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The 2019 Post-Combine WR Success Model

The 2019 Post-Combine WR Success Model
Anthony Amico March 25, 2019 8:50AM EDT

Which 2019 WR Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed?

A couple of weeks ago, I released my post-combine RB success model, which gave the chance of success for the RB prospect group using logistic regression. It only makes sense to do the same thing with the WR position. Again, our goal is to find the likelihood that a player hits the 200 PPR point mark within three seasons.

The WR success model takes just three variables as inputs:

  1. Log of NFL Draft Scout Rank
  2. Adjusted Age
  3. Final Year Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt

You can find these data points explained in my WR statistic glossary.

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WR Success Model Results

Below are the results of the model for all FBS prospects ranked inside of the top 50 of NFL Draft Scout rankings.

NameSchoolDS RankAdjusted AgereyptpaSucces Prob
Andy IsabellaMassachusetts1421.24.330.65
NKeal HarryArizona State220.22.970.64
Marquise BrownOklahoma421.53.780.58
A.J. BrownMississippi320.72.990.53
J.J. Arcega-WhitesideStanford820.32.750.43
D.K. MetcalfMississippi1212.430.42
Greg DortchWake Forest2319.72.670.41
KeeSean JohnsonFresno State2720.63.050.36
Hakeem ButlerIowa State1122.63.650.29
LilJordan HumphreyTexas1320.72.470.27
Emanuel HallMissouri1821.62.940.23
Kelvin HarmonNorth Carolina State7222.560.18
Antoine WesleyTexas Tech3521.22.640.18
Dillon MitchellOregon4121.62.840.17
Damion WillisTroy4421.52.820.17
Parris CampbellOhio State521.41.90.15
Penny HartGeorgia State3120.72.060.15
David Sills VWest Virginia921.72.220.14
Deebo SamuelSouth Carolina622.12.180.13
Stanley Morgan Jr.Nebraska4321.42.490.13
Preston WilliamsColorado State4621.82.680.13
Mecole HardmanGeorgia1620.81.520.11
Gary Jennings Jr.West Virginia1921.82.250.11
Felton Davis IIIMichigan State49212.090.11
Damarkus LodgeMississippi2821.62.160.1
Darius SlaytonAuburn1221.91.940.09
Jaylen SmithLouisville3320.51.40.09
Miles BoykinNotre Dame1522.22.090.08
Anthony JohnsonBuffalo2223.12.70.08
Tyre BradyMarshall4822.82.460.06
Riley RidleyGeorgia1022.41.570.05
Travis FulghamOld Dominion2623.32.40.05
Jalen HurdBaylor3222.92.10.04
Cody ThompsonToledo3422.11.640.04
Tony PollardMemphis3021.71.110.03
Tyron JohnsonOklahoma State3722.91.720.03
Jamal CustisSyracuse4023.11.960.03
Hunter RenfrowClemson17231.070.02
Terry McLaurinOhio State2423.31.430.02
JonVea JohnsonToledo39231.670.02
Diontae JohnsonToledo4521.60.880.02
Xavier UbosiAlabama-Birmingham4724.82.840.02

The prospect given the best chance to succeed isn’t N’Keal Harry or D.K. Metcalf, it’s Andy Isabella out of UMass. Just one WR in my database had more receiving yards per team pass attempt than Isabella in his final season and didn’t go to Georgia Tech. That player was Dez Bryant. Isabella flashed 4.31 wheels at the Combine, and was extremely productive against Power 5 competition, including a 15/219/2 performance this year against Georgia. He is every bit the real deal, despite his small stature and school.

Harry is still rated highly by the model, just a percentage point behind Isabella. He is second in both Draft Scout rank and adjusted age, and was top six in receiving yards per team pass attempt. He is your prototypical top WR from a rookie draft perspective.

Marquise Brown and A.J. Brown make up the next tier, though the latter is more likely to go early in the draft. Hollywood had a serious foot injury to end his final season, making his status in question going forward given that his speed and explosiveness is a big part of his game. The Ole Miss product is an excellent chain-mover and found success on a team loaded with WR talent.

Metcalf finds himself fairly low based on his final season production, but the biggest red flag for him is probably the injuries that cost him his true freshman season and all but six games in 2018. It is worth noting that he played Brown to a draw when both were healthy this past season, and that his athletic profile gives Metcalf a fantastic ceiling.

Greg Dortch and KeeSean Johnson are attractive sleepers in this class. Though they have not received a ton of buzz from the scouting community, both players were productive at young ages as well as their final seasons. Dortch had a better athletic profile than Johnson, and has outstanding career production.

Hakeem Butler destroyed the Combine, and was very productive in his final season, but the scouts don’t seem to be buying in. Butler also did not break out until his age 22 season. There are some Josh Doctson-type of vibes here with Butler.

Emanuel Hall is a fun player that will likely contribute to an NFL offense even if he cannot find success for fantasy football. He averaged 20.8 yards per reception for his career, and ran a sub-4.4 forty yard dash at the Combine. He looks every bit the part of an NFL field-stretcher.

I continue to say that Paris Campbell is not an NFL WR. Though he tested very fast in the 40, Ohio State rarely, if ever, through the ball to him down the field.

Personally, I think Campbell is a RB at the next level in the mold of Theo Riddick. That makes him risky for fantasy purposes.

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