This Week’s Field Makes it Tough to Seemingly Justify High Spending
The first surprise win of the season occurred at the RBC Heritage. Though it shouldn’t be overly stunning when a player ranked inside of the Top 50 in the world wins, there were not too many people who were very familiar with Satoshi Kodaira. Into the clubhouse at -12 was enough to take Si Woo Kim into a playoff where Kodaira birdied the third playoff hole to win it. This week the tour returns to Texas for the Valero Texas Open. This tournament is played at TPC San Antonio, which stretches over 7,400 yards. With this being a longer, more challenging course, here are some stats that we will be focusing on:
Valero Texas Open Key Statistics
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- Sand Save Percentage
- Bogey Avoidance
- Driving Distance
Lock In Luke List
The top of the board on DraftKings is as ugly as it is going to get all year long. Sergio Garcia leads the way at $12,000 as the only player ranked inside the world’s Top 20. Following Garcia is Matt Kuchar ($11,400), Charley Hoffman ($10,900), Ryan Moore ($10,200), and Luke List ($10,000) rounding out the players above $10k on DraftKings. I have a hard time paying $7,500 for some of these guys, and now they are priced in the top tier due to the weak field.
That being said, List is the only one who you should be putting into consideration from this range. List has been playing as good as anyone and rates out very well at this site. He is currently 10th in SG: OTT, 26th in Bogey Avoidance, and fourth in Driving Distance. Since missing back-to-back cuts to start the season, List has made eight in a row with three Top 10s and no finishes outside of the Top 26. He has a win probability of 3.49%, which is good for third best in the field on DailyRoto. List also comes in with the best odds to make the cut at 74.22%. A win is coming soon for List, so don’t be a week too late and lock him into all of your DraftKings lineups.
This next range is where it gets a little tricky. It is tough to find any kind of value, since every player is priced above their actual skill levels. However, there is one exception at $8,400, where we find the 22nd ranked player in the world, Pat Perez. DailyRoto also agrees, as Perez is the best overall DK value on their projection model when factoring in long-term form, recent form, and course history. Looking at the players priced well above him makes it that much more intriguing to roster him. Coming off a missed cut at The Masters, Perez does not have to do much to pay off his price tag. He has played the event five times since 2008 and has an outstanding history. Perez has made all five cuts in the event, all resulting in Top 25s with two Top 10s (T20, T11, T5, T22, T8). DailyRoto’s probability model gives Perez the fifth-best odds to win (2.71%), which is the highest of anyone priced $9,500 and below. Perez is in play in both cash games and tournaments as he carries an ownership projection around 10%.
Brendan Steele ($8,900), a former winner of the event, is another option ranked fifth in SG: OTT and 11th in Driving Distance. He is the sixth best value on DailyRoto and also has the sixth best odds to win on the probability model.
Xander Schauffele comes in at a discount in this type of field at $8,800. Ranked 16th on tour in SG: OTT and 64th in Driving Distance, Schauffele comes in with the right game for TPC San Antonio. He is the 28th ranked player in the world and is a solid value under $9k.
Finding Value Below 8k
This is going to be the most important range of the week when building your roster on DK. If you want to pay up for two or three players at the top, this is the range you need to hit on. We saw Kodaira win last week priced under $7k and I would not be surprised to see someone from $7,000-$8,000 win this week.
Kevin Streelman ($7,700) is never really a threat to win, but always finds a way to make the cut. He is in good form coming off of a T7 finish at the RBC Heritage. Streelman has played the Valero five times with no missed cuts and three Top 20 finishes. He is the top-ranked player on tour in terms of Bogey Avoidance and 20th in SG: OTT. Streelman is a great DraftKings play as he is almost a lock to make the cut. He has a safe floor
Jason Kokrak ($7,400) has been inconsistent as of late but lines up well at Valero. Kokrak has made four of his last five cuts here with two Top 15s. He currently ranks in the Top 20 in both Driving Distance and Bogey Avoidance this season. Kokrak should not be very popular this week as DailyRoto projects his ownership to be under 7%. He is worth a look in cash games but is more suited for tournaments.
Keith Mitchell is also interesting at $7,400. He has been fairly reliable as of late, missing just one cut in his last eight events. Mitchell popped in the secondary tournament in Punta Cana with a solo second place finish, and followed that up with a T6 at the Houston Open. He is 15th in SG: OTT and 11th in Driving Distance thus far in the 2018 season. The rookie will tee it up for the first time at the Valero Texas Open this week.
Other Plays: J.B. Holmes ($7,800), Jamie Lovemark ($7,700), Julian Suri ($7,600), Nick Watney ($7,300), Tom Lovelady ($7,100), and Ben Martin ($6,800).
Luke List Featured Image: (AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)
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