Greg Kinzer drops 2010 fantasy golf knowledge with a Top 100 listing packed with value.

Once again it is time for the coffee maker to percolate after hours - The 2010 PGA season is sneaking up on us. A lot has happened in the past three months since the Tour Championship. 20 Nationwide Tour members earned their spot to the big show with a strong 2009. Another 25 “tweeners” were relegated to grinding away at Q-school in order to book a return trip to the PGA circuit. The United States won the President’s Cup, and Tiger won the FedEx Cup and the PGA Player of the Year award for the 10th time in 13 years. And unfortunately the other “number” swirling around Tiger in December is 13 as well. But enough of that!

Like some members of his Top 100, Greg Kinzer “has trouble with the big stick”

Below is a list of the Top 100 PGA players from a fantasy golf perspective. A staff of top men worked around the clock, as our super mainframe computer sifted through millions of bytes of data and finally spit out this list.

Riiiiiiight.

Actually this list was produced by your benevolent golf writer. Before you start tearing this list apart, let’s remember who consistently recommended Marc Leishman, whom regularly exceeded expectations. You might not agree with player X being a spot over player Y. Any ranking this long is going to spark debate. Take my recommendation though and keep it handy over the course of the 2010 season when determining fantasy rosters. You just might thank me in the end.

Enjoy!

2010 Fantasy Golf PGA Top 100 List-
1. Tiger Woods

2009 Tournaments: 17    Cuts Made: 16   Wins: 6 Top 10: 14     Top 25: 16

2009 FedEx Standing: 1st              2010 Projected Finish: 1st (with qualification)

Key Stat: 68.84 scoring average

Grab the Bag: Majors, FedEx Cup Playoffs, Memorial Tournament, Arnold Palmer Classic

Leave in the Clubhouse: Until post-Elin layoff is over, second tier events, Fall Finish events

Summary/Strategy: Tiger might have fallen from hero status in many eyes, but as long as he doesn’t pull a David Duval and mentally crater he is still the best golfer in the world, hands down. Only four golfers in history won more tournaments in their career than Woods won in the past decade (56). The AP Male Athlete of the Decade will have miles to go to rebuild his off-the-course image but he is a strong favorite in any event he enters. If the reports are true and Elin is indeed filing for divorce, our best guess will be that Tiger’s tour absence will be over by the Masters.

2. Phil Mickelson

2009 Tournaments: 18    Cuts Made: 16   Wins: 3 Top 10: 7      Top 25: 7

2009 FedEx Standing: 2nd             2010 Projected Finish: 2nd

Key Stats: 64.91% GIR

Grab the Bag: FBR Open, Northern Trust Open, any Tigerless event

Leave in the Clubhouse: British Open

Summary/Strategy: Mickelson’s 2009 performance was truly incredible when you take into account the fact that both his wife and mother were diagnosed with breast cancer within six weeks of each other. Phil’s strength is often his weakness – an unshakable confidence of his abilities that have led to some strange situations in big moments. He is not a no-brainer like Tiger week-after-week, but who else is? His three wins in 2009 (including the Tour Championship and WGC CA Championships) put his career victory list at 37. If Tiger wasn’t around, “Lefty” would be this era’s greatest golfer.

3. Sean O’Hair

2009 Tournaments: 23    Cuts Made: 18   Wins: 1 Top 10: 9      Top 25: 14

2009 FedEx Standing: 5th              2010 Projected Finish: 3rd

Key Stats: 67.84 GIR (27th)

Grab the Bag: Quail Hollow Championship, Arnold Palmer Invitational

Leave in the Clubhouse: Players Championship, Fall Finish events

Summary/Strategy: O’Hair is likely the least known golfer residing in last year’s Top 10 FedEx points list, but this should not dissuade you of his huge upside in 2010 and beyond. Youth and talent is a great combination, and O’Hair is making the most of it at this point of his career with 23 Top 10s and 100 cuts made in a total of 135 events. Last year he doubled his 2008 bounty with $4.3 million dollars of official earnings in only 23 events. O’Hair is a steady top-tier option capable of racking up Top 10 finishes with amazing consistency.

4. Padraig Harrington

2009 Tournaments: 20    Cuts Made: 14   Wins: 0          Top 10: 2      Top 25: 9

2009 FedEx Standing: 7th              2010 Projected Finish: 4th

Key Stats: 29.28 Putts Per Round (10th)

Grab the Bag: Majors

Leave in the Clubhouse: World Golf Championship Events

Summary/Strategy: Harrington, the 2008 PGA Player of the Year, failed to win on the PGA Tour for the first time since 2006 but was able to piece together enough high finishes to claim seventh place in the final FedEx Cup points standings. His first Top 10 in 30 WGC events at the Bridgestone Invitational started a streak of six straight PGA Top 10 finishes. Harrington saves his best performances for the big stage – three of his five PGA Tour victories are in major championships.

5. Steve Stricker

2009 Tournaments: 22    Cuts Made: 19   Wins: 3          Top 10: 11     Top 25: 16

2009 FedEx Standing: 3rd              2010 Projected Finish: 5th

Key Stats: 11 Top 10s (50% of starts)

Grab the Bag: World Golf Championship events

Leave in the Clubhouse: FBR Open

Summary/Strategy: How does a guy that won more than $6.3 million in 2009 slip a spot in our predictions compared to 2009? Past history. Stricker finished second in the 2007 FedEx race to Tiger but then dropped off substantially in 2008. This, along with Stricker’s advancing age (43 in February) might limit his production a tad. But let’s get one thing straight – Stricker is still a Top 10 Fantasy candidate and should fit nicely on most rosters on a weekly basis.

6. Zach Johnson

2009 Tournaments: 26    Cuts Made: 22   Wins: 2          Top 10: 9      Top 25: 16

2009 FedEx Standing: 6th              2010 Projected Finish: 6th

Key Stats: All-Around Ranking (2nd)

Grab the Bag: Valero Texas Open, Georgia Tournaments

Leave in the Clubhouse: U.S. Open

Summary/Strategy: Johnson was once considered a one-trick pony, with wins only in the state of Georgia (Masters and Bellsouth Classic). Those days are over, as Zach has won in Hawaii and Texas to cover a majority of the other United States time zones. His two wins in 2009 were bolstered further by a tied-second at the John Deere Classic and a solo third at the Arnold Palmer Classic. Johnson was ranked second in the All-Around statistic, a measurement of eight critical golf categories that proves how well rounded his game has become.

7. Nick Watney

2009 Tournaments: 24    Cuts Made: 19   Wins: 1 Top 10: 4      Top 25: 12

2009 FedEx Standing: 12th            2010 Projected Finish: 7th

Key Stats: Driving Distance (6th)

Grab the Bag: Event formerly known as Buick Invitational, WGC events

Leave in the Clubhouse: U.S. Open, PGA Championship

Summary/Strategy: Nick who? “Watney” is this guy doing on the leaderboard? (I will be in town the rest of the week, try the veal). Nick Watney jumped 172 spots in the World Golf Rankings and solidified his spot in our Top 100 list with over $3.2 million in earnings.  He only won once over the course of the year, but loaded up his results page with a solo second, a tied fourth, a solo fifth and a tied sixth to bolster his Top 100 credentials. These finishes were in big-money events; hence the meteoric rise in our view of him.

8. Kenny Perry

2009 Tournaments: 24    Cuts Made: 24   Wins: 2          Top 10: 8      Top 25: 12

2009 FedEx Standing: 9th              2010 Projected Finish: 8th

Key Stats: Total driving (9th)

Grab the Bag: FBR Open

Leave in the Clubhouse: British Open

Summary/Strategy: It won’t seem fair – I penalize Stricker earlier (and others later in this piece) for aging, yet gloss over the fact that Perry is nearly 50 years old. While others are pacing themselves for the Champions Tour, money whip Perry is setting his sites on 20 wins (his goal – he currently has 13). Why is he so high on our ranking?
1)  24 cuts made last year, in 24 events (good for any age)
2)  9th in total driving (combination of distance and accuracy)
3)  Did we mention he was an ageless wonder?

British Open aside (he doesn’t like windswept links-style golf) Perry is a strong starter candidate every week barring injury. Keep in mind he might be damaged goods at Augusta this year after last year’s collapse.

9. Jim Furyk

2009 Tournaments: 23    Cuts Made: 21   Wins: 0          Top 10: 11     Top 25: 14

2009 FedEx Standing: 4th              2010 Projected Finish: 9th

Key Stats: 69.48 scoring average (3rd)

Grab the Bag: Canadian Open, Memorial Tournament

Leave in the Clubhouse: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Summary/Strategy: Furyk’s accountant loved him last year as he cashed in on 11 Top 10s and claimed just a shade under $4.0 million in 2009. However, his carpenter remained idle as Furyk needed no additional trophy space in his house. We slipped Furyk down a bit despite the fact that we feel he will win an event this year.

10. Ernie Els

2009 Tournaments: 19    Cuts Made: 16   Wins: 0          Top 10: 7      Top 25: 10

2009 FedEx Standing: 16th            2010 Projected Finish: 10th

Key Stats: 70.21 scoring average (26th)

Grab the Bag: British Open, WGC Accenture Match Play

Leave in the Clubhouse: Fall Finish events

Summary/Strategy: Golf fans realize that up until mid-2009 that the Ernie Els we were watching was not the same caliber of player that we saw win the 2002 British Open. Reconstructive knee surgery will do that do you, and many observers felt that Els did not push himself in rehab as he should have. That aside, it appears that Els is poised to make one more push to the top as he hits the wrong side of 40. His seven Top 10s is the most of his career since 2006.

11. Geoff Ogilvy

2009 Tournaments: 20    Cuts Made: 18   Wins: 2          Top 10: 5      Top 25: 10

2009 FedEx Standing: 13th            2010 Projected Finish: 11th

Key Stats: 3.82 Birdie Average (21st)

Grab the Bag: WGC Accenture Match Play Championship, U.S. Open

Leave in the Clubhouse: British Open

Summary/Strategy: Despite winning the Mercedes Championship and the Accenture Match Play (for the second time) many felt that 2009 was a bit of a slip for Geoff.  The rankings do back that up, as he regressed from 11th to 14th overall in the world golf standings. That being said, who cares! He didn’t have the mass Top 10 coverage that others had, but he is a contender each and every week he plays. He is a must start in the Match Play format early in the season.

12. Retief Goosen

2009 Tournaments: 20    Cuts Made: 19   Wins: 1          Top 10: 5      Top 25: 10

2009 FedEx Standing: 18th            2010 Projected Finish: 12th

Key Stats: Eagles (holes per eagle) – 2nd

Grab the Bag: U.S. Open, Transitions Championship, Masters Tournament

Leave in the Clubhouse: WGC events (at least based on 2009 results)

Summary/Strategy: “Old Reliable” made a comeback after a substandard 2008, bringing home the hardware in the Transitions Championship and losing a hard-fought playoff at the RBC Canadian Open. The two-time U.S. Open champion made the 36 hole cut in 95% of his events in 2009, better than Tiger and most others ahead of him on this list. When Goosen gets the putter rolling true he is darn near unbeatable.

13. Y.E. Yang

2009 Tournaments: 23    Cuts Made: 19   Wins: 2 Top 10: 5      Top 25: 15

2009 FedEx Standing: 23rd            2010 Projected Finish: 13th

Key Stats: Tiger-slayer

Grab the Bag: PGA Championship, Honda Classic

Leave in the Clubhouse: Masters Tournament

Summary/Strategy: The visual of Y.E. Yang lifting his golf bag over his head in triumph after disposing of previously unbeaten-in-a-major-when-in-the-lead Tiger Woods was a moment of the ages. Not shabby at all for a guy forced to play in the 2008 Q-School event just to carve his way back on the big stage. Yang wasn’t a rookie last year, but he definitely was a candidate for best rags-to-riches story – he increased his earnings from $461,000 all the way up to $3.4 million. This doesn’t take into account sponsorship dollars. Yang’s PGA Championship win was no fluke – he won the Honda Classic earlier in the season.

14. Dustin Johnson

2009 Tournaments: 25   Cuts Made: 20   Wins: 1 Top 10: 5      Top 25: 17

2009 FedEx Standing: 14th            2010 Projected Finish: 14th

Key Stats: Driving Distance – 308.3 (3rd)

Grab the Bag: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Leave in the Clubhouse: The Players Championship

Summary/Strategy: Johnson is a member of the “flat-belly” group – younger players aiming to give the forty-somethings a run for their money. His rookie year on tour was very fruitful - $1.7 million in winnings and a victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. There was no sophomore slump in 2009, with another win (AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am) and seven other Top 10s that bumped his win total up to just a shade under $3.0 million. Dustin was third in the driving distance category, but not so great in accuracy. The future is bullish for the 25-year-old out of Coastal Carolina, and he should be a nice selection under the right circumstances in 2010.

15. Heath Slocum

2009 Tournaments: 30    Cuts Made: 17   Wins: 1          Top 10: 4      Top 25: 5

2009 FedEx Standing: 8th              2010 Projected Finish: 15th

Key Stats: 71.99% Driving Accuracy Percentage (7th)

Grab the Bag: The Barclays

Leave in the Clubhouse: Sony Open

Summary/Strategy: Slocum’s 2009 FedEx Cup standing is a bit inflated due to the timing of his FedEx playoff win at The Barclays (worth 2,500 points rather than the normal 500). This bumps him down a tad in our eyes, but the fact that he won that event with all the big names in attendance counts for something. Slocum is one of the few residing in the Top 20 that are near the top in Driving Accuracy (7th overall), and his distance hovers right around the tour average unlike most of the other accurate short-knockers.  He is still flying under the radar and should be considered a solid play in tiered league where he is likely to reside outside the highest group.

16. Scott Verplank

2009 Tournaments: 24    Cuts Made:19   Wins: 0 Top 10: 6      Top 25: 11

2009 FedEx Standing: 10th            2010 Projected Finish: 16th

Key Stats: Putting Average- 1.741 (18th)

Grab the Bag: HP Byron Nelson championship

Leave in the Clubhouse: Early season events

Summary/Strategy: It is amazing to think that Verplank is 45 years old, remembering back to his win at the 1985 Western Open as an amateur from Oklahoma State that drew comparisons to Jack Nicklaus. Verplank’s five career wins over the past 24 years is a bit underwhelming, but he is a model of consistency. Six solid Top 10s in 2009 (including two seconds and a fourth) proves that he is still a solid earner despite the lack of titles. Last season’s 69.99 scoring average was the lowest season since his 70.23 in 2005, so age has yet to erode Scott’s skills.

17. Steve Marino

2009 Tournaments: 29    Cuts Made: 22   Wins: 0          Top 10:5       Top 25: 13

2009 FedEx Standing: 15th            2010 Projected Finish: 17th

Key Stats: 69.90 Scoring Average (9th)

Grab the Bag: Crowne Plaza Invitational, Zurich Classic of New Orleans

Leave in the Clubhouse: Early season events

Summary/Strategy: Surely everyone has heard the “Best Player to Never Win a Major” moniker? Well Marino is likely the best player on the PGA to fit this bill regarding normal events. Steve has been close with 15 Top 10s over the past three years. We love him as a sneaky pick to round out a roster in a big-name event as he performs equally well in various tournament types. He does start off slow so make him prove his worth before you tag him as a starter.

18. Lucas Glover

2009 Tournaments: 26    Cuts Made: 21   Wins: 1 Top 10: 6      Top 25: 12

2009 FedEx Standing: 17th            2010 Projected Finish: 18th

Key Stats: Total Driving (2nd)

Grab the Bag: U.S. Open, Quail Hollow Championship

Leave in the Clubhouse: Players Championship

Summary/Strategy: Glover’s season was made with his victory over sentimental favorite Phil Mickelson at the 2009 U.S. Open, but often overlooked is that he had lofty finishes in five other events good enough for Top 10s. His all-around driving ranking explains his U.S. Open victory (six inch rough is harmless if you are hitting fairways) and he will be swinging freely knowing that he has a five-year exemption for that major championship victory. Glover jumped from 178th to 20th in the world rankings and he will likely remain at this level barring injury for years to come.

19. John Senden

2009 Tournaments: 29    Cuts Made: 22   Wins: 0 Top 10: 7      Top 25: 11

2009 FedEx Standing: 24th            2010 Projected Finish: 19th

Key Stats: GIR – 70.89% (1st)

Grab the Bag: John Deere Classic

Leave in the Clubhouse: British Open

Summary/Strategy: Senden was winless officially on the PGA Tour in 2009 but he did claim the Australian Masters in his home country earlier in the year. This confidence helped him proceed through the schedule in an efficient manner, claiming a second place tie at the Buick Open and six other Top 10s. One only needs to look above at the “Key Stats” title to understand the secret to his success on the PGA Tour.

20. David Toms

2009 Tournaments: 27    Cuts Made: 21   Wins: 0          Top 10:7       Top 25: 13

2009 FedEx Standing: 19th            2010 Projected Finish: 20th

Key Stats: 69.76 Scoring Average (7th)

Grab the Bag: St. Jude’s Classic

Leave in the Clubhouse: U.S. Open, British Open

Summary/Strategy: Would it surprise you if we told you that Toms was currently ranked seventh in ALL-TIME career earnings? After all he has only won 12 titles in his long career. Consistency is the name of the game, and other than an injury-plagued year in 2008 ($788,000 in earnings, one Top 10) Toms has been a solid, if not flashy, fantasy golf performer. 2009 saw him claim three second place ties and four other Top 10s, good enough for over $3.0 million. While some might count out the more famous “Tiger,” don’t count this (LSU) Tiger out yet.

21. Jerry Kelly

2009 Tournaments: 26    Cuts Made: 19   Wins: 1          Top 10: 6      Top 25:11

2009 FedEx Standing: 22nd            2010 Projected Finish: 21st

Key Stats: 1.748 Putting Average (29th), 56.38% Sand Save Percentage (30th)

Grab the Bag: Zurich Classic of New Orleans, second tier events

Leave in the Clubhouse: Events in hot, humid weather

Summary/Strategy: Gritty gutty Jerry Kelly continues to outperform expectations year-after-year. The former minor league hockey player won his first event in over five years this past season when he was victorious at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Kelly goes the way of his putting, and in 2009 Jerry was rolling the rock well above the tour average (29th ranked in Putting Average). Just keep in the back of your mind that Kelly tends to be prone to heat-related symptoms in extremely hot, humid weather.

22. Brian Gay

2009 Tournaments: 27    Cuts Made: 21   Wins: 2          Top 10:4       Top 25: 8

2009 FedEx Standing: 21st            2010 Projected Finish: 22nd

Key Stats: 72.24% Driving Accuracy (6th)

Grab the Bag: Verizon Hertitage, St. Jude’s Classic, Mayakoba Classic

Leave in the Clubhouse: Majors (Three missed cuts in 2009)

Summary/Strategy: Gay had a breakout 2009, winning two events (St. Judes, Verizon Heritage) and claiming two other Top 10s during the season. The frustrating thing with Brian from a fantasy golf perspective is that most of his earnings came from those two victories. Another interesting tidbit – despite the great driving accuracy Gay missed the cut in the three majors he played. This is odd, as driving accuracy is of upmost importance during major championships due to the juicy rough and extreme course setups. Gay is a solid bet to win $2.0 million in 2010, but expecting two wins again might be a stretch.

23. Hunter Mahan

2009 Tournaments: 25    Cuts Made: 24   Wins: 0          Top 10:6       Top 25: 16

2009 FedEx Standing: 27th            2010 Projected Finish: 23rd

Key Stats: 4.11 Birdie Average (2nd), All-Around ranking (4th)

Grab the Bag: AT&T National, 2007 Travelers Championship

Leave in the Clubhouse: British Open

Summary/Strategy: Mahan had a slightly disappointing 2009 based on expert predictions, but this was only due to the fact that he didn’t win an event outright. His only missed cut (British Open) was the event after his narrow loss at the AT&T National, and we love his 16 Top 25 finishes over the course of the season. Mahan will win and win big in the future – his second ranked Birdie Average and fourth ranked All-Around ranking is indication that this past season was an aberration and that he just needs to put it all together over the course of a four-day period. Start Mahan in the Travelers – his lone victory on tour was at the 2007 Travelers and he also finished tied-fourth in the same event in 2009.

24. Luke Donald

2009 Tournaments: 21    Cuts Made: 19   Wins: 0          Top 10: 6      Top 25: 13

2009 FedEx Standing: 30th            2010 Projected Finish: 24th

Key Stats: 64.43% Sand Saves (1st), 28.11 Putts Per Round (4th)

Grab the Bag: Honda Classic, British Open

Leave in the Clubhouse: Fall Finish

Summary/Strategy: Donald is another of the tour elite that slumped a bit in 2009, with no wins and only six Top 10s during the course of the year. The art major at Northwestern is the Picasso of the Sand Save – he ranked first in that statistic for the entire PGA Tour. Donald’s last PGA win was at the 2006 Honda Classic, which is surprising based on the fact that he has 36 career PGA Top 10s.

25. Stewart Cink

2009 Tournaments: 22    Cuts Made: 17   Wins: 1          Top 10: 4      Top 25: 8

2009 FedEx Standing: 28th            2010 Projected Finish: 25th

Key Stats: 294.7 Driving Distance (39th)

Grab the Bag: British Open, WGC Accenture Match Play Championship

Leave in the Clubhouse: Masters Tournament

Summary/Strategy: Cink was in a strange way vilified for his sudden death victory over legendary Tom Watson at the 2009 British Open. This is ironic as he is known throughout the PGA as one of the nicest players on the circuit. Hopefully the Claret Jug heals his wounded feelings and this will be long forgotten while his enjoys the five-year exemption that the victory in the major championship affords.