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Webb Simpson Among Prime DFS Golf Picks for Wells Fargo Championship

Webb Simpson Among Prime DFS Golf Picks for Wells Fargo Championship
Matt Rumack May 2, 2018 11:19AM EDT

Your Top Recommended Choices for DraftKings This Week

More DFS Golf: Wells Fargo Championship Advance

Course: Quail Hollow Golf Course (Charlotte, North Carolina)

Yardage:  7,562 – Par 71

Purse : $7.7 M

Field: 156 players

*Past Wells Fargo Champions

2013 Derek Ernst
2014 J.B. Holmes
2015 Rory McIlory
2016 James Hahn
2017 Brian Harman (Eagle Point GC)

Justin Thomas ($11,300): When you look at the three players that cost 11K+, all three of them (Thomas, Rory McIlroy, and Rickie Fowler) have won at Quail Hollow. McIlroy and Fowler have both won Wells Fargo titles, while Thomas won last year at the PGA. I’m giving Thomas the edge for two reasons. First, overall he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the world. No one playing had a run with as many wins over an 18-month period outside of Tiger Woods a decade ago. My second reason is that he’s the only one of the three to have won at the newly-renovated Quail Hollow. The $500 discount from McIlroy doesn’t hurt either. Thomas’ odds of winning, according to our DailyRoto win probability model is 7.40%. The only other player to crack 5% is Jason Day (5.30%). That’s a significant difference, and worth spending up for.

Webb Simpson ($8,400): If you’ve watched this event over the past few years (excluding 2017), surely they’ve mentioned on the TV coverage that Webb Simpson is a member at Quali Hollow. The fact that many DFS players know this means he’ll be owned heavily this week, but that doesn’t mean you should shy away from him. Simpson presents a ton of upside at $8,400. He’s usually a lock to make the cut at Quail Hollow, and has finishes of T2 in 2015, and a fourth-place finish in 2012. He just so happens to be playing great golf lately too. He finished fifth at the RBC Heritage for his third Top 10 finish in his last five events.

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Emiliano Grillo ($7,700): It feels like before the year is up Grillo is going to break through and win his first event since the Frys.com Open in 2015. Grillo has made all 13 cuts this season, including four Top 10s and eight Top 30 finishes. Grillo is projected as a Top 10 value this week by DailyRoto’s value optimization. Although, he had a tough time at this course in the PGA Championship, his game appears to be fit for course. Grillo ranks 16th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and is seventh on Tour in Par 3 scoring.

Byeong-Hun An ($7,600): I’m encouraged by the fact that Benny An finished T28 last year at the PGA Championship. An struggles with his putter, and the major championship conditions are put out there to exploit weaknesses like that, yet he was still able to put together a very respectable week. An is a terrific ball striker, ranking 12th in strokes gained: off-the-tee, and hits a long ball averaging 305.5 yards per drive (23rd). What he lacks on the greens won’t be exposed as much under regular Quail Hollow conditions, and he should have an easy time getting around with his terrific tee and ironplay.

Francesco Molinari ($7,400): Take a long look at the golfers in the low-mid 7K range. There are a bunch of great options to choose from, but unless you’re going to solely pick golfers from that price range (not recommended) you’ll have to settle for two or three players from here. Of all of the 7K range players, Molinari is the highest value according to DailyRoto’s value optimization, and he’s the fifth best value overall. Molinari proved his upside by finishing runner-up to Justin Thomas at Quail Hollow in the PGA Championship last year. He’s been steady this season, but Molinari fans are still waiting for him to have that breakout week. There’s a good chance of this being the week. Molinari is a beast off the tee, gaining nearly an entire stroke per round there (6th). He’s longer than the average Tour player (300.6 yards/46th), and a solid par 3 player (33rd in scoring average).  Molinari will look to repeat his performance from last year, and maybe finish one spot higher.

Luke List ($7,400): He has been on of the best players on Tour this season, currently ranking 11th in FedEx cup points. He’s certainly leading the conversation for most improved player this year. After a third place finish at the RBC, List disappointed his owners (myself included) who took him at the Valero Texas Open, missing the cut that week. Don’t let that get you down on him. Everyone has an off-week, and Quail Hollow should be a great setup for him. List is the third longest hitter on Tour (314.5 yards) and this is a course that allows you to hit driver nearly every hole. He should be able to reach the three par 5s with ease, and turn the nine par 4s that play over 450 yards into driver/9 iron, driver/wedge holes.

Key Stats

Strokes gained: off-the-tee

Driving Distance

Par 3 Scoring

Birdie or Better % 400-450 yards

Webb Simpson Featured Image: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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