Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings
    April 30, 2019
    2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft wrapped up and in the books, it is time to get to Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings. Most dynasty leagues that I am in are ready to begin their rookie drafts for the 2019 NFL Draft class. The draft brought…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Tight End
    May 28, 2019
    Three Impending Fantasy Football Breakout Seasons

    These Three Fantasy Football Breakout Players Are Ready To Shine It is no secret that every year in fantasy football, players emerge who were just barely on the periphery of fantasy football relevance during fantasy football draft season. Last year at this time, you did not know who Phillip Lindsay was, James White was just…

  • Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft
    May 8, 2019
    Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft

    Fantasy Insiders Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft It is Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft season! While I compiled my top 40 rankings of rookies for dynasty fantasy football purposes, we have yet to address Superflex dynasty leagues in the NFL365 package. I participate in the Fantasy Insiders SuperFlex Best Ball Dynasty league with…

  • Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Strategy
    May 14, 2019
    Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets

    Ten Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets By this point, most RotoExperts readers are probably familiar with the concept of Zero RB drafting. Last week, I put together a list of ten Zero RB fantasy football candidates to help you in your fantasy football leagues. However, a less discussed strategy is the Zero wide receiver fantasy football…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back
    May 30, 2019
    Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back

    Five Running Back Fantasy Football Sleepers Finding late round running back fantasy football sleepers is the surest way to attain a league-winning roster. Phillip Lindsay and James Conner were legitimate league-winners at the running back position last year and they barely had ADP’s. Unlike most of our recent content, including the ULTIMATE Guide To Winning…

  • Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended
    July 19, 2019
    Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended

    Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended For a plethora of reasons, it seems that Tyreek Hill will not in fact be suspended by the Kansas City Chiefs or the NFL itself. Adam Schefter and other league sources have reported that both the team and league decided there was not enough conclusive evidence in Hill’s…

  • The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver?
    July 18, 2019
    The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver?

    The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver? As the passing revolution has continued, the value of the absolute top wide receiver in fantasy football has increased. It used to be that the top running back was the prized jewel of fantasy football but now multiple wide receivers have justified…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade premium
    July 17, 2019
    Closing Window: Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys Before Training Camp

    Closing Window: Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys Before Training Camp We have taken a look at dynasty buys here on RotoExperts a few times over the offseason but now, it is game time. Dynasty fantasy football is about to get real. Training camp, injuries, preseason games, roster movement, all of the good stuff is going to…

  • Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019 Chris Godwin's Stock Rising, Eagles Alshon Jeffrey's Falling
    July 16, 2019
    Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019 Last season, the NFL saw a total of  17,671 pass attempts or 34.5 for each team per game. In 2017, that number was 34.2. The average team scored 21.7 points per game in 2017, while the average team scored 23.3 points per game in…

  • Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019
    July 15, 2019
    Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019

    Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019 Every single year, fantasy football leagues are swung by rookie running backs. Saquon Barkley was drafted as a superstar but Phillip Lindsay was a UDFA in 2018. Nick Chubb exploded in the second half of the season after Carlos Hyde was traded. Even Sony Michel returned value after…

2019 NFL Week One Betting Lines Analysis

2019 NFL Week One Betting Lines Analysis
Davis Mattek April 22, 2019 10:55AM EDT

2019 NFL Week One Betting Lines Analysis From Our Simulation Model

Using a similar methodology to our look at 2019 NFL win total bets, the sports statistician at Sportsgrid has run a model looking at the Week One Betting lines from the Fanduel Sportsbook.  This same methodology was able to finish in the top 10 of 150 contestants in the Fantasy Pros Sports Betting accuracy challenge in 2018 and beat the rake on 5-Star plays.

The Week One betting lines can be found at the Fanduel SportsBook, where new users can receive a 100% deposit bonus.

Week One Line Bets From The Model

2019 NFL Week One Betting Lines Analysis 2

Week One Betting PICKS From The Model

(Author’s note: With six months to go, lines are very SUBJECT TO CHANGE. These are prices that Arturo’s model considers bettable)

Tennessee Titans +5 @ Cleveland Browns

No surprises here. The Cleveland Browns are getting a fair bit of respect from linesmakers and the betting public but of course, they still haven’t won anything. While the on-field product for the Titans was horribly depressing last season, they finished right around league average in DVOA. They were a very average team and I would argue that a healthy Marcus Mariota is close to an above-average NFL quarterback. I agree with the model that this is a bettable line.

Philadelphia Eagles -8 vs Washington

The reasons that this would be a bettable line are fairly clear. The Eagles were a diminished version of their Super Bowl selves last year and still finished at league average in DVOA while Washington lost their starting quarterback and were the fourth worst team in the league in DVOA. Washington will either be starting Case Keenum or a rookie quarterback in Week One while the Eagles will have a healthy Carson Wentz and re-tooled defense. This has the makings of an opening day blowout.

Kansas City -4.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Another bet that feels almost intuitive. Kansas City was the best team in football last season and even projecting for some offensive regression, they are still a few tiers better than a Jacksonville team that finished third-worst in the NFL in yards per play in 2018. The Chiefs gained a full two yards per play more than the Jaguars in 2018. Despite having to travel on the road for the first game, this is a road favorite that is in a good spot to cover. In general, I am apt to bet on road favorites when their strength comes from the offensive side of the ball.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are another darling team of both the media and the betting public. Long before Chris Ballard took the reigns and made the Colts into a formidable roster, the media had declared that Andrew Luck was the next best QB in the league. Lines towards the Colts have always been more favorable then they should, even when they were a legit bad football team. The Chargers, on the other hand, are a legitimately good football team (third in DVOA in 2018, third in yards per play) that is sort of disrespected by this opening line. It’s hard to keep your money locked up for six months for one game but this is a particularly weak line.

Seattle Seahawks -8 vs Cincinnati Bengals

I actually disagree with the model on this one and would go the other way in picking the game; however, I do completely see the logic behind it especially when tying in Vegas strength of schedule. Las Vegas definitely thinks that the Bengals are going to be bad a football team in 2019 but I’m not so sure. The assortment of talented playmakers they have on offense could be sort of special if Zac Taylor is a good offensive play-caller. There is no evidence of that as of yet but if you lend credence to his background with Sean McVay, it certainly has to come into play in terms of probabilities. I might end up looking like a fool but I am leaving the door open to the Bengals being sort of good. The model likes Seahawks -8 but I would say this is closer to a no bet, personally.

Dallas Cowboys -7 vs New York Giants

There is not a bigger laughingstock in professional football than the New York Football Giants. The Montreal Alouettes look down their nose at Dave Gettleman, John Mara, and Eli Manning. The talentless Giants roster has no EDGE rusher, no quarterback, no boundary corners or receivers and one really good running back whose offense was better with him off the field last season than on it. Until the Giants are frequently double-digit underdogs, they are a prime target to bet against. Dallas, despite running an archaic offensive scheme, is a good football team that ranked right at league average in  yards per play in 2018.

Access premium NFL coverage 365 days a year with the RotoExperts. Season Long Draft Kits. Fantasy Football Projections. Best Ball Coverage. Dynasty Rankings. NFL Draft Coverage. Expert Chat. Betting and much more. Save 10% when you use the promo AMICO at checkout. Learn More HERE.

Arizona Cardinals PK vs Detroit Lions

The Lions are somehow not thought of as a bad football team despite gaining only 5.0 yards per play on offense in 2018 and being less productive than the Jeff Driskel-lead Bengals in terms of Expected Points Added on offense. The Cardinals were the worst team in football last season but I count myself as a Kliff Kingsbury believer and more importantly, a Kyler Murray believer. The Cardinals are going to draft Kyler, trade or bench Rosen and be a better/more exciting football team in 2019. Being a PK at home vs an uninspiring Lions team makes them a prime candidate Week One betting spot for me.

New Orleans Saints -7.5 vs Houston Texans

The extra half point here does give me a second of pause. The Saints are definitely a better-projected team than Houston is and Sean Payton is sort of notorious for going for the jugular. However, New Orleans has been slowly shifting into a more run-heavy team over the last few seasons and I’m slightly worried about a lower number of plays/possessions in this game could move the spread into the 6-7 range by the start of the season.

Oakland Raiders -2.5 vs Denver Broncos

One of the strangest lines on the board and it is entirely about projecting what teams will look like with little information. The Broncos have a new offense, a new quarterback (Joe Flacco or potentially Drew Lock) and so will the Raiders. This article is being written before the NFL Draft so it is even possible that the Raiders have a new quarterback come Week One. All indicators seem to be that Oakland is going to have a better offense in 2019 and the defense should at least be able to put a little pressure on the quarterback instead of being the toothless unit that recorded only 13 sacks in 2019. While this is probably the weirdest Week One betting line of all, if you buy into the Raiders team construction at all, it’s a good spot to invest.

The Week One betting lines can be found at the Fanduel SportsBook, where new users can receive a 100% deposit bonus.

Popular Features

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings
    April 30, 2019
    2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings

    Davis Mattek’s 2019 NFL Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings With the 2019 NFL Draft wrapped up and in the books, it is time to get to Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Rankings. Most dynasty leagues that I am in are ready to begin their rookie drafts for the 2019 NFL Draft class. The draft brought…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Tight End
    May 28, 2019
    Three Impending Fantasy Football Breakout Seasons

    These Three Fantasy Football Breakout Players Are Ready To Shine It is no secret that every year in fantasy football, players emerge who were just barely on the periphery of fantasy football relevance during fantasy football draft season. Last year at this time, you did not know who Phillip Lindsay was, James White was just…

  • Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft
    May 8, 2019
    Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft

    Fantasy Insiders Industry Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft It is Superflex Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft season! While I compiled my top 40 rankings of rookies for dynasty fantasy football purposes, we have yet to address Superflex dynasty leagues in the NFL365 package. I participate in the Fantasy Insiders SuperFlex Best Ball Dynasty league with…

  • Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Strategy
    May 14, 2019
    Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets

    Ten Zero Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Targets By this point, most RotoExperts readers are probably familiar with the concept of Zero RB drafting. Last week, I put together a list of ten Zero RB fantasy football candidates to help you in your fantasy football leagues. However, a less discussed strategy is the Zero wide receiver fantasy football…

  • Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back
    May 30, 2019
    Five Legitimate Fantasy Football Sleepers At Running Back

    Five Running Back Fantasy Football Sleepers Finding late round running back fantasy football sleepers is the surest way to attain a league-winning roster. Phillip Lindsay and James Conner were legitimate league-winners at the running back position last year and they barely had ADP’s. Unlike most of our recent content, including the ULTIMATE Guide To Winning…

  • Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended
    July 19, 2019
    Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended

    Fantasy Football Impact: Tyreek Hill Not Suspended For a plethora of reasons, it seems that Tyreek Hill will not in fact be suspended by the Kansas City Chiefs or the NFL itself. Adam Schefter and other league sources have reported that both the team and league decided there was not enough conclusive evidence in Hill’s…

  • The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver?
    July 18, 2019
    The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver?

    The Case For Number One: Who Is The Top Fantasy Football Wide Receiver? As the passing revolution has continued, the value of the absolute top wide receiver in fantasy football has increased. It used to be that the top running back was the prized jewel of fantasy football but now multiple wide receivers have justified…

  • Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade premium
    July 17, 2019
    Closing Window: Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys Before Training Camp

    Closing Window: Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys Before Training Camp We have taken a look at dynasty buys here on RotoExperts a few times over the offseason but now, it is game time. Dynasty fantasy football is about to get real. Training camp, injuries, preseason games, roster movement, all of the good stuff is going to…

  • Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019 Chris Godwin's Stock Rising, Eagles Alshon Jeffrey's Falling
    July 16, 2019
    Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019

    Three Ways The Passing Revolution Could Alter Fantasy Football In 2019 Last season, the NFL saw a total of  17,671 pass attempts or 34.5 for each team per game. In 2017, that number was 34.2. The average team scored 21.7 points per game in 2017, while the average team scored 23.3 points per game in…

  • Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019
    July 15, 2019
    Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019

    Justice Hill: Fantasy Football League-Winner In 2019 Every single year, fantasy football leagues are swung by rookie running backs. Saquon Barkley was drafted as a superstar but Phillip Lindsay was a UDFA in 2018. Nick Chubb exploded in the second half of the season after Carlos Hyde was traded. Even Sony Michel returned value after…