Your prime DFS picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic
Course: TPC Southwind (Memphis, Tennessee)
Yardage: 7,244 – Par 70
Purse : $6.6 M
Field: 152 players
*Past FedEx St. Jude Classic Champions
Henrik Stenson ($10,400 on DraftKings) Great ball strikers like Henrik Stenson love courses where the greens are more difficult to hit. Stenson leads the PGA Tour in GIR percentage and it’s not even close. Stenson has hit just under 74.79% percent of the greens in regulation this season, Jordan Spieth is a distant second at a 71.98%.To gauge how big of a disparity that is, three percent behind Spieth would be 36th in greens hit. Stenson is already one of the best three players in the field, with greens hit at a premium this week, that just widens his advantage. DailyRoto’s value optimization has Stenson as the second-best value overall this week, despite the high price tag.
Tony Finau ($9,300) Finau is another top value-play this week, coming at 6th on DailyRoto’s value rankings. In the 2017-18 season Tony is pretty much a guaranteed Top 30 finisher. In his 15 events entered this year he’s finished inside the Top 30 11 times. In this uber-weak field he’s a good bet to finish inside the Top 10, and can certainly win this week. Finau gains strokes everywhere from Tee-to-Green. His putting is the one club that keeps him from posting Top 10s every week, but putting is a lot more variable than ball striking. If he putts slightly above average, he can make a real run at winning his second PGA Tour event.
Luke List ($8,300) At $8,300 Luke List is a solid bargain in this field. The way he’s been playing this year I’d expect him to be a low 9K player. List has registered a Top 10 finish in every month of 2018, except for January, when his best finish was T12. He gains a ton of strokes off the tee, ranking 4th on Tour, and is a solid Par 4 player ranking 30th in Par 4 scoring. DailyRoto’s win probability model has List at the 8th best odds of winning this week (2.28%), despite only being the 17th highest salary in the field.
Chris Kirk ($8,000) In this price range, I’m looking for a consistent option with some decent upside. Kirk fits the bill, making the cut in all but one tournament since early February, and he also has six Top 13 finishes to his name this season. He ranks 26th in strokes gained: approach, and is above average in every other key stat I have picked out this week.
Stewart Cink ($6,800) In this weak field Stew is the old reliable safe bet to make the cut and make a run at a solid finish. DailyRoto’s value optimizer has Cink as the best low-price option, ranking as the 9th best value, and the highest value of players under $7,500. Cink finished T10 at this site last year, so this is a course he’s certainly comfortable at. Cink does his damage from the fairway, ranking 42nd in GIR percentage, and 13th in strokes gained: approach-the-green.
Nicholas Lindheim ($6,800) In the deep sleeper, low-owned category, taking a shot with Nicholas Lindheim is the one “gamble” I recommend this week. He’s only made 50% of his cuts this year, but Lindheim is starting to show some consistency, finishing inside the Top 40 in four of his last five tournaments. Lindheim is above average in hitting greens in regulation, and his biggest strength is making birdies on Par 4s where he ranks 18th on Tour, a good trait to have on a course with 12 par 4s. If he can stay away from extended bogey trains or big numbers, he should make the cut and log another Top 40 finish.
Strokes gained: off-the-tee
Strokes gained: approach
Par 4 scoring
Par 4 birdie or better percentage
Luke List Featured Image: (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)