Matt:  Tom and I would like to say thanks to all our readers for spending a little piece of their Saturdays with us over the past five months.  We know you have a lot of options to consider when surfing for fantasy baseball advice, so we’re glad you caught a breaker over to RotoExperts and “Mother Lode or Fool’s Gold.”  Yes, this is our final column for this baseball season, but we’ll be back dispensing advice for the upcoming NBA season.  We thought we’d wrap up the 2008 baseball coverage with a little bragging, and a little humble pie.  We’ll revisit our three biggest “Mother Lode” hits, and our biggest miss.  Hey, nobody’s perfect, right?  Don’t worry, this column won’t just be a trip down memory lane. We’ve still got some advice for your stretch run, or your playoffs, depending on your format.  Also, we’ll dust off our crystal ball, and call our shots on two players to watch in 2009 and two players to avoid.  We are not completely abandoning you, though. If you have a question, don’t hesitate to drop us an e-mail, and we’ll get back to you with the great analysis you’ve come to expect.  Hey, Tom, do you have anything to add before we dive into the analysis?

Tom:  Yeah, Matt.  I just wanted to say it's been a blast working with you, and I appreciate all the kind words we've gotten from readers along the way.  Also, I think I've won the season match-up!  Let's have a look!

Xavier is setting career highs for at bats, runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI and batting average. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

This is probably my favorite part about doing the column - being able to pat ourselves on the back when we make good calls every now and then.  First off, I have to give myself credit on the Mother Lode call I gave to Xavier Nady in Week One.  It was early in the season and quite easy to cast a Fool's Gold on a guy, who in many folk's minds, had been a disappointment.  But he's finishing strong. With the Yankees, he is currently posting a .321 average, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 66 R, and 148 hits.  This is even more impressive for a guy who didn't get drafted in a number of leagues.  Hats off to me!  Another call I got right was the Fool's Gold label I tagged on Reds outfielder Jay Bruce after his first 10 games.  Everyone went absolutely nuts over his hot start, and we saw some All-Star-caliber players get traded for a guy with very little MLB experience.  Now Bruce is hitting .257 and has an OBP of .307.  He is still showing his inexperience and is not ready to produce every day.  He's hype, for sure, but he is still young and isn't quite the next Mickey Mantle.  Finally, I have to give myself credit for the Mother Lode Cliff Lee call in Week two.  Right now he is 20-2 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.  I made this call after the second week, when some Indians fans were not even sold on Lee. Those were some of my better calls along the way. 

Of course, where there is good, there is bad -- and I mean very bad!  Can you believe I told you not to count on CC Sabathia after his first 11 starts?  Yikes!  I lost big time on that one.  Of course, in my defense, he had only three wins after his first 11 starts and was posting a 4.74 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.  You all know how this one turned out. He's one of the leading NL Cy Young candidates.  He pitched 241.0 innings last season!  He was overused!  OK, moving on; my next missed call came when I gave young Padres pitcher Josh Banks the old Mother Lode label.  I must have been in a really good mood that week or something.  At the time, Banks was 2-0 in three starts and had not let up a run in his first 17.0 IP.  He was bound to keep up that pace!  Well, he now sits at 3-6 on the year with a 4.75 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and a batting average against that is not pretty -- .288.  Not to mention that he is only striking out 4.54 batters per nine innings pitched.  Sorry!  Finally, I got my butt kicked on this one, too, calling Carlos Gonzalez of the A's the next big thing.  I made it seem like he was this year's Ryan Braun.  Well, he wasn't even close. He is hitting .240 with only 4 HR and 23 RBI.  He's a "wait 'til next year" guy.  I can see him as a future star, but I led you astray by making him a "now" player with my Mother Lode label.  And for that, I am deeply sorry.         

For the rest of 2008, there are two guys I would take a long look at.  First, Max Scherzer of the Arizona Diamondbacks has been called up again and is currently pitching out of the bullpen.  If an injury were to occur in their starting rotation, or Brandon Lyon shows that he's not fit to close, there is a ton of value in Scherzer.  He is a power strikeout pitcher and could be a big-time starting pitcher next year.  Keep an eye on how the D-Backs use him, because his arm is full of value and you would love to have it on your squad.

Another guy I am keeping my eyes on is young Orioles outfielder Adam Jones. Jones recently came off the 15-day DL and should have some good impact along the way.  He is widely available in most leagues and since he plays for a "future" team, he'll get ABs as the Orioles figure out what they have for next year. 

Since we’re already trying to figure out next year, let’s look at a couple of players whose fortunes should reverse in 2009.  Let’s start with Jimmy Rollins – the 2007 NL MVP was a top-10 pick in 2008, but he has struggled all year. I like his SB production (38), but not much else in terms of fantasy production.  However, next year he should bounce back.  He's probably going to be rated somewhere in the high-20s to low-30s, which makes him a terrific value pick for next year. If possible, grab him in the third, or dare I say fourth, round, because I expect him to play better. 

On the flip side, one guy I am looking to avoid in 2009 is probable AL Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee.  After praising him all year, he's still not what I consider a top-20 kind of guy. Heck, I don't think he's even a top-10 pitcher for next year. I wouldn't pick him as my team's ace, but he's going to be highly sought after. You should pass on him. I can think of plenty of guys I'd be more comfortable going after in next year’s draft, and none of them are Cliff Lee. 

Matt:  Well, I’m going to throw out a big mea culpa right away.  What was I thinking back in April?  I predicted Justin Upton would hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs, bat .300, and steal 20 bases.  Wow, was I off on that one.  Can I get a mulligan?  Yes, he missed seven weeks, but he was stinking up the joint long before any injury.  He's currently batting .244 with 11 HR, 31 RBI, and one measly SB.  Heck, Prince Fielder has two stolen bases!  Upton just turned 21 a few weeks ago, and apparently he wasn’t quite ready for the majors.  I will just roll over my predictions for Upton to 2009 and cross my fingers.  Another miss was the previously mentioned Jay Bruce.  I told you to jump on him, and he certainly cooled off quickly.  He’s still a player you need to monitor in 2009.  Finally, one more: Mr. Armando Galarraga.  Back in June, I labeled him Fool’s Gold, and for good reason.  He was coming off a bad May, Detroit had already faded, and it looked like everything had lined up for a poor 2009.  Instead of an ERA around 4.00, as I predicted, Galarraga is sitting on a 3.17 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP, 12 wins, and 108 strikeouts.  Pretty solid numbers for a waiver wire grab.

Here are some players I did peg accurately.  The first is Matt Kemp, who we discussed back in May.  At the time, I labeled him the Mother Lode and predicted a .300 batting average with 20 HR and 20 SB.  So how is he doing?  He’s at .289 with 16 HR and 32 SB.  Unless he goes on a tear, he won’t see .300 this year, but he’s already surpassed the 20 SB, and has a good shot at 20 HR.  He’s definitely one to bump up your lists for 2009.  Also back in May, Jon Lester threw a no-hitter and was a hot pickup.  But was he for real, or just a one-trick pony?  Well, Tom and I both gave you the green light to pick him up.  He’s now sitting at 16-8 with a 3.38 ERA and 129 strikeouts.  Not bad for a guy who was probably drafted in the final rounds of your draft, if he was even drafted at all.  In June, a hot pickup was Carlos Gonzalez of the Oakland A’s.  He was touted as the complete package, with power and speed.  I cautioned you to avoid Gonzalez and stated that the best you could expect would be a .260 batting average with 12 HR and 60 RBI.  He didn’t even come close to hitting those modest targets. He's batting  .240 with 4 HR, 23 RBI, and a disappointing 4 SB.

Enough of looking in the rear view mirror.  You can’t change the past, but we all want to know how we can positively impact our future.  So here are a couple players who may be sitting on your waiver wire right now who could help you the rest of this season.  The first is Elijah Dukes.  He is finally healthy and in the past week is hitting .333 with 2 HR, 6 RBI, and 2 SB.  Dukes has a nice combination of speed and power and should see plenty of playing time in September.  Another guy to take a look at is pitcher Jorge De La Rosa of the Rockies.  Since August 1st, he’s been lights out, going 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts in 35.1 innings.  With the Rockies mounting another late-season run, De La Rosa could be in line for some great September numbers.

Finally, I acknowledge that there are probably one or two of you out there who are no longer in contention this year, and are already preparing for 2009.  So I will call a couple of shots now.  My “comeback” player for 2009 is New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano.  This season Cano’s batting average is .035 points lower than his career average, his on-base percentage is .032 lower, and his slugging percentage is .062 lower.  I would speculate that those numbers will return to at least his career-average levels, if not higher in 2009.  Don’t judge him purely on his 2008 numbers, or you’ll miss out on a quality second baseman, which is already a thin position for fantasy players.  Another player you shouldn’t judge entirely on his 2008 numbers is Kevin Youkilis.  This season he is hitting .026 higher than his career average, has hit 50% more home runs than in any other season in 55 fewer at-bats, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio continues to decline.  In fact, this season he is striking out almost twice as often as he is getting walked.  So much for that whole “Greek God of Walks” moniker he received years ago.  Don’t be fooled by his 2008 campaign. His career numbers tell a different story.

Just because their baseball column is on hiatus, doesn’t mean that Tom and Matt are.  They are already burning the midnight oil to get a head start for 2009.  Don’t be shy.  If you have a question, don’t hesitate to drop us a line.  Matt’s e-mail is This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it and Tom’s is This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it – we look forward to hearing from you!

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed