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Using PAP to Identify Sluggers

Using PAP to Identify Sluggers premium
Cam Giangrande March 16, 2018 5:59PM EDT
Our own Jake Ciely is very proud of the pitching statistic he invented, SOBB. I too created a statistic, but for hitters. This is the fourth year of its existence and the fourth year I’ve written about it. I use it as one of my factors in determining who to target in my drafts.

It’s called PAP, which stands for plate appearance percentage. It quantifies how close a player gets himself around the bases every time he enters the batter’s box. A perfect PAP would be four; which is the total bases a batter gets for hitting a home run. A single is one total base, a double is two, and a triple is three. A walk doesn’t count in total bases so that needed to be added to my formula. And, I also added stolen bases, because someone who steals has gained a base, getting him closer to home without the help or assistance of any other player.  I only factor net stolen bases, though, because if a successful stolen base helps to get around the bases, getting caught hurts the team from scoring.

The formula looks daunting, (TB+(SB-CS) +BB)/PA…but it’s actually quite simple to figure out. Here’s an example: Last season, J.D. Martinez led MLB with a .725 PAP. He had 298 total bases. He walked 53 times. And, he stole four bases without getting caught. When you add those figures up, you get 355. Between the Tigers and Diamondbacks he had a total of 489 plate appearances. If you take 489 and divide it into 355 the total is .725 PAP. As a point of reference, Babe Ruth is the game’s all-time leader in PAP with a career mark of .740 PAP.

The bench mark to look at is .500 PAP. The lower a player is below that, the more you may want to stay away from him.

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