Tommy Landry and Tom Lorenzo field 20 questions about important topics to consider for your draft.
Like any fantasy sport, fantasy basketball requires an action plan and a sound amount of research before you draft your team. It’s important to determine who you want to focus on in the first few rounds, who to circle for the later rounds, and who looks primed to break out this year. Fortunately for you, Tommy Landry and Tom Lorenzo have put on their thinking caps, dusted off their magic eight balls, and gotten together to answer some of the most pressing questions coming into this year’s fantasy basketball season. Landry and Lorenzo put the “Experts” in RotoExperts; so without further ado: 1. What is your basic strategy when entering a fantasy basketball draft? LANDRY My strategy is pretty straightforward. In the first two or three rounds, I go for straight value, but with special emphasis placed on PG, PF, and C. Swing positions are easier to fill late in the draft. Beginning in round four or five, I begin to make tradeoffs to fill starting slots, but I also watch closely for great players that fall too far and snatch them up. Basically, if you take a value approach and be sure not to neglect PG, PF, and C in the early rounds, you can easily make up for any in-draft errors. LORENZO My strategy is a little different from Landry's. I draft to fill scoring categories early on, and then supplement any deficiencies as the draft goes on. For instance, if I can get LeBron James (SF, CLE) first, then I know that I am assured to have near 30 points, eight rebounds, eight assists, two steals, one block, and 1.5 threes per game. I am taking that and making up for his FT “problem” later on. 2. Kobe or LeBron...who would you rather have and why? LANDRY Unless I can get Chris Paul (PG, NOH) or Amare Stoudemire (C, PHX), I'd rather have the consistency and durability that Kobe brings to the table. But LBJ remains a top five pick on my list, no matter what order those other three players are taken. LORENZO I am, as noted in my one man mock draft, a LeBron guy. As far as I'm concerned, there is only one thing that Kobe Bryant does better than LeBron, and that is shoot free throws. If I get the top pick in my draft, I am going with LBJ. 3. Chris Paul, Amare Stoudemire, Kobe, LeBron, and Kevin Garnett are typically the top 5 players drafted. Who are your next 5 players? LANDRY Ah, yes, it gets a bit more uncertain around the sixth or seventh pick. For the record, I'd rather grab Dirk Nowitzki (PF, DAL) over KG this year. Garnett missed a ton of time with a minor ailment last season, which tells me he is getting too old (and is too important to the team) to play through pain. Do you really want to spend the number five pick on a guy who might sit out February again? I take Dirk there. After KG at the sixth spot, I take Steve Nash (PG, PHX) at number seven. I don't care that people seem to think he is regressing; Nash is too valuable in too many categories to pass over for the rest of the players just behind him in value. In the next two spots, things get interesting. Given my gut feeling that Dwyane Wade (PG/SG, MIA) will be fine this year, I would first chase his top-3 overall upside. Sure, I know the risk is fairly significant, but the reward is even better if it works out. Staying on the PG theme, next up would be Deron Williams (PG, UTA). He has improved each year, and he offers everything you want in your team anchor if you take one early. At the tenth pick, a fair argument can be made to take any of Caron Butler (SF, WAS), Elton Brand (PF/C, PHI), or Allen Iverson (PG/SG, DEN). I wouldn't take Butler in the first round, as he never plays a full slate of games. The safe pick here is Iverson, but I'd likely have to take a chance on Brand. He says he is at full strength and speed, and if he is, he'll be able to offer 20-9 without question...but with upside. Also, with dual PF/C eligibility, he immediately gives me a solid man in the middle around whom to build. In a 10-team league, I'd add Iverson next to him on the turn, because I'd actually get both. It's almost not fair. LORENZO In my mock draft, I actually have Shawn Marion (SF/PF, MIA) as the fifth pick. If push came to shove, I would personally take KG over Marion, and I would also pick Dirk over Marion. I think that Dirk is a better scorer, and I might value him a tad bit higher, but that is a personal preference only. Marion, due to his defense and rebounding abilities, will probably be more valuable. So, with that being said, I would have Marion sixth and then Dirk seventh. I know I am going to get a lot of flack here, but I would go with Dwight Howard (PF/C, ORL) in the eighth position,. Howard has the ability to score 23 points, shoot 60.0 percent from the floor, grab 15 rebounds, and give you two-plus blocks per game. His one setback is that he will likely shoot only 60.0 percent from the line. I've gone out on a limb with Howard, so I might as well ride this one through. With the ninth slot, I would have to go with Elton Brand, who is presumably healthy and has changed venues. Now he plays on an offense that offers an excellent distributor (Andre Miller; PG, PHI), a quick wing who can really run the floor (Andre Iguodala, SG/SF, PHI), and another big to take a little pressure off of him in the low-post (Samuel Dalembert, C, PHI). Rounding out my top ten is Dwyane Wade. I agree with Landry about his tremendous upside, which would make him an excellent value pick at ten. 4. Coming off an injury and switching teams, what can we expect from Elton Brand? LANDRY You know what I think from Question #3, and I'll stick to that forecast. With a better all-around rebounding team in Philly, Brand will be hard-pressed to top 10 boards per game. His downside is maybe late second or early third round value, but I don't see that happening. We're looking at a top 12 player if he precisely hits our projections, and with his upside, we could be flirting with top 7. However, given the magnitude of his injury (severed Achilles tendon...ouch), he does come with some risk. If you draft him, absolutely, positively, focus on getting maximum value out of your other top two round pick, just to be safe. LORENZO I noted a lot of the positives with Elton Brand in question three above. He has a terrific supporting cast who is looking for a veteran presence in Brand. I think 20 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks, and 50.0 percent from the floor makes Brand a top-10 pick. 5. Where should Dwyane Wade be picked in most drafts? LANDRY Like I said above, I'll take him as early as the seventh pick. If he is right, he moves up to Kobe Bryant territory. You won't get that out of anyone else who will still be on the board at that point in your draft. LORENZO Wade should go in the top 10. I agree that he could go as high as seven, but in most drafts, I think he falls to the 10-12 range. I think owners are still a little reluctant to build their team around a player coming off of a major injury. 6. Kevin Durant...fantasy superstar this season? If not, when? LANDRY I owned Durant in my most important fantasy league last season, and I saw a kid who was really turning the corner in the second half. Ignore his overall numbers on the season. After the All Star Break, he looked elite, posting 21.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.7 blocks on 47.6 percent field goal shooting and 88.5 percent from the line. Sure, his treys fell from 1.0 to 0.4 on a per-game basis, but there's no way he would have raised his field goal percentage by 7.4 points if he kept chucking bombs all day long. Even better, be sure not to tell your league-mates about what he did in April (24.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.9 blocks, and 0.5 treys, with similar percentages to the above). Like I said in my "50 Tips," his downside is just inside the top 30. His upside...now that just about makes me giddy heading into this season. Be ready to spend at least a fourth round pick on him if you believe. LORENZO A fantasy “superstar” may be a little bit high for Durant this season. As far as I'm concerned, he's not yet a building block. He is a fourth-fifth round pick, which is in the “star” region and not quite superstar. Next year? Most certainly. I think Durant just got his feet wet last year. As Oklahoma City starts to put the right pieces around him, I think it's only going to be another season before Durant becomes a top 20 player in this league, thus reaching superstar status. 7. Name some up and coming players that contribute stats across the board? LANDRY My favorite all-around players who are still growing into themselves includes a "who's who" of young ballers. Look at the stats I quoted above, and you'll see why Kevin Durant is on the cusp of fantasy stardom. Rudy Gay (SG/SF, MEM) is another guy who can offer solid scoring, percentages, and boards, plus hit treys, pickpocket steals, and throw back opponent shot attempts. I was also really impressed by what I saw from John Salmons (SG/SF, SAC) last season when he got enough playing time (As a starter: 17.5 PTS, 5.4 REB, 3.5 AST, 1.6 STL, and 0.7 3PT on 49.7 FG% and 81.1 FT%). This year playing time won't be an issue, and I think he'll go large. As I mention in my 50 Tips, don't overlook budding superstarts Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon, and keep your eye on Chris Quinn (PG, MIA) to impress if he wins the starting PG job outright. LORENZO Well, one player that contributes across the board but is no longer under the radar is Danny Granger (SF/PF, IND). He shoots the three ball really well; he'll give you one-plus steals and blocks; he'll score close to 20 points, grab seven rebounds and he'll shoot 85.0 percent from the charity stripe. He may not give you much in assists, but he is a guy who will contribute across the board. Rudy Gay (SG/SF, MEM) is another guy who I love that will contribute across the board. He's not as big as Granger, so he may not get as many rebounds or blocks, but he's a plus in both categories. Other guys to look at who are close to contributing across the board are Randy Foye (PG/SG, MIN), John Salmons (SG/SF, SAC), Jeff Green (SF/PF, OKC), and some fringe guys who may have two or more “off” categories: Joakim Noah (PF/C, CHI), Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF, CHI), Thaddeus Young (SF/PH, PHI), and Marvin Williams (SG/SF, ATL). 8. Which players are getting older and seeing declining stats? LANDRY I'm really down on Jason Kidd heading into this season. Dude looked terrible with the Mavericks post-trade last year, averaging a pedestrian 8.6 points-per-game. Sure, he can board and pass with the best of them, but do you want a guy dragging down your scoring and FG% categories every week? He's no better than second tier among PGs on this team. Peja Stojakovic (SG/SF, NOH) is another guy who I don't see matching his pace from last year. His back looks like it's healthy again, but that won't be enough to offset his aging body. Another guy who kinda scares me this season is Kevin Garnett (SF/PF, BOS). Sure, you have to take him in the first round if you don't have a top five pick and he is available. But I just didn't like what I saw last season, as he sat out long stretches with minor injuries. The team will rest him for the playoffs if he gets even a scratch, and he isn't quite the scoring force he once was. Like a running back over the age of 30, he's worth the risk for the upside, but I'll take Dirk over him without question. LORENZO Shaquille O'Neal (C, PHX) aside, I think his teammate Steve Nash is going to decline a bit this season. He's looked like he slowed down a little towards the end of last season and I think you are going to see Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG, PHX) play more of a significant role at point this season as they try to spell Nash to keep him fresh and make a play for the NBA Finals. Nash, in my mind is a late-second round draft pick, which of course, is a bit of a decline. Ray Allen (SG, BOS) keeps falling down the draft charts and I also would not take Jason Kidd (PG, DAL) anytime before the fifth round. Keep in mind that the 35-year old Kidd is also playing all summer in the Olympic games. His stats should take a bit of a hit this season with his aging knees taking on more this summer than they probably should. 9. Will the Lakers crowded frontcourt (Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum) affect any of their fantasy values? LANDRY Team chemistry remains a question mark, as these guys have never seen the floor together. With rumors that the team could unload Lamar Odom (SF/PF, LAL) either before or early in the season, this situation might work itself out. Otherwise, Bynum will continue to improve, Gasol will be similar to or slightly less valuable than he was after the trade last year, and Odom will rebound a little less that you might expect. I wouldn't overpay for any of them, but I really like Bynum this year if he is back to full speed. LORENZO I think you're right, Landry, about Bynum improving, which does not bode well for Gasol or Odom this year. They are both going to take hits in their rebounding numbers, and with Bynum showing that he is a force to be reckoned with in the paint, the low-post opportunities may go his way. He may get some of those shots that Gasol and Odom are used to getting. I think Bynum may be the best of the bunch in terms of fantasy value, especially in the long-run. 10. Explain the fantasy impact Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose will have this season? LANDRY This is one analyst who remains more bearish on both of these guys than is consensus. Derrick Rose (PG/SG, CHI) looked lost in summer league play, and then he got hurt. Not a good start for a guy who will have to beat out an experienced veteran in Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG, CHI) for minutes. And that's without taking into account how many minutes the team will have to give to Larry Hughes (PG/SG, CHI) and even Ben Gordon (SG, CHI), assuming the latter signs. Not a good situation, so I'm not buying. Michael Beasley (SF/PF, MIA) has all sorts of basketball fans duped into thinking he'll be an immediate 20-10 guy, or at least something just short of that level of production. After watching him get muscled around in Summer League by guys who likely won't even be on an NBA roster this year, I smell a significant adjustment period coming. Don't forget, Beasley weighs only 235 lbs. and has been generously tabbed by the league as being 6'10" tall (he was listed at 6'8" at K-State and at 6'9" during pre-draft workouts). He's simply not mobile enough to move to SF a la Lamar Odom, and the team needs him at PF anyway. It'll be a rough first half matching up against the likes of Kevin Garnett, Emeka Okafor (PF/C, CHA), and Ben Wallace (PF/C, CLE) in the Eastern Conference, not to mention who he'll face when they play teams from out west. Given where he'll likely be drafted (sixth round in early mocks), I won't be buying. LORENZO Landry is right on with his assessment on Derrick Rose. He may one day be a superstar in this league, but this year I don't expect much from him. As Landry noted, he is playing in a crowded back court and will have to share time with Hinrich, Hughes, and Gordon. Rose will most likely not see much more than 20 minutes per game as the Bulls contend for a playoff spot. Unless they make room for Rose, he's not going to contribute much this season for fantasy purposes. Michael Beasley is another interesting case. I'm a little bit more convinced in his immediate impact than Landry is, but I probably won't be taking a shot on Beasley this year and I'll tell you why – his value. It seems to me like he is going to be drafted, as Landry said, in the late-fifth to early sixth round. That is too high for his return. Every year, someone in the draft jumps on these rookies with expectations of getting better value than they return. It's the “rookie-hype” effect. Sure, 15 points and 10 rebounds are quite possible in his immediate future, but so are excessive turnovers, a mid-level freethrow percentage, and nothing much in terms of defense. Beasley should be drafted in the eighth or ninth round, but don't expect him to last that long. 11. Who are some other rookies that may have an immediate impact this season? LANDRY I'm keeping my eyes on a few players. In Memphis, it's possible that two first-year NBA players will break out in Darrell Arthur (SF/PF, MEM) and Marc Gasol (C, MEM), younger brother of Pau Gasol. The Memphis frontline consists of such fantasy stalwarts as Darko Milicic (PF/C, MEM), Hakim Warrick (SF/PF, MEM), and Mr. "Dropped off a cliff in 2005" Antoine Walker (SF/PF, MEM). Of those three, maybe Warrick deserves over 20 mpg, but the other two are just roster fillers for the real team. Both Arthur and Gasol should see 30 mpg by the second half. Arthur has a lower ceiling than Gasol, but he is more NBA-ready, so either of them could emerge, or neither. I also have to again espouse my man-love for Courtney Lee (SG, ORL), who the team won't be able to keep off the floor for very long. He is talented, smart, and also very experienced, coming off a Western Kentucky college team that went into Tennessee and nearly beat one of the top SEC teams, before making a little noise in the NCAA Tournament. Oh yeah, and you have to include Greg Oden, who has yet to appear in his first pro game. He is looking like a 13-8-2 player, which places him just inside the top 100 overall. LORENZO One rookie who I like, and who we've all gotten a pretty good look at this summer in the Olympic Games is Rudy Fernandez (PG/SG, POR). He's a seasoned guard who is already putting up great numbers in the Euroleague. He was named a Euroleague “Rising Star,” and he is ready to come in and play right away. Look at last year when Luis Scola (PF/C, HOU) came over as a Euroleague veteran and was able to contribute immediately. I like Fernandez's prospects of doing so, and I was quite impressed at how well he played in the Olympics. I also have to echo Landry's adoration of both Darrell Arthur and Marc Gasol of Memphis. I, however, am on the other side of the coin, thinking that Arthur's impact will be greater than Gasol's. In the end, though, they are two rookies to keep an eye on. Finally, I want to espouse MY man-love for Danilo Gallinari (SF/PF, NYK). He's a prototypical “system” guy, and there is a reason why the Knicks and Mike D'Antoni took a chance on this guy. He fits a need and plays D'Antoni-type of ball. Danilo is probably not worth drafting, but keep an eye on him. 12. Yao Ming or Tim Duncan...who would you rather have and why? LANDRY Easy choice - Yao Ming (C, HOU). Yao is simply too good when he does play to pass over for a guy who'll absolutely devastate your team in free throw percentage. Sure, Tim Duncan (F/C, SAS) is still good for averages of 19-11-2, and he is more likely than Yao to play in at least 70 games. Just look the other way and cough when you check his free throw stats in the box score, because repeated 9-for-13 and 6-for-11 performances will start to hurt as the season wears on. Yao is the same player as Duncan overall, except he hits his free throws at around 85%. Go for risk/reward and upside, which has a chance of not impacting you (if Yao evades his annual ailment), rather than taking a guy who will hurt you even if he does manage to play. And at Duncan's age (32), ongoing health is never a guarantee, either. LORENZO This is a great question. I'm not sure it's as easy as Landry thinks. I know that Tim Duncan is much older than Yao, and I also know that he sometimes gets looked upon as the Derek Jeter of fantasy basketball. He's the guy around whom you would build your team, because he wins championships and has “intangibles,” but none of those things count in fantasy basketball. But what does count is games played. Over the past three seasons Yao has played 57, 48, and 55 games respectively. Tim Duncan played in 80, 80, and 78 games. I know, Yao Ming is “healthy” and looked great in the Olympics this summer, but that also concerns me. The guy is coming off of a major foot injury, and, instead of taking the extra time to rehab it over the summer, he is playing in the Olympics? That has to scare you a bit. See, I am confident in taking Duncan in the early third round, but I still have reservations about Yao. If you could guarantee Yao would play 80 games this season, I would look at him in the first round, but I'm not prepared to build around him until he can prove to be healthy. 13. Finish the following sentence...you will have a good chance to win your fantasy basketball league if _________? LANDRY ... you draft only players who aren't perennial injury guys. Since the "real world" league replaced the Injured List with the Inactive List, Fantasy Basketball also lost the IL feature. No more stashing guys and replacing them temporarily, so just stay away from players who you know are fragile and will miss time. And look at more than last season's numbers, because it doesn't tell the whole story about a player's injury risk nor his overall growth. LORENZO ...fill out all of your scoring categories. Plain and simple. If I am taking Dwight Howard in the first round, then I am going to make sure I get 1) a 25 ppg scorer and two steals per game guy like Allen Iverson (PG/SG, DEN) and 2) a free throw and three point shooting specialist like Peja Stojakovic (SF, NOH) in later rounds to make up for what Howard lacks. Fill out those categories! 14. What should your goal of the first three rounds in a draft be? LANDRY In the first round, it's all about maximizing value for your pick and avoiding massive risk. Yao Ming is no longer a first round pick, even though he will provide elite statistics for part of the season. That's because of risk avoidance. Otherwise, don't get too crazy yet about following a pre-set strategy to fill out offensive positions. I've seen guys reach down waaay too far to snag a "precious and on-the-cusp-of-stardom" Center, thinking they were insulating against position scarcity, only to have that guy regress or get hurt. If you come out of round three with at least one PG, one C or PF, and another elite player, without reaching too far for any of them, you've built a solid foundation for your team. LORENZO Landry used a great word in his answer - foundation. You need to build a foundation. You need to get three different types of players without reaching. If you take Allen Iverson in the late first or early second round, then you should probably not take another combo guard in the third because you are essentially getting the same player when you are trying to fill out categories. I make sure I have a point guard, a wing, and a big man in the first three. Take the value pick when you are drafting, but do not leave any holes. If I take Chris Paul first, then I am looking for a PF or C who has second round value. Build a foundation! 15. Name three players that you will not be drafting this upcoming season. LANDRY Chris Kaman (C, LAC): The "Caveman" isn't just scary to look at...he's downright scary to watch play. Sure, he had an amazing first half in 2007-08 on a team with almost no one else available to score and rebound in the post. Did ya see his second half? He will be drafted in the top 50 in most leagues. I won't touch him before the seventh or eighth round, tops. In that case, I won't have to worry about him at all. Michael Beasley (SF/PF, MIA): See my commentary above. He'll face big growing pains in the first half, and I just don't think he is ready to bang with NBA bigboys. If he lingers until maybe the ninth or tenth, I'll give him a hard look on principle alone. Otherwise, not interested. Mickael Pietrus (SG/SF, ORL): As much as I want to see the young Frenchman succeed, he's just too risky for me to take with anything more than maybe a 15th round flier. Why you may ask? First, the team drafted Courtney Lee to help with depth at the swing positions. I saw him play very well during March Madness last year, and he was also one of the best in the summer league. I hope Pietrus can still slide over to PF like he did with the Warriors, because he'll need to be really flexible to stay on the floor. Aside from the inconsistency risk with him moving all over the court, Pietrus is a terrible free throw shooter in his own right. There's not enough upside to counteract the threat to his minutes and the damage he'll do to your FT% category, so he looks a lot better as a waiver wire acquisition to me. LORENZO Gilbert Arenas (PG, WASH): I've never really been a Gil guy for pure fantasy purposes. When it comes to entertainment value, I like me some Gilbert Arenas. There are too many things this season that worry me about him. First of all, he is coming off a major knee injury, which is never a good thing. He also has the contract that he “deserves,” which takes away a little bit of the swagger that made him such a deadly player. He always talked about how he got no respect, and, well, $111 million is enough respect for any player in the league. As far as his talents, he'll kill you by shooting about 41.0 percent from the floor and is bound to turn the ball over 3+ times per game. He's essentially a scorer and scorer only. You'll get threes and points from him and a decent free throw percentage – 82.0. But, that's about it. For a guy who is going to be picked in the late-second or early-third round, I'll pass. Ricky Davis (SG/SF, LAC): This guy is just too hot-and-cold for me. Last season in November and December, he averaged 15.3 PPG. He followed that up by averaging 10.7 PPG for January and February. He always seems like he has something to prove out there on the court, since he's been with five teams in ten seasons. Well, Ricky, just prove to me that you can stay consistent. I'm not buying that you can, so I'll pass. Zach Randolph (PF, NYK): It might not be obvious why I'm avoiding Randolph, but this guy takes off more games (mentally) than Vince Carter (SG/SF, NJN). We have to apologize to Vince now for all of the flack we've given him over the years. Randolph is the new Carter. I watched 82 Knicks games last season (I still haven't recovered). More times than not, I was appalled by the play of Randolph. Think there is a reason why the Trailblazers improved drastically without him? Your team will too if you pass on this guy. Trust me. 16. Name three players you will be targeting in upcoming drafts. LANDRY Jose Calderon (PG, TOR): Huge breakout coming this year. Stephen Jackson (SG/SF, GSW): Did you see how many shots he took with Baron Davis (PG, LAC) still serving as the top option? Jackson won't help you in FG%, but he should increase his production in points, treys, and assists. Top 40 player on my board. Mehmet Okur (PF/C, UTA): It took him half a year to adjust to playing alongside Carlos Boozer (PF/C, UTA). Just as Okur figured it out, Boozer started to fall off in the second half. That's what I expect to continue into this season. LORENZO Rudy Gay (SG/SF, MEM): He has a complete skill-set. I mentioned him as a guy who can help you across the board, and I meant it. Luol Deng (SG/SF, CHI): He is too complete of a basketball player to put up another season like he did last year. If he can match what he did in 2006-07, then you are getting great value where he is falling in drafts. This guy is very talented, and he is going to have a big year this year. Andre Miller (PG, PHI): He has the ability to put up 15 points and 10-plus assists with all of the scorers he has on his team now. Miller is a bit under the radar, as usual, and I see him being one of the leading assist men in the NBA. That's great value in the sixth or seventh round. 17. What is the thinnest position and how does this affect your draft strategy? LANDRY This all depends on how you define "thinnest." There are a ton of PG options, but only seven or eight of them are true difference makers. Those guys will be gone by the second round. Since a couple of PG emerge every year, I go for one of the elite and try to tab sleepers for my bench. It would have to be at Center or Power Forward where positional depth is a problem. These guys rarely hit treys and tend to be weak in FT%. If you can snag a guy who breaks the mold in either/both of those areas without being terrible elsewhere (Andrea Bargnani, I'm talking to you), it's a huge boost to your overall team strength. LORENZO I suppose I would have to say at the Center position. The thing we tend to see in fantasy basketball more so than any other sport is that many players are eligible for two positions. While you'd be drafting a guy like Rasheed Wallace (PF/C, DET) to play PF typically, you are able to slot him into the Center position. If push comes to shove, though, there are simply more wings in this league than any other position. The Center position has to be the thinnest, which is why you need to make sure you grab one – or a Center-eligible Power Forward – in the first few rounds. You can then grab a Center specialist in the later rounds – Biedrins, Bogut, Ilgauskas, etc. - to fill out your lineup. 18. Name two late round sleepers that can be become top 100 players this season. LANDRY Chris Quinn (PG, MIA): I expect him to start and play well. Realistically, you can think of him as having potential to deliver sixth round value. But his upside says third round value wouldn't be out of the question. I'm buying. Troy Murphy (PF/C, IND): Man, this guy gets no love in fantasy circles. Once the perennially-injured Jermaine O'Neal (PF/C, TOR) dropped off the face of the earth statistically in 2007-08, yielding the bulk of the frontline minutes to other players, Murphy was a stellar fantasy option. Check out his post-All Star Break numbers: 31.5 mpg, 14.8 ppg, 7.7 rbg, 2.4 apg, 1.4 treys/game, 50.5 FG%, and 76.2 FT%. He also stole 0.7 per game and blocked 0.5 per game, while yielding a mere 1.5 TO/game. Tell me you can't use that at the center position, and I'll tell you you're full of something unpleasant that rhymes with skit. LORENZO Al Thornton (SF/PF, LAC): We currently have Thornton ranked 148 in our projections. I think that he's much better than that. His projected FG shooting (42.8 percent) and FT shooting (74.3 percent) kills his rating. If he can even up those percentages by 3-to-4 percent, then we are talking about a guy who can contribute across the board. He is the building block in LAC, and this could be his season when we start calling Thornton the next Danny Granger, even if he comes without the ability to hit the three. Wilson Chandler (SG/SF, NYK): I may be going way out on a limb here. I'm going to touch on Chandler more in my “Back-ups to Watch” column, but here we have another guy who is in the perfect system – Mike D'Antoni's. The Knicks know that he is a building block and is better than starter Quentin Richardson (SG/SF, NYK). Chandler was one of the best players in this season's Las Vegas Summer league, which isn't really telling, but I see bigger things this year from him. 19. Baron Davis or Steve Nash...who would you rather have and why? LANDRY Steve Nash. Like I said earlier, don't let one year cloud your judgment of the truth. Aside from last year, Baron always seems to be hurt. Nash hasn't played fewer than 75 games since 2000, and he is a top 7 player in fantasy without question. If you add in TOs as a category, Baron isn't even top 15. LORENZO For me, I'm a Baron Davis guy. The only thing that Nash can do better than Baron is shoot. His percentages are better, but Nash is a huge turnover guy with no defensive abilities at all. Baron will turn the ball over, but he will also give you 2.1 steals per game. Davis will outscore Nash this season, and, as I suspect, the Suns have one more run in them as the team is constructed today. I think they are going to do their best to avoid burning out Nash in the regular season. His MPG should be down this year, which will hurt his value. Don't get me wrong - Nash is second round talent, but if push came to shove, I would have to choose Davis over Nash. Of course, it's contingent on who I draft in the first round.... 20. Look into your magic ball...it's 2012...who are the top 5 picks? LANDRY You know, I've been thinking about walking on at one of the D-League teams. I've got the Austin Toros in my sights, and next stop, THE San Antonio Spurs and a top five...Okay,dream sequence aside...I'll go with Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Chris Paul, Danny Granger, and LeBron James. Of course, that's with no idea of what amazing talents are yet to come to the NBA. LORENZO Picks are still “in” in 2012? I thought those went out in the 70's! Score one for Lorenzo! In all seriousness, LeBron James, Chris Paul, and Kevin Durant are right on as Landry said. If I can't pick Ricky Rubio, since he is not yet in the league, I think Landry missed out on Andrew Bynum and Jose Calderon, who could end up being the next Steve Nash with minimal turnovers and a plus in the steals category. BONUS NON-FANTASY RELATED QUESTIONS Who will be in the NBA finals this season? Landry: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Lorenzo: Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics Who will win the MVP? Kobe Bryant (SG, LAL) LeBron James (SF, CLE) Who will win the Rookie of the Year? Kevin Love (PF/C, MIN) Michael Beasley (SF/PF, MIA) Who will win the Most Improved award? Jose Calderon (PG, TOR) Joakim Noah (PF/C, CHI) The answers to these questions should help build a foundation for any successful fantasy team. The key to true success, though, is to do your homework, follow off-season transactions, analyze depth charts and of course, head to the RotoExperts forums if you have any questions. Have other NBA questions that you need answered? Or simply need a life coach? Email Brad at brysz@rotoexperts.
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