves record, but I’d argue that Nathan has been the most dominant closer in baseball this year.
35-for-38, 56 IP, 62 Ks, 1.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP
Next in line: Eddie Guardado
Third in line: Matt Guerrier Brad Lidge, PHI
Lidge still hasn’t blown a save in 2008.
31-for-31, 54.1 IP, 72 Ks, 1.99 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Next in line: Chad Durbin
Third in line: Ryan Madson Francisco Rodríguez, LAA
50 saves down, seven to go.
50-for-55, 55.1 IP, 62 Ks, 2.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Next in line: Jose Arredondo
Third in line: Scot Shields Francisco Cordero, CIN
Despite Cordero’s 8.16 ERA since the All-Star break, he’s in no danger of losing his job.
25-for-31, 57.1 IP, 65 Ks, 3.77 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Next in line: David Weathers
Third in line: Jeremy Affeldt José Valverde, HOU
Valverde’s 80 saves since the beginning of 2007 put him second among all big league closers during that time (K-Rod is first with 90).
33-for-39, 58.1 IP, 64 Ks, 4.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Next in line: Doug Brocail
Third in line: Geoff Geary Joakim Soria, KC
Don’t hate on the “Mexicutioner,” embrace him.
33-for-36, 56 IP, 58 Ks, 1.93 ERA, 0.88 WHIP
Next in line: Ron Mahay
Third in line: Robinson Tejeda Bobby Jenks, CWS
Jenks is pretty hard on himself, but that’s what you want to see out of your closer.
26-for-30, 48.1 IP, 27 Ks, 1.68 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Next in line: Octavio Dotel
Third in line: Matt Thornton Kevin Gregg, FLA
Kevin Gregg’s eighth blown save of the season was a doozy -- he gave up five hits and four runs against the Braves on Tuesday night. Still, he’s secure in his status as the Marlins’ closer. Play with confidence.
29-for-37, 61.1 IP, 52 Ks, 3.26 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Next in line: Matt Lindstrom
Third in line: Renyel Pinto Salomón Torres, MIL
Here’s an interesting comparison of the Brewers’ closer situation last season (Francisco Cordero), and this season (Torres). I’ll take it a step further and say Torres has been the better closer of the two in 2008.
25-for-31, 66.1 IP, 44 Ks, 2.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Next in line: Eric Gagne
Third in line: Guillermo Mota Trevor Hoffman, SD
For Hoffman, saves have been hard to come by over the past few weeks. He’s been pitching well, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him reel off a couple of four-save weeks before it’s all said and done.
26-for-29, 38.1 IP, 41 Ks, 4.23 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Next in line: Heath Bell
Third in line: Cla Meredith B.J. Ryan, TOR
Ryan has a 2.35 ERA since the All-Star break and has only one blown save since June 5.
25-for-28, 47 IP, 45 Ks, 2.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Next in line: Scott Downs
Third in line: Jesse Carlson Brian Wilson, SF
Congratulations to the owners who’ve had Wilson on their roster since the beginning of the season. It was a HUGE leap of faith, but it’s certainly paid off. He’s even gotten better with time (2.93 ERA, 10 saves since the break).
35-for-38, 52.2 IP, 58 Ks, 4.10 ERA, 1.37 WHIP
Next in line: Tyler Walker
Third in line: Keiichi Yabu Jonathan Broxton, LAD
I’ve been saying it for a few weeks now, and I’m shocked that no one else has, but something is wrong with Broxton. He complained of a tired arm three weeks ago, and hasn’t been the same since (2 BS, 2 L, 6.75 ERA). That said, Joe Torre is still throwing him out there, so you have to ride him. Just be prepared to pounce on Hong-Chih Kuo the minute you hear anything injury-related.
10-for-17, 55.2 IP, 69 Ks, 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Next in line: Hong-Chih Kuo
Third in line: Joe Beimel Joel Hanrahan, WAS
Work has been sporadic for Hanrahan, mostly due to the Nationals’ 12-game losing streak.
5-for-7, 74.2 IP, 80 Ks, 3.67 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Next in line: Saul Rivera
Third in line: Steven Shell Kerry Wood, CHI (NL)
The knock on Wood, throughout his career, has been his health. If you’re hoping he stays healthy the rest of the season, knock on wood.
26-for-31, 53.2 IP, 66 Ks, 2.68 ERA, 1.02 WHIP
Next in line: Carlos Mármol
Third in line: Jeff Samardzija Chris Pérez, STL
Pérez is a perfect 5-for-5 in saves, with 8.1 scoreless innings since the beginning of August.
5-for-7, 32 IP, 31 Ks, 3.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Next in line: Kyle McClellan
Third in line: Ryan Franklin Fernando Rodney, DET
Rodney’s been a K-machine, striking out 17 batters over his last 11 innings. He’s also saved five straight, cementing his status as the Tigers full-time closer in 2008, and possibly beyond.
Next in line: Kyle Farnsworth
Third in line: Aquilino López Dan Wheeler, TB
Wheeler blew the save this past Sunday, his first blown save since Troy Percival went on the DL in mid-August. Hold onto him, because he’s still their go-to-guy in save situations. He’s also still worth keeping if/when Percival returns (see below).
8-for-10, 56 IP, 41 Ks, 2.57 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Next in line: Grant Balfour
Third in line: Chad Bradford Jensen Lewis, CLE
Jensen’s six saves in the past two weeks are a perfect example of why not to punt the category if you’re within ten of moving up.
7-for-8, 52.1 IP, 39 Ks, 3.78 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
Next in line: Rafael Pérez
Third in line: Masa Kobayashi Matt Capps, PIT
17-for-22, 41.1 IP, 29 Ks, 3.04 ERA, 1.04 WHIP
Matt Capps hasn't seen a save opportunity since coming off the DL, but I can't envision a scenario in which he won’t close games down the stretch. John Grabow may still garner a save or two the rest of the way, but if Capps remains healthy, the team has about 3.1 million reasons to keep him in the role for good. He is coming off an injury, so if you own Capps, and Grabow is available, you’d be wise to go with the “handcuff” approach here…if you’re still in contention for saves, that is.
Next in line: John Grabow
Third in line: Tyler Yates Mike González, ATL
González hasn’t blown a save since 2004. The fact that he only has 36 saves since then (and only six since mid-June) tells you something else altogether. Regardless, he’s Atlanta’s guy for the rest of this year and should be good for at least a handful of saves…right?
6-for-6, 20.1 IP, 21 Ks, 3.54 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
Next in line: Blaine Boyer
Third in line: Jeff Bennett Frank Francisco, TEX
I hinted at Francisco possibly getting a chance to close a few weeks ago, but I don’t think anybody saw Eddie Guardado going to the Twins this late in the season. He hasn’t had a chance to prove his worth just yet, but he’s definitely got the stuff to succeed (65 Ks in only 52.1 IP). Whether he has the mental makeup to become a good closer is still up in the air, but you should definitely take a flier on him if you need saves and he’s available.
0-for-6, 52.1 IP, 65 Ks, 3.78 ERA,1.24 WHIP
Next in line: Joaquín Benoit
Third in line: Jamey Wright Brian Fuentes, COL
Fuentes is currently on the bereavement list, but he’s officially been placed on waivers. There’s a good chance he gets traded within the next day or so, because there are plenty of teams who could use his help down the stretch. As a Fuentes owner, you have no choice but to hold onto him, but it would be wise to acquire Manny Corpas, or even Frank Francisco or Jensen Lewis, as insurance if they’re still out there.
26-for-30, 52.2 IP, 64 Ks, 2.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Next in line: Manny Corpas
Third in line: Taylor Buchholz Brad Ziegler, OAK
Ziegler should still be in the mix, but it appears that manager Bob Geren is looking to give Joey Devine a tryout over the last month or so. Just another option to consider if you’re crying for help.
5-for-5, 45 IP, 21 Ks, 0.40 ERA, 0.96 WHIP
Next in line: Joey Devine
Third in line: Santiago Casilla J.J. Putz, SEA
Ryan Corcoran??? Relax. Putz just needed a night off. That said, it appears Corcoran has leapfrogged Mark Lowe and Sean Green as next in line. Just something to keep in your back pocket.
9-for-16, 36 IP, 40 Ks, 4.00 ERA, 1.81 WHIP
Next in line: Ryan Corcoran
Third in line: Mark Lowe Brandon Lyon, ARI
The most interesting thing about Bob Melvin’s comments was the suggestion that Tony Peña could be the D’backs next option at closer. Well, Jon Rauch has struggled since coming over in the trade (0-3, 6.19 ERA, one earned run allowed in each of his last five appearances), and I’ve also always believed Peña had the best stuff in the D’back’s pen. But with their season on the line, I have to think Melvin will go with the guy who has more experience in the role should Lyon fall out of favor. Monitor the performance of all three, and be ready to make a move should something drastic occur.
25-for-30, 49 IP, 36 Ks, 4.96 ERA, 1.49 WHIP
Next in line: Jon Rauch
Third in line: Tony Peña “On the Shelf” Billy Wagner, NYM
The Mets say it’ll be at least two to three weeks until we see Billy Wagner pitching again. I’m not as optimistic. I’ve heard nothing positive or negative in the last week or so, but no news, at least for me, always means bad news. Plan accordingly.
27-for-33, 46 IP, 50 Ks, 1.96 ERA, 0.83 WHIP Todd Jones, DET
Jones has been slow to recover from a bum shoulder, so I wouldn’t expect him back until at least mid-September. It’s meaningless really, because I think Rodney will keep the gig even if Jones returns.
18-for-21, 41.2 IP, 14 Ks, 4.97 ERA, 1.63 WHIP George Sherrill, BAL
Sherrill has been playing catch recently and hopes to be back in about a week. If you own him, hold steady. If you own Jim Johnson, stay apprised of the situation.
31-for-37, 50.1 IP, 54 Ks, 4.47 ERA, 1.49 WHIP Troy Percival, TB
Barring a setback, Percival should be back with the Rays this weekend. He’ll probably immediately take back the closer’s role, followed by immediately getting hurt again. If you own him, you have to play him. Just prepare for the worst when it comes to his durability.
27-for-30, 39 IP, 36 Ks, 3.69 ERA, 1.03 WHIP Got a question or comment? Send Paul an email at
This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
and he’ll be happy to discuss.
 |
Baseball 
Subscribe to this comment's feed
