Carlos Beltran has hit .371 with eight homers and 21 RBIs over the last two weeks but he hasn’t been shown any love. The 35-year-old may have found this year’s version of the fountain of youth, otherwise known as the two-hole in the Cardinals lineup. With Rafael Furcal currently getting on-base at a .447 clip and a ton of protection behind him he is seeing plenty of hittable pitches. He may slow down as the season progresses, but from the looks of things right now it would be startling if he didn’t finish the year as a Top 20 outfielder.

Adam Jones decided to prove his career season last year was no joke, as he is off to a blazing start as well. He is currently on pace to hit over 40 home runs and looks like a lock to join the 20-20 club. At just 26, Fantasy owners who gobbled him up with a mid-round draft pick have laughed all the way to the bank as he has rewarded them with a serious return on investment.

Not everyone has had a wonderful opening to their season, though. The returns from injury by Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson have been brutal. Both find themselves in the bottom 10 among qualified starting pitchers in ERA. While that’s surprising, knowing they are joined by guys like Tim Lincecum and Josh Beckett makes one really scratch their head.

Hopefully you were fortunate enough to mix some of the great with what has turned out to be some of the awful. If not, just take some solace in the fact that we are still less than 25 percent into the season. There is still hope.

Observation

The Marlins’ Jose Reyesis having a quiet start to his first season with the team. He was hitting .261 without a home run, 16 runs, six RBIs and nine stolen bases through his first 156 plate appearances. Not awe-inspiring in the least, but there are signs pointing to the fact that he is due for a hot spell. For one, he is walking at a career high rate of 12.2 percent. That is a clear sign he isn’t pressing at the plate. Secondly, his BABIP is a super low .278. In my eyes there are two issues currently holding him back. First, he is hitting the ball on the ground 50 percent of the time. In doing so he obviously isn’t finding any holes, because with his speed he has the ability to beat out most non-routine grounders. Secondly, he  is he’s hitting just .150 against left-handers thus far. He hasn’t hit below .280 against them in a season since his rookie year. Years worth of data tell us things will get better here, so consider him a nice buy-low candidate.

The strikeouts are still coming, so there is hope for a turnaround from Minor. Photo Credit: Tate Nations

Speculation

This time of year, it’s all about finding value on the waiver wire. When doing so I tend to look for guys that have pitched better than the Fantasy numbers they are providing. Mike Minor happens to be one of them. He has a strikeout per nine innings (K/9) rate of 8.72 while walking a respectable 2.55 per nine. That isn’t to say he hasn’t been without issues; one is giving up the long ball. He had given up eight through his first seven starts. His other issue is with runners on base, and this is the one that makes me think he is dealing with either a mechanical issue or is tipping pitches. Opposing batters are hitting .426 against him with five homers and 25 RBIs in 54 at-bats with runners on base. He was lights out with runners on last season, so I expect him to start breaking down some film with Pitching Coach Roger McDowell and iron out the issue. As an owner I plan on holding until he does. 

Revelation

Every now and again it comes time to draw a line in the sand on a player and make a decision. I have officially decided Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t worth a roster spot in 12-team mixed leagues anymore. Since his move from Colorado to Cleveland at the trade deadline last season he has started 18 games. The sample size is enough to see he won’t be the same pitcher he was in the NL. He has posted a 5-6 record with a 5.90 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over 105.1 innings pitched. “Absolutely brutal” is the term that comes to mind when describing his performance. This season he has actually walked (30) more batters than he has struck out (24) while also seeing a dip in his fastball velocity of 1.5 MPH from last year. If you haven’t cut him already, obviously you need to do so. If you are in an AL-only league, try your best to package him up in a deal if you can.

Observation

Knowing you have your hands on a bomb waiting to explode isn’t a comfortable feeling. Jeremy Hellickson’s owners may not know it yet, but if they listen closely they can hear the ticking. A quick look at his peripheral numbers from this season reveals he is up to his old tricks. I included him in among my predictions for pitching busts in our draft kit, and while he hasn’t melted yet, everything points to it happening. His LOB% is currently at an unsustainable 88.5 percent and his BABIP stands at a paltry .228. He was extremely lucky in these respects last season and has carried it over to this year. If I was an owner of his, I would not want to be left holding the bag on him, and suggest selling high on him while you still can.

Speculation

The Cardinals have a good problem on their hands. The return of Lance Berkman off the DL leaves them without a regular position for the currently En Fuego Allen Craig. With how well he has played, the team will need to get creative in order to keep him in the lineup. Most have assumed he would be limited to corner outfield and first base duty, but I truly think before long he starts seeing regular time at second base. He played eight games their last year without committing an error so there is reason to believe he can handle the task relatively well. The combination of Skip Schumaker and Daniel Descalso have combined to provide what can be described as the only true hole in the Cardinals lineup, so keep this in the back of your mind. Should Craig gain eligibility at second he would immediately become Fantasy Baseball’s best utility player.

Revelation

There is no doubt in my mind that Starlin Castro is already one of the best pure hitters in baseball. If you not aware, he just turned 22 in March. Here are a couple of scary stats as proof. Outside of a 40-game stretch during his rookie season in 2010, his batting average has been below .300 for the season for only eight games. That would be 48 of the 317 career games he has played in. Even if we keep him on his current statistical pace without improvement or serious injury, he should eclipse 3,000 hits by the age of 35. That would make him the second youngest to accomplish the feat in MLB history. If he improves and stays healthy he has a legitimate chance at supplanting Ty Cobb as the youngest. The power hasn’t come yet, but he is hitting line drives at a career-best 24.8 percent, leaving reason to believe it will arrive as well as he fills out a bit more. Fantasy owners should be pleased in knowing that to supplement the lack of power he has begun swiping bases with more regularity. He has 19 stolen bases over his last 88 games. The total package is here, folks.

 *All statistics include the games of Monday, May 14.

I know what you’re thinking – this guy’s an idiot! … See? Dang, I’m good.

Below are 13 thoughts I’ve pulled from 13 different players. Hopefully, you’ll be able to use this information to help your Fantasy Baseball team. Please, I beg of you, do not use this information for evil – unless it hurts the Yankees.

Carlos Ruiz, C, PHI: “I can’t believe I’m on pace for 27 home runs this season! Especially since I’ve never hit more than nine homers in my eight-year career. I’m so glad I changed my normal breakfast from Toaster Strudel to Wheaties – good call, Mom. Granted, there’s no way I’ll hit .340 for the season, which means it’s more likely I’ll hit .260 to bring that average down considerably, but still … If a Fantasy owner could pair me with another player in a trade for a star, that would be a smart move.”

Even with a low batting average, Brian McCann still ranks among the Top 10 Catchers in Head-to-Head scoring this season.
Photo Credit: Keith Allison

Brian McCann, C, ATL: “I wish Fantasy owners would stop teasing me about my .232 batting average, gosh! I’m crushing the ball, smacking line drives everywhere, but they just happen to be right at people. My super-low BABIP has no choice but to turn around – and then I’ll show everyone! Fantasy owners that don’t tease me should target me in a trade NOW!”

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC: “Why is there an ‘S’ in my last name? I wish I knew. And why are people mad at me? I’m on pace to hit 23 homers and have more than 80 RBI! Oh yeah, my .174 batting average is a little below what we’d all want. But heck, I’m just 22 years old and I’m in my first full season! When that big, fat jerkface David Gonos predicted I’d disappoint because of how high everyone was drafting me, I think he got in my head.”

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK: “I know, I know, my sub-.200 batting average is killing you. But at least I have nine steals, and I’m hitting close to .250 in May. My speed should keep me in your lineup for now, although my sprained ankle might slow me a tad. And look at it this way; at least you didn’t draft my big bro!” (Rickie Weeks is batting just .157 so far!)

Dee Gordon, SS, LAD: “Speaking of speedy sophomores! I’m on pace for 55 steals … and a .212 batting average. I’m hitting leadoff (well, I’m leadoff in the batting order, but I’m not doing so much hitting) for the Matt Kemp-less Dodgers for a few weeks. That could spell trouble. Dee Snider might be better in Head-to-Head leagues right now.”

Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, TOR: “That’s right – I’m leading all first basemen and third basemen in Head-to-Head scoring right now. I’m crushing it with the Jays and I’m still only 29 years old. Can you imagine if I was still hitting at Great American Ball Park? You can’t stop me! (Pay no attention to the fact that I have just eight RBI in May, and I’m batting .170 halfway through this month.) I’m king of the world!!!”

Carlos Beltran, OF, STL: “Remember when I was in Kansas City!?! I was awesome! Teams were lining up around the block for a chance at my services! I love the Midwest! (New York never happened … New York never happened … New York never happened.) With a National League-leading 13 homers and 32 RBI, I’m on pace for career highs in nearly every category … Yet, I’m 35 years old and my knees are creaking again. And I’m oh-so-close to being a high draft pick in David Gonos’ Fantasy Baseball Redraft Rankings … TRADE ME!!! MY GOD, TRADE ME!!! I can’t keep it up much longer!”

Travis Hafner, DH, CLE: “I’m starting to piece it together once again. After several seasons of striking out twice as much as I’ve walked, I’m finally turning those numbers around (23 BB/20 K). My power isn’t what it used to be, but at 34 years old, I can still help some Fantasy owners. Granted, I’ve only played more than 100 games once since 2007, but still – I’m Pronk! …  I still wish people would call me by my preferred nickname, ‘Bashy McSluggerton.’”

Wade Davis, SP, TB: “OK, everyone knows I was ticked off at losing the last spot in the Rays’ rotation this spring to Jeff Niemann. But now that he’s out, you’d figure I’d just step in, right? Nope. Manager Joe Maddon will likely use one of their top pitching prospects instead, either Alex Cobb or Chris Archer. Neither is having a great season, but both have better upside than I do. Meanwhile, don’t cut me off in traffic this week – I might snap!”

Andy Pettitte, SP, NYY: “Well, my first start in a couple years was good and bad – just like my current relationship with Roger Clemens! I went over six innings and my velocity is close to what it was before, but I gave up a couple homers and four earned runs. Now that people know I can go six-plus innings, and the Yankees offense is behind me, I should DEFINITELY be owned in many more leagues. My next two starts are at Yankee Stadium, too.”

Jeff Samardzija, SP, CHC: “I know. Spelling my name gives you seizures. But I’m sure you’re happy you were able to just click on my name to draft me, rather than spell it. My 2.89 ERA and 9.27 K/9 has us both giddy! But listen, my Cubs teammates have been scoring a ton for me (7.21 runs of support per start, 32nd in the majors). Yet our team ranks 27th in runs scored through Monday. That means those runs are going to dry up for me, and so will my wins. I’m on pace for 18 wins, but I won’t come close to that. And you can believe that, or my name isn’t Jeff ZmarrmjaaHoushamazilly.”

Josh Johnson, SP, MIA: “Don’t you worry about the ol’ double-nickel. (Yeah, that’s right; I like to refer to myself in the third person’s jersey number.) While I didn’t get a win in my first seven starts of the season, I have pitched well at times, and I have a few things working in my favor from here on. First, my BABIP looks like Ted Williams. Secondly, I pitch in a zeppelin hangar called Marlins Park. Only the Giants (six) have allowed fewer homers at home than my pitching staff (seven).”

Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN: “Just because I’m a setup guy doesn’t mean you should ignore me! Heck, in 14 games (18.3 IP), I have 32 strikeouts and no earned runs allowed! The way things are going for closers these days, Sean Marshall could get hit by a meteorite – then boom, I’m the closer.”

I hope this look into the minds of baseball players was helpful to your Fantasy team. Some of you might even have this same telepathic ability, enabling you to read people’s minds like me. I beg of you – stay away from the minds of Fantasy Sports writers. It’s scary in there.

David Gonos writes about Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football in his So-Called Fantasy Expert column at RotoExperts.com and DavidGonos.com – and you can follow him on Twitter @davidgonos.

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Scouting Report

At 6’4”, 220 pounds, Quick is a monster. He’s got the type of size you covet in a No. 1 receiver, and he uses that length well. Quick plucks the ball out of the air with his long arms, always giving the quarterback a huge target. He’s really a natural hands catcher. Quick hasn’t had problems getting off press coverage, using his length to maintain separation once he beats the cornerback.

Quick’s 4.55 40-yard dash time at the Combine is a really solid number for someone his size. It takes Quick some time to get going, however, and he has more speed than quickness (ironically). Quick plays with natural balance (check out the 47-second mark below) although, he can get high in his routes at times.

Because of his skill set, Quick is unlikely to play in the slot. He’s a prototypical “X” receiver, but he’s still a good bet to garner a lot of receptions. Quick has extensive experience catching screens at Appalachian State (see the 58-second mark), and adequate athleticism to make things happen after the catch.

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One of Quick’s biggest weaknesses right now is that I don’t see him running the entire route tree. On in-breaking routes, Quick is sensational. He can take a slant or dig and get up field in a hurry. On routes that Quick must break down quickly, such as comebacks and curls, he struggles. I’m not sure he has the change-of-direction ability to consistently beat NFL cornerbacks on these routes.

Quick is fine on deep routes, although he needs to give his quarterback more area to throw the football. You can see this at the 1:27 mark below when Quick gets muscled to the sideline on a fade route. He’ll need to learn to fight back inside to allow a window for the quarterback to get him the ball.

Reminds me most of. . .

A young Roy Williams. There’s no doubt about this one; the two are very similar players. Like Williams, Quick can run certain routes very well, but can’t seem to get it done on others. Neither player has blazing speed and they rarely create phenomenal separation, but both utilize exceptional balance and body control to make plays. Williams and Quick both have good hands as well.

Fantasy Outlook

A player like Quick needs to be paired with the right type of quarterback, i.e. an accurate one. Williams struggled in Dallas because Tony Romo isn’t extremely accurate, and when Williams failed to gain separation, Romo looked elsewhere. Luckily for Quick, Rams quarterback Sam Bradford is incredibly accurate and can get him the ball even when he’s covered. The two are a match made in gridiron heaven.

Depending on the number of targets he gets, Quick has a chance to be the top rookie receiver in 2012. I don’t think 50 receptions, 900 yards, and six scores is out of the question. Plus, Quick possesses a high ceiling and relatively high floor if he claims the team’s No. 1 receiver job.

In dynasty leagues, Quick has some real potential. He’s admittedly a gamble coming from such a small school, but the upside is there for big things. You can upgrade Quick in both dynasty and point-per-reception leagues.

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Start your advance scouting for the 2012 Fantasy Football season and relive the greatest moments from the 2011 season. NFL Rewind is where you break it down and replay the great moments of the past season.

Purse – $6,500,000

Winner Share – $1,170,000

FedEx Cup Points – 500

Course – TPC Four Seasons

Defending Champ: Keegan Bradley

Par: 70

Course Record: 61 – Cameron Beckham (2010); Justin Leonard (2001); Charlie Rymer (1996); Billy Mayfair (1993)

Need low scoring to get you excited about golf? Then you may want to avert your eyes for the week. Last year, TPC Four Seasons was downright brutal. The course ranked fifth toughest on Tour, Keegan Bradley and Ryan Palmer struggling to fire 277 over four rounds is proof of that. There are few tournaments where a player can call himself champion at three under.

Jason Day has an opportunity this week to leave his mediocre season behind. Photo Credit: Vinod Divakaran

Could last year have been an aberration? Most definitely.
The 277 scoring total was the highest at the Byron Nelson since Bruce Lietzke finished the weekend at 281 in 1981. In fact, just two years ago, Rory Sabbatini set the tournament record at this site with a 19-under, 261. Since that time, the course has undergone significant reconstruction. Par has been dropped to 70 and most holes have been lengthened. Couple that with the tree-lined fairways and there is minimal room for error. Wayward tee shots will result in bogeys, so targeting players with excellent accuracy will be key.

PICKS

Matt Kuchar – Ride the hot hand. Kuchar’s coming off the biggest win of his career and should parlay that into success this week. His game sets up well for the course, 24^th in accuracy; and he’s flashed some success in Dallas before – a tie for sixth last year.

Keegan Bradley – Despite an incredible 2012 to date, the defending champ is puttering entering play. In four tournaments starting with the Masters, Bradley hasn’t finished better than a tie for 27^th, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Previous success at an event is always a good indicator of future performance. In addition, in nine starts before his cold streak, Bradley piled up three Top 10s and was the PGA’s most consistent player.

Brian Davis – Really, you may ask. Yes, I am offering up Brian Davis as a legitimate selection this week. Never flashy, the Brit has plodded along the last two months making cuts and earning quality paydays. Davis has made nine consecutive cuts, including three Top 10s. Like Kuchar, he’ll find the majority of fairways. He’s currently hitting 66 percent, good for 22^nd on Tour.

Jason Day – Call it a sentimental pick. This time last year, Day was a mortal lock for a big Fantasy week. It looked like the Aussie had come back to life two weeks ago after a ninth place effort at the Wells Fargo Championship. One week later, Day missed the cut at the highly competitive Players Championship. In a weaker field this week, he should be able to get to the top of the pack on talent alone.

John Rollins – The week’s field is without a significant top tier talent so you’ll need to take a couple gambles and Rollins is definitely a gamble. In 12 starts this year, Rollins has finished in the bottom 60 six times. In the other six events, he finished 25^th or better, with four Top 10s. He managed a Top 10 here last year and has the goods to do it again.

Ryan Palmer – Like Rollins, Palmer has been a mixed bag. Last year’s runner up has found success at weaker events lately – including a tie for fourth at the Zurich Classic.

Jason Dufner – In the past two months, Dufner made eight cuts in eight attempts and picked up the first win of his career. His consistency has been astonishing and he always plays better at tougher courses.

Louis Oosthuizen – In such a cluttered field, sometimes the best option is to gravitate towards the talent. The South African is the fourth highest ranked player in the field this week and has the type of game that meshes well with TPC Four Seasons.

Arjun Atwal – Atwal has only laced up the spikes twice at this event and cracked the Top 10 on both tries.

DA Points – Points faltered a bit last year, a tie for 40^th, but has a great track record. In his two starts prior to the 2011 event, Points recorded a set of Top 10s. The best? A bronze medal in 2009.

Pat Mayo was nominated by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for both Golf Writer of the Year and Humor Article of the Year in 2011, but came away empty handed. Follow him @thepme anyway.

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Start your advance scouting for the 2012 Fantasy Football season and relive the greatest moments from the 2011 season. NFL Rewind is where you break it down and replay the great moments of the past season.

I’m here to introduce you to DailyJoust and their new All Star Joust promotion that allows players to play in a tournament every day for $1 and $2. DailyJoust will then award the winner of each tournament an entry into a contest to compete for a $2,000 Prize contest ($1,500 cash + 2 tickets to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10). It’s a great way for new players in the daily fantasy baseball games to play for a little bit of money, but with the potential of a huge payoff.

Daily Fantasy Baseball means always knowing who’s playing at Coors Field. Photo Credit: cliff1066

They also have a free $50 tournament that runs everyday for you to “Learn and Earn” your way through. You can even play against yourself? Yep, DailyJoust is the only daily fantasy sports site that offers a “Solo” contest. All you have to do is beat the “Target” number of points each night, which in baseball is 60 points. If you want to play on DailyJoust, just click on the link here or on the Daily Joust banner on RotoExperts.com and it will bring to you the registration page through RotoExperts and look for the $1 and $2 Tournaments with (All Star Joust Qualifier) next to them.

Let’s get back to the “All Star Joust” tournaments and what it takes to win. Your strategy in a tournament needs to be different vs. playing someone in a heads up contest or a Solo.  With a tournament, you have to take more risk and look for upside. Some of the keys are – Players with extreme splits vs. the pitcher, players vs. a very poor pitcher, players in an extreme hitter’s park, players who are in the top five at their position in the past seven days.

When making your daily fantasy baseball lineups over the next few days, here are some players to consider based on batter vs. pitcher matchups; and pitcher matchups vs. teams.

Wednesday, May 15

BJ Upton 5/11 vs. Clay Buchholz

David Ortiz 6/13 vs. Jeremy Hellickson

Johnny Damon 11/22 vs. Felix Hernandez

Miguel Cabrera 13/29 vs. Nick Blackburn

Aramis Ramirez 5/11 vs Bud Norris

Aaron Hill 11/26 vs Jamie Moyer

Hitters on the Diamondbacks and Rockies (at Coors)

Hitters on the Rangers at home vs. Oakland

PITCHING MATCHUPS:

Gio Gonzalez vs PIT, Felix Hernandez vs CLE, Chris Capuano vs SD

Thursday, May 16

Denard Span 6/14 vs Doug Fister

Adrian Beltre 10/26 vs Brandon McCarthy

Adam Jones 6/15 vs Luke Hochevar

Carlos Beltran 6/15 vs Matt Cain

Chipper Jones 15/42 vs Ricky Nolasco

Brian McCann 16/47 vs Ricky Nolasco

Starlin Castro 6/12 vs Roy Halladay

Carlos Ruiz 10/22 vs Chris Volstad

Jimmy Rollins 14/32 vs Chris Volstad

Corey Hart 7/15 vs JA Happ

PITCHING MATCHUPS:

Doug Fister vs MIN, Yu Darvish vs OAK, Roy Halladay vs CHC, Brandon Beachy vs MIA, Aaron Harang vs SD

Friday, May 17 (Interleague play starts and there is limited batter vs. pitcher matchups)

Dustin Pedroia 5/12 vs Cole Hamels

Nick Markakis 7/18 vs Edwin Jackson

Ian Kinsler 9/15 vs Wandy Rodriguez

Michael Cuddyer 12/28 vs Kevin Millwood

Todd Helton 11/34 vs Kevin Millwood

Albert Pujols 16/42 vs Jeff Suppan

PITCHING MATCHUPS:Verlander vs PIT, Weaver vs SD, Lynn vs LAD, Parker @ SF

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Start your advance scouting for the 2012 Fantasy Football season and relive the greatest moments from the 2011 season. NFL Rewind is where you break it down and replay the great moments of the past season.

This week, we will take a look at the tight ends and see how they performed when playing at home or away. These statistics represent their accumulated stats from 2009-2011. We will look at their average Fantasy Points per Game (FPG), their Quality Games (QG) earned and Games Played (GP). This will show us their Quality Success Rate (QSR), which tells you how consistent they are in these game scenarios.

Let’s take a look at who is the most consistent at home.

THE EXPECTED

The tight ends on this list near the top don’t surprise anyone. However, what’s surprising is there are only five tight ends over a 60 percent QSR. Antonio Gates is the highest and is the only tight end at home or away who has over an 80 percent QSR. Rob Gronkowski has a 90 percent QSR at home versus average and bad defenses. However, at home versus good defenses he is ZERO for six. Keep this in mind during the 2012 season as he has three games at home versus a 2011 Top 10 defense (Jets, Texans and 49ers).

THE UNEXPECTED

The unexpected always seems to be the players who are lower than expected, not higher. Kellen Winslow has a very poor 38 percent QSR at home. Brandon Pettigrew also does not perform very well at home with a 45 percent QSR. His issue is similar to Gronkowski’s. He’s awful at home versus a good defense with a 22 percent QSR. Dallas Clark has a fairly low QSR of only 57 percent at home. His problem appears at home versus a bad defense with a 25 percent QSR while versus a good defense he’s at 75 percent.

POSITIVE HOME/AWAY SPLITS

Two of the tight ends with the most positive home/away splits are Brent Celek and Tony Moeaki. Celek is ranked ninth at home but only 16^th on the road, while Moeaki ranked eighth and 17^th respectively. Neither one of them is extremely consistent and should be used only in the right game scenarios.

THE CONSISTENT STUDS

The consistent studs are those tight ends that are ranked in the Top 10 both at home and away. An interesting stat here is there are seven tight ends that are ranked in the Top 10 for both while there were only four wide receivers that held that distinction. They consist of the following: Antonio Gates (ranked first at home (H1) and third on the road (A3)); Dallas Clark (H7/A2); Jason Witten (H3/A4); Jermichael Finley (H6/A7); Jimmy Graham (H2/A1); Rob Gronkowski (H10/A8) and Tony Gonzalez (H4/A10). This is important information as basically it’s showing how deep the tight end position is for 2012 and why you should not worry if you miss out on Gronkowski and Graham early in your draft.

Now that we have analyzed the home scenario, let’s take a look at how the wide receivers do when playing on the road.

Jimmy Graham is certainly one of the top picks for 2012 at tight end. His ranking of first on the road combined with his second place ranking at home shows you why he’s my top pick for the most consistent tight end. He would have been that consistent even when using the wide receiver’s Quality Factor. He would have ranked fourth in overall points and tied for second with a QSR of 88 percent. Brandon Pettigrew is another solid tight end you can grab in the later rounds and be assured of consistent production. He’s much better on the road as evidenced by his 72 percent QSR.THE EXPECTED

THE UNEXPECTED

There were only five tight ends that had a QSR over 60 percent at home, but its double that when playing on the road, as 10 tight ends are over 60 percent. I have always highlighted the stats showing tight ends normally perform better on the road and this is one of the stats to confirm that theory. Kellen Winslow is unexpected here as he’s normally not very consistent anyway. However, his 71 percent QSR on the road is something to take note of when you need a bye week tight end replacement.

POSITIVE AWAY/HOME SPLITS

The number of extreme away versus home splits are as follows: Aaron Hernandez (ranks 12th on the road (A12) and ranks fifth at home (H5)); Brandon Pettigrew (A5/H17); and Kellen Winslow (A6/H22). Here is an interesting note regarding Hernandez and Gronkowski. They do offset each other somewhat. Hernandez at home ranks fifth with a 67 percent QSR while Gronkowski ranks 10^th with a 56 percent QSR. On the road, Gronkowski ranks eighth with a 69 percent QSR and Hernandez ranks 12^th with a 54 percent QSR.

These figures should also be helpful to you when preparing for your draft as you look for a consistent tight end. If you have two solid tight ends, you will want to identify which tight end has a more consistent game scenario during your starting tight end’s bye week.

If you have any questions about the Quality Game Scores, you can email me at blung@rotoexperts.com. You can also follow me on Twitter. 

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Start your advance scouting for the 2012 Fantasy Football season and relive the greatest moments from the 2011 season. NFL Rewind is where you break it down and replay the great moments of the past season.

Love him or hate him, there is no denying Johnson has a tremendous amount of talent, and when he wins, it is good for the sport. This was his first victory of 2012 and the first for Hendrick in 16 starts dating back to No. 48′s win in Kansas last October. J.J. has three victories in 14 career runs at Darlington, and the ‘Lady in Black’ became the 11th track on the circuit in which Johnson has claimed checkers at least three times.

Jimmie Johnson embraces Rick Hendrick after Saturday’s win. Photo Credit: nascarmedia.com

Johnson’s victory was deserved, as he had the best car all night. Johnson led 134 laps, and when he was out front, he held multiple-second leads. Johnson led the final 44 laps of the race and at no point did it look like he was going to relinquish that lead, even when several cautions brought him back to the front bumper of Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart down the stretch. This was perhaps the most dominating win of the season for any driver, and could be a springboard for not only Johnson, but the rest of the Hendrick team going forward.

Quote of the day

“You’ve got to love that man. (Hendrick) said, ‘Two hundred is great, but let’s go get 250.’ So that tells you where his head is. I love it. Oh, man, what a day!” – Jimmie Johnson

The rest of Hendrick’s teammates weren’t in much of a celebratory mood after the run. The horrible streak of bad luck continues for Jeff Gordon, and it is almost laughable at this point. Gordon cut multiple tires and was never in contention, limping home in 35th place. The disappointing finish dropped him to 24th in the overall Sprint Cup Series standings, which is shocking after 11 starts. Dale Earnhardt Jr. stumbled his way to 17th place, but remains third in the overall standings. Kasey Kahne actually had a fairly decent run, posting an eighth-place finish after starting out on Row 3. He has come on lately, and he ascended three more spots to 16th in the Cup standings.

Hendrick wasn’t the only team running, though. Defending champion Tony Stewart posted a third-place finish, losing the second spot in the final moments of Saturday’s run. The third-place mark tied his best-ever finish at Darlington in 20 career starts. It is still the only track Stewart has started more than once and failed to win. Danica Patrick, who became just the third woman to compete in a Cup race at Darlington, trudged to a 31st place showing, but was pleased with her initial effort at the ‘Track Too Tough to Tame.’

Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr. rebounded with a fifth-place showing, marking his fourth Top 5 of the 2012 season. He remains a solid Fantasy option week in and week out. Points leader Greg Biffle held onto his top spot in the standings with a 12th place run, only his fourth time in 11 races outside of the Top 10. He holds a slim two-point lead over teammate Matt Kenseth for the overall Sprint Cup Series lead.

Five things we learned on Saturday

- Track tamed?: Hamlin was unable to win Saturday, but he had a runner-up finish for Joe Gibbs Racing. Hamlin has an amazing average finish of 5.87 in seven career starts at Darlington Raceway, which is best among all drivers who have made at least two starts at the track.

- Darlington is Chevy heavy: Chevrolet had two of the top three finishers Saturday, three of the top eight, and nine of the Top 21.

- The place drips with racing history: Did you know that Darlington was built as a paved superspeedway in 1949-50? Johnny Mantz won the first race, in 1950, and he started 43rd out of a 75-car field! Hendrick Motorsports has 14 career wins to lead all teams in victories at the South Carolina run. Hall of Famers David Pearson (10) and Dale Earnhardt Sr. (9) lead all drivers in wins. The 2005 Southern 500 was the first Saturday night race at the track.

- It’s the pits: Did you know that it has been just since 2000 that all cars have pitted on the same side at Darlington Raceway?

- Mellow yellow: Darlington had eight caution flags, which was above average for this current season. Only Daytona, with 10 yellow flags, had more. Did you know of the 53 cautions through the first 10 races this season, 24 were for accidents, 14 for debris (including the infamous plastic water bottle at Richmond that Tony Stewart just loved) and five for spins

Looking ahead two weeks

It’s time for the Sprint Showdown and Sprint All-Star Race at Charlotte Saturday, May 19. The next scheduled Sprint Cup series race that counts in the standings will be the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte. It is a grueling race on Memorial Day weekend when only the strong survive.

For Fantasy purposes, we’ll advance preview the 600, since the All-Star race does not count in most Fantasy standings.

It might be surprising to some, but Joey Logano leads all active drivers with an 8.2 Average Finish Position at Charlotte in six career starts. While has never won at Charlotte, he has a pair of Top 5 finishes, and he has finished outside of the Top 10 just twice. Logano will look to carry over his momentum in the Nationwide Series (he has won the past two races) into Charlotte for the Cup race.

It’s no surprise, but the No. 48 has been to Victory Lane six times at Charlotte. In fact, he is the gold standard for Fantasy owners. He holds an 11.9 average-finish with six career victories, 10 Top 5s and 14 Top 10s in 21 starts at Charlotte. Beware, as he does have four DNFs at the track, but that shouldn’t dissuade you in the least.

While Carl Edwards has never won at Charlotte (although he did win last year’s All-Star race), he is third among all active drivers with a 12.6 Average Finish Position. Right on his heels is Kahne, who has won three times at the track, and he has eight Top 10s in 16 career starts.

Don’t overlook Gordon, either. Sure, 2012 has been a mess, but he has won five times in Charlotte, and he has a whopping 16 Top 5s in 38 career starts. He also has nine DNFs.

For drivers to avoid, Earnhardt Jr. (19.4), Kevin Harvick (18.5 average-finish), Brad Keselowski (18.8), Ryan Newman (20.4) and Truex Jr. (19.9) haven’t really fared well at Charlotte over the years.

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As the season progresses, this column will bring you some lesser-known minor leaguers as you look to restock your dynasty league rosters. But in this week’s edition of Prospect Pendulum, I’ll examine one toolsy outfielder I was too low on, another I valued appropriately, two Colorado southpaws headed in opposite directions and more.

On The Upswing

Jake Odorizzi (SP, KC)

Eric Hosmer’s BABIP-related struggles aside, the Royals have done a phenomenal job developing position players through their farm system in recent years. Such has not been the case with their pitching, though, and when Odorizzi faltered in Double-A in 2011, KC fans had to be nervous that another highly-touted arm was stalling out in the upper minors. Odorizzi is quelling those fears in 2012, and is growing into the type of high-strikeout, top-of-the-rotation force scouts have seen in him for years.

Through 38 innings in Double-A, Odorizzi boasts an 11.37 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 and a 2.20 FIP. His 36 percent ground ball rate doesn’t thrill me, but Odorizzi has done a better job keeping the ball in the park this season, and his favorable BABIP but unfavorable LOB% balance suggest his performance is sustainable. Given Mike Montgomery’s struggles in Triple-A and John Lamb’s rehab from Tommy John surgery, it’s fair to claim Odorizzi is the best pitching prospect in the Royals system right now, and one of the more exciting strikeout artists in the upper minors. If an owner in your dynasty league gave up on him in 2011, now’s the time to pick him up. Expect to see him in the majors on a permanent basis next season.

Christian Friedrich has resurrected his prospect status with a successful 2012 campaign. Photo by marc-tacoma.

Oscar Taveras (OF, STL)

I ranked Taveras as the 74th best Fantasy prospect in the game heading into the 2012 season, noting his high BABIP in Single-A as a reason to evaluate him more cautiously than others in the industry. It’s pretty clear now that I undersold him, as Taveras is tearing the cover off the ball in Double-A and may see the majors long before I estimated he would. Taveras doesn’t have much speed and won’t stay in centerfield long term, but he could be a four-category Fantasy force in the not-so-distant future.

Last season, in 347 PA in Single-A, Taveras hit a ludicrous .386 with a .444 OBP, fueled largely by a .440 BABIP. He hit just eight homers but mashed 27 doubles and five triples, giving him a solid .584 SLG. Through 139 Double-A PA this season, Taveras has barely slowed down, hitting .333 with a .381 OBP and a still high but more reasonable .327 BABIP. It’s discouraging that his walk rate has fallen a little, but encouraging that he’s hitting for more power, already slamming 10 homers and posting a SLG of .690. The Cardinals have Matt Holliday locked up for the foreseeable future, and Carlos Beltran under contract through 2013 as well. Neither player is known for durability, though, so Taveras could start to see some MLB at-bats in a corner spot as early as this July. Dynasty leaguers should be aiming to acquire him ASAP.

Christian Friedrich (SP, COL)

The 25th overall selection in the 2008 draft, Friedrich was projected as a No. 2/3 starter who should be able to progress through the minors in fairly short order. The lefty from Eastern Kentucky University cruised through the low minors, but stalled out in Double-A for the entire 2010 and 2011 seasons, battling injuries and ineffectiveness on his way to pedestrian numbers. The Rockies decided to promote him to Triple-A in 2012 anyway, with the hopes that a new level would help restore some of Friedrich’s quickly diminishing status as a prospect.

Mission accomplished. Friedrich started the season by posting an 8.10 K/9, 1.20 BB/9 and 2.33 FIP in 30 innings in Triple-A. Promoted to the majors this past week, Friedrich dominated the Padres in his first major league start, allowing one earned run, one walk and striking out seven in six innings of work. The Padres hardly have the most daunting of lineups, but if Friedrich performs well again tonight, when he’ll face the Giants, he’ll be worth a speculative add in deep leagues. Rockies pitchers are always difficult to rank because they’re frequently unusable in half their starts. But if Friedrich keeps his walks down he can make a Fantasy impact. If nothing else, Friedrich has gone from near bust to respectable prospect again, and he should be on every dynasty leaguer’s radar.

Swaying Backwards

Drew Pomeranz (SP, COL)

As one Rockies southpaw rises, another falls. The key piece coming back to Colorado in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal last season, Pomeranz was demoted to Triple-A this week after struggling mightily with his control in the majors. Pomeranz posted an unacceptable 5.87 BB/9 and mediocre 7.83 K/9 through five starts and just 23 innings at the MLB level, leading to a 4.70 ERA and 4.46 FIP. Aside from the walk rate, those numbers aren’t atrocious, but Pomeranz is capable of much better, and the Rockies were wise to demote him until he regains form.

Pomeranz’s issues appear to be largely mechanical, and there’s no reason he can’t still reach his ceiling as a strong mid-rotation starter in a matter of months. But even becoming a No. 3 MLB starter and fringe Fantasy option represents a fall from what many predicted when Pomeranz was drafted fifth overall in 2010. We knew Pomeranz value would fall when he was traded to Colorado, but most thought he’d at least be MLB ready at the outset of this season. Now we know that’s not the case either, and prospects with declining ceilings and worsening ETA’s aren’t what dynasty owners are looking for. Don’t dump Pomeranz if you own him, but don’t hesitate to leverage his big-name recognition in a trade either.

Anthony Gose (OF, TOR)

Colby Rasmus is hitting just .225/.288/.375. Eric Thames sits at just .257/.304/.400. Aside from face-of-the-franchise Jose Bautista, only Rajai Davis, Ben Francisco and Travis Snider are relevant names on the Jays’ outfield depth chart. So why is Gose listed as Swaying Backwards? Because through his own middling start, he’s missing a golden opportunity to break into the big leagues.

Gose has always been a better MLB prospect than a Fantasy one, as his best tool is probably his ability to play excellent defense in center field. Gose has speed and moderate power as well, but his hit tool and approach leave much to be desired, as evidenced by his 24.0% strikeout percentage this season. He’d probably be able to steal 30-plus bases and mash 15-plus homers over a full season, but at this point I’m not confident he’ll hit above .260 or reach base at better than a .320 clip. Toronto was linked to Shane Victorino and Peter Bourjos in trade rumors this week. Gose also has some competition behind him in High-A in Jake Marisnick, who lacks Gose’s tools but brings a far more refined approach to the plate. If Gose wants to cement himself in the Jays’ future, he needs to start performing soon.

Aaron Hicks (OF, MIN)

There may be a hint of confirmation bias in this write-up, as I’ve never been anywhere near as high on Hicks as most of the industry. Once considered the face of the Twins farm system, Hicks has seen his stock fall in each of the past two seasons, and if suffering through an uninspiring start to the 2012 season as well. The Twins knew Hicks would take a while to develop when they drafted him, but as he’s now in his fifth professional season and stagnating at Double-A, there’s plenty of cause for concern.

Scouts fell in love with Hicks’ combination of tools and approach at a young age, but he’s never hit for much power, and we’ve been promised he’d grow into some for several seasons now. Hicks is now 22, yet he hit just eight homers last season, has only four homers with six doubles this season and has never posted a SLG north of .500 save for one rehab stint in rookie ball. Hicks has good patience but an average hit tool, meaning that his 11.6% walk percentage is leading to a pedestrian .342 OBP. Once upon a time, it was easy to dream of Hicks as a sort of Bobby Abreu-type player capable of also manning center field. He’s far from likely to reach such a lofty ceiling now, though, and I’d be comfortable dropping him in dynasty leagues.

Notes

The Orioles called up Xavier Avery yesterday, after the 22-year-old posted a .373 OBP with five homers and eight steals in Triple-A Norfolk. Avery profiles as a poor man’s Brett Gardner, capable of getting on base, swiping 30 bags and playing above average defense in left field if given regular playing time over a full season. Pick him up if you really need speed and are in an OBP league, but know he’ll likely lose his job to Nolan Reimold once the latter comes off the DL.

Jackie Bradley Jr. has been tearing the cover off the ball in High-A, and the Red Sox could promote him to Double-A soon. Salem wasn’t a particularly aggressive assignment for someone with Bradley Jr.’s college pedigree, but those in deep dynasty leagues can take note of him nonetheless.

Manny Banuelos has pitched much better since coming off the DL, hurling 14 innings with 15 strikeouts and zero walks through two starts. The Andy Pettitte addition hurts him, and David Phelps might be a better immediate option as well, but Banuelos still looks like a strong No. 3 starter who should contribute by 2013.

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Enough of this though. Fantasy baseball time!

THE REPLACEMENTS (not featuring Keanu, the smoking kicker or HACKMAN)

“Nice to see my fantasy baseball catcher tore his ACL”
@lguilder

Most Fantasy championships won’t be swung by the loss of Wilson Ramos; or Chris Iannetta, Josh Thole and Miguel Olivo for that matter, but maybe their injuries present an opportunity to find a better option behind the plate. Adding a backstop that does more than collect enough at-bats to remain relevant is difficult enough. Finding one who won’t destroy your ratios has the same odds of a Mad Men spinoff chronicling the life of Betty Draper getting a green light. Somehow, three viable options remain ripe for the plucking on waivers wires everywhere.

“I’ve concluded that Ryan Doumit is the love child of Jason Kubel and Nick Swisher”
@brandon_warne

A catcher playing outfield? Cuckoo,Cuckoo,Cuckoo,Cuckoo Photo Credit: UCinternational

That’s a stocky combination. Ryan Doumit has everything you want to see from a Fantasy catcher: a power bat with a consistent spot in the middle of the order. Doumit has found himself in the lineup every day since April 29 and mashed the ball – by catcher standards. After adding another two hits Sunday against the Blue Jays, he’s batting a manageable .267, with 3 HR and 13 RBI. He’s available in basically every league, but not for long. Pounce on him quickly before word spreads.

“The Ethier/Mattingly ejections, Gwynn catch and now AJ Ellis going yard??? Wow. #Dodgers’
@MikeMazzoni23

‘Wow’ and ‘Dodgers’ have started to appear next to each other more than Kayne and Kim. The new ownership brought renewed excitement to a franchise, that frankly had seen better days. Even with the reigning Cy Young winner and ‘The People’s MVP’ on the squad – expectations were low. Not quite – Rick Santorum low, but definitely in “M. Night Shyamalan Presents” territory. Hell, their biggest free agent signings were Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang – classic desperation, or so it seemed at the time. We’re now six weeks in, and the Dodgers sport the Senior Circuit’s best record. How is that possible with a lineup that regularly features such superstars as James Loney and Juan Rivera?

“Juan Uribe turns a triple play…into a forgettable experience”
 @emojuanuribe

No. Unfortunately, it’s not the hilarious Emo version of Juan Uribe…

“A.J. Ellis has a higher OBP than Josh Hamilton. #Dodgers”
@dschoenfield

It’s true! I looked it up and everything. After LA’s 11-5 beat down of the Rockies Sunday afternoon, AJ Ellis sported an OBP of .462, seven points higher than Josh Hamilton – yes, this Josh Hamilton. Like any good signal caller, Ellis understands the zone. He’s done a fantastic job receiving the staff so far this season, posting a 3.21 catcher’s ERA – fourth best in the majors. How is that relevant to your Fantasy team? He’s been able to translate the same skills on offense. Ellis draws a walk nearly one in every five at-bats, at a rate of 19.8 percent to be exact. That would be good enough for third highest in baseball, after Joey Votto and Ben Zobrist, if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. Currently, he’s just a few short. Obviously, the extra appearances on the base paths will naturally lead to more runs, but his patient approach will eventually lead to more work hitting from the two-hole. If he were to simply swap slots in the order with Mark “The Lesser” Ellis, he’d see a significant boost to his Fantasy value. Why wouldn’t Don Mattingly make the necessary change? AJ has produced a .397 wOBA to Mark’s, surprisingly not horrific, .345. Even if Matt Kemp misses some time with his bum hammy, AJ Ellis will eventually get to hit in front of him. Even if he remains stuck in the bottom third of the order, as he is now, he’ll be a quality fill in, with substantial upside.

“Jonathan Lucroy is batting in the 2nd spot today with Rickie Weeks out with a sore hand. Good choice for Roenicke. Lucroy has been mashing.”
@Ryan_Kartje

‘Mashing’ may be a slight overstatement. Jonathan Lucroy is around middle of the pack in the power department. His .165 ISO is right around league average, but, like Ellis, he’s scorching right now. Lucroy has hit safely in nine of 11 May contests and is batting .390 with 8 RBIs during the month. Could it be a result of an unsustainable .392 BABIP? Absolutely. Don’t expect Lucroy to be a long-term solution, but for the present moment consider him a viable fill-in. He’ll undoubtedly improve on his three May runs through the increased at-bats and the move to hitting in front of Ryan Braun is just a nice perk.

“Need a new Fantasy catcher? I like Ryan Doumit, AJ Ellis, and Jonathan Lucroy in that order”
@thepme

STRAIGHT FROM THE MOUTHS OF THE ROTOEXPERTS

“#Marlins nearly ready to return to Bell as the closer… if any owner is slow to realize, jump on a trade now before Bell’s back!”
@allinkid

Jake Ciely was on top of this development and hit it right on the nose. The Marlins are paying Heath Bell way too much money to relegate him to a setup role. It’s not an ideal strategy from a winning perspective, but this is how it’s done in Major League front offices. After notching a win in a scoreless, non-save situation Friday, Bell was back on the hill Sunday and earned some familiar results. Two hits, two walks and two runs later, Bell would eventually be bailed out in the bottom of the ninth by Giancarlo Stanton’s walk-off grand slam and end up with his second win in three days. Ozzie Guillen seems set on continuing to use Bell in high leverage situations, and in that abyss of a ballpark, he should turn his season around. Buy Low.

“MRI shows no break for Rickie Weeks but expect him to miss a game or two. Taylor Green could be a sleeper in daily leagues.”
@drroto

I believe what the good doctor tells me. Is it because he allows me to appear with him on the industry’s best podcast? I’m not going to claim it doesn’t play a factor. But Dr. Roto is generally dead-on in terms of how much time players miss with injuries. Feel free to overlook Taylor Green in anything outside of NL-only leagues or the deepest of mixed formats; the relevant news is that Weeks won’t miss much action. The Brewers second baseman may never reach his 2010 level of production again, but he’s one of the few 2B that provides a healthy power/speed combination, and he’s definitely better than the .158 average he’s posted this season. If he returns as quickly as Dr. Roto expects, an excellent, but tiny, buy low window has presented itself. Get on that immediately.

“King Felix had allowed 4 ER in last 5 starts, has now allowed 4 ER tonight”
@scotterotoex

‘The King’ Scott Engel wasn’t lying. Raul Ibanez’s sixth inning bomb Friday night, capping off what was a pretty lousy night for Seattle’s ‘King.’ Hernandez allowed 13 base runners over six and two-thirds, just his second disappointing outing of the season. No need to worry about Felix, but take a lesson from his experience – don’t start your pitchers against the Yankees – especially in New York. It’s not to say the Yanks can’t be shut down, but you’ll take a significant amount of risk off your roster just by introducing those hurlers to your bench for a start.

PAT MAYO’S TRADE MACHINE (not affiliated with Ed McMahon’s Party Machine, unfortunately)

“IN FANTASY BASEBALL PUJOLS IS A ZERO-TOOL PLAYER. NO AVG, RUNS, RBIS, SBS, HRS. #TRASH”
@obnoxiousFan

This is really the perfect tweet. The facts are on the money. And, I feel the use of CAPS really drives the point home. After a brutal April, Albert Pujols has been even worse in May. He’s getting on base at a .170 clip over the past 11 games, managed just a single walk and, worst of all…

“Albert Pujols only has 1 more home run than Rebecca Black this season”
@zfgdotcom

Overlook the current Rebecca Black reference, and really absorb what this is saying: Pujols’ performance has been of such poor quality, we’ve gone from “best player of all time” discussions to juxtapositions featuring the most internationally mocked 13-year-old. It’s like someone hired shape shifting sorcerer Shang Tsung as a consultant, got him to suck the soul out of Jeff Mathis before he left Anaheim and put it into Pujols sometime in mid-March. Maybe not the most likely of scenarios, but certainly not the most outrageous.

“wtf is wrong with Albert Pujols? < where should i start? Bad haircut, ear hair needs trimming ….”
@davesfw

Could it be just an awful do? I figured if ‘Weird’ Al could turn a Bad Hair Day into a hit that naturally, Pujols could too. It just hasn’t swung back his way. Is it possible we’re witnessing the Adam Dunn 2011 experience all over again? I still don’t think so, but it’s becoming more difficult to express that statement each passing day. While Dunn had been remarkably consistent from 2004 until 2010, slugging at least 38 HR in each season, he’s not even in Pujols’ stratosphere in terms of talent. Dunn’s peak wOBA during that span topped out at .403. Pujols’ never dipped below .414.

“If #Angels Albert Pujols’ swing is his problem, but it’s now mid-May, why is it reasonable to expect the swing ever gets fixed?”
@AntiGlib

That is a question we’re all dealing with – is it reasonable to expect Pujols to fix his swing? What if he doesn’t? Should you sell now, while you can still command a hefty bounty in return? What if you were offered Ryan Zimmerman and Andrew McCutchen for Albert Pujols?

From a fairness perspective, it couldn’t be more balanced. In fact, the Zimmerman/McCutchen side is likely the better end. But let me ask you Pujols owners of the world – Would you pull the trigger? I know I’d have a tough time. When the season started, you would have rejected the offer almost immediately, without giving it a second thought. But now, we’re about two weeks away from Pujols’ value going all 1929, completely bottoming out. The same thing happened to Hanley Ramirez last season. After the slowest of slow starts, Hanley lost all value and became the Fantasy equivalent of the Vernon Wells contract.

It’s not to say the other end doesn’t have risk, but it allows Fantasy owners to spread it out a little.

“Looks like my foolish decision to sit Andrew McCutchen this week is going to cost me a win in fantasy baseball. #bangingheadagainstwall”
@bigSnakeMan

McCutchen is obviously the safer of the duo. He finally flashed a power surge in the past week, swatting three long flies, his first three of the year. Even though his power numbers are still well below projections, he’s still a high-end player across the board. Despite underachieving for most the season, he never fell out of the Top 100 overall.

“Andrew McCutchen has so much #swag”
@J_5_R

What Zimmerman may lack in swag, he makes up for in intrigue because the Nats third baseman is really where this deal gets spicy.

“Ryan Zimmerman has steadily been declining over the past 3 years.”
@NatsFanProbs

Factual claim. Zimmerman’s decline doesn’t quite rival the Roman Empire’s just yet, but there has been a noticeable drop off in production. His average has plummeted from .307 to .235 over the last three seasons. His isolated power? Down almost 100 points from .204 in 2010 to a measly .104 today.

“Nats pay Ryan Zimmerman 100 mil to drive in runs, Carpenter & FP had a verbal orgy when he moved a runner over with a ground ball out”
@adammcginnis

I don’t think teams pay players to drive in runs anymore. Sabermetrics won that battle. Unless my dad has covertly been running an MLB franchise without my knowledge. But I get the point. Zimmerman is paid like a superstar, he’s going to continue to bat in the heart of the Nationals order and be given every opportunity to succeed. I’m not normally one to invest in an injury risk, but, based on his upside, I’m willing to give Zimmerman a pass. He’s the ultimate buy low. If he remains relatively healthy somewhere around 125 games, he’ll be a Top 7 third baseman at season’s end.

Still, it’s never as easy as it sounds when you’re the one trading Pujols away. Most Pujols owners have been offered some variation of this two-for-one trade, and I really think it depends on where you’re currently sitting in the standings:

Have you managed to own Pujols and still sit in the upper third of the league? Yes? Then hold on to him. Any sort of spike in his stats will solidify your place at the top.

If you’re looking up from the bottom of the league because your best player has been an absolute dud? Take the deal. Strengthen your team through depth and climb out of the cellar. Time is starting to run out to see if Pujols can turn it around and his value won’t remain this high forever.

Plus, if you’re actually offered this particular deal, you can take solace in that Zimmerman seems to be a good guy – or just one that loves his mom very much.

“Digging ryan zimmerman’s pink cleats!
@cicimo0o0o0re

Pat Mayo was nominated by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for both Golf Writer of the Year and Humor Article of the Year in 2011, but came away empty handed.

The 2012 Xclusive Edge Fantasy Baseball In-Season package is here! Register now  and take full advantage of our comprehensive player advice and analysis!

Start your advance scouting for the 2012 Fantasy Football season and relive the greatest moments from the 2011 season. NFL Rewind is where you break it down and replay the great moments of the past season.