UFC Kansas: Machado Garry vs Prates

A top-15 welterweight bout headlines UFC Kansas as No. 7 ranked Ian Machado Garry looks to rebound from his first career loss against No. 13 ranked Carlos Prates.

Date: Saturday, April 26, 2025
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
City: Kansas City, Missouri
Venue: T-Mobile Center
TV: PPV

Giga Chikadze vs David Onama

No. 12-ranked featherweight Giga Chikadze faces David Onama. Chikadze is 2-1 over his last three after starting 7-0 in the UFC. Onama has won three straight and is 5-2 in the UFC.

Chikadze is an inch taller, but they have an identical reach. Both fighters drop opponents at a similar rate per 15 minutes, at 0.62 and 0.73. Onama lands 1.68 more significant strikes per minute, but Chikadze absorbs 1.57 fewer. Neither competitor is an overwhelming grappler, but Onama will have the edge.

The big difference between the two is their ages, Chikadze being six years older than Onama. I doubt Onama wants to strike with Chikadze, so I expect him to use his slight grappling advantage to edge out the win by decision.

Best Bet: Take Onama to win by points at +175.

Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang

No. 15-ranked light heavyweight Anthony Smith takes on Zhang Mingyang. Smith is on the back nine of his career, losing five of his previous seven fights. Meanwhile, Zhang has won 11 straight and three in the UFC.

Smith is two inches taller and has a 0.5-inch reach advantage. Zhang drops opponents an impressive 5.59 times per 15 minutes. He also averages 5.37 more significant strikes per minute, but absorbs 0.71 more. With Zhang having zero grappling statistics, Smith will have the grappling edge by default.

Smith has said this is his retirement fight and is a massive +360 underdog. It’s no secret that Smith is a shell of his former self, but that might still be enough to upset a largely unknown Zhang.

Best Bet: Take Smith to win at +360.

UFC Kansas Welterweight Main Event

Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates

Odds to Win: Garry -128 | Prates +104
How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -115 | Submission +460 | Decision +155
Will the fight go the distance? Yes +162 | No -215

Ian “The Future" Machado Garry had his 15-fight win streak snapped in his last fight and now faces a dangerous Carlos “The Nightmare" Prates, who has rattled off 11 straight wins.

Garry is two inches taller, but Prates has a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Prates will have the power edge, dropping opponents 3.54 times per 15 minutes. However, Garry is a volume striker and should maintain a consistent pace. However, he only outpaces Prates by 0.33 significant strikes per minute. The big difference is that Garry absorbs 1.78 fewer significant strikes per minute. The grappling matchup will be intriguing, with Garry having more volume, but Prates being more successful and defensive.

Garry is the favorite at -128 and four years younger than Prates. However, Prates has knocked out ten straight opponents and has an outside chance to make it 11.

Best Bet: I wish the odds on Prates to knock out Garry were more enticing than +185, but I think he’s worth the upset bet at +104.