Kyler Murray Is The #1 Overall Pick And Other 2019 NFL Draft Observations
As we are now less than 12 hours away from the start of the 2019 NFL Draft, I have decided to collect some of my scattered observations based on reading mock drafts, Schefter/Rapsheet updates and perusing the betting markets on the Fanduel Sportsbook and others. The day of the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft is of course filled with smokescreens, rumors that never come to fruition and inevitably, some team throwing away 18 months of evaluation to take the strongest armed quarterback they can find. Let’s dig in!
2019 NFL Draft Observations
- Over the last 24 hours, we have heard every iteration of “don’t be so sure that Kyler Murray is going to Arizona” under the sun. I will say this: the betting markets do not reflect that at all and neither does the reality of the situation. Murray actually has moved to being an even BIGGER favorite at some sportsbooks to be the #1 overall pick. The Fanduel Sportsbook has Kyler at -400 to be the first pick selected and I am going to be laying the juice and making that bet myself.
- There seems to be some value in Rock Ya-Sin being the first cornerback drafted at +500. There have been numerous reports that the Steelers have visited with the young cornerback and plan to make him their selection at #20. We can debate the intelligence of that selection but at +500 at the FD Sportsbook and others, I plan on making that wager personally.
- It seems as if the New York Jets and Detriot Lions are really trying to trade back, which makes sense. If the Jets want an offensive lineman (which they should), many of their targets might be available in the 15th-20th pick range. Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams, and even Garrett Bradbury could all be there. New York could get an extra pick or two and get a player to aid Sam Darnold’s development. The Lions target is a little less clear. I mocked Greedy Williams to them at eight which feels like a bit of an overpay. If they could find a could trade down, Byron Murphy or perhaps even Williams himself could be available in the 20’s.
- What on Earth is Dan Snyder doing? Reports out of Washington are that Snyder has completely taken over the first round drafting process for Washington, implying that he wants to get his team a quarterback. This is interesting for quite a few reasons. The first is that Jay Gruden is pretty obviously headed out the door and might not care much if his team loses multiple first round picks (especially if you are the conspiracy-minded type, thinking he could give his brother Jon a few extra picks on his way out). Another amazing factor about this is that Snyder could theoretically be looking to leapfrog the Giants to take Daniel Jones which would be cutting off his nose to spite his face. Most of us agree that Daniel Jones is not a top-tier prospect, yet it seems that half of the NFC East can’t stop coveting him.
- Our boy D.K Metcalf might be out of the first round entirely. Daniel Jeremiah, Peter Schrager and Charles Davis all do not have Metcalf going in the first round in their most recent mock drafts. He is definitely one of the riskiest prospects of the entire draft and there are much safer defensive prospects on the board where he is projected to go. His line at the Fanduel Sportsbook is 18.5 and I took the OVER on that number and feel quite good about it.
- Another rumor that we’ve heard over the last 24 hours is that the Bengals are no longer interested in taking a quarterback. Maybe Daniel Jones is their guy and they don’t want to trade up, maybe they are out on Haskins and maybe they have no interest in Drew Lock. If the Bengals are out of the QB market in round one, the UNDER on 3.5 quarterbacks gone in the first round might come down the Packers taking Aaron Rodgers’ eventual successor or it won’t hit.
- 2018’s most accurate mock drafter, Evan Silva, has one only ONE wide receiver going in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. While I selfishly hope that will not be the case for the RotoExperts live blog tonight, it is entirely possible. This is a deep wide receiver class which means that most teams will themselves that they can get a guy they like in the second or even third round.
- I need it to be OFFICIALLY on the record that Daniel Jones is going to be a Jake Locker, Johnny Manziel, Zach Mettenberger level BUST. There is some great corresponding evidence from Alex Kirshner on SB Nation.
- Josh Jacobs is still expected to be drafted in the first round (to maybe even the Baltimore Ravens?) despite not doing much of anything at Alabama. I think that we are probably five years away from teams staying away from these types of “film only” prospects but the fact that Jacobs was even invited to the first round of the draft is evidence that the edges still exist.
- For dynasty fantasy football purposes, the first round does not seem like it is going to be terribly exciting. Both of the Iowa tight ends are expected to go but outside of Josh Jacobs and maybe Marquise Brown, we might be starving for action. Day Two of the draft, however, should see all of our favorite prospects go to places where we can start telling stories about their future stardom.
- The biggest story of the 2019 NFL Draft might end up being a player from the 2018 NFL Draft. If Josh Rosen does indeed get traded from the Arizona Cardinals and goes on to star for the Giants, Dolphins or Washington, how could not that be considered at least a semi-failure by the Cardinals? Regardless of how effective Kyler Murray ends up being, they still cost themselves a first-round pick for a year of very bad play from Rosen.
- Rich Eisen from NFL.com reported that a league source told him the most likely Top 10 of the draft isQuinnen Williams, AZBosa, SF
Kyler Murray, OAK
Devin White, TB
Josh Allen, DET
Christian Wilkins, ATL
Devin Bush, DEN
- If Wilkins, Bush and White all go in the first ten picks of the draft, I would be legitimately surprised. Hockenson to Jacksonville is a pretty popular pick and there have been murmurs that the Raiders really want Kyler Murray but seeing him go at #4 would be a shock to the system.
- Finally, make sure to follow along tonight on my live blog for the 2019 NFL Draft at: www.rotoexperts.com/draftlive
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