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MLB · 8 months ago

The Case for Drafting Tommy John Returnees in Fantasy Baseball

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

Pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery often present high-risk, high-reward opportunities in fantasy baseball. In 2025, two former Cy Young-caliber arms—Shane McClanahan and Sandy Alcantara—are back and undervalued in drafts. Should fantasy managers and bettors take a chance on them? Let’s break it down.

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Shane McClanahan: A Potential Ace at a Discount

Why McClanahan is a Fantasy Bargain

  • Pre-Injury Dominance:

    • 2022: 194 IP, 2.54 ERA, 194 strikeouts, 0.93 WHIP

    • 2023 (before injury): 120 IP, 3.29 ERA, 121 strikeouts, 1.17 WHIP

  • Health Outlook: Cleared for Opening Day; recovery timeline suggests minimal setbacks.

  • ADP (Average Draft Position): ~123 overall, making him a high-upside SP3 at an SP5 price.

  • Comparable Pitchers Going Around Him:

Fantasy & Betting Outlook for McClanahan

  • If healthy, McClanahan offers SP1 potential at a fraction of the cost.

  • Over/Under strikeout props could present betting value as he ramps up.

  • Cy Young long-shot odds may hold hidden value if he regains pre-injury form.

Ranking the AL Central Starting Rotations for the 2025 MLB Season

Sandy Alcantara: The Workhorse That No One is Talking About

Why Alcantara is Being Overlooked

  • Durability Pre-Injury:

    • 2022: 228 IP, 2.28 ERA, 207 strikeouts, 0.98 WHIP (NL Cy Young Winner)

    • 2023 (before injury): 184 IP, 4.14 ERA, 151 strikeouts

  • ADP (Fantasy Draft Position): ~140 overall, making him a steal for a potential SP2.

  • Key Buying Factors:

    • Already named Opening Day starter for Miami.

    • Likely to draw trade interest from contenders (Yankees, Mets, Dodgers?), which would increase his win potential dramatically.

Ranking the AL East Starting Rotations for the 2025 MLB Season

Fantasy & Betting Takeaways for Alcantara

  • If traded, his value skyrockets—especially for win totals and Cy Young bets.

  • Drafting him now is a potential long-term goldmine if he returns to elite status.

  • His ADP in 2026 drafts could easily jump inside the top 50, making him an extreme value now.

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Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: The Big Picture

  • Draft Offense Early → Avoid reaching for top-tier arms too soon.

  • Target McClanahan (~123 ADP) & Alcantara (~140 ADP) as Mid-Round Steals → Massive ROI potential.

  • Think Long-Term: Where will these pitchers be ranked next season? Likely inside the top 50.

Ranking the NL West Starting Rotations for the 2025 MLB Season

Final Thoughts: Betting & Fantasy Goldmines?

  • McClanahan is undervalued due to injury concerns, despite a smooth recovery.

  • Alcantara is overlooked due to Miami’s lack of offense, but a potential trade changes everything.

  • Both pitchers are extreme values in drafts and in betting markets.

For fantasy baseball managers and bettors alike, investing in McClanahan and Alcantara now could lead to significant returns in 2025 and beyond.

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