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2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis

2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis
Davis Mattek April 26, 2019 8:59AM EDT

2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis

Last night’s 2019 NFL Draft first round was momentous for many reasons, not the which of least was a rather profitable night in 2019 NFL Draft betting by myself and RotoExperts readers! The ‘early look’ article that was published on RotoExperts when the Fanduel Sportsbook first offered their odds was particularly profitable though the “10 Bets I’m Making” article also featured profitable wagers. Let’s take a look at the wagers and see how we did in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Read All 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles Here

First WR Taken Hollywood Brown at +700 is probably the crown jewel of my 2019 NFL Draft bets. This number did not exist for very long because that was one of the worst numbers that the Fanduel Sportsbook could have possibly hung out there. Brown was consistently mocked as the first WR taken in the draft and was one of the few skill position players even invited to Nashville. We lost some of our other FIRST props (Miles Sanders first RB, Noah Fant over Hockenson) but are still live on Darrell Henderson as second running back.

Reading the tea leaves, it was not incredibly hard to tell that Daniel Jones was going to be selected by the Giants. For betting purposes, we had to define if Dave Gettleman was going to take Jones at six or 17. Haskins was always likely to go to Washington (another winning better) so for the second quarterback selected, we took Jones at +180. While it was a disastrous decision for the Giants, it was profitable for us.

Dwayne Haskins To The Washington Redskins at +280 might have been my favorite bet though now that I am thinking about it, that is probably not a great number. In general, it is hard to place true odds on the occurrence of many of these events so that is why some sportsbooks do not even offer them. However, after repeatedly mocking Haskins to Washington in my drafts, I felt rather confident that he would find his way there at 15 and reports that Dan Snyder was enamored with him did not hurt that proposition.

There is no way around it: I did get wrecked on Noah Fant over T.J Hockenson. I lost this bet to Matt Freedman, EmpireMaker and to a few different sportsbooks. Process-wise, I don’t know if I have any major regrets. Getting +500 or +600 to get what I think is the more talented pass-catching tight end felt like a decent proposition though I should probably always remember how much NFL teams value blocking.

2019 NFL Draft Round One Betting Recap & Analysis

Record: 7-5, +13.2 units on 1 unit wager

ROI: 110%

(Edit: If betting to win a unit instead of risk a unit (e.g. betting less on the high odds picks), the results would be a 5.06 unit return and 43.85% ROI)

 

We hit the numbers for Josh Jacobs UNDER 25.5 and D.K Metcalf OVER 18.5. I did not check the Josh Jacobs number after I bet it but I would imagine that it was a number that was pulled off the board or had the juice swing dramatically the other way. A good chunk of mock drafts had him going to Oakland at 24 and some even to the Ravens at 22. The Metcalf over became pretty apparent towards the end of draft season as the mock drafts of those really in the know started to not include him in the first round at all.

Losing wagers on Andre Dillard as the first tackle off the board at +300, Juan Thornhill as first safety at +1100 and Greedy Williams as the first cornerback at +120. Of these, the only bet that I feel bad about is Greedy Williams. Deandre Baker, Byron Murphy, and Williams were all so closely grouped and evaluated that it didn’t make sense to bet Williams at that small of a number. Dillard and Thornhill were losing bets but after seeing Jawaan Taylor slide and Jonathan Abram go ahead of Thornhill, I don’t think of those as bad bets.

I posted on Twitter last night that I was also taking the UNDER 3.5 Quarterbacks Taken In the First Round. That was a wager that I really had to think about before placing because it was essentially betting on Drew Lock to either go in the first round or not. After doing some digging into local Denver media, I started to realize that Elway really might have been bluffing and getting the number at plus money made me feel more money.

Kyler Murray to go #1 overall was probably a whale bet that I should have made. Does it ever feel good to go absolutely all in on a bet with -400 juice? Not really, and the limits were probably very low for anyone who is actually good at sports betting but there just was no chance that Kyler wasn’t going to Arizona.

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