Popular Features

  • 2019 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
    December 23, 2019
    Playoff Fantasy Football: How and Where to Play

    Playoff Fantasy Football Options for 2019 No one ever actually wants to stop playing fantasy football. The entire reason that playoff fantasy football exists is because all of us are so into the activity that we do not want it to be over when the regular season ends. There is really money to be made…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings Last week, I did massive overload of my Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings  but I know that many of you do not play that format and are already starting to think about how you can win your redraft league in 2020. There are some real strategic reasons to start thinking…

  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings As we transition into the offseason (though the playoffs are still happening right now), we will be picking up our dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings coverage here and on SportsGrid. Dynasty fantasy football is one of our big passions here at RX and my early dynasty fantasy football rookies…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • What We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019
    December 24, 2019
    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019 No year in fantasy football is ever going to go as prognosticated. It is a violent game, filled with injuries that can derail entire team performances, coaches are fired, players under and/or over-perform and it is a wild rock opera that rages back and forth as…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update The regular season of the NFL in 2019 has finally left us which means….dynasty fantasy football players are ready to start grinding their 2020 rosters. I know that of my 10+ dynasty leagues, I have already started to figure out what I need to add to my roster…

  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think I know you have heard it. “DERRICK HENRY MATTERS!!!!” “Turns out some Running Backs DO matter, nerds!” As the Tennessee Titans shut down the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens with an emphatic victory in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (after thoroughly dunking on the…

  • Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings Free
    December 20, 2019
    Week Sixteen Fantasy Football Rankings FREEBIE: Frank Stampfl Fantasy Football Rankings

    Week Fifteen Fantasy Football Rankings FREEBIE: Frank Stampfl Fantasy Football Rankings Make sure to use the RotoExperts Projections and Rankings to have your best lineups this week! Week 16 is a different beast. Players are beat up. Players are getting shut down. NFL teams are being eliminated from playoff contention. Week 16 is a clean…

  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…

2019 Fantasy Football Busts

2019 Fantasy Football Busts
Davis Mattek May 23, 2019 2:11PM EST

2019 Fantasy Football Busts

We are beginning our coverage of 2019 fantasy football #DraftSZN in earnest here at RotoExperts. In a corresponding to piece to my first look at fantasy football sleepers for 2019, it is almost more important to look at fantasy football busts in 2019 fantasy football. Most of us will be doing many drafts both in best ball and weekly management formats over the coming months and that will include drafting quite a few different players. If you are playing best ball correctly, your portfolio should be fairly balanced. However, trying to get “shares” of every player is not the best strategy. There are some fantasy football bust candidates that are best left out of your rosters almost entirely.

2019 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates

Tom Brady, Quarterback, New England Patriots

Tom Brady has an Average Draft Position of QB13. That is maybe one of the least sensical ADP’s I have ever seen in my years of playing fantasy football. Brady finished at QB14 last season and QB17 in 2016. His starting pass catchers are Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Ben Watson and rookie N’Keal Harry. New England ran the ball the third-most of any NFL team last season and finished only 8th in total yards per play. The loss of Rob Gronkowski cannot be overstated enough. Since 2011, Tom Brady averaged 6.89 yards per attempt in games that Gronk did not play and 7.99 yards per attempt in games where Gronk did play. The Patriots offense is going to be a run-first, ball control offense that will not provide Brady with his passing touchdown upside from previous seasons. Brady is a very clear avoid for me at this price.

Carlos Hyde, Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs

No way, no how will Carlos Hyde be on even one of my fantasy football rosters this year unless his ADP falls by at least 50 spots. Hyde has an ADP of 114 overall and RB44 in non-Best Ball formats while Damien Williams is 23rd overall and RB13. The gap between those two players is far too narrow. Hyde is getting drafted like a player who will contribute weekly points and that seems fairly unlikely. My exhaustive article on Damien Williams as a first-round fantasy football pick concluded that unless Damien Williams gets injured, the backup Kansas City Chiefs running backs are not good investments. Hyde has never been an efficient player and three teams gave up on him in a 12 month period (cut by the 49ers, traded by the Browns, cut by the Jaguars). Banking on an inefficient, aging running back just because he is a handcuff in a good offense is not a good bet. Furthermore, the Chiefs added Darwin Thompson and James Williams late in the draft and priority free agency and I think it’s possible Hyde doesn’t even make the 53-man roster. Of all the running back ADP’s, I find Carlos Hyde’s to be the least palatable.

Dante Pettis, Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers

For Dante Pettis to justify his ADP of WR35 and 84th overall, a lot of things have to break properly for him. Marquise Goodwin will have to fade into the background as a situational player, George Kittle will have to demand less of an overall target share and less of a redzone market share, and both of the rookie wide receivers drafted by the 49ers will have to play on the outside as opposed to the slot. Pettis had only seven targets deeper than 20 yards down the field in 2018 and the majority of his targets came in between the hashes. At only 6’1″ 195, Pettis has his work cut out for him earning targets along the boundary. Pettis is a case of a young player performing well and the market extrapolating that performance in a changing context. The 49ers will have a different quarterback, a more complex offense while adding three new skill position players. Projecting Pettis for a WR3 target share is difficult to do with absolute certainty and for that reason, he is one of my biggest fantasy football busts candidates.

Delanie Walker, Tight End, Tennessee Titans

Of all of these potential fantasy football busts ADP, Delanie Walker’s position in drafts makes no sense to me. Walker is now entering his age 35 season, coming off a severe lower-body injury that limited him to only one game played in 2018 and the team drafted a wide receiver early in the 2019 NFL Draft. Walker is now competing with Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, A.J Brown, Dion Lewis and Jonnu Smith for targets. Walker’s best years in terms of targets came when the Titans had very little other options. In 2015, the Titans leading wide receiver was Harry Douglas which lead to 133 Walker targets. In 2017, it was Rishard Matthews lining up to share targets with Walker. Now with a young and rejuvenated wide receiver crew, there is almost zero profit potential taking Walker in the first 100 picks of your fantasy football draft.

Access premium NFL coverage 365 days a year with the RotoExperts. Season Long Draft Kits. Fantasy Football Projections. Best Ball Coverage. Dynasty Rankings. NFL Draft Coverage. Expert Chat. Betting and much more. Save 10% when you use the promo AMICO at checkout. Learn More HERE.

 

Popular Features

  • 2019 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings premium
    December 30, 2019
    2019-20 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings

    2019-2020 NFL Playoff Fantasy Football Rankings No one ever wants to QUIT playing fantasy football. In fact, if we could get fantasy football year-round, I am pretty sure most of us would sign up. Thankfully, NFL playoff fantasy football exists and you can play in many different formats and at all different stakes. Michael Leone and…

  • Playoff Fantasy Football Formats
    December 23, 2019
    Playoff Fantasy Football: How and Where to Play

    Playoff Fantasy Football Options for 2019 No one ever actually wants to stop playing fantasy football. The entire reason that playoff fantasy football exists is because all of us are so into the activity that we do not want it to be over when the regular season ends. There is really money to be made…

  • Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings
    January 7, 2020
    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings

    Way-Too-Early 2020 NFL Fantasy Football Rankings Last week, I did massive overload of my Dynasty NFL fantasy football rankings  but I know that many of you do not play that format and are already starting to think about how you can win your redraft league in 2020. There are some real strategic reasons to start thinking…

  • Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings premium
    January 8, 2020
    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings

    Early Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings As we transition into the offseason (though the playoffs are still happening right now), we will be picking up our dynasty fantasy football rookie rankings coverage here and on SportsGrid. Dynasty fantasy football is one of our big passions here at RX and my early dynasty fantasy football rookies…

  • 2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson
    January 13, 2020
    2020 NFL Draft Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson

    2020 NFL Draft Scouting Prospect Profile: Tee Higgins, Clemson With the NFL regular season over, the playoffs more than halfway over and the NFL Draft approaching, it is time to start grinding the future of the league. Our series of prospect profiles will attempt to capture all of the dynasty fantasy football relevant players at…

  • What We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019
    December 24, 2019
    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Things We Learned From Fantasy Football In 2019 No year in fantasy football is ever going to go as prognosticated. It is a violent game, filled with injuries that can derail entire team performances, coaches are fired, players under and/or over-perform and it is a wild rock opera that rages back and forth as…

  • Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update premium
    January 1, 2020
    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update

    Postseason NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Update The regular season of the NFL in 2019 has finally left us which means….dynasty fantasy football players are ready to start grinding their 2020 rosters. I know that of my 10+ dynasty leagues, I have already started to figure out what I need to add to my roster…

  • Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry
    January 15, 2020
    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think

    Fooled By Randomness: Derrick Henry Isn’t Teaching The Lesson You Think I know you have heard it. “DERRICK HENRY MATTERS!!!!” “Turns out some Running Backs DO matter, nerds!” As the Tennessee Titans shut down the juggernaut Baltimore Ravens with an emphatic victory in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs (after thoroughly dunking on the…

  • Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings Free
    December 20, 2019
    Week Sixteen Fantasy Football Rankings FREEBIE: Frank Stampfl Fantasy Football Rankings

    Week Fifteen Fantasy Football Rankings FREEBIE: Frank Stampfl Fantasy Football Rankings Make sure to use the RotoExperts Projections and Rankings to have your best lineups this week! Week 16 is a different beast. Players are beat up. Players are getting shut down. NFL teams are being eliminated from playoff contention. Week 16 is a clean…

  • NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles
    December 31, 2019
    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles

    2019 NFL Playoff Simulations And Betting Angles Our passions here at RotoExperts and SportsGrid is data-driven analysis. When I get a chance to use full NFL Playoff Simulations to fuel my betting action, you can bet that I am going to take advantage of that. While not every bet you make needs to be fed…