Summertime is coming to an end, friends.  The Olympics have come and gone, and school is back in session.  Although that may mean something to many of you, there are plenty of us who no longer have any concept of what that means. Hey, great, school is back!  Let's all round up our pencils, books, protractors, and naughty looks.  We all have those school-day memories of daydreaming about one day becoming the mother lode of fantasy writers or a fool's gold of a financial analyst.  The former occupation is usually done at twilight, with the latter being a daytime destiny.      

We’ve appreciated the opportunity to help people along the way this season, whether it's the young man from Idaho who asked us about Phil Hughes early in the season, or the single mother in Vermont whose child wanted to know whether Ricky Nolasco was the mother lode.  "Mother Lode"..."Fool's Gold"... that's all rhetoric they don't teach you in school.  But if you are trying to school your opponents in the fantasy realm, you've come to the right place.  This school is always in session, and our faculty has a proven track record, without pencils or protractors-- just good old-fashioned fantasy analysis.  No, not the kind of "fantasy" analysis you had in mind in junior high.  Get your minds out of the gutter and read the column. 

The beard is gone but Rocco is back. Consider him a must start against LH pitching. Photo Credit Icon SMI

ROCCO BALDELLI, OF, TB

It's hard to believe that Rocco Baldelli is still only 26.  It seems like he's been around forever. This is especially true since he has become the poster child for talented young players who just can't stay healthy.  In 2005, Baldelli played ZERO games in the big leagues, and after miraculously playing in 92 games in 2006, he really set himself back again by only playing in 35 injury-plagued games in 2007.  He was one of the foundation pieces for the young Tampa Bay Rays, until he showed that he just couldn't stay healthy.  This season he’s made a late season comeback--of sorts--for the first-place Rays, who are already experiencing significant injuries to key players.  In his first eight games this season, Baldelli has shown why the Rays have been so patient with him.  He’s hitting well and has played even better defense in the outfield.  But it's offense that counts in fantasy baseball.  So, at this point in the season, is Baldelli's .267 BA and two HRs in his first 10 games something to stop and consider when you're scouring the waiver wires?  Matt and Tom, what do you guys think about Mr. Baldelli?  Are those gold chains around his neck mother lode or just plain fool's gold?   

Stats (through August 27th):  AB: 30  H: 8  R: 3  HR: 2  RBI: 4  BB: 2  SB: 0  AVG: .267

Tom:  True story -- I had a little league coach named Rocco Baldelli.  He was a great fundamentals guy and a good coach, but not injury prone at all.  Tampa's Rocco Baldelli is quite the opposite, at least in terms of being prone to injuries.  He's a terrific fundamental baseball player, but he hasn't shown that he can stay healthy long enough to make a significant impact.  I mean, the Rays were so unsure about his future that they declined his 2009 option. The scariest thing is that this past off-season, doctors never really even stated exactly what was wrong with Baldelli.  It's worrisome, because you have to start thinking that he is turning into a likable version of Carl Pavano.  Any time you associate someone with Pavano, you have to just shake your head and move on, right?  Well, I was a fan of Baldelli and once bought into the idea that he would get this thing turned around.  The best thing about his emergence this year is that the Rays need him more now than ever with these key injuries.  I would like to think he can remain at this level for the rest of the year, and if he does, he’s a game changer.  At this point of the season, if you need an outfielder with a little pop in his bat and a .282 career batting average, then you have to take a shot with Baldelli if he’s available.  Take a chance on Baldelli, because when healthy, he is the Mother Lode!         

Matt:  Rocco Baldelli deserves better than the hand he has been dealt the past few years.  Baldelli was the guy, along with Carl Crawford and Josh Hamilton, who was going to anchor Tampa Bay's outfield for the next 10 years.  But as the injuries mount, the luster on Baldelli's career has faded.  As we wind down the 2008 season, Baldelli has returned from his latest injury and will once again attempt to stay healthy and be a productive member of the Rays' lineup.  How good can Baldelli be?  If he were to get 600 at-bats, he could easily hit .290 with 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases.  Unfortunately, fantasy owners don't win their league by having guys on their team whose bodies can't endure a 162-game schedule.  Since his August 10 return,  Baldelli has gotten 27 at-bats and is hitting .296 with two home runs and four RBI.  He has also struck out six times while walking only twice.  The one thing that concerns me about Baldelli is his playing time.  Do the Rays need to push Baldelli at this point?  I think not.  Baldelli is only 26, but his body seems much older. Knee surgery, elbow surgery, and recurring hamstring problems have taken their toll.  It pains me to say this, but I don't have a lot of confidence that Baldelli will ever provide fantasy owners with the kind of production predicted back in 2003.  Don't let Baldelli hurt your championship chances. Stay away from this Fool's Gold!

ANTHONY REYES, SP/RP, CLE

In sports, sometimes all it takes is a change of venue.  A guy struggles and then gets traded when his value is lower than anyone could ever imagine, and, poof, he miraculously finds his stride and succeeds in his new uniform.  Is this the case for Anthony Reyes?  The once promising young "ace" for the St. Louis Cardinals never found his comfort zone.  After going 2-14 with a 6.04 ERA for the Cardinals last season, it seemed as if the Cardinals got tired of waiting.  Pitching Coach Dave Duncan and Manager Tony LaRussa were not very happy with Reyes, so the Cardinals sent him to the Cleveland Indians for relief pitcher Luis Perdomo.  How the mighty had fallen. The once highly touted pitching prospect was now considered only as valuable as a 24-year-old Double-A reliever.  But the story does not end there, friends.  As a starter for the Indians, Reyes has been superb.  In his first four starts he has pitched 24.1 innings, with a 2-1 record and a 2.22 ERA.  Sometimes it does pay to get out of a bad situation.  Is this the case for Reyes?  Is he still considered a serviceable starter in this league?  Matt and Tom discuss and solve this quandary for you. 

Stats (through August 27th):  IP: 39.0  W: 4  K: 21  BB: 13  WHIP:  1.33  ERA: 3.23

Tom:  I hate reading stories about a young player and the coaching staff not getting along, especially when the player we're talking about just came off a 2-14 season.  The first thing that came to my mind was, "Really bro?  Really?"  Reyes has pitched well since being traded to the Indians.  That's a fact.  So, I am going to do my best not to use my heart in this situation and give Reyes the old fool's gold tag without making a case.  He is/was a talented pitcher.  And maybe Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa are wrong here.  Maybe Reyes is right.  I mean, Dave Duncan has only coached four Cy Young winners in his time and most recently has coached Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, Joel Piniero, Todd Wellemeyer, and Adam Wainwright into contention in the NL Central.  Aside from Wainwright, not one of those guys was consistently considered a big league starter over the past two or three seasons.  We've talked about how well Reyes has pitched as an Indian, but his starts came against Toronto, Baltimore, Kansas City, and Texas--three out of four of those teams are capable of being shut down on any given night--and his K/BB is 11/10.  I'm not very impressed by his Cleveland days so far.  As far as I'm concerned, I'll pass on Reyes.  I'm with Dave Duncan, he's Fool's Gold.     

Matt:  If you are a glass half-empty kind of guy, you would look at Anthony Reyes and see a guy who never took advantage of the chance he was given in St. Louis. You’ll think he will never be anything more than a back-of-the-rotation starter, or strictly a long-relief guy.  On the other hand, if you're a glass half-full kind of guy, you see a guy who was never given an opportunity to succeed, and an organization who jerked Reyes around, and never allowed him to grow, or be successful.  Reyes was the 2007 poster boy for pitchers who don't get run support.  On his way to a 2-14 record last season, he received only eight runs in his first seven starts.  Total.  It's hard to win games when your offense is only giving you a little over one run per game to work with.  After starting the year with St. Louis, Reyes shuffled up and down to the minors.  The Cardinals finally decided that they were done with Reyes, and traded him to Cleveland for minor league pitcher Luis Perdomo.  Since joining the Indians, Reyes has pitched very well, but is he pitching better because of the change of scenery, or does he realize that this is his last chance at a major league career?  Regardless, this season Reyes is auditioning for a spot in the Indians' rotation next year, and that should be enough to keep him motivated.  Take advantage of that motivation, and pick up Reyes.  He's looking like the Mother Lode!

ANIBAL SANCHEZ, SP, FLA

Anibal Sanchez came over from Boston in the Josh Beckett trade before the 2006 season.  You may have heard of one of the other players included in the deal--Hanley Ramirez--but Sanchez had a very good minor league career, and had he not been traded, he would have made his major league debut in 2006 with the Red Sox instead of the Marlins.  In fact, his rookie year was quite impressive. He went 10-3 with a 2.83 ERA and a stingy 1.19 WHIP, while striking out 72 batters in 114.1 innings.  However, 2007 was a completely different story. Sanchez pitched only 30 innings, going 2-1 with a 4.80 ERA and a very unimpressive 2.07 WHIP, while walking 19 batters against only 14 strikeouts.  Sanchez was first sent to the minors, but it was soon determined he had a torn labrum, which ended his season.  Sanchez is no stranger to surgery. He had elbow surgery before the 2003 season.  So what can we expect from Sanchez in these final 30 games of the season?  I know Matt and Tom have an opinion they’d like to share.

Stats (through August 27th):  IP: 29.1  W: 2  K: 27  BB: 13  WHIP: 1.40  ERA: 3.99

Matt:  Sanchez definitely has some upside.  He has three good pitches, including a fastball that tops out in the mid-90s, a curveball, and a changeup.  Another positive is that he pitches in spacious Dolphin Stadium.  However, none of that does Sanchez, the Marlins, or your fantasy team any good when he’s on the disabled list. Unfortunately, he’s been on the disabled list more than he’s pitched the past two years.  After starting 17 games in 2006, he’s only started 11 total in 2007-2008 due to shoulder surgery, and the Marlins are keeping Sanchez on a fairly strict pitch count. In his five starts since returning, he is averaging fewer than six innings per start, which further limits his value.  If you plan on picking him up, I would recommend only starting him at home.  His lifetime ERA is a full point lower at home, and his home record is 10-2 vs. 4-4 on the road.  However, I would let Sanchez languish on your waiver wire, because this Marlin is no game fish, he’s Fool’s Gold!

Tom:  Ah yes, I remember exactly where I was when Anibal Sanchez threw his no-hitter in 2006.  I was at a celebration for a fairly reputable sports blog, and everyone in the bar went wild over the emergence of Sanchez.  He was the talk of the town.  Well, that was certainly a one-time affair.  Injured for most of 2007 and 2008 season, Sanchez is not the same pitcher who was celebrated for that one September night in 2006.  He's no more than a middle-of-the-rotation guy.  He's a fifth starter on his own team and a replaceable piece.  He has a nice strikeout rate, but that's about all you get when you take a flier on Sanchez.  In my opinion, he might be better suited for the bullpen. I don't know much about his mental makeup, but it's possible that Sanchez is a long-reliever, or closer, in the making.  I'm not generally so quick to count out a young pitcher, but Sanchez rarely gives you six innings.  In his five starts this season, he has thrown six innings or more only twice.  He's getting a look in most leagues because of his strikeout capability, but he also has a .250 BAA.  I'm just not sure he's a six-inning pitcher, and when you start talking about a guy like that, then you might see some changes.  The bullpen may be in his future, which means he shouldn't be in your immediate future.  Pass on Sanchez, because he's Fool's Gold.

ANDREW MCCUTCHEON, OF, PIT

Andrew McCutcheon is the Pirates top prospect. He’s on the short list of the best major league-ready position players still in the minors.  McCutcheon is 21 years old (he won't turn 22 until October 10th), has shown a good power stroke in the minors, has excellent speed, and plays a very good defensive center field.  So far this season in Triple-A Indianapolis, McCutcheon has hit .276 with 9 home runs and 40 RBI, while stealing 26 bases in 391 at-bats.  There is a very good chance the Pirates will call up McCutcheon this September, just to give him a taste of the majors.  Once he is promoted, look for McCutcheon to bat leadoff for the Pirates and remain a fixture in the outfield.  Because McCutcheon is a natural center fielder, and the Pirates already have Nate McLouth patrolling there, either McCutcheon or McLouth will move to one of the corner spots in 2009.  So once he does get called up, what kind of Pirate’s gold will we find?  The Mother Lode or Fool’s Gold?  Matt and Tom, what’s the verdict?

Stats:  Not Currently in the Majors.

Matt:  The Pirates have allowed McCutcheon to progress through the minors without giving into the temptation to rush him to the majors.  However, McCutcheon now has very little to prove at the minor league level, and he’s ready for the major leagues.  There isn’t much time left this season for individual players to make a major impact on your fantasy fortunes, but McCutcheon could give you a boost.  He is a stolen base threat, and assuming he bats leadoff, he should get plenty of opportunities to run.  If you are in a tight race in stolen bases, he could mean an extra point or two for your team.  So what’s the long-term prognosis for McCutcheon?  I know you dynasty league owners want to know.  Well, it’s simple.  He’s going to become an All-Star-caliber player.  When his free agency year approaches, the Pirates will trade him to a big-market team for a couple of minor league prospects and some beads.  All cynicism aside, as soon as McCutcheon gets called up, don't hesitate to pick him up, especially if you are in a keeper or dynasty league.  This Pirate's gold is most assuredly the Mother Lode!

Tom:  It's September and that means--September call-ups!  How fitting.  McCutcheon is the future of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Plain and simple.  I talked about one key aspect in young players when analyzing David Price--risk vs. reward.  I have a much harder time trusting young pitchers in September than I do young hitters.  If a pitcher has two or three consecutive bad outings, you’re less likely to make up that deficiency than you would with a young hitter who has an 0-for-8 streak.  McCutcheon is one of the best, if not the best, hitting prospects in Pittsburgh's farm system, so I’m willing to take a chance on him. His track record proves that he is ready for the bigs.  He’s still only 21, but he is a great gap hitter and a great all-around athlete, and he’ll be coming into a relatively stress-free environment in Pittsburgh.  The future of the Pirates outfield lies with Brandon Moss, Nate McLouth, and McCutcheon.  We're going to get a good look at McCutcheon in September, and you’re going to love this Mother Lode outfielder, who’s ready to make an immediate impact.          
 

Think Matt and Tom have gone too far in calling your homegrown talent "Fool's Gold?"  Well, let them know where you stand.  You can contact Matt at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and give Tom a piece of your mind at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed