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Fantasy Golf: 2017 BMW Championship DFS Picks

Matt Rumack RotoExperts Fantasy Golf Analyst September 13, 2017 10:20PM EDT

Course: Conway Farms GC (Lake Forest, Illinois) 

Yardage: 7,208 yards – Par 71

Purse : 8.75M

Field: Top 70 players in FedEx Cup points to date

Recent BMW Championship Winners

2012 Rory McIlroy
2013 Zach Johnson
2014 Billy Horschel
2015 Jason Day
2016 Dustin Johnson

*2012 and 2016 tournaments were held at Crooked Stick Golf Club

Justin Thomas is at the top of his game lately and he’s only 24. AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

*2013 and 2015 tournaments were held at Conway Farms Golf Club

*2014 tournament was held at Cherry Hills Country Club

2017 BMW Championship Key Stats

Good Drive %

Birdie or better %

Strokes gained: Approach

Approach Proximity 100-125 yards

Recent Form

Anchors ($10K<)

Jordan Spieth ($11,800) & Justin Thomas ($10,300)

Jordan Spieth has finished runner-up in both playoff events while Justin Thomas’ last three finishes are first, sixth, and first. At age 24, it’s scary to think that both guys may not have even reached their full potential yet. Spieth and Thomas rank first and second in birdie or better percentage. Spieth gains the most strokes on the approach on Tour, while Thomas ranks sixth in that stat. For $1,500 more, Spieth has a higher floor, but the way Thomas is playing lately, he offers an equal ceiling for a cheaper price. They both have decent history at Conway Farms as well. Spieth and Thomas both finished T-13 in 2015, and in 2013 when only Spieth played this event, he finished T-16.

Upper Tier ($8,600-$9,900)

Jason Day ($9,600), Paul Casey ($9,200)

Jason Day has quietly been playing consistent golf over the last two months. His last five events he’s finished no worse than T-27 including two Top 10 finishes. His price continues to stay below his usual five-digit salary because he hasn’t met the lofty expectations that he set for himself during the 2015 and 2016 seasons. The last time this event was held at Conway Farms, Day blew the field away shooting 22-under and winning by six shots. Day is ranked 28th in the FedEx Cup standings. He should come out firing to make sure he stays inside that Top 30 by the end of the week.

Paul Casey is the high floor low ceiling candidate of this group. Casey still hasn’t found a win this season, despite finishing in the Top 10 six times with five of those finishes being sixth or better. Casey ranks second behind Spieth in strokes gained: approach, 18th in the field in birdies, and seventh in good drive percentage. In his one start at Conway Farms Casey finished a respectable T-23.

Mid-Tier ($7,500-$8,500)

Patrick Reed ($8,000), Kevin Na ($7,900), Daniel Berger ($7,500)

Patrick Reed is feeling good about his golf game lately after finishing runner-up at the PGA, T-20 at the Northern Trust, and T-6 at the Dell two weeks ago.  His course statistics and history at this course don’t blow you away (T-28, T-59), but when Reed is confident in his game, he can be well worth his value of $8,000.

Kevin Na doesn’t get the reputation of being a terrific ball striker. Na is most known for being a notoriously slow golfer who once shot a 16 on a hole after hacking his way through the woods. Don’t be fooled, though, Na ranked 10th on Tour this season in strokes gained: approach and ranks within the Top 25 in the field in birdies. Na is playing his best golf this season finishing T-6, T-29, and T-4 in his past three events. In his one appearance at Conway Farms in 2015, he had a very solid showing, finishing T-10.

Daniel Berger checks all the boxes you want to see for this week. He ranks Top 25 in birdies this season, ninth in strokes gained: approach, and is one of the best on Tour from 100-125 yards. If not for an incredible performance from Jason Day in 2015, Berger would have been a past champion at Conway Farms. He finished solo second six shots behind Day the last time this event was held here, and Berger is a better golfer today then he was two years ago.

Sleepers ($7,400 ≥)

Francesco Molinari ($7,400), Xander Schauffele ($6,900), Anirban Lahiri ($6,900)

Francesco Molinari is a great finesse iron player. As one of the shorter courses on the schedule this season Molinari will be lethal on approach shots from the short iron/wedge range. He ranks third in proximity in 100-125 yard shots and ninth on Tour in good drive percentage. Molinari should be in good position from his favorite striking range on a good number of holes this week.

Xander Schauffele has been one of the best players in this price range season. This is his chance to put a cherry on top of his solid rookie season, which included a win at the Greenbrier. Schauffele offers the highest upside of the six sub-7K players this week. He is inside the Top 25 in the field in birdies this season, and is one of the longest hitters on Tour.

Picking Anirban Lahiri is a gamble, as he’s capable of shooting any number under 80. But playing Daily Fantasy Sports always comes with some risk, and if you’re going to take one of the top prizes up top you’ll need to find some value at the bottom. Lahiri can provide that value if the good version of him shows up. He ranked 17th this season in birdies and ranks within the Top 25 in the field in approaches from 100-125 yards. He just snuck into the field as the last man, so he’ll be firing at pins all week long. He may not make it into the Tour Championship, but he’ll throw a few darts this week and outplay his $6,900 price tag.


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