DFS Lineup Advice and Building for Fort Worth Invitational
Aaron Wise gained his first win of his young career this past week at the AT&T Byron Nelson. The 21-year-old held strong on Sunday paired up with No. 16 in the world, Marc Leishman. While the field was not the strongest we have seen all year, it was a great win for the rookie. This week we move our focus to the Fort Worth Invitational, played at Colonial Country Club, where Kevin Kisner is the defending champ. Being an Invitational, we do not see a normal sized field. That being said, the cut rule remains the same, so it is important to have all six of your DraftKings plays make the cut.
- SG: Approach the Green
- SG: Putting
- Ball Striking
This week, the Fort Worth Invitational features a fairly strong field. Jordan Spieth leads the way this week at $11,700 in a very good spot. Spieth has seen success here at Colonial with a win and two T2’s in his last three starts to go along with two Top 15’s in his first two appearances. When you sort DailyRoto’s Projection Model strictly by course history, Spieth comes in at the second best value. He is a strong play in all formats, even considering the high price point. Following Spieth is Jon Rahm priced at $11,000. Rahm had a T2 finish in his first appearance at Colonial last season and is DailyRoto’s third best DK value. Even though I cannot argue against Rahm, if you want to pay up, lean towards Spieth.
Fowler Hot, Rose Not
Justin Rose is the first player below $11k priced at $10,600 followed by Rickie Fowler ($10,400), and Webb Simpson ($10,200). Not having played the event since 2010, it is easy to overlook Rose up in this range. I fully expect him to be the most under-owned player in this range and will be a nice pivot in this top tier. On the other hand, Fowler should be the most popular, as he presents a nice discount off Spieth and Rahm. DailyRoto rates out Fowler as the fifth best value and gives him the third best chance to win at 4.99 percent. I don’t see Fowler’s ownership surpassing 25 percent this week, and he has a nice floor at just $10,400. Surprisingly enough, Webb Simpson carries the highest projected ownership in the $10k-plus range. Coming off of a dominant performance at The Players Championship two weeks back, Simpson finds himself amongst the top tier of players. That is the sole reason that we find Simpson priced above $10k. He does have the course history to back it up as he has finished inside of the Top 5 in each of the past two years at Colonial. However, this is an inflated price and Simpson should be a fade in all formats.
Don’t Miss Out on Cantlay
Patrick Cantlay ($9,000) is not going to get a win without me rostering him. I have been on him for too long and he is in much too good of a spot to fade him. Colonial fits his game well as he ranks 38th in SG: Approach, and 21st in Ball Striking. DailyRoto has Cantlay as their second best value on DraftKings this week. His only missed cut this season was at The Masters. Since then, he has two Top 25 finishes, which include a T7 at the RBC Heritage. If Cantlay can get the putts to fall this week, he could be in for a nice finish.
Adam Hadwin is a cash game lock this week at just $7,600 on DraftKings. He has the track record to back it up at Colonial having made three cuts in his three attempts (T53, T22, T5). DailyRoto gives Hadwin the best odds to make the cut of anyone $7,800 and below. Their projection model rates him out as the fourth best overall value on the board. You can sort the model anyway you want, whether it be course history, or recent form, Hadwin shows up inside the Top 10. DailyRoto projects him to be the second highest owned player on the board. However, I am willing to eat the chalk this week at the Fort Worth Invitational.
Pat Perez ($7,300) not only seems to rate out well just about every week, but he always comes in under priced. Still being ranked inside of the Top 25 in the world ranking, it is obvious that he is a nice value being priced down in this range. Though he has not been playing the greatest as of late, missing his last three cuts, Perez played very well with Jason Dufner in the team event. DailyRoto has his ranked as their sixth best value on the board. The Finish Probability model gives Perez a 1.89 percent chance to win, which is better than everyone priced under $8,500 aside from Steve Stricker (for some reason). Even at this discounted price, do not expect Perez to be very popular this week and take advantage of him at this price point.
Wesley Bryan ($6,600) comes in this week at the bare minimum price. Though he has not had the sophomore year that most expected, I believe this is the spot where Bryan bounces back. He got off to a slow start to his rookie season last year and then went on a hot streak, so why can’t it happen again? In a week where having all six of your players make the cut, Bryan can be a scary play; don’t get me wrong. However, rostering him at just $6,600 allows you the freedom to take a few players at the top and work from there. Bryan played at Colonial last year and finished T48. At this price point, that is all he has to bring to the table this week.
Low Owned Tournament Options
Ownership Projections from DailyRoto.com
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,400) – 3.78% Projected Ownership
Overlooked in this range, world-class player.
Cam Smith ($7,500) – 6.13% Projected Ownership
A bit underpriced, cut maker.
Sam Burns ($7,200) – 5.21% Projected Ownership
Third in SG: Putting. DailyRoto’s 10th best value on DK.
Harris English ($7,100) – 1.94% Projected Ownership
Four straight cuts made at Colonial with two Top 5’s.
Main Image Credit: AP Photo/John Raoux
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