| Ranking the Top 20 first basemen and a few sleepers. |
First base is usually one of the deepest positions in fantasy and this year is no different. In fact, the number of 1B-eligible players with starter-worthy production is staggering. For that reason alone, Albert Pujols is not a sure-fire number one pick in classic 12x12 leagues.
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Taking Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, or Chase Utley ahead of Albert Pujols is not absurd. Photo Credit: Rafael Amado Deras |
Pujols is undeniably the greatest offensive talent in the sport. Yet with so many first base options to choose from, fantasy owners should not shy away from taking Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, or even Chase Utley with the first pick. If you draft Hanley or A-Rod with the first pick, and decide to roll with a first baseman in the next round, you will end up with sick production from that combo. The person who takes Pujols? By the time they are on the clock again in 12-team leagues, the best 3B and SS available are someone on the level of Ryan Zimmerman and Derek Jeter.
This isn’t meant to slander Pujols. The guy is capable of carrying a fantasy team and it wouldn't be a surprise if he came out and bashed 60 home runs. He's that great. When there's a position so rich in talent, you have to weigh your options. Why spend your top pick on Pujols when the owner who drafts Ramirez will probably get more fantasy value from his SS/1B combo than you will?
Now if you'll excuse me, I have to build a moat around my home to protect against the pitchfork and torch wielding mob of Pujols enthusiasts who will no doubt be storming my crib after reading this.
TOP 20
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
Is there really any need to explain this? Nope.
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
Last season, he enjoyed a career-best 56.0 balls in-play percentage (IP%). If he can maintain that clip, he should keep his average in the .270-.280 range. The one caveat with Howard is his career numbers in the first half (.255 batting average/.342 on-base percentage/.537 slugging percentage). He's a beast in the second-half, though (.302 BA/.407 OBP/.633 SLG), and would be a 55 HRs/150 RBIs threat if he ever killed it over an entire season.
3. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers
Since 2004, he's averaged 33 home runs, 115 runs batted in, and 98 runs with a .315 BA/.388 OBP/.548 SLG line. Cabrera is now getting treatment for alcohol abuse, so it's plausible that he could be more focused this year. He'll be 27 in April and a career-best season is in play.
4. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
Fielder was third in all of baseball with a .420 weighted on-base average (wOBA) last year, behind only Pujols and Joe Mauer. Oh yeah, and he's only 25.
5. Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
There's something to be said for his consistency (at least 30 HRs and 105 RBIs in the last six years). A full season of hitting in front of Alex Rodriguez could help end his early season doldrums (.312 BA/.393 OBP/.600 SLG after A-Rod joined the lineup on May 8th last year).
6. Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
The former AL MVP missed time late last season with a stress fracture in his back and had right hand surgery in October. However, the .371 wOBA he posted was the second-best mark of his career and he's only 28.
7. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
The 25 HRs and 84 RBIs last year don't tell the whole story. He was top five in the National League in BA (.322), OBP (.414), and SLG (.567). Votto Loco also posted a .245 isolated power (ISO) mark and 12.9 walk percentage (BB%). He's on the cusp of being an elite fantasy option.
8. Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks
Far more valuable as a third baseman, though his steals play nicely at first. Reynolds should have no problem topping 30 HRs, but holes in his swing (league leader in Ks last two years) could lead to pitchers making adjustments in 2010.
9. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
Moved to the cleanup spot upon Victor Martinez's arrival and Youkilis did his thing there (.314 BA/.417 OBP/.526 SLG). He will have to shoulder more of the offensive load with Jason Bay gone, and the gritty Youkilis possesses the mind-set necessary to handle a bigger role. Third base eligibility is icing on the cake.
10. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres
Would be higher on this list if he didn't play in San Diego's expansive home field (.795 career-OPS at Petco Park compared to .935 on the road). Second in baseball in intentional walks (22) last year and that number could go up as San Diego has done little to address their inept offense.
11. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants
He's only 23, but Sandoval is already a fantasy darling. Few players have the ability to bat over .320 while also hitting for power (22 HRs in 403 at-bats from June to September). The fact that you can slot him in at third base makes him even more valuable.
12. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Berkman compiled just 25 HRs, 80 RBIs, and 73 runs last year, but his peripherals were right in line with typical Fat Elvis production (.235 ISO, .386 wOBA, and 17.2 BB%). Age is a concern (34), but Berkman should provide dynamite value if he falls past the fifth round.
13. Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels
Morales abused the ball in the second-half (.330 BA/.375 OBP/.614 SLG, 19 HRs, 59 RBIs in 267 at-bats). He needs to improve his walk rate (7.4 BB% in 2009), but has legit raw power (.263 ISO last year).
14. Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
Told you first base was deep. Power came back last season (.273 ISO) and he’s entering a walk year in 2010. Buyer beware: 2009 marked just the third time Lee has topped the .900 OPS mark and was only the second campaign in which he posted an wOBA over .400.
15. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays
In 2009, Pena topped the .300 ISO mark for the second time in three years. Rays lineup should bounce back in 2010, which will help his numbers.
16. Adam Dunn, Washington Nationals
In 2009, Dunn failed to reach 40 HRs for the first time in six years, though he still provided ample pop (38 HRs and 105 RBIs). The .267 BA was a nice surprise, but it came attached to a career-high .326 batting average on balls in-play (BABIP). He's a two-category player for the most part, but you could do a lot worse if you're in need of power.
17. Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
Butler flashed some of his developing power last year by hitting 21 homers and raising his ISO to .191. Though he tends to be overvalued by many fantasy owners, he could make good on his promise this year.
18. Chris Davis, Texas Rangers
While he wasted a starting opportunity last year and has Justin Smoak lurking in the shadows, he’s still a 50 HR threat. Keep in mind that his strikeout percentage (K%) went down every month, falling to a not-so-atrocious (at least for Davis) 26% in September.
19. Adam LaRoche, Arizona Diamondbacks
LaRoche had his usual solid second-half again last year (career .300 BA/.363 OBP/.546 SLG after the All-Star break). The Diamondbacks are a young but intriguing offense, so it's not out of the question that LaRoche could enjoy a breakout campaign this season.
20. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
Konerko proved he still has something left in the tank with a 28 HRs/88 RBIs season in 2009. The White Sox have some issues in their lineup, but if their talented bats can stay healthy and produce, Konerko should be a solid option in 2010. That being said, his age (34 in March) and decreased walk rate (9.3 BB% last year) are legitimate concerns.
Jeepers Sleepers
Troy Glaus, Atlanta Braves
Glaus battled through back and shoulder injuries last year, but if he can stay on the field, he could be a sneaky source of power for fantasy owners. Remember, he hit 27 HRs and drove in 99 RBIs in 2008, so there's reason to believe he can still be a productive fantasy asset.
Jake Fox, Oakland Athletics
Fox has a shot at making the Opening Day lineup since the offensively inept Daric Barton currently mans first for Oakland. In 2009, Fox stroked 11 homers in 216 at-bats with the Cubs, so it's not like his beastly Triple-A line (.409 BA/.495 OBP/.841 SLG in 164 at-bats last year) is strictly the result of playing in the hitter-friendly PCL.
Chris Carter, Oakland Athletics
Don't sleep on Carter. If the Athletics decide Barton or Fox are not the answer at first, the right-handed Carter could steal the job. In 490 Double-A at-bats last year, he belted 24 HRs and drove in 108 RBIs (one year after going 39/104 at Single-A). He's never had a season ISO lower than .224 and could be a solid power option, even at age 23. Just be aware that he strikes out a lot and will likely have an Adam Dunn-like batting average when he first hits the bigs.
Ike Davis, New York Mets
Davis makes this list mostly because Daniel Murphy is currently the top candidate to see the majority of at-bats at first. Davis is only 22, but he looks on his way to becoming a big bopper in the majors. Posting a .256 ISO and .426 wOBA upon his promotion to Double-A last year, Davis opened plenty of eyes in the Mets organization. Perhaps that is why they haven’t gone out and signed a capable major-league first baseman. Or maybe the Mets brass is still delusional and thinks Murphy actually has a career as an MLB regular? Either way, expect to see Davis up at some point in 2010.
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