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2019 Fantasy Football Busts

2019 Fantasy Football Busts
Davis Mattek May 23, 2019 2:11PM EDT

2019 Fantasy Football Busts

We are beginning our coverage of 2019 fantasy football #DraftSZN in earnest here at RotoExperts. In a corresponding to piece to my first look at fantasy football sleepers for 2019, it is almost more important to look at fantasy football busts in 2019 fantasy football. Most of us will be doing many drafts both in best ball and weekly management formats over the coming months and that will include drafting quite a few different players. If you are playing best ball correctly, your portfolio should be fairly balanced. However, trying to get “shares” of every player is not the best strategy. There are some fantasy football bust candidates that are best left out of your rosters almost entirely.

2019 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates

Tom Brady, Quarterback, New England Patriots

Tom Brady has an Average Draft Position of QB13. That is maybe one of the least sensical ADP’s I have ever seen in my years of playing fantasy football. Brady finished at QB14 last season and QB17 in 2016. His starting pass catchers are Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Ben Watson and rookie N’Keal Harry. New England ran the ball the third-most of any NFL team last season and finished only 8th in total yards per play. The loss of Rob Gronkowski cannot be overstated enough. Since 2011, Tom Brady averaged 6.89 yards per attempt in games that Gronk did not play and 7.99 yards per attempt in games where Gronk did play. The Patriots offense is going to be a run-first, ball control offense that will not provide Brady with his passing touchdown upside from previous seasons. Brady is a very clear avoid for me at this price.

Carlos Hyde, Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs

No way, no how will Carlos Hyde be on even one of my fantasy football rosters this year unless his ADP falls by at least 50 spots. Hyde has an ADP of 114 overall and RB44 in non-Best Ball formats while Damien Williams is 23rd overall and RB13. The gap between those two players is far too narrow. Hyde is getting drafted like a player who will contribute weekly points and that seems fairly unlikely. My exhaustive article on Damien Williams as a first-round fantasy football pick concluded that unless Damien Williams gets injured, the backup Kansas City Chiefs running backs are not good investments. Hyde has never been an efficient player and three teams gave up on him in a 12 month period (cut by the 49ers, traded by the Browns, cut by the Jaguars). Banking on an inefficient, aging running back just because he is a handcuff in a good offense is not a good bet. Furthermore, the Chiefs added Darwin Thompson and James Williams late in the draft and priority free agency and I think it’s possible Hyde doesn’t even make the 53-man roster. Of all the running back ADP’s, I find Carlos Hyde’s to be the least palatable.

Dante Pettis, Wide Receiver, San Francisco 49ers

For Dante Pettis to justify his ADP of WR35 and 84th overall, a lot of things have to break properly for him. Marquise Goodwin will have to fade into the background as a situational player, George Kittle will have to demand less of an overall target share and less of a redzone market share, and both of the rookie wide receivers drafted by the 49ers will have to play on the outside as opposed to the slot. Pettis had only seven targets deeper than 20 yards down the field in 2018 and the majority of his targets came in between the hashes. At only 6’1″ 195, Pettis has his work cut out for him earning targets along the boundary. Pettis is a case of a young player performing well and the market extrapolating that performance in a changing context. The 49ers will have a different quarterback, a more complex offense while adding three new skill position players. Projecting Pettis for a WR3 target share is difficult to do with absolute certainty and for that reason, he is one of my biggest fantasy football busts candidates.

Delanie Walker, Tight End, Tennessee Titans

Of all of these potential fantasy football busts ADP, Delanie Walker’s position in drafts makes no sense to me. Walker is now entering his age 35 season, coming off a severe lower-body injury that limited him to only one game played in 2018 and the team drafted a wide receiver early in the 2019 NFL Draft. Walker is now competing with Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, A.J Brown, Dion Lewis and Jonnu Smith for targets. Walker’s best years in terms of targets came when the Titans had very little other options. In 2015, the Titans leading wide receiver was Harry Douglas which lead to 133 Walker targets. In 2017, it was Rishard Matthews lining up to share targets with Walker. Now with a young and rejuvenated wide receiver crew, there is almost zero profit potential taking Walker in the first 100 picks of your fantasy football draft.

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