NHL Best Bets Today: Expert April 22 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value

Three seconds into the NHL’s 2025-26 postseason, a fight broke out. To the casual observer, it might seem insignificant. But true hockey fans know this is the tone to expect throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Teams lay it all on the line, night after night, hoping for a chance to lift hockey’s Holy Grail. 

We’re walking this path nightly, offering our sage betting advice for all the action.

Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges. 

Check out our Stanley Cup Playoff best bets for April 22!

Where to Watch Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers

• Stadium: Xfinity Mobile Arena
• Location: Philadelphia, PA
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers Betting Odds

• Spread: PIT +1.5 (-300) | PHI -1.5 (+210)
• Total: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under (+100)
• Moneyline: PIT -105 | PHI -115

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers Kalshi Odds

• Chance: PIT 49% | PHI 52%
• Spread: PHI -1.5 Yes 30¢ | No 71¢
• Total: Over 5.5 Yes 53¢ | No 49¢

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The Pittsburgh Penguins’ backs are against the wall. Down 2-0 to the Philadelphia Flyers, and now embarking on two straight in The City of Brotherly Love, the Pens can’t afford to cede any ground. Thankfully, we’re predicting a monumental bounce-back effort at Xifinity Mobile Arena. 

It wasn’t reflected in the outcome, but Pittsburgh put forth one of its most dominant efforts of the season last time out. The Pens dominated every facet of the game, producing a 70.6% Corsi rating, outchancing the Flyers 24-11 in scoring and 9-2 in high-danger chances, and contributing to a whopping 73.5% expected goals-for rating. Still, they were held off the scoresheet and gave up a short-handed goal en route to a 3-0 defeat. Surely, those metrics will start to balance with outcomes over the coming games. 

At the same time, Philadelphia’s wins have been built on unsustainable metrics, and it’s unlikely those winning ways persist throughout a seven-game series. The Flyers have mustered just eight high-danger and 25 scoring chances across two games, spending more time chasing the puck than creating chances with it. Their unsustainable play is best captured by their 1.093 PDO, which will inevitably fall back to a normal range. Philadelphia finished the regular season with a 1.008 PDO, and regression will happen quickly in the playoffs. 

The Pens were clearly the superior team in Game 2. We expect more of the same, even with the series shifting to Philadelphia for Games 3 and 4. We’re heading into tonight’s action with two plays, betting on Pittsburgh to cut the series deficit in half, with this one getting sorted out in overtime.  

Best Bet: Penguins -105, 60-Minute Tie +330

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Where to Watch Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild

• Stadium: Grand Casino Arena
• Location: St. Paul, MN
• Where to Watch: ESPN+
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET

Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild Betting Odds

• Spread: DAL +1.5 (-265) | MIN -1.5 (+190)
• Total: Over 5.5 (-130) | Under (+110)
• Moneyline: DAL +105 | MIN -125

Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild Kalshi Odds

• Chance: DAL 47% | MIN 54%
• Spread: MIN -1.5 Yes 32¢ | No 69¢
• Total: Over 5.5 Yes 55¢ | No 46¢

The Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are level in their first-round series. Minnesota convincingly took the series-opener, with the Stars pulling even with a 4-2 Game 2 win. We’re giving Dallas credit for its fight in Game 2. However, the metrics tell a more revealing story, pointing us toward the Wild on Wednesday night. 

Without home ice advantage, Minnesota has controlled the play in both games. They finished Game 1 with a 55.1% expected goals-for rating, skating to a 50.4% advantage last time out. Moreover, the Wild have effectively limited the Stars’ offensive attack, a characteristic that should be amplified at Grand Casino Arena. The third-place Central Division squad has held Dallas to a combined 36 scoring and 14 high-danger chances through two games. 

Sadly, that extended the Stars’ run of futile offensive play. Dating back to the regular season, Dallas has been held to nine high-danger chances or fewer in six of nine, averaging 8.3 opportunities per game. In reconciling their production with scoring, we’re anticipating a few more lean performances from the Stars. They have overachieved relative to their expected goals-for total, implying that ongoing correction is anticipated.

The Wild play a suffocating brand of defensive hockey. That strength is even more evident when they are sheltered in their friendly confines. Don’t expect the Stars to have much room to move out there, tilting the ice in Minnesota’s favor. Considering their dominance in Big D, we predict the Wild will have no problems escaping with the win at home.

Best Bet: Wild -125

NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for April 22, 2026

• Penguins -105
• PIT-PHI 60-Minute Tie +330
• Wild -125

We’ve got three plays lined up for the NHL’s Wednesday night slate. We’re taking the Penguins to upset the Flyers at home, betting that Game 3 gets sorted out in overtime. Additionally, we’re adding the Wild on the moneyline, thanks to their sustained analytics edge.

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