NCAAF · 1 week ago

Kalshi Predicts Which College Football Team Will Open at No. 1 | Ranks Top 10

Sammy Jacobs

Host · Writer

10. Georgia Bulldogs
Kalshi Chance: 3% (+3334)

Why

Georgia won the SEC and was seconds away from making the CFP semi-finals. Quarterback Gunner Stockton is back for more, and the Bulldogs are eighth in the nation in returning production. The SEC champions are always held in high regard.

Why Not

Georgia has gone one-and-done in the last two College Football Playoffs. The Bulldogs had a home loss to Alabama and lost the Sugar Bowl to Ole Miss. Stockton will have to improve, and the Georgia roster is coming back to earth in terms of talent and depth.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Kalshi Chance: 40% (+257)

Why

The Buckeyes ended the 2025 regular season 12-0 before losing their final two games to both teams that played for the national championship. They bring back a large core of that team, including starting quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Sayin was a freshman last season and should only get better as the pieces around him mature. The defense will be in year two of Matt Patricia’s system and was outstanding last season. The Buckeyes have all the ingredients to be the preseason AP number one team.

Why Not

The Buckeyes lose plenty of talent to the NFL. Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles and Lorenzo Styles are all moving on from the defensive side of the ball. Sayin showed some flaws at quarterback, especially in losses to Indiana and Miami to end the year. Carnell Tate leaves a hole at receiver which will need to be filled.
2. Texas Longhorns
Kalshi Chance: 29% (+345)

Why

The biggest reason for Texas to be atop the polls is the same reason they were at the top of the list heading into 2025. Pundits are counting on quarterback Arch Manning to take the next step in his development. Manning took huge steps forward in the final five games of 2025. He threw 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Texas also won against Texas A&M and Michigan to end the season. The Longhorns rank sixth in returning production according to ESPN.com’s Bill Connelly.

Why Not

After entering last season as the preseason AP number one team, Manning and the Texas offense did not live up to expectations. They squandered opportunities at Ohio State and versus Oklahoma. They lost to a bad Florida team and No. 6 Georgia pushed them around fairly easily. Yes, they return a lot of production, but is that always a good thing?
3. Indiana Hoosiers
Kalshi Chance: 21% (+500)

Why

The Hoosiers are the defending national champions and are 27-2 over the last two seasons. IU loses key pieces like Fernando Mendoza, Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper on offense. They also no longer have Aiden Fisher and D’Angelo Ponds on defense, but Curt Cignetti brought in one of the top portal classes in the country. Charlie Becker is back, as are linebackers Isaiah Jones and Rolijah Hardy.

Why Not

The Hoosiers lose a ton of key pieces from last year’s title team. The chemistry of the 2025 group will be hard to match and there are unknowns heading into spring practice that will not be answered until the fall.
4. Oregon Ducks
Kalshi Chance: 13% (+556)

Why

The Ducks have all the ingredients to be the preseason number one team. They have the quarterback in Dante Moore and the explosive receiving group to go with it. A young, but talented secondary is a year older. Dan Lanning is one of the best coaches in the country as well. The Ducks are coming off a run to the CFP semi-finals

Why Not

The last time we saw Oregon, they were being splattered against the Hoosiers’ wagon's windshield. They have new coordinators on both sides of the ball and the offensive line has to replace a bunch of talent. While it should not play a factor, Oregon’s lack of competitiveness in the 2025 Rose Bowl and the 2026 Peach Bowl does raise concerns.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Kalshi Chance: 7% (+1429)

Why

Notre Dame may be the odds-on favorite to win the title this season. How much does that play into how people vote in the polls? C.J. Carr is now a sophomore and the Irish return the highest percentage of production from a year ago as well. Notre Dame also has the 8th-ranked transfer class according to 247Sports.com. It may not be a big transfer class, but it features some playmakers.

Why Not

The Irish lose both junior running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarion Price to the NFL. It seems many are overlooking the importance of these two backs and not appreciating just how good they are. How much of Notre Dame’s perceived momentum is due to the soft final 10 games of the season in 2025 after starting 0-2?
6. Miami Hurricanes
Kalshi Chance: 6% (+2000)

Why

The Hurricanes nearly won it all after failing to win the ACC in 2025. Miami brings in Darian Mensah from Duke, as well as the Blue Devils' top receiver Cooper Barkate, who joins Malachi Toney in the receiver room. Mark Fletcher returns at running back and the defense has reloaded through the portal.

Why Not

Miami loses their two best pass rushers to the NFL and it’ll be really tough to replace them. Five of their top six tackles from a year ago are gone and the defense will have to reload. The talent is there, but many questions remain.
7. Texas A&M Aggies
Kalshi Chance: 4% (+2500)

Why

The Aggies always have an argument to be in the top spot. They return quarterback Marcel Reed and the 12th-rated transfer class according to 247Sports.com. Texas A&M is 14th in returning production as well. It is a long shot, but there is an argument.

Why Not

Texas A&M showed their flaws over the last three games of 2025. They needed a huge comeback to beat a terrible South Carolina team, but they lost at Texas and only managed three points in a first-round loss to Miami in the College Football Playoff.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
Kalshi Chance: 3% (+3334)

Why

They are Alabama. The name still carries weight, and in a “down” year, they still went to the SEC championship game and won a playoff game on the road. There is talent coming back, but it needs to improve.

Why Not

The Crimson Tide will have a new quarterback in 2026, and that in itself probably takes much of the chance they have of being preseason number one. Blowout losses in the SEC title game and the Rose Bowl, as well as the lack of ability to run the football, leave a sour taste in the mouths of voters.
9. LSU Tigers
Kalshi Chance: 3% (+3334)

Why

LSU and Lane Kiffin dominated the offseason headlines without playing a game or holding a practice. Kiffin brought in the nation’s top portal class and will have a lot of hype surrounding his program heading into the season.

Why Not

Winning the offseason does not always translate into the AP Poll. The Tigers have the talent and now the coach to be this season’s sleeper to win it all, but people will have their hesitancy to put Kiffin at No. 1, given his history in big-time games.
10. Georgia Bulldogs
Kalshi Chance: 3% (+3334)

Why

Georgia won the SEC and was seconds away from making the CFP semi-finals. Quarterback Gunner Stockton is back for more, and the Bulldogs are eighth in the nation in returning production. The SEC champions are always held in high regard.

Why Not

Georgia has gone one-and-done in the last two College Football Playoffs. The Bulldogs had a home loss to Alabama and lost the Sugar Bowl to Ole Miss. Stockton will have to improve, and the Georgia roster is coming back to earth in terms of talent and depth.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Kalshi Chance: 40% (+257)

Why

The Buckeyes ended the 2025 regular season 12-0 before losing their final two games to both teams that played for the national championship. They bring back a large core of that team, including starting quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Sayin was a freshman last season and should only get better as the pieces around him mature. The defense will be in year two of Matt Patricia’s system and was outstanding last season. The Buckeyes have all the ingredients to be the preseason AP number one team.

Why Not

The Buckeyes lose plenty of talent to the NFL. Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles and Lorenzo Styles are all moving on from the defensive side of the ball. Sayin showed some flaws at quarterback, especially in losses to Indiana and Miami to end the year. Carnell Tate leaves a hole at receiver which will need to be filled.