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Whether hurt working out or a playing in a pick-up game, Ellis' torn ligament in his ankle will mean the Warriors will be without their sharp-shooting guard for three months. Photo Credit: Ytoyoda

Question: How do you adjust the fantasy value of Monta Ellis and his teammates in light of his knee injury, which is expected to sideline him for at least three months?
As if the Warriors haven’t been in the news enough this off-season, a recent development concerning one of their best players has altered the fantasy landscape of the team. Monta Ellis (PG/SG, GSW), the NBA’s 2006-07 Most Improved Player, followed up his breakout sophomore campaign with an even better performance last season. The 22-year-old poured in 20.2 points-per-game with 5.0 rebounds and 3.9 assists per contest.

With ex-Warrior Baron Davis (PG, LAC) now in Los Angeles, Ellis was expected to take over primary starting point guard duties. That is, until he suffered a torn deltoid ligament in his left ankle in a pickup basketball game. Well, that’s his side of the story. Several cuts and abrasions on his leg have raised doubt with the Warriors about whether Ellis’ ailment isn’t basketball-related. The team is still investigating the injury, so there is no word on whether Ellis could face a suspension if he lied about it. All we know right now is that Ellis is slated to miss at least the first month of the regular season. How does this affect his fantasy value, along with his teammates? Let's see what the RotoExperts think.

ROTOEXPERTS' TAKE:

Jeff Andriesse
The news of Monta Ellis' injury has me walking around in a stupor lately. He was one of the few players about whom I was excited this season, and now I have to temper my enthusiasm. The strange circumstances surrounding his ankle injury are disturbing, and I get the feeling that the diagnosis of only a month of missed time is optimistic. Let's say it is a month - what happens to Ellis' draft stock? I'd drop him to about the fourth or fifth round and hope that he is back to his old self by January. Meanwhile, I like Stephen Jackson (SG/SF, GSW) to take a step up. Jackson is already relishing the alpha-dog status he inherits due to Baron Davis' departure. The chance for him to initiate the offense with the ball in his hands more often will do wonders for his already-overinflated ego. Marcus Williams (PG/SG, GSW) is clearly more valuable as well, but I'm not sure he's good for anything but assists. He's a turnover machine who might not be ready to be a full-time point guard. One month of him as the starter isn't enough for me to move him much higher on my draft board, since I think he'll be back to a bench role when Ellis returns.

Hector Castro
The Warriors are lucky that this injury to Monta Ellis is more like Jeff Kent washing his car rather then Kellen Winslow's motorcycle display. The ankle injury, which will keep him out at least the first month of the regular season, impacts newly acquired Marcus Williams, as he is now the new starting point guard. Williams should average double-digits in points and approximately seven assists as the starter. Unless Golden State signs another veteran guard to help, the Warriors will be looking to give C.J. Watson (PG/SG, GSW) a shot some minutes to back up Williams. Watson produced some very nice numbers in the NBDL last year, so it will be interesting to see what he can do on the pro level. Another off-season addition, Corey Maggette (SG/SF, GSW), will benefit from Ellis’ injury, because he will be leaned on to take the ball to the hoop more frequently on offense.

Jonathan Huang
Marcus Williams obviously gets the biggest opportunity to show his stuff with Ellis out.  The starting point guard slot is his to lose, and it's possible that he keeps it even when Monta returns...assuming he performs well enough, that is.  A reasonable projection for him would be 10-12 points, 4-5 assists, and a few steals to boot; he’s definitely a nice late round flier, worth considering if you're in need of a third point guard.  With all that said, Ellis becomes fourth or fifth round material, give or take, depending on your league settings and categories.  The Golden State players who stand to see a slight boost in their fantasy value include: Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, and probably Al Harrington (PF/C, GSW).  All three veterans will be looked upon to make up for the scoring gap left by Ellis. That really shouldn't be a problem, especially considering the types of players they are.  

Tommy Landry
Man, Monta's injury was a huge disappointment for this fantasy basketball player...I'll tell you that. For a guy I had in my Top 20, it's a real bummer to see him go down with such a serious ankle problem, and even more concerning that it required surgery and rehab. So what happens to Ellis and the rest of the Warriors now? Don't overanalyze this situation and avoid Monta altogether or start taking guys like Corey Maggette in the third round. Ellis should now go at a one- or two-round discount due to the time he will miss (and take note that three months from when he was hurt means his projected return is late November, only one month into the season), but he is still undoubtedly a Top 50 player in any format. If he falls to the fourth or later, don't sleep on him. As for the rest of the team, the only player who'll see a notable increase in value is Marcus Williams. He will get to start from opening day, and my super sleeper might just pan out much earlier than expected. I won't go into anything about where he was drafted or how he never got a crack to show his wares in New Jersey. I'll let his stats as a starter speak on my behalf:
11.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 6.3 ast, 1.9 3pt, 1.1 stl, 41.2 FG%, 81.8 FT%; in 30.5 mpg.

Tom Lorenzo
This obviously hurts Monta's value going into the draft.  The name that everyone is talking about is PG Marcus Williams.  He is obviously the guy who will benefit most from this injury, now that he is slated to start at the point for the Warriors.  This injury also opens up more shots for both Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette.  I'm not a big fan of the latter, but I think we might see a little bump in value for Jackson.  Two guys who I see benefitting from this injury are Kelenna Azubuike (SG/SF, GSW), who I like a lot as a sleeper this year, and Marco Belinelli (PG/SG, GSW), who might finally get enough playing time to make an impact.  The bottom line: I might not look at Ellis until the fifth round pending any new developments, since it looks more likely that Ellis is going to be out for up to four months in total.  

Matt Wirkiowski
As of now, Monta Ellis will miss only the first month of the season. Obviously, that timeframe could get extended. As it stands right now, if he were to only miss the month of November, that would mean he would miss 15 games, or a little less than 20 percent of the season.  Based on this initial prognosis, I would downgrade Ellis about two rounds on my cheat sheet.  While Marcus Williams will get the first shot at starting in his absence, I wouldn't upgrade Williams more than a round or two. Once again, it may only be 15 games that he plays significant minutes.  However, the two guys who should see a surge in their scoring opportunities are Corey Maggette and Al Harrington.  Both of these players are selfish, and each will try to assert themselves as the main scorer while Ellis recuperates.  Fortunately, for fantasy owners, selfishness is a good thing.  While I may not bump them up much, I would certainly look to target them more aggressively than I would have prior to this injury.  However if Ellis develops any complications and is sidelined longer, then I would begin to bump those players up my cheat sheets even more.

Summary:
It’s difficult (and frankly, irresponsible) to speculate about how much time an injured player will miss. All we know is that Ellis was ruled out for at least three months from the time of his August 27 surgery. Based on that guidance, Ellis is projected to miss at least the entire first month of the season. How do you value that? Not only do you have to factor in the time missed, but you have to assess how well he will play once he returns. You’d assume he’ll return at nearly 100 percent physically healthy, but it might take at least another week or two for Ellis to get back in the swing of things.

All in all, I agree with Landry’s analysis. Ellis is still a Top 50 player, especially if he were to take over as starting point guard. His assists should increase to about six per game, and he is a fantastic candidate, assuming he returns healthy, to at least match his 20-points-per-game average. Other fantasy owners in your league might be scared by Ellis’ injury or may not be willing to take a chance on a player who is expected to miss at least one month. If he’s available by the fourth round, he could end up as one of the better steals in your draft, especially as someone who can be a big asset during the season’s second half.

Kyle Stack still can't get over the Lakers' Vladimir Radmanovic lying about his shoulder injury during the 2007 All-Star Break by saying he slipped on a patch of ice in Park City, Utah. Liar, liar pants on fire! If you want to talk about Vlad-Rad's hot pants, hot shooting touch or anything else NBA-related, shoot him an e-mail at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it

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