Atlanta- The Braves have been struggling to get Chris Johnson’s bat into the lineup as the right handed part of their 3B platoon.  He’ll get a few this week, but maybe not as many as you’d hope with Evan Gattis still hot.

RotoExperts Mike Cardano (@MikeCardano) and Pat Mayo (@ThePME) talk about hitters Daniel Murphy, Josh Rutledge, Jay Bruce, David Ortiz, Jedd Gyorko and Alex Rios all who had a great Week 8 – looking at their year to date and their prospects going forward.

The new RotoExperts Daily Clubhouse has all you need to win big every night in Daily Fantasy Baseball – expert picks, tools to identify hot and bargain players, plus official lineups and podcasts/radio shows just prior to game time! Don’t set your lineups without visiting the Daily Clubhouse first. Then set your winning rosters on DraftKings.

Liriano represents what you might call my Fantasy Baseball “drug of choice.” After owning him during his breakout ’06 campaign I was hooked. I wasn’t able to get my hands on him after his return from Tommy John surgery in ’08, but grabbed him on a bunch of teams heading into ’09. Needless to say, most of those teams behaved much like junkies. They wallowed around in the gutter.I swore off Liriano until last season. His strong spring had me jonesing for another fix. I grabbed him late, after a disappointing ’11, only to have him post another pathetic campaign. Low and behold he is back in the limelight. He has fooled me twice; the question now is: will he make it three times?

First let’s start with who he has faced; the Mets, Brewers and Cubs. These teams rank 23^rd, 18^th and 24^th in scoring while also ranking in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts. So, quality of opponent definitely comes into play here. Another factor to take into consideration is his move to the NL. Many of these guys haven’t even faced Liriano and his wicked slider yet, so he is definitely at an advantage.

Now for the good – so far he is throwing first pitch strikes 56.6 percent of the time. Not a stellar number, but above his career average. He is generating swinging strikes at a 17.2 percent clip. To put that into perspective, that number is highest among any starting pitcher and fourth best in the league. The other nice number is the 3.0 walks per nine innings he has posted. Every season he has struggled that number has been above 4.28.

So what do I expect moving forward? Success in the near term, with a few rough outings mixed in against some better hitting squads. It will take the league a bit of time to dial him in, but I expect it to happen in late July/early August as he approaches 20 starts. My advice, if you own him, is to hold tight for a month and then deal him. If he is on your waiver wire, grab him now while he is hot and employ the above strategy to trade for a player you can use prior to your leagues trading deadline.

Observation

Last season, Cliff Lee was one of the unluckiest players in baseball. Over 30 starts he posted a 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.83 K/9, yet somehow only managed to win six games. This season he has won five of his first 10 starts, but hasn’t been nearly as good as he was last season. To the common fan’s eye, everything looks good. He has a 2.48 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The underlying stats are a point of concern though, and suggest to me that he is in for a bump upward in both stats. For starters, his K/9 is down to 6.81. While a few nice games can easily bump that number up, I don’t see it coming. The average velocity of his fastball is down 1.3 MPH from last season and opposing hitters are swinging and missing just 7.7 percent of his offerings, which ranks him 69^th among qualified starters. For a guy turning 35 in August with 1,925 career innings under his belt, we may very well be seeing the beginning of his downfall. Hopefully, it’s a slow fall from grace.

Speculation

Jered Weaver appears set to return to the Angels rotation early next week against the Dodgers. He actually broke his non-throwing elbow dodging a line drive off the bat of Mitch Moreland on April 7. Talk about your freak injuries right? Prior to his injury he carried a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over his first 11 innings pitched. Had he suffered an injury to his throwing arm I would be a little more encouraged, but the fact is there was nothing wrong there and he was averaging just 85.5 MPH on his fastball. There are 375 pitchers who have thrown at least 10 innings this season, Weaver ranks 368 and down 2.3 MPH from last season. He has never been an overpowering guy, but this rapid decline is worrisome. I predicted him as a bust to start the season and continue to stand by that prediction. He needs to pitch nearly flawless every time out to put up numbers like we are used to seeing from him.

Revelation


The Indians Justin Masterson has teased us in years past. Back in 2011, he appeared to turn the corner as a pitcher, posting a 3.21 ERA over 216 innings, only to fall back to Earth last season. This year, however, he looks like a totally different pitcher. His secret so far has been his slider, which has been downright filthy. Last season, he struck out a career-high 159 batters. This year, he is on pace to punch out 256. His bug-a-boo throughout his career has been left handed hitters, who have hit .292 against him and posted a .358 OBP over the last three seasons. This year, those numbers sit at .226 and .319 respectively. This is obviously the key to his success this season, and the use of the slider against them has been the key. His breakout looks legit, folks. I have traded for him in a few leagues and anticipate a career season across the board.

Observation

Josh Willingham went yard twice on Thursday night against the Tigers, giving him eight long balls on the season. Unfortunately, that has come with a .212 batting average. For his career he is a .259 hitter. He also has never hit below .246 in a season in which he played at least 100 games. His rough start is curious. He is striking out in a career high 26.9 percent of his plate appearances, but at the same time walking in a career best 15.8 percent of them. He is averaging a career high 4.35 pitches per plate appearance as well. I see a combination of poor luck (.253 batting average on balls in play) combined with being a little off. His line drive percentage is at a career low 12.1 percent while his pop-ups stand at 25.0 percent. For his career, those numbers are 18.8 and 12.8 percent respectively. Now that he is showing signs of life expect these numbers to stabilize, making him a fantastic buy low candidate to grab.

Speculation

Cards rookie Shelby Miller has been fantastic so far this season. Over his first nine starts he has a 1.74 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.79. His weapon of choice has been the fastball, which he has thrown a whopping 74.8 percent of the time. Only Bartolo Colon and Lance Lynn have thrown a higher percentage. Heading into this season his minor league numbers suggested he had the ability to be a front line starter. His 11.1 K/9 over 383.2 innings screamed it, in fact. My worry here though, is his ability to finish out the season. He has never thrown more than 150.1 innings in a season. This year he is on pace for 201, just in the regular season. With the Cards looking like they are going to be right in the thick of the pennant race, I just don’t see them skipping him in order to keep him fresh as the season rolls along. Because of this I feel a fade coming, most likely sometime in August as he reaches those uncharted territories. If you own him in a re-draft league you would be best served dealing him prior to the All-Star break because of this.

Revelation

Success in Fantasy baseball relies heavily on knowing when to buy low and sell high on the trade market. Now that we are past the quarter mark in the season, trading a guy while his value is at its season high for something you know your team can use is paramount. One guy I am selling if I own him is Joe Mauer. For his career, he is a .324 hitter, so when people see his .339 average there really aren’t any red flags that go up. I, however, see that his BABIP is at an unsustainable .433 mark. While he is making solid contact, Mauer is also swinging and missing more pitches than at any point of his career (6.9 percent) while also seeing a drop in contact percentage to a career low 82.2. All of these factors signal a likely drop in his precious batting average in the near future. Trade him off now before the fall starts and thank me later for recommending it.

*All statistics include the games of Thursday, May 23.

The new RotoExperts Daily Clubhouse has all you need to win big every night in Daily Fantasy Baseball – expert picks, tools to identify hot and bargain players, plus official lineups and podcasts/radio shows just prior to game time! Don’t set your lineups without visiting the Daily Clubhouse first. Then set your winning rosters on DraftKings.

The doubleheaders that used to be the highlight of Major League Baseball’s schedule on Memorial Day have given way to the onset of the annual Interleague Series between AL and NL rivals; both actual and fabricated. With multiple matchups for the first time in this season where we have interleague play every night, we’re moving our Designated Hitter section to the top of the column. Suffice to say, there will be a lot of daily activity as owners add and drop designated hitters according to the ballpark in which they’re playing. What you need to know, especially you weekly players, is that this year’s version of Bud Selig, er, interleague play is just a little different. Each team will play four such games this week, two at home and two on the road, so you need to be on top of those National Leaguers who may get at bats and the AL’ers that will forfeit theirs. In a weekly league, where lineups are set for the week, you’ll need to decide whether your guy produces well enough to withstand two dead days.  Good luck.

STUDS
The happiest guys in Fantasy Baseball over the last two weeks have been those that own Jay Bruce. Always a streaky hitter, he’s becoming a fixture on the Studs list as he continues to tear the cover off of the ball. He’ll face Cleveland and Pittsburgh this week, two teams against whom he’s got decent, if not spectacular, numbers. We’re not nearly as interested in his stats over the last three years as we are over the last three weeks. Continue to let Bruce carry your squad.

* To have your question answered by Mike for the world to see, send him an email or tweet and you might get lucky…

The new RotoExperts Daily Clubhouse has all you need to win big every night in Daily Fantasy Baseball – expert picks, tools to identify hot and bargain players, plus official lineups and podcasts/radio shows just prior to game time! Don’t set your lineups without visiting the Daily Clubhouse first. Then set your winning rosters on DraftKings.

San Francisco 49ers

In the draft, the 49ers picked tight end Vance McDonald, running back Marcus Lattimore and wide receivers A.J. Jenkins and Quinton Patton. McDonald will be behind Vernon Davis on the depth chart and will play the role that Delanie Walker played last year. McDonald doesn’t appear to challenge Davis for the starting role. He’s more of a blocking tight end as the criticism is that his hands aren’t as good as a top pass-catching tight end. As for Lattimore, it is likely that he won’t play in 2013 as he heals from the gruesome knee injury he suffered last season. The biggest news for the 49ers is the injury to Michael Crabtree in practice. He tore his Achilles’ tendon and underwent surgery already. The timetable on the injury is at least six months, so don’t look for Crabtree to make much of an impact, if any, this year. His injury boosts Anquan Boldin’s value and makes the rookie WRs slightly more intriguing. Colin Kaepernick’s value takes a hit and it does help Frank Gore and the running game a bit as well.  With Mario Manningham coming off ACL surgery as well, the wide receiver corps needs some work. Both rookies were not expected to make much of an impact, but one of them will likely see plenty of playing time. Look at Jenkins over Patton as a late-round pick.

With the addition of rookie DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Johnson gains Fantasy value. Photo Credit: AJ Guel Photography

Seattle Seahawks

One of the top RB picks, Christine Michael, went to Seattle in the draft this year. This says more about Robert Turbin than Marshawn Lynch. Don’t downgrade Lynch at all based on this move. Rather, it is possible that the Seahawks weren’t thrilled with Lynch’s backup and wanted a stronger reliever for Lynch. Michael is arguably a better runner than Turbin, although it will see if that translates to the NFL. Turbin did look good last year, and the job is his to lose for now. Chris Harper was also drafted as a wide receiver that will sit on the depth chart behind Golden Tate. Tate is already the No. 3 receiver behind Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice, so don’t look for Harper to make a Fantasy impact this season.

Washington Redskins

Behind Fred Davis and Logan Paulsen on the depth chart is now Jordan Reed, the tight end the Redskins drafted in the third round. Davis tore his Achilles’ in Week 7 of last season and has been recovering since. He may begin the season on the PUP list, but he will eventually play. With 325 receiving yards in just seven games, he was on pace to exceed his 2011 numbers. The Redskins are still sticking with him, giving him another chance to prove that he can stay healthy and not get suspended. Reed is likely someone that will make a difference in two years or so. Remember the name in standard leagues, and dynasty leagues may want to take a chance on him in a late round.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have come out and said that the tight end they drafted, Travis Kelce, will be competing for the starting job. Whether that says something about Kelce or about the poor tight ends on the roster is the question. Tony Moeaki hasn’t been able to stay healthy and will likely be playing his last season for Kansas City. The Chiefs would rather see what they have in Kelce as they know what they have in Moeaki. The only other tight end is newly acquired Anthony Fasano. Fasano was known for his blocking ability and his red zone receptions. If Kelce can prove that he can block as well as Fasano, the job just might be his. If you were thinking of drafting Fasano as your tight end (for some reason), rethink that. Watch to see how Kelce develops and he might be an option for teams that use two tight ends.

New England Patriots

When the Patriots decided to cut all of their receivers, they realized they needed to fill that spot in the draft. They selected Aaron Dobson in the second round. Dobson will likely be the starting “X” receiver in the Patriots offense. He’s fast and if he can win Tom Brady’s trust, he’ll succeed as a receiver. The Patriots throw the ball often, so there are receptions to go around. With the health of their tight ends in question, someone will need to catch the ball. Danny Amendola will be the top guy, but with double coverage or an injury, the field needs to be open for someone else. Dynasty leagues certainly want to draft Dobson, but standard leagues might be considering him as well. He doesn’t hurt Amendola’s value, but he does have value himself.

Houston Texans

He doesn’t pose a threat to Andre Johnson, rather, the addition of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins actually helps Johnson. There is no other strong receiver on Houston’s roster, so they needed someone to help Matt Schaub and Johnson. Hopkins has been practicing opposite Johnson and it is likely that’s where he’ll end up playing. Hopkins may end up with some Fantasy value this year, but Houston’s offense revolves around Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, so anyone else isn’t likely to put up a lot of points. Hopkins may end up hurting the value of Owen Daniels more than anyone else.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The running quarterback from the University of Michigan, Denard Robinson, entered the draft as a running back. The Jaguars took him and he may end up being an intriguing Fantasy play. He’ll line up in the wildcat. He may line up in the slot, and he’ll be a change-of-pace running back behind Maurice Jones-Drew. Dynasty leagues should keep an eye on him, but depending on what kind of eligibility he has, standard leagues may want to consider him as well. Watch to see what kind of role Robinson ends up playing as OTAs continue.

Oakland Raiders

While the impact of tight end Nick Kasa may not be much for current Oakland players, it may not be much for Fantasy owners. Kasa will likely be the starting tight end, but that’s because there isn’t much other talent on the roster. With Matt Flynn as the quarterback, the entire receiving corps is downgraded. The addition of Tyler Wilson may not help for this year. The Raiders as a whole are going to be lacking in Fantasy value this year outside of Darren McFadden (for the five games he plays in before he’s injured).

The new RotoExperts Daily Clubhouse has all you need to win big every night in Daily Fantasy Baseball – expert picks, tools to identify hot and bargain players, plus official lineups and podcasts/radio shows just prior to game time! Don’t set your lineups without visiting the Daily Clubhouse first. Then set your winning rosters on DraftKings.

The answer is, he is indeed for real, and will continue to produce good Fantasy returns, because Pittsburgh is the perfect fit for him. I had the chance to spend some time in the Pittsburgh clubhouse recently and there was indeed an air of anticipation of what Liriano could add to the pitching staff. Already under the tutelage/watch of Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage, one of the best in the biz, and some additional steering from A.J. Burnett, the Pirates’ hurlers can certainly continue to exceed some expectations.

In this week’s Scratching the Surface column, I put Patrick Corbin under the sabermetric microscope to try to determine the secret of his success this year. I guessed that his league-leading rate of throwing a strike on the first pitch (F-Strike%) of 71.4 percent was the biggest element behind is 7-0  record and 1.44 ERA. That percentage was just under 60 percent last season, so that one single change could be the “secret sauce” for Corbin.

I so I thought I should take a Deep Dive to try to find out.

ADAM ANSELL’S TOP 25 FOR CHARLOTTE

1.  Jimmie Johnson: Johnson finished fourth at Darlington for his third Top 5 finish in his last three Cup starts. In 23 starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Johnson has six wins (2003, 2004 sweep, 2005 sweep, 2009), 11 Top 5s, 15 Top 10s and three poles with an Average Finish of 11.4. He’s led at least one lap in 20 of his 23 starts. He’s qualified fourth-or-better 10 times. Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, Johnson leads all competitors in Driver Rating (111.7), Average Running Position (7.9), Laps in the Top 15 (4,932), Fastest Laps Run (544) and Average Green Flag Speed (176.653 mph). His Average Finish of 6.7 and 44-point lead on the field in the Cup standings is abnormally dominant for the normally dominant Johnson. He’s running as well as he ever has and Fantasy owners that can spare a Tiered/Grouping format start on the No. 48 should do so.

2.  Kasey Kahne: Kahne finished a middling 17^th at Darlington despite a 5.1 ARP. In 18 starts at CMS, Kahne has four wins (2006 sweep, 2008, 2012), seven Top 5s and 10 Top 10s with an Average Finish of 12.4. He led 96 laps in his May 2012 victory at the site. Kahne ranks third in DR (98.0) and in ARP (12.4). He has an Average Finish of 26.7 in his last three Cup starts and zero laps led in his last seven starts. But Charlotte is arguably his best track and this is the week Kahne turns it around. He will come at a very solid value in Tiered/Grouping formats.

Kasey Kahne eyes his second straight Coca-Cola 600 win. PHOTO CREDIT: NASCAR Media.

3.  Denny Hamlin: In his first full race since a broken vertebra, Hamlin finished second at Darlington while posting a solid 7.5 ARP. In 15 Charlotte starts, Hamlin has three Top 5s and eight Top 10s with an Average Finish of 14.1. He’s led at least one lap in six of his last seven starts. Hamlin ranks sixth in DR (92.1) and fifth in ARP (12.9). After a four-race absence, Hamlin dusted off those cobwebs in a hurry. He has four consecutive Top 5s at CMS and will extend that streak to five this weekend.

4.  Kyle Busch: Busch dominated at Darlington, leading 265 of 367 laps for a 1.4 ARP but a late miscue caused him to finish sixth. In 18 CMS starts, Busch has eight Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 15.3. He’s led at least 36 laps in five of his last six starts. Busch ranks second in DR (107.7), ARP (9.6), Laps in the Top 15 (4,565) and Average Green Flag Speed (176.527 mph). He leads all drivers in Laps Led (793) and Quality Passes (833). His slump of three straight 24^th-place-or-worse finishes is over and Fantasy owners can confidently roll Busch this weekend.

5.  Matt Kenseth: Kenseth won his third race of 2013 at Darlington, leading 17 laps with an ARP of 3.4. In 27 starts at Charlotte, Kenseth has two wins (2000, 2011), seven Top 5s and 14 Top 10s with an Average Finish of 14.2. He led 46 laps in his 2011 win. Kenseth ranks fourth in DR (94.4) and in ARP (14.8). He’s posted four-straight finishes of eighth of better (Average Finish of 4.3) and it seems the No. 20 shows up on a weekly basis with the best car on the track. Kenseth can be trusted in all formats.

6.  Carl Edwards: Edwards finished seventh at Darlington, giving him three-straight Top 10s. In 16 CMS starts, Edwards has five Top 5s and 10 Top 10s with an Average Finish of 12.0. He’s led at least one lap in three of his last five starts. Edwards ranks seventh in DR (89.0) and 10^th in ARP (15.4). The difference between Edwards in 2012 and 2013 is he’s able to salvage quality finishes out of mediocre races. He’s taken an ARP of 12.7 and turned that into an Average Finish of 5.3 over his last three starts. He’s a must-start in Tiered/Grouping formats.

7.  Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior finished ninth at Darlington, giving him two Top 10s in his last three Cup starts. In 26 starts at CMS, Earnhardt Jr. has five Top 5s, 11 Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 18.8. He’s led at least two laps in two of his last five starts. Earnhardt Jr. ranks 18^th in DR (78.8) and 25^th in ARP (20.2). Fantasy owners looking to play it safe and secure a high-probability Top 10 should look no further than the No. 88 ride at Charlotte.

8.  Kevin Harvick: Harvick finished fifth at Darlington. In 24 Charlotte starts, Harvick has one win (2011), two Top 5s and seven Top 10s with an Average Finish of 18.0. He’s led at least one lap in three of his last five starts. Harvick ranks 22^nd in DR (75.6) and 21^st in ARP (18.9). Outside of 42^nd (Daytona) and 40^th-place (Talladega) finishes at restrictor-plate tracks, Harvick hasn’t finished worse than 14^th in any race. Now that he’s started putting up Top 5s, the No. 29 is a great value play across the board.

9.  Greg Biffle: Biffle failed to record a Top 10 for the fourth-straight race with a 13^th-place finish at Darlington. In 20 starts at CMS, Biffle has five Top 5s, eight Top 10s and one pole with an Average Finish of 16.4. He’s led at least 50 laps in each of his last four starts. Biffle ranks fifth in DR (94.1) and seventh in ARP (13.9). He finished fourth in both Charlotte races in 2012 so I’m banking on The Biff using this race a spring board to bounce back into form.

10.  Jeff Gordon: Gordon tied a season-high with a third-place finish at Darlington. In 40 Charlotte starts, Gordon has five wins (1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2007), 16 Top 5s, 21 Top 10s and eight poles with an Average Finish of 15.7. He’s led at least two laps in six of his last seven starts. Gordon ranks 10^th in DR (87.3) and 12^th in ARP (15.9). He’s starting to round into form by showing that consistency that made him famous. Fantasy owners should consider Gordon a risk-reward option with a lot of value attached.

11.  Brad Keselowski: One Top 5 and one pole with an Average Finish of 15.7 in seven CMS starts. 83.2 DR.

12.  Mark Martin: Four wins (1992, 1995, 1998, 1999), 18 Top 5s, 24 Top 10s, two poles with an Average Finish of 16.6 in 56 Charlotte starts. 88.2 DR.

13.  Clint Bowyer: One win (2012), two Top 5s and four Top 10s with an Average Finish of 16.4 in 14 starts at CMS. 80.0 DR.

14.  Aric Almirola: One pole with an Average Finish of 14.0 in two appearances at CMS. 84.8 DR.

15.  Joey Logano: Two Top 5s and five Top 10s with an Average Finish of 10.1 in eight CMS starts. 88.4 DR.

16.  Jamie McMurray: 77.0 DR.

17.  Paul Menard: 64.0.

18.  Kurt Busch: 82.1.

19.  Martin Truex Jr.: 74.6.

20.  Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: 64.6.

21.  Tony Stewart

22.  Ryan Newman

23.  Marcos Ambrose

24.  Juan Pablo Montoya

25.  Jeff Burton

Value Village

1.  Regan Smith: Finished eighth in the May 2011 event at CMS.

2.  David Ragan: Finished second in the May 2011 race with an ARP of 7.0.

3.  Casey Mears: Won the May 2007 race with a DR of 110.8.

2013 NASCAR.com Fantasy Live Lineup for Charlotte (Salary Cap)

Jimmie Johnson $27.75

Kasey Kahne $25.25

Carl Edwards $24.25

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. $13.25

Regan Smith $ 9.50

Total: $100.00

The new RotoExperts Daily Clubhouse has all you need to win big every night in Daily Fantasy Baseball – expert picks, tools to identify hot and bargain players, plus official lineups and podcasts/radio shows just prior to game time! Don’t set your lineups without visiting the Daily Clubhouse first. Then set your winning rosters on DraftKings.