Quarterbacks to start
Aaron Rodgers (GB) – After dismantling the vaunted defense of the Chicago Bears, Rodgers gets to pick on the below-average cornerbacks (Randall Gay and Jason David) of the New Orleans Saints.  This pair is fresh off being burned by Kansas City’s Tyler Thigpen for 235 yards and two touchdowns.  Rodgers' primary targets of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are far superior to Mark Bradley and Dwayne Bowe. Rodgers looks set for a monster day in a high-scoring Monday night affair. 

Kyle Orton (CHI) – Orton actually managed to look worse than “Sexy” Rex Grossman last week, going 13-for -26 for 133 yards, and losing a fumble.  In his defense, Orton was hobbling about the field, clearly still suffering the effects of the ankle injury that kept him out for Week 10.  Now the St. Louis Rams offer a chance for redemption for Orton and an opportunity to keep the Bears’ playoff hopes alive.  With another week to recover from his injury, expect “The Bearded One” to be back in mid-season form against the worst defense in the NFL.

Joseph Addai rebounded nicely against the Texans in Week 11. Photo Credit: Icon SMI

Running backs to start
Joseph Addai (IND) – Is it a coincidence that Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai had their best outings of the season in the same game?  Not at all.  The strength of the Colts offense the past few years was that the running game had to be respected, which opened up the passing lanes for Manning.  Then if the defense tried to sit back to stop the passing game, the Colts would start running again.  Last week, with Addai finally feeling healthy, the Colts were back to their old tricks and mixed up plays enough for their offense to revert to the rhythm of the past few years.  Expect the Colts to shred a below-average San Diego defense in the Sunday night game and for Addai to go over 100 yards for the second straight week.

Warrick Dunn (TB) – Earnest Graham went down with an ankle injury last week on his only carry against the Vikings, and coach Jon Gruden is saying that Graham may miss the remainder of the season.  Now Dunn (4.4 yards per carry) will take over as the starting running back for Tampa Bay.  Dunn filled in admirably when called upon early in the season and makes a decent gamble as a second running back against a Detroit Lions defense that just allowed 264 rushing yards to the Carolina Panthers.

Running backs to sit
Julius Jones (SEA) – A popular “sleeper” pick at draft time, Jones was expected to take the starting job in Seattle and show he was a legitimate starting running back.  Instead, Jones is not even worth using as a flex play.  Sure, it is possible that he ends up with a solid outing (as he did against Miami two weeks ago) but against the Redskins he is more likely to cost you a game at this crucial point of the season.  I hope you are not even thinking about Maurice Morris or T.J. Duckett.

Tim Hightower, Edgerrin James and J.J. Arrington (ARI) – Week 12 is not the time to try to figure out a running back committee on a pass-heavy team like the Arizona Cardinals.  Hightower looked like he was breaking out in Week Nine, but in the two games since then he has 24 carries for 57 yards.  Edgerrin James should not even be rostered at this point.  Though J.J. Arrington inexplicably received as many touches (11) as Hightower did last week, he is not a reliable option.  Just avoid this whole situation.

Wide receivers to start
Lance Moore (NO) – Despite, or possibly because of, the return of Marques Colston to the starting lineup, Moore has totaled three touchdown receptions and just short of 300 yards over the past three weeks.  His 20 receptions in that span show that Moore has emerged as a trusted target for Drew Brees when defenses try to focus on stopping Colston.  While he has more value in PPR leagues, Moore should be starting in virtually all formats despite the tough matchup with Green Bay.

Steve Breaston (ARI) – Expect “Breasty” to be used in much the same way as he was from Week Four to Week Eight (Arizona had Week Seven as their open week), when he averaged over eight receptions and almost 100 yards per game.  The Giants will quickly stop the running game and the secondary will focus on the playmaking pair of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald.  Breasty will be covered by a linebacker or a nickel back for most of the game, which will allow him to get free and pile up receptions.  Don’t expect a touchdown, as he has only scored once, but you can count on a solid day of production, as the Cardinals will be throwing the ball, trying to keep up with the Giants.

Wide receiver to sit
Marvin Harrison (IND) – Despite his strong game last week, Harrison simply cannot be trusted in your lineup this week.  Harrison continued his season-long trend of being on a different page from Peyton Manning on deep balls.  Instead, Harrison’s longest catch was for 12 yards, as he grabbed nine short passes for 77 yards.  Unfortunately, such receptions normally belong to Anthony Gonzalez, who is still working his way back from a hamstring injury.  Harrison’s game last week was not a return to glory, it was merely an "up week" in an up-and-mostly-down season.

Tight end to start
Dustin Keller (NYJ) – The excellent linebacking corps of the Tennessee Titans will have their hands full against the Jets.  They will be called on both to aid the defensive front in shutting down the running game and to drop back and help the secondary against the good receivers.  Dustin Keller will give these linebackers fits as he catches balls over the middle and down the seams of the defense.   He has a lethal combination of speed, reliable hands and the trust of Brett Favre in tough situations.  The rookie tight end has 14 catches for almost 200 yards over his last two games and will continue his emergence as a reliable tight end option.

Defense/Special teams to start
Buffalo Bills – Desperate to squeeze out some points for your fantasy team this week?  Try the defense of the Bills against the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bills boast a solid run defense, which should be able to shut down, or at least limit Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles.  Kansas City will then be forced to rely on the arm of Tyler Thigpen to beat the Bills through the air.  While Thigpen has shown promise in notching good performances in three of the four weeks, the bend-but-don’t break defense of the Bills will hold him to driving between the 20’s and setting up field goal attempts.  The Bills special teams, featuring kick returner Leodis McKelvin, are significantly better than the Chiefs and could prove to be the difference in this game.

Defense/Special teams to sit
New York Jets – The Jets have been a surprise this season, currently sitting firmly as one of the 10 best fantasy defenses.  The key to their defensive emergence is  the monstrous Kris Jenkins plowing through the middle of the line, wreaking havoc in the opposing backfield.  The New England Patriots, however, kept Jenkins off the field for long stretches last week by going to a no huddle offense.   With Jenkins on the sideline, the Jets looked lost and were unable to stop the Patriots.  Expect the Tennessee Titans to have studied this film and to try this same tactic with Kerry Collins.  The combination of Collins’ veteran savvy, the explosiveness of Chris Johnson and the bulk of LenDale White, should lead to a long day for the Jets defense.

Deep Plays
Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw (RB, NYG) – The Giants seem to have an effective recipe.  Start with a good offensive line; say one that has played together for something like 25 consecutive games.  Then get the biggest running back you can find, like the 6’4”, 264-lb Brandon Jacobs.  Pound the defense with the big running back, until they start to tire.  Finally, mix in carries for the speedy running backs, Ward and Bradshaw, to take advantage of the worn-out defense.  If you need help at running back or flex in a deep league, either of these Giants makes a good play.

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