Popular Features

  • Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019
    August 22, 2019
    Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019

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  • Davis Mattek analyzes all of the NFL week three preseason action and comes away with 32 actionable fantasy football takeaways for fantasy football players.
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  • FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE premium
    September 9, 2019
    Week 2 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: John Ross, Raheem Mostert And More

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  • FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE
    August 29, 2019
    My Guys: Top Fantasy Football Targets For Every Draft And Format

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  • Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma
    August 20, 2019
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  • Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season
    August 30, 2019
    Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season

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  • How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football
    August 20, 2019
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  • 32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL
    August 19, 2019
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  • Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The RotoWire Pentathlon Experts League
    August 28, 2019
    Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The Pentathlon Experts League

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  • Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019
    August 23, 2019
    Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019

    Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019 You have waded through all the articles and research. You read The Perfect Draft for your draft selection, you printed out your customizable cheat sheet using the best projections and rankings in the fantasy football industry and you are ready to absolutely crush your league using the ULTIMATE…

2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis

2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis
Davis Mattek April 26, 2019 8:59AM EDT

2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis

Last night’s 2019 NFL Draft first round was momentous for many reasons, not the which of least was a rather profitable night in 2019 NFL Draft betting by myself and RotoExperts readers! The ‘early look’ article that was published on RotoExperts when the Fanduel Sportsbook first offered their odds was particularly profitable though the “10 Bets I’m Making” article also featured profitable wagers. Let’s take a look at the wagers and see how we did in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Read All 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles Here

First WR Taken Hollywood Brown at +700 is probably the crown jewel of my 2019 NFL Draft bets. This number did not exist for very long because that was one of the worst numbers that the Fanduel Sportsbook could have possibly hung out there. Brown was consistently mocked as the first WR taken in the draft and was one of the few skill position players even invited to Nashville. We lost some of our other FIRST props (Miles Sanders first RB, Noah Fant over Hockenson) but are still live on Darrell Henderson as second running back.

Reading the tea leaves, it was not incredibly hard to tell that Daniel Jones was going to be selected by the Giants. For betting purposes, we had to define if Dave Gettleman was going to take Jones at six or 17. Haskins was always likely to go to Washington (another winning better) so for the second quarterback selected, we took Jones at +180. While it was a disastrous decision for the Giants, it was profitable for us.

Dwayne Haskins To The Washington Redskins at +280 might have been my favorite bet though now that I am thinking about it, that is probably not a great number. In general, it is hard to place true odds on the occurrence of many of these events so that is why some sportsbooks do not even offer them. However, after repeatedly mocking Haskins to Washington in my drafts, I felt rather confident that he would find his way there at 15 and reports that Dan Snyder was enamored with him did not hurt that proposition.

There is no way around it: I did get wrecked on Noah Fant over T.J Hockenson. I lost this bet to Matt Freedman, EmpireMaker and to a few different sportsbooks. Process-wise, I don’t know if I have any major regrets. Getting +500 or +600 to get what I think is the more talented pass-catching tight end felt like a decent proposition though I should probably always remember how much NFL teams value blocking.

2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis

Record: 7-5, +13.2 units on 1 unit wager

ROI: 110%

(Edit: If betting to win a unit instead of risk a unit (e.g. betting less on the high odds picks), the results would be a 5.06 unit return and 43.85% ROI)

 

We hit the numbers for Josh Jacobs UNDER 25.5 and D.K Metcalf OVER 18.5. I did not check the Josh Jacobs number after I bet it but I would imagine that it was a number that was pulled off the board or had the juice swing dramatically the other way. A good chunk of mock drafts had him going to Oakland at 24 and some even to the Ravens at 22. The Metcalf over became pretty apparent towards the end of draft season as the mock drafts of those really in the know started to not include him in the first round at all.

Losing wagers on Andre Dillard as the first tackle off the board at +300, Juan Thornhill as first safety at +1100 and Greedy Williams as the first cornerback at +120. Of these, the only bet that I feel bad about is Greedy Williams. Deandre Baker, Byron Murphy, and Williams were all so closely grouped and evaluated that it didn’t make sense to bet Williams at that small of a number. Dillard and Thornhill were losing bets but after seeing Jawaan Taylor slide and Jonathan Abram go ahead of Thornhill, I don’t think of those as bad bets.

I posted on Twitter last night that I was also taking the UNDER 3.5 Quarterbacks Taken In the First Round. That was a wager that I really had to think about before placing because it was essentially betting on Drew Lock to either go in the first round or not. After doing some digging into local Denver media, I started to realize that Elway really might have been bluffing and getting the number at plus money made me feel more money.

Kyler Murray to go #1 overall was probably a whale bet that I should have made. Does it ever feel good to go absolutely all in on a bet with -400 juice? Not really, and the limits were probably very low for anyone who is actually good at sports betting but there just was no chance that Kyler wasn’t going to Arizona.

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Popular Features

  • Final Countdown: The Best Fantasy Football Sleepers In 2019
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  • Davis Mattek analyzes all of the NFL week three preseason action and comes away with 32 actionable fantasy football takeaways for fantasy football players.
    August 26, 2019
    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Three Preseason NFL

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  • FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE premium
    September 9, 2019
    Week 2 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: John Ross, Raheem Mostert And More

    Week 2 Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: John Ross, Raheem Mostert And More (Most) of Week One is in the books! Things went rather well for RotoExperts subscribers as Malcolm Brown, Sammy Watkins and Lamar Jackson had amazing days to set themselves up for success for the rest of the year. Of course, fantasy football is never…

  • FANTASY FOOTBALL WAIVER WIRE
    August 29, 2019
    My Guys: Top Fantasy Football Targets For Every Draft And Format

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  • Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma
    August 20, 2019
    Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma

    Buffalo Bills and the Josh Allen Dilemma: A Fan’s Plea For A High Variance Offense I’ve been meaning to write this article for a while, and it’s difficult to tell where to start. I think the best place is my feelings about Josh Allen when he was first drafted.  I was upset. I thought it…

  • Ten Bold Fantasy Football Predictions For The 2019 Fantasy Football Season
    August 30, 2019
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  • How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football
    August 20, 2019
    How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football

    How To Approach Josh Gordon In Fantasy Football It actually happened! After taking an aggressive stance on Josh Gordon in the DRAFT Best Ball championship and in other league formats, Gordon has been reinstated by the league and returned to the New England Patriots organization. Of course, this is not the first time that Josh…

  • 32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL
    August 19, 2019
    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL

    32 Things To Learn For Fantasy Football From Week Two Preseason NFL Preseason continues to matters for those who are serious about winning their fantasy football leagues. Not every team flashed their true colors in week two preseason action but there was plenty to take away from a fantasy football context. The to-the-decimal projections here…

  • Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The RotoWire Pentathlon Experts League
    August 28, 2019
    Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The Pentathlon Experts League

    Fantasy Football Auction Strategy In Action: The Pentathlon Experts League Fantasy football auctions are pretty drastically different than a standard snake draft. Obviously, instead of drafting players in sequential order, fantasy football managers are given a fake budget (usually $200 “dollars”) in which to complete their starting roster and bench spots. There are many different…

  • Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019
    August 23, 2019
    Final Countdown: The Biggest Fantasy Football BUSTS Of 2019

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