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The 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market: Is There Any Value?

The 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market: Is There Any Value?
Davis Mattek April 17, 2019 12:15PM EDT

An Early Look At The 2019 NFL Futures Betting Market

Hitting a futures bet is one of the absolute best feelings in sports. The cost associated is one that some people don’t necessarily realize though. While the prices might seem good eight months out, you’re paying a tax by keeping your money locked up in a wager for that amount of time. The 2019 NFL Futures betting market is starting to take shape and pre-draft is a good time to try and see if there is some extra value. I enjoy placing futures bets and I think we can always learn things from looking at futures markets, but keep in mind the cost associated with a portion of your bankroll being non-liquid for the period of time that the bet will take while we look at a few of these odds.

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Indianapolis Colts +1800

Seeing the Colts this low in the 2019 NFL Futures market was a little surprising to me. Yes, they did recently get dunked on in the playoffs by the Kansas City Chiefs but most of their team is pointing up. They should be able to bolster their offense with their upcoming first-round pick, they have one of the best salary cap situations in the league, a franchise quarterback and an ascending defense. Health and wide receiver were the two biggest weaknesses for the Colts last season. I’m not in the business of predicting health but I can say with confidence that the Colts pass catchers will be better in 2019 than they were in 2018. Darius Leonard, Malik Hooker, and Pierre Desir were amongst the best defensive players at their respective positions last season. With the Patriots weakened by the retirement of Rob Gronkowski, looking at deeper AFC teams makes sense to me for 2019.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7000

The NFC is really ruled by two teams at the moment: The Los Angeles Rams and the New Orleans Saints. The Rams just came off one of the most disappointing Super Bowl performances of all time and the Saints had one of the most disappointing playoff losses of all time. Do I really think the Bucs are better than either team? No. However, I do think that Bruce Arians calls plays in an optimal fashion, that Jameis Winston is a better-than-average NFL quarterback and that throwing the ball 65% of the time is more than half the battle. If the Buccaneers eschew running the ball for targeting their core of insanely talented pass-catchers (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J Howard, Justin Watson), then it’s not impossible that they win the NFC South and compete for a title.

Cincinnati Bengals +125000

You read correctly. Despite the fact that Zac Taylor was not as innovative of a head coach signing as I originally thought (he has ties through marriage to the organization), I am still generally optimistic on the hire. The Bengals offense has a lot of pieces are above average. A.J Green, Tyler Boyd, and John Ross is a legitimately good wide receiver group. Tyler Eifert has been an effective red zone tight end when healthy and C.J Uzomah is a quality second tight end. Of course, Andy Dalton is not what we picture when thinking of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. I have tended to start to drift to the mindset that mediocre quarterbacks can be buoyed by the scheme and surrounding talent. If Zac Taylor is as innovative and intelligent as Sean McVay than this bet will feel prescient.

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