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2019 NFL Betting Futures: Early Look

2019 NFL Betting Futures: Early Look
Davis Mattek May 17, 2019 12:58PM EDT

A Look At The 2019 NFL Player Betting Futures

NFL betting futures are always a fun way to follow a season. There are stories of people who bet on Arian Foster to lead the league in rushing in 2010 as he was an undrafted nobody or grabbing Patrick Mahomes at 100/1 to win the MVP in 2018. Winning one of those futures is only incredibly profitable but if you’re tuned in enough, it’s possible to find those odds yourself. While we will take a deeper look at win totals and playoff odds in later articles, the first part of the NFL betting futures market that I want to look at are the player futures. All of the odds listed in this article are from the Fanduel Sportsbook as of the morning of May 17th. The basis for these picks are the RotoExperts projections, which are powered by high-level analytics.

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Early NFL Betting Futures Picks

DeShaun Watson To Win MVP At +3400

The criteria for winning an MVP at this point is basically “Who has the best quarterback season?” Watson really should not be this deep. He has thrown only 17 interceptions in his two-year NFL career, averages 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt, has three stud wide receivers (Hopkins, Fuller, Coutee) and adds extra scoring/yardage with his legs. It is unlikely to me that Watson would finish outside the top-five in MVP voting if he plays a 16 game healthy season. Our conservative, median projection does not make this bet seem exceedingly likely but my supposition is that Watson’s median projection do not account for his play-making style of quarterbacking that could lead to a 50-touchdown season.

Kyler Murray To Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year At +230

Lock this up like you would a mutual fund. The only way that the best college quarterback we have ever seen would not win this award would be through injury. Kyler ran for 1,000 yards and averaged 13 adjusted yards per attempt in his Heisman season at Oklahoma. He was drafted first overall to a team that just hired an Air Raid coach and drafted three highly-rated prospects at wide receiver. Kyler will be running on designed plays, scrambling and adding even league-average passing numbers make this bet a stone lock.

Ben Banogu To Win Defensive Rookie Of The Year At +3300

For an outside-shot player to win Defensive Rookie Of The Year in the NFL futures betting market, they have to be capable of splash plays. Banogu was the most athletic EDGE player in the class and was drafted to a Colts team where he will be in rotation from Week One. Past winners of this award have been an EDGE player four of the last nine years (more than any other position). Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver also offer decent equity at their odds but we need to have a long shot at what I feel is a fairly flukey award.

Jameis Winston For Most Passing Yards At +2300

Our projections have this as almost a must bet. Winston is only projected behind Patrick Mahomes in passing yardage by 120 yards and is projected for the fifth most passing attempts in the NFL. Bruce Arians runs a vertical passing offense that will encourage both attempts and a high average depth of target. Arians passing offenses have finished second, seventh and ninth twice in his time calling plays in the NFL. In the past, he was able to make use of players like John Brown and Mike Wallace who profile like Chris Godwin and Justin Watson. Overall, we are very bullish on Jameis Winston and this is a great number to take.

Patrick Mahomes For Most Passing Touchdowns At +360

Over the course of the offseason, I have toned down our projection for the Kansas City Chiefs offense. We’ve lowered their expected points scored, their yards per play and adjusted yards per attempt and it just doesn’t matter. Mahomes was so brilliant in his sample over the first 20 games of his career that he is still projected for seven more touchdowns than every other player. Getting him at plus money for this makes it a fairly safe investment.

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