DFS Picks for the 2018 Honda Classic
For the third time in the past five seasons, Bubba Watson left Riviera Country Club on top of the leaderboard. If it wasn’t clear already that he owns this course, it is now. Coming off a 2017 season with many struggles, Bubba Watson looks like he might be back to his old self. Kevin Na backed his way into a T2 after a great weekend. Tony Finau joined him in second as he looked like the favorite the whole tournament but still turned out to be a solid DK option.
Patrick Cantlay also had a great week with a T4 finish, although it looked like the tournament was his through 11 holes on Sunday. Either way, rating out as the top DraftKings value on the DailyRoto projections sure turned out well. Scott Stallings turned in another great outing with a T4 as well and was right in the mix on Sunday. Hopefully, you were able to add him a few weeks back when he was my “Mulligan of the Week,” because he is probably long gone after his performance at the Genesis Open.
Some notable missed cuts this weekend included Ollie Schniederjans, Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman, and Daniel Berger. Trusting heavily in Schniederjans and Berger did not pan out this week as they both looked like great plays on DraftKings. Leishman did not get a ton of hype leading into the Genesis but had not missed a cut all year. Same goes for Molinari. He rated out very well on DailyRoto but failed to make the cut for the first time this season. However, in such a deep field it is hard to expect all the top guys to make the cut.
This week the tour visits Palm Beach Gardens, Florida for the Honda Classic. Rickie Fowler, the defending champ, leads the way this week at $11,700 followed by Rory McIlroy ($11,500), Justin Thomas ($11,300), Sergio Garcia ($10,500), and Alex Noren ($10,100). Of the top five, it seems as if Alex Noren just does not fit in. He has the worst value of everyone above $10,000 on DailyRoto’s projection model and is a bit overpriced. When paying up this week, look to Rickie Fowler. Since the first of the year, Fowler has made two of three cuts and finished no worse than T11. He rates out as the second-best value on DailyRoto for DraftKings and has the best chance to make the cut (85.98%). Garcia and Thomas make for a nice play in cash games while McIlroy and Noren are best suited for tournaments.
In the next range of players from $8,000-$10,000, we find Europeans Tyrell Hatton ($9,500) and Tommy Fleetwood ($9,400) with the best odds of both winning and making the cut in this range. Though Fleetwood did not play here a year ago, he has already gotten his feet wet in the United States and is making his second straight start on Tour. He did make the cut last week resulting in a T37. Tyrell Hatton, on the other hand, is making his first start this week on US soil. Hatton did produce here last year with a T4 and made himself known to the Fantasy Golf universe. Both players make for very intriguing plays on DraftKings, and the price tags might scare some away. Fleetwood has a slight edge over Hatton since he has already been here a week. DailyRoto has Fleetwood projected to carry about five percent lower ownership than Hatton and this is a spot where we are able to differentiate our lineups.
Other players to target from this range:
Daniel Berger ($8,800) is coming in at a discounted price after failing to make the cut at the Genesis Open. Don’t give up yet. He lost in a playoff here in 2015.
Brandt Snedeker ($8,700) sets up nicely here at PGA National. He’s off to a nice start making three consecutive cuts.
Martin Kaymer ($8,000) has made three of four cuts at the Honda Classic with a T4 last year. He offers a nice floor in DraftKings at this price point.
Grillo & An Top Mid-Range Targets
This next range of players is where you’ll find the values this week. The pricing seems to be very soft from $7,000-$8,000 as there is no need to drop down any further this week. It might alter what you do towards the top, but this is the range to exploit. With so many interesting names in this range, it is tough to pinpoint which direction to go.
Power Rankings for @TheHondaClassic.
5. Rory McIlroy
4. Gary Woodland
3. Sergio Garcia
2. Justin Thomas
1. Rickie Fowler
Nos. 6-15 👇https://t.co/7VcyIXGB9z
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 19, 2018
According to the projection model on DailyRoto, Charles Howell III ($7,300), Adam Scott ($7,700), and Emiliano Grillo ($7,500) rate out as the top value plays from this range. With all three very much in play, Grillo is going to be the one to roll with this week. He has made the cut both times he has played here at the Honda Classic and has yet to miss a cut this season. Grillo is currently ranked ninth in Ball Striking and eighth in Total Driving this season. He only carries a 3.78 percent ownership projection on DailyRoto, so we shouldn’t expect too many people to be on him this week. He is a fine cash game play but even better as an under-owned tournament option. Charles Howell III and Adam Scott make for safe cash game options as we know their ability to make cuts. Scott comes in at a slightly lower value but seems more fit for the course. He has not finished worse than T14 here in his last three attempts. However, you cannot go wrong with either play here.
Byeong Hun An ($7,400) also makes for a nice play down in this range. An has a 65.09 percent chance to make the cut in DailyRoto’s Finish Probability model. He is currently ranked in the top five in both Ball Striking and Total Driving and 18th in Greens-in-Regulation. This is only Byeong Hun An’s second appearance since the first of the year. His first appearance was at the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he finished T23. Start your teams with Byeong Hun An and work from there as he should be a staple in cash games.
Mulligan of the Week
Making his first appearance this past week at the Genesis Open, the now 37th ranked player in the world made the cut in his first appearance. Although it only resulted in a T53, Li showed flashes of his upside all week. Still just 22 years old, Li is worth a flier just for the ceiling he provides. HaoTong Li shot up in the world ranking this year after his big win at the end of January in Dubai. This was an absolutely loaded field and he was able to finish at the top of the leaderboard. He will not be playing in a large number of events like past mulligans, but he has the game to win in any field that he enters.
Rickie Fowler Photo Credit: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin
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