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FANTASY BASEBALL: Positional Previews: Third Base Print
Written by Brad Rysz, RotoExperts.com Associate Editor   
Brad Rysz takes an in-depth look at the third base position for the 2010 season.

When it comes to the third base position, power sells. There isn't as much depth as first base, but you are still hoping to snag a starting three-bagger that can rack up the homers and capitalize when there are a few ducks on the pond. Some consider third a "thin" position, though that might be slightly overplayed. According to Mock Draft Central, here are the number of players for each infield position that have an Average Draft Position (ADP) inside the Top 100

2009 was a tumultuous year for A-Rod, but he proved he's back as one of third base's Top Three. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

1B: 14
2B: 9
3B: 10
SS: 5

So, not as deep as first, but there are plenty of third baseman that fantasy owners will target early in the draft. Three of them, in fact, are likely to go in the first round. Enough talk. Let's break down the position and place them into tiers for the upcoming season.

 

TIER ONE: Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY), Evan Longoria (3B, TAM), David Wright (3B, NYM)
When it comes to the hot corner, these three hold more power than Elin Nordegren. A-Rod shook off a bum hamstring and a steroid admission to reclaim his status as one of fantasy's top superstars. In most drafts, he's the third player selected behind Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez.  Rodriguez's Big Apple counterpart, Wright, saw a steep decline in his power numbers last year, possibly due to the pitcher-friendly dimensions of the new Citi Field. Fear not, as Wright still delivers a .300 average and plus speed for a three-bagger. A realistic expectation would be something between his career norms and last year, which would break down to about a .310 avg., 25 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R and 25 SB. This leaves the The Future, Evan Longoria. Not only does Longoria sit atop a pedestal on my Man-Crush Island, but the 24-year-old is now only two years deep in MLB experience and is already averaging 30/100. His ADP sits at 10.7, but I've seen Longo go as early as fifth. Expect the average to rise as Longoria becomes more patient.

TIER TWO: Mark Reynolds (3B, ARI), Ryan Zimmerman (3B, WAS), Pablo Sandoval (3B/1B, SFO), Kevin Youkilis (3B/1B, BOS)
If you can't get your hands on any of the studs in Tier One, you can't go wrong with anyone in this crew. They won't come without flaws, but you will have the luxury of waiting until the third or fourth round to grab them. Reynolds may be the biggest question mark in all of fantasy baseball this season. At quick glance, his numbers from last year were positively remarkable. To his credit, the 26-year-old has improved his power and stolen base numbers for three straight seasons. Owners may be weary of his extraordinary strikeout numbers and subpar average, but contributing in four out of five major root categories isn't bad. Typically going in the second round, Reynolds would be a nice get in the third. Many owners will have the tough choice of deciding between Zimmerman or Sandoval. ZImmerman surpassed 30 homers and 100 RBIs/runs last season and is finally getting some consistency around him in the middle of the lineup. Sandoval broke onto the scene in '09 and proved to be one of fantasy's top average guys. With some power to boot, Kung Fu Panda has nice multi-position eligibility (loss of catcher hurts) and should be highly sought after starting as early as the late third round. The difference in runs scored puts Zimmerman ahead of Sandoval in my book. Like Sandoval, Youkilis also has 1B and 3B eligibility. While his upside isn't as high as any of the others in this tier, Youkilis brings a consistency that any owner can appreciate.

TIER THREE: Aramis Ramirez (3B, CHC), Chone Figgins (3B, SEA), Michael Young (3B, TEX), Gordon Beckham (3B, CHW)
The third tier is when we begin to see players who typically struggle in at least two categories or come with a major concern. Ramirez is coming off a serious shoulder injury and has yet to put up the monster year the fantasy world has been anxiously awaiting. Figgins travels up the coast to the Pacific Northwest where his speed is valuable, but his loss of position eligibility and lack of any power is concerning. Ramirez and Figgins can be had in the fifth or sixth round. Young also loses eligibility (SS), but has set a standard that owners can rely on. Moderate power and a high average have become a staple of Young's diet. Beckham is a rising star and will gain 2B status early in the season. If drafting Beckham, do it with the intention of playing him at second. Young and Beckham are being drafted somewhere between rounds seven and nine.

TIER FOUR: Chipper Jones (3B, ATL), Ian Stewart (3B/2B, COL)
Jhonny Peralta (3B/SS, CLE), Adrian Beltre (3B, BOS)
The dropoff from Tier Three to Tier Four can be likened to the difference between Caddyshack and Caddyshack II. When healthy, Chipper is an A-list star who combines high average with top-notch power. Problem is, he has played as many 162-game seasons in his 16-year career as the total number of supermodels I've dated. Zero. In fact, Jones hasn't played over 150 since the 2003 season. At age 37, Chipper is a player fantasy owners just can't afford to trust. Stewart showed some nice power potential last year, but his .228 average was simply putrid. He can be played at second, which is a positive. While Jones and Stewart are gone by the 10th or 11th round, you can wait until the 15th to grab these next two. Peralta struggled with his move to third last season, mashing only 11 homers with a .254 average, but at his ADP (215.4), 83 RBIs are respectable from both the 3B and SS position. A slight increase in production is almost a guarantee. Beltre spent much of 2009 on the DL, but now finds himself in Beantown amongst a formidable lineup. Still, since his 48/121 season in '04, Beltre hasn't topped 26 homers or 99 RBI. His 2007 line may actually be a good barometer: .276 avg, 87 R, 26 HR, 99 RBI, 14 SB. Beltre can be considered a steal if available after the 16th round.

TIER FIVE: Mark DeRosa (3B/1B/OF, SFO), Brandon Inge (3B, DET), Chris Davis (3B/1B, TEX), Casey McGehee (3B/2B, MIL), Mark Teahen (3B/1B/OF, CHW)
Consider this the tier where you can fill all your multi-positional dreams. With apologies to Davis, the rest of this tier has players who will consistently fill the stat column with mediocre, but usable, numbers. DeRosa should find regular playing time with the Giants and put up his usual stats. Inge loses catcher eligibility, which stings, but he's still a 30-homer threat. McGehee was one of last season's top surprises, which means his performance this year is anything but a guarantee. Still, he showed some consistency and is worth taking a chance on. Teahen finds himself on the Southside of Chicago where he has a nice opportunity to be a legit sleeper. Davis has immense power, but hasn't been able to translate any other facet of his game to the major league level. While 30 homers are almost a lock, can you put up with a .240 average and no speed? Your best bet is to take these guys as backups and know that you have someone reliable if your starter goes down.

TIER SIX: Troy Glaus (3B, ATL), Scott Rolen (3B, CIN), Alex Gordon (3B, KAN), Pedro Feliz (3B, HOU), Casey Blake (3B, LAD), Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B, OAK), Martin Prado (3B/2B/1B)
Ah, the aging veteran. Remember For Love of the Game; Billy Chapel throwing one more gem before he rides off into the sunset? If you haven't, check it out, solid flick. Glaus, Rolen, Feliz and Blake are all at least 33, but still have the potential to produce. Glaus was limited to 14 games last year, but the Braves felt he was healthy enough to sign. He's a nice power bat at the hot corner, but he hasn't hit above .265 since 2000. I'd rather take the chance on someone like Chris Davis. Rolen had his share of injuries last season, but managed to hit .305 playing for the Blue Jays and Reds. Considering his injury history and faltering power, Rolen is a risk. Gordon has been a bust through three seasons, and it's becoming quite apparent that he may never live up to the hype. If you can stash him away in keeper or dynasty leagues, feel free, but don't count on him as your starter. Feliz heads to Houston where he should see plenty of playing time after knocking in 82 runs for the Phillies in '09. He's a safe backup. Blake will continue to man third for the Dodgers and be a reliable spot-start/utility player for fantasy teams. Kouzmanoff gets a fresh start in Oakland, but will have veteran Eric Chavez there to snag playing time. Proceed with caution. Prado had a breakout season, but is more valuable as a second baseman considering his lack of power.

TIER SEVEN: Joe Crede (3B, FA), Andy LaRoche (3B, PIT), Garrett Atkins (3B/1B, BAL), Edwin Encarnacion (3B, TOR), Emilio Bonifacio (3B/SS/OF), Chase Headley (3B/OF, SD)
Tier Seven has plenty of upside, but bust potential all the same. These players are likely to go undrafted in mixed leagues. Monitor them on the wire for the first few weeks. Crede has the pedigree, but hasn't had a noteworthy season since 2006. He's also unemployed at the moment. LaRoche finally got regular playing time last season, but only managed to hit .258. A career .230 hitter in 840 at-bats and playing on a bad team, LaRoche shouldn't be targeted until he proves he can hit .270. Atkins surprising downfall continued last season as he got ousted for Ian Stewart after hitting .228. He will get a chance in Baltimore, but there isn't much hope that he can return to form. Encarnacion gets a lot of unwarranted love for someone who's never topped 26 HR or 76 RBIs. He's also a career .260 hitter. At age 26, there is room for improvement. Don't draft him, but don't be afraid to pick him up if he starts off hot. Bonifacio started out blazing last season and became universally owned after stealing three bases in the season opener. He finished with a respectable 21 steals, but lost playing time late in the year after hitting .232 post-break. Headley made strides in his first full season, but hitting in PetCo Park can ruin a fantasy career. His 10 stolen bases and 31 doubles from '09 are a nice sign of things to come. Probably a year away from fantasy relevance, Headley certainly has potential.

TIER EIGHT: Bill Hall (3B/OF, BOS), Jake Fox (3B/OF, OAK), Eric Chavez (3B, OAK), Brett Wallace (3B, TOR), Mat Gamel (3B, MIL), Josh Fields (3B, KAN), Ty Wigginton (3B/1B, BAL), Melvin Mora (3B, FA)
Players in our final tier aren't likely to make much of a fantasy impact in 2010, but, due to talent level or opportunity, may find themselves on a fantasy roster or two. Hall finds himself in a nice situation in Boston, but isn't likely to be much of a factor unless an injury forces him into action. Fox has some power and has a chance to flash that potential if he gets a regular DH spot. With Jack Cust back for another year, that may be wishful thinking. You couldn't pay me to roster Chavez. The guy has played 121 games combined the last three seasons and is now 32. He's done. Wallace has a bright future, but will be learning a new position. Look for a mid-season call-up and pounce. Gamel needs to improve his defense before he becomes a fantasy (and Brewer) regular. Keep him in mind for 2011. Fields flaked out for the Sox, but has some nice power in his bat. Like most guys in this tier, he's playing second fiddle to someone else to start the year. Wigginton and Atkins will be an interesting platoon to watch in Baltimore. I'd make the easy decision and avoid both. After revitalizing his career in the second half of '08, Mora regressed last season and is now in search of a job. No thanks.

Follow Brad on Twitter: http://twitter.com/bradrysz  

Think someone is ranked in the wrong tier? Send Brad your questions, comments or concerns at brysz@rotoexperts.com.


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