Lineup Building Targets for the AT&T Byron Nelson
There was not too much to watch this past weekend at The Players, as Webb Simpson absolutely dusted the entire field in his first win since 2013. Shooting an even par on Sunday was sufficient enough to hold off those chasing him thanks to his comfortable lead. Just like last year, the top tier players all came with a made cut and decent outcome, but we did not see many of them inside of the Top 10.
This week, the AT&T Byron Nelson is being played at a new venue. It will be the first time that Trinity Forest Golf Club will play host to a PGA Tournament. That being said, course history is a non-factor for the first time this season. With not much knowledge on the course as a whole, it is hard to gather key stats. However, I will be looking to recent form, and overall value in the pricing throughout DraftKings this week. There are so many question marks heading into this week so it is going to be difficult to predict which type of player is a good fit. This week puts you in a spot where you will be able to roster (just about) whoever you want.
- Proximity to the hole
- SG: Around the Green
- Recent Form
Spieth Clear Favorite in Hometown Event
Just by looking at the field as a whole, it is obvious that Jordan Spieth ($11,900) is the favorite. He is a member at Trinity Forest Golf Club in his hometown of Dallas, Texas. As tempting as it is to fade him, this price is not all that bad. Being far and away the class of the field and the heaviest favorite we have seen all year, Spieth is more than affordable. The only issue with rostering him at $11,900 is that you will need a high finish out of him. Players under $7k do not offer much value this week, and once you plug in Spieth, you are left with just over $7,600 per spot for your last five holes. We have to assume that his first win of the year is coming sooner rather than later, so you are not going to want to miss it. DailyRoto currently has Spieth’s ownership projection at almost 37% and is also their top value on the board. Though he is more of a cash game play than a tournament play, if you truly believe that Spieth can lap the field, roll him out in all formats.
Matsuyama, Grace Lead the Way as Second Tier Plays
Ownership Projections from DailyRoto.com’s PGA Projections.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,900) – 11.39% Ownership Projection
He’s got to heat up eventually, right? Ever since returning from injury, Matsuyama has not been playing very well. He missed the cut at The Players last week and was an MDF for the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship a week prior to that. However, we know what type of player he is and it is one that should be able to contend at this links-style course. He has good distance off of the tee, can strike his irons well, and can put it close as he is currently fourth in SG: Around the Green. Matsuyama has never been the best putter, but it might not matter all that much this week. His missed cut last week will have many people off him, leaving the ninth ranked player in the world under-owned. $9,900 is a fair price if you are reflecting that onto where his game is currently at, but if you look at it compared to this field, he is underpriced.
Branden Grace ($9,400) – 20.25% Ownership Projection
When you hear “links-style course,” Grace should be one of the first names that pops in your head. Maybe it’s just because he is one of the few big-name Europeans that is playing this week, but he seems to be in a nice spot. As you can see on DraftKings, Grace is 15/15 this year in terms of making cuts, which is why his ownership is expected to be over 20%. Although most of these are Euro Tour events that he is playing in, most of the public really won’t be able to tell the difference. Grace is riding a wave of six consecutive made cuts this year on the PGA Tour with his best finish being a T8 at the Valspar Championship. Rostering both Grace and Matsuyama is very doable this week, but I view Grace as more of a cash game play.
Where is the Value Below $7,600?
Now that you have the high-end plays, let’s dig into some options below $7,600. Why $7,600, you might ask? Well, if you are starting your team with Jordan Spieth, or if you start with the Combination of Matsuyama and Grace, you are left with an average salary just above $7,600. As I mentioned earlier, there is not great value under $7,000 like we normally see as everyone’s price has increased due to the field. This is a range that is going to be crucial in tournaments because ownership is going to be so spread out.
Bill Haas ($7,500) – 12.89% Ownership Projection
This one comes with a little bit of name value. We have seen Haas win on tour many times before and know he can be a reliable option. Not having his greatest of seasons, he is still playing good around the greens. Haas has not missed more than six cuts in a single season since 2010 and is already at five MC’s so far this year (two consecutive). DailyRoto has Bill Haas rated as the second best overall value from anyone priced below $7,600. Though he does not come into Trinity Forest with the best form, Bill Haas is a steal in this weak field at just $7,500.
Talor Gooch ($7,300) – 2.85% Ownership Projection
First off, what a name. Gooch had his ups and downs all season, but has showed up on some leaderboards throughout the course of the year. He does have some inconsistencies in terms of cut making, but this is normal for rookies. Gooch has made just three cuts in his last seven events, but all of them have been T26 or better. For some reason, he is always showing up on Thursdays opening round near the top of the leaderboard, and slowly fading away. If Gooch can put four whole rounds together, he might be a name you will be seeing around at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Andrew Putnam ($6,900) – 13.17% Ownership Projection
I have been on Putnam for the majority of the year because of what he was able to do on the Web.com Tour a season ago. This week, it seems like he is going to be a popular play at just $6,900. After a stretch of three straight missed cuts in the beginning of February, Putnam has made his last four. This streak started with his T5 in the weakest field of the season at Punta Cana but his game has been trending upward ever since.
David Hearn ($6,800) – 2.61% Ownership Projection
Want a sneaky tournament play? Well here it is. Playing the 2018 season on Conditional Status, David Hearn is coming off of his best finish in his T16 at the Valero Texas Open. He also finished T10 in New Orleans for the team event with Seamus Power ($7,300) a few weeks back. Hearn is currently ranked second in Proximity to the Hole and that could come up big this week at Trinity Forest. Hearn is a tournament play only.
Bill Haas Featured Image: (AP Photo/John Raoux)
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