2018 Genesis Open DFS Golf Picks for DraftKings Play
Course: Riviera Country Club (Pacific Palisades, California)
Yardage: 7,322 – Par 71
Purse: $7.2 M
Field: 156 players
Genesis Open Recent Champions
Par 4 Scoring
Strokes gained: approach
Approach Proximity 175-200 yards
It’s safe to say there is a ton of talent this week at Riviera. Looking back at past winners, there’s no clear-cut type of player who wins here. You have some bombers in Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson, and you have some shorter precision players like John Merrick, James Hahn, and Steve Stricker.
Still, at Par 71 playing 7,322 yards length will be more of a factor here than it was last week at Pebble. It’s safe to stack your lineup with players who hit it long off the tee (driving distance). With the drivable Par 4 10th and a very reachable Par 5 to start, the rest of the course plays very long, 10 of the 11 par 4s are 430-plus, six of which are 450 yards and longer.
With all the length on the Par 4s, Par 4 scoring will be where the money is made. The course is fairly forgiving off the tee as players have had plenty of success without hitting a high percentage of fairways, but you must be able to scramble well and stick your approaches from deep. Strokes gained: approach and approach proximity 175-200 yards will come in handy this week as somewhere in the area of six to nine holes will require shots from that length.
DFS Golf Picks With DraftKings Pricing
Dustin Johnson ($11,900) – At the top, I’ll keep it simple and take the best player in the world in Dustin Johnson. With the deep field that we have this week, spending a little extra on him is a no-brainer. DailyRoto’s Win Probability Tool has Johnson with a probability of defending his title over 01 percent. To put that in perspective, only three other players have a win probability above 5 percent (Spieth at 5.79% is second highest). At his last four official events, DJ has finished second, ninth, first, and second. In his last three trips to Riviera, he’s finished first, fourth, and second. He’s in great form right now and loves this playing at this course.
Matt Kuchar ($8,400) – It’s time for Kuuuuuuch to make a big splash this week. He has quietly been steady this season, without making any real waves. Kuch is one of the best Par 4 players on Tour, ranking in the Top 15 in Par 4 scoring this season. He’s also very comfortable playing here. His last two go-arounds he’s finished 22nd and eighth. Kuchar is the 13th highest priced player this week, but our DailyRoto Finish Probability tool gives him more value ranking him the ninth highest in Top-20 probability this week and 11th highest in win-probability.
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Chez Reavie ($8,000) – Chez Reavie is having a breakout year this season. He’s no newbie to the Tour, but at age 36 he’s on an early pace to have the best season of his career. Reavie has now recorded back-to-back runner-ups at the Waste Management Open and the AT&T Pro-Am. DraftKings keeps firing him out there at around 8K, so I’ll continue to play him until he cools off. At the very least, even when he’s “cooled off” his worst finish this season is T-36. Reavie is making a living knockin’ it down the fairway and onto the green. He’s eighth on Tour this year in strokes gained: approach, sixth in scrambling, seventh in Par 4 scoring, and ninth in approach shots from 175-200 yards. Keep rolling him out there until further notice.
Patrick Cantlay ($7,600) – Patrick Cantlay? $7,600? Sign me up. When players who are usually around the 8-9K range show up a good $1,000-1,500 lower, it usually means the player is playing at a course on which he struggles. Patrick Cantlay has never even played at Rivera CC, and he’s simply a player who can defy the odds. DailyRoto’s Lineup Optimizer has Cantlay as the highest value-play this week, and I would have to agree. Any time you can get Cantlay for a reasonable price, you should do so and never look back.
Cameron Smith ($7,100) – Cameron Smith is one of the younger up-and-coming players today. The 24-year-old Australian has finished inside the Top 20 in five of six PGA events this season. At $7,100 Smith has great upside as he’s shown this year. He’s a solid scrambler and a very good Par 4 player ranked 20th and 16th respectively in those categories. His track record at Riviera isn’t spectacular but he is two for two making the cut here. He’s playing his best golf ever and should make it three of three this week.
Bud Cauley ($6,700) – In the 6K range, one name blatantly stands out and it’s Bud Cauley. Standing at 5’ 7” Cauley is sneaky long with a 302′ average drive. He ranks within the top quarter of Tour players in strokes gained: approach, scrambling, and Par 4 scoring. Cauley has racked up three Top-15 finishes this year, yet stays at his low price unless he’s playing in a super-weak field. When looking at DailyRoto’s made-cut probability tool, Cauley stacks up alongside the mid to upper 7K players. According to the DailyRoto Lineup Optimizer, Cauley’s value for his price is just above Jordan Spieth, and just below Paul Casey and Justin Thomas.
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Patrick Cantlay Photo Credit: AP Photo/Michael Dwyer