Your Prime DFS Picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson
Course: Trinity Forest (Dallas, Texas)
Yardage: 7,380 – Par 71
Purse : $7.5 M
Field: 152 players
*Past AT&T Byron Nelson Champions
|2013||Sang Moon Bae|
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Par 4 Scoring
Jordan Spieth ($11,900 on DraftKings): Spieth still hasn’t registered a win yet this season, but all of the numbers are pointing to this being the week for him to end that drought. Dailyroto’s win probability model has him at a whopping 13.03%, with Sergio Garcia (4.64%) about 20 furlongs back. On top of being the best golfer in the field, Spieth, a member at Trinity Forest, is getting as close to a home game as possible in professional golf. Spieth really hasn’t been that far off his game this year, as evidenced by his 64 on Sunday at the Masters, and his impressive Friday and Saturday at the PLAYERS. He just hasn’t put together four solid rounds yet.
Marc Leishman ($9,100): Marc Leishman’s price strikes me as way too low for this strength of field. At just $9,100, the three golfers priced directly above him, Adam Scott, Branden Grace, Jimmy Walker, have combined for the same amount of Top 10 finishes this year as Leishman (6). He has been striking the ball just fine, the problem last week at the PLAYERS was his putter, which can vary more from week to week than ball striking metrics. Leishman ranks sixth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and second in Par 4 scoring. Leishman has a 28.17% chance to log his seventh Top 10 of the season, and should contend beyond that this week.
Johnson Wagner ($7,500): If you’re dropping nearly 12K on Spieth, than we’re going to have to get creative with our picks. Johnson Wagner, previous holder of the best mustache on Tour, has been playing consistently, and steadily improving as the year goes along. Wagner, has made five cuts in a row, including back to back Top 20s at the Valero Texas Open (20th) and the Wells Fargo (13th). The way Wagner has improved this year, it’s not crazy to think he can find his way into the Top 10 this week.
J.J. Spaun ($7,400): Spaun is my boom-or-bust guy, and I’m predicting this to be his boom week. Spaun missed the cut last week at the PLAYERS by just one shot, while losing over five shots on the greens in two days. his ball striking has not been the problem at all. Spaun ranks fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, behind only Scott Piercy, Jordan Spieth, and Sergio Garcia, ninth in the field in Par 4 scoring, and he’s number one in the field in approach proximity from 200-225 yards. If Spaun can putt anywhere close to the field average, he’ll make the cut easily this week.
Kevin Na ($7,200): He is the no-brainer value pick at this price. Perhaps the DraftKings salary analysts don’t see this as a good course fit for him, but DailyRoto has him as the fifth best value overall, and the 12th most likely to win (1.61%). If you need a few players in this price range, I don’t see how you can pass over Na. He hasn’t had the best year by his standards, but he’s far more talented than the majority of 7K range golfers. Over his past five rounds, has not shot above 72.
Andrew Putnam ($6,900): In the 6K range, sometimes it seems like you’d be better off closing your eyes and pointing. Andrew Putnam can give you more confidence than that. He’s logged two Top 10s in his last four events, and hs made the cut in all four of those starts. Putnam looks good on the stat sheet as well, ranking in the Top 30 in the field in Strokes gained: tee-to-green, 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 15th in approach proximity from 200-225 yards.
Others to like: Sergio Garcia, Peter Uihlein, Grayson Murray, Joaquin Niemann, Martin Laird, John Huh
Kevin Na Featured Image: (AP Photo/Chuck Burton)